Skip to main content
Livermore
Livermore
ZHEN

High Probability Advisors, LLC

SEC CIK
0002039415
Latest filing
Jul 13, 2026

The latest 13F from High Probability Advisors, LLC covers Q2 2026 (filed Jul 13, 2026): 75 long positions worth $935.0M. The top 10 holdings make up 66.4% of the portfolio, and the largest is Goldman Sachs ETF Tr at 12.5%. Livermore has 22 filings on Form 13F from this institution, going back to Q1 2021.

What changed in Q2 2026

Share counts compared with Q1 2026: how many positions were new, added to, reduced or sold out, and the biggest buys and sells. Dollar amounts are estimated at the quarter-end prices implied by the filing.

Full comparison
New
10
Est. +$2.47M
Added
34
Est. +$58.8M
Reduced
15
Est. −$667.8K
Sold out
2
Est. −$386.0K

Top 5 holdings

Share of this quarter's portfolio value

  1. Goldman Sachs ETF Tr381430503
    12.5%$117.3M
  2. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF46432F396
    11.8%$110.4M
  3. Dimensional ETF Trust25434V831
    7.2%$67.2M
  4. BlackRock ETF Trust09290C103
    6.4%$59.9M
  5. iShares Tr464288323
    5.5%$51.5M

Biggest buys

New and added positions, by estimated amount bought

  1. iShares Tr464288323
    +$9.75MAdded
  2. Schwab Intermediate-Term US Treasury ETF808524854
    +$7.44MAdded
  3. Goldman Sachs ETF Tr381430503
    +$5.47MAdded
  4. Dimensional ETF Trust25434V831
    +$3.86MAdded
  5. Goldman Sachs ETF Tr381430107
    +$3.38MAdded

Largest weight increases

New and added positions, by percentage points of the portfolio gained

  1. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF46432F396
    +2.15 pp9.7% → 11.8%
  2. iShares Tr464288323
    +0.24 pp5.3% → 5.5%
  3. BlackRock ETF Trust09290C103
    +0.22 pp6.2% → 6.4%
  4. American Centy ETF Tr025072604
    +0.15 pp2.8% → 3.0%
  5. Goldman Sachs ETF Tr381430602
    +0.12 pp1.5% → 1.7%

Biggest sells

Reduced and sold-out positions, by estimated amount sold

  1. IAUiShares Gold Trust
    −$238.5KSold outHistory
  2. TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
    −$203.9KReducedHistory
  3. Tortoise Capital Series Trus890930209
    −$147.5KSold out
  4. BNLBroadstone Net Lease, Inc.
    −$102.0KReducedHistory
  5. MSFTMicrosoft Corp
    −$88.0KReducedHistory

Largest weight decreases

Reduced and sold-out positions, by percentage points of the portfolio lost

  1. IAUiShares Gold Trust
    −0.03 pp<0.1% → 0.0%History
  2. MSFTMicrosoft Corp
    −0.03 pp0.1% → 0.1%History
  3. Tortoise Capital Series Trus890930209
    −0.02 pp<0.1% → 0.0%
  4. BNLBroadstone Net Lease, Inc.
    −0.02 pp0.1% → 0.1%History
  5. Dimensional U.S. Core Equity 2 ETF25434V708
    −0.01 pp0.2% → 0.1%

Metrics

13F metrics for Q2 2026, computed only from the numbers in the filings. Definitions below.

Portfolio value
$935.0M
+$153.6M (+19.7%) vs. prior quarter
Positions
75
+8 vs. prior quarter
Top 10 concentration
66.4%
Top 10 as share of value
Turnover
0.1%
Q2 2026, one quarter
Average holding period
18.5 quarters
Weighted by value

How these are calculated

  • Portfolio value: the market value of all long positions in the 13F, as reported at quarter end, excluding options.
  • Top 10 concentration: the combined value of the 10 largest positions as a share of portfolio value.
  • Turnover: the smaller of this quarter's estimated purchases and estimated sales, divided by the average of this and last quarter's portfolio value. Estimates multiply the change in shares by the quarter-end price implied by the filing (market value divided by shares); new positions use this quarter's value and sold-out positions last quarter's. Only positions reported in shares count, and it is not calculated when the previous quarter was not filed.
  • Average holding period: how many consecutive quarters each current position has been held (including this one; a quarter without the position or without a filing starts the count over), weighted by this quarter's value. Counting starts with the first 13F in Livermore (Q1 2021), so positions held before then are understated.

13F filings by quarter

22 quarters, going back to Q1 2021. Bars show each quarter's 13F portfolio value; quarters without a filing are left blank.

Peak $935.0M (Q2 2026)

Q1 2021: $189.6MQ2 2021: $236.6MQ3 2021: $246.8MQ4 2021: $269.3MQ1 2022: $306.1MQ2 2022: $315.8MQ3 2022: $319.5MQ4 2022: $365.3MQ1 2023: $428.1MQ2 2023: $466.0MQ3 2023: $463.9MQ4 2023: $495.6MQ1 2024: $539.1MQ2 2024: $551.5MQ3 2024: $587.2MQ4 2024: $557.8MQ1 2025: $599.6MQ2 2025: $668.7MQ3 2025: $729.3MQ4 2025: $749.9MQ1 2026: $781.4MQ2 2026: $935.0M
Q1 2021Q2 2026
13F filings of High Probability Advisors, LLC by quarter
QuarterFiledPositionsValueTop 3 holdingsChangesFiling
Q2 2026Jul 13, 202675$935.0MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q1 2026SEC
Q1 2026Apr 13, 202667$781.4MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q4 2025SEC
Q4 2025Jan 29, 202673$749.9MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q3 2025SEC
Q3 2025Oct 14, 202565$729.3MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q2 2025SEC
Q2 2025Jul 9, 202560$668.7MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q1 2025SEC
Q1 2025Apr 16, 202555$599.6MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q4 2024SEC
Q4 2024Jan 17, 202555$557.8MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q3 2024SEC
Q3 2024Nov 12, 202457$587.2MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q2 2024SEC
Q2 2024Nov 14, 202454$551.5MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q1 2024SEC
Q1 2024Nov 14, 202456$539.1MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q4 2023SEC
Q4 2023Nov 14, 202454$495.6MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q3 2023SEC
Q3 2023Nov 14, 202451$463.9MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q2 2023SEC
Q2 2023Nov 14, 202447$466.0MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q1 2023SEC
Q1 2023Nov 14, 202443$428.1MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q4 2022SEC
Q4 2022Nov 14, 202444$365.3MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q3 2022SEC
Q3 2022Nov 14, 202442$319.5MGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF TrustGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q2 2022SEC
Q2 2022Nov 14, 202444$315.8MGoldman Sachs ETF TrGoldman Sachs ETF TrDimensional ETF Trustvs. Q1 2022SEC
Q1 2022Nov 14, 202445$306.1MGoldman Sachs ETF TrGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETFvs. Q4 2021SEC
Q4 2021Nov 14, 202441$269.3MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares TrGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q3 2021SEC
Q3 2021Nov 14, 202439$246.8MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares TrGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q2 2021SEC
Q2 2021Nov 14, 202439$236.6MGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares TrGoldman Sachs ETF Trvs. Q1 2021SEC
Q1 2021Nov 14, 202434$189.6MGoldman Sachs ETF TrGoldman Sachs ETF TriShares Tr–SEC