管理層發言
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Woodward, Inc. Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this call is being recorded for rebroadcast. Joining us today from the company are Chip Blankenship, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Bill Lacey, Chief Financial Officer; and Daniel Provaznik, Director of Investor Relations. I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Provaznik.
Thank you, operator. We would like to welcome all of you to Woodward's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call. In today's call, Chip will comment on our strategies and related markets. Bill will then discuss our financial results as outlined in our earnings release. At the end of the presentation, we will take questions. For those who have not seen today's earnings release and presentation materials, you can find them on our website at woodward.com. A webcast of this call will be available on our website for 1 year. All references to years in this call are references to the company's fiscal year unless otherwise stated, and all comparisons are to the prior year unless otherwise stated. I would like to highlight our cautionary statement as shown on Slide 2 of the presentation materials. As always, elements of this presentation are forward looking, including our guidance and are based on our current outlook and assumptions for the global economy and our businesses more specifically. Those elements can and do frequently change. Our forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties surrounding those elements including the risks we identify in our filings with the SEC. These statements are made as of today, and we do not intend to update them except as required by law. In addition, we are providing certain non-U.S. GAAP financial measures. We direct your attention to the reconciliations of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures, which are included in today's slide presentation and our earnings release. We believe this additional financial information will help in understanding our results. Now I'll turn the call over to Chip.
Thank you, Dan, and good evening to everyone joining us for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm pleased to report that Woodward delivered another outstanding quarter, marked by strong financial and operational performance. This continued momentum is the result of focused and disciplined execution by our global team as we deliver on strong customer demand for our products and services across our aerospace and industrial markets. In the quarter, Woodward sales grew 21% year-over-year and adjusted EPS increased 43%. We delivered significant margin expansion, primarily driven by pricing actions. We are also seeing productivity gains from our lean transformation start to flow through our factories and improve margins. Industrial sales were up 26% in the quarter, and the team did an excellent job leveraging fixed costs as volume increased across all primary markets. Aerospace sales were up 19% with commercial OEM keeping pace with airframer build rates, sustained commercial services growth and strength in defense services. As we move through the final quarter of the year, we are well positioned to deliver on anticipated growth across our markets. The growth trajectory in Aerospace was reinforced last week at the Farnborough Airshow. In the many years I've attended the show, I can't remember another time when the industry remained so calm and collected during a period of such significant growth for current generation products and services. Several big aircraft orders were announced at the show. Commercial OEM and services outlooks are strong, and there is a sense that defense demand could also accelerate. All of this was taken in stride as airframers and engine OEMs look to component and service providers like Woodward to maintain focus and deliver on the demand created by the growing backlog. In this high-growth environment, it is helpful that supply chain visibility and predictability continue to improve. Disruptions haven't totally gone away, but we are working together with our suppliers and customers to manage through them. During Airshow Week, we announced a partnership with HAECO, establishing the third elite license service facility for Woodward LRUs on the CFM LEAP engine. This is an important step for our airline customers throughout Greater China and the Asia Pacific region. Our services capacity strategy is well defined for the next several years, and we're now focused on executing that strategy to stay ahead of growing customer demand. On the topic of capacity, we celebrated the recent completion of the expansion of our Industrial segment high-speed fuel injection value stream in Glatten, Germany. The expanded production capacity is already supporting growing demand, particularly from Rolls-Royce's mtu Solutions division serving power generation applications. I enjoyed being in Glatten with customers, community partners and our amazing team members who completed this complex project on schedule, on budget and without disrupting customer deliveries. It's a great example of how we're expanding capacity while maintaining the operational discipline our customers expect. We've also announced additional footprint optimization decisions to support future growth and improve efficiency. This includes the decision to close our recently acquired electronic products facility in Canada and transfer production and engineering to existing Woodward facilities in Poland and Bulgaria. We're working through the transition and being thoughtful and respectful with our members. This move will generate meaningful cost synergies while improving the returns on our THSA and related electromechanical product portfolio acquisition. We also decided to move one of our Niles JDAM production lines to our new Spartanburg facility to strengthen supply continuity for customers, provide flexibility and support future growth. Earlier, I mentioned that we're starting to see productivity gains flow through our factories. One area of significant progress is our automation journey. Those of you who visited our Rock Cut facility saw the deburring cobots in action. This technology has become a platform for us, and we are deploying it across Woodward plants. In another automation success story, we are working with a supplier to integrate machining, inspection, loading and unloading into a lights-out cell for key fuel nozzle parts. This will deliver capacity for our GTF high-volume line as well as efficiency and risk reduction. Our automation investment objectives are fourfold: expand capacity, increase productivity and enable growth as well as reduce our direct labor hiring demand. We are targeting a reduction of approximately 1,000 incremental hires by 2029, in many cases, by automating repetitive, less desirable work. This represents about 50% of our projected hiring needs in that time frame, equally weighted by attrition and growth. As with our lean transformation, this is not about replacing people. We will continue hiring to support growth and manage attrition. We'll just need fewer new hires, and we will gain long-term workforce efficiencies. Tying all this together from disciplined execution to investments in capacity and automated processes, we are on an exciting path for long-term growth and margin expansion. Based on a strong third quarter and confidence that we will continue to execute well in the fourth quarter, we are raising our earnings guidance for 2026. Now over to you, Bill.
Thank you, and good evening, everyone. As Chip mentioned, Q3 was an outstanding quarter. We achieved record performance in a number of areas. Net sales were $1.1 billion, an increase of 21%, reflecting strong demand and increased output in both Aerospace and Industrial. We achieved earnings per share of $2.40 compared to $1.76. Adjusted earnings per share were slightly better at $2.52, also compared to $1.76. Free cash flow was $87 million, bringing our year-to-date total to $196 million for an increase of 23%. At the segment level, Aerospace sales for the third quarter were $709 million, an increase of 19%. The strong growth was primarily driven by commercial Aerospace. Commercial OEM sales increased 34% with our output generally aligned with steadily increasing airframer build rates. Commercial services increased 24%, reflecting continued strength across the business. This included high utilization of legacy aircraft, growing LEAP and GTF activity and solid service demand across wide-body and regional platforms. Defense OEM sales declined 6% due to a one-time revenue recognition adjustment. Excluding the adjustment, defense OEM sales would have grown in the mid-single digits. Defense Services grew 20%, driven by a large delivery of T700 spares and general improvements in castings supply. Aerospace segment earnings were $170 million or 24% of segment sales compared to $126 million or 21.1% of segment sales. The meaningful margin expansion was driven by strong price realization and increased leverage from higher sales volume, partially offset by inflation and unfavorable mix. Price realization included a one-time retroactive pricing adjustment related to a contract that had been under negotiation for several quarters. This adjustment contributed approximately 100 basis points to Aerospace margins in the third quarter. Turning to Industrial. Segment sales for the third quarter were $401 million, an increase of 26%. Core Industrial sales, which exclude the impact of China on-highway, increased 19%, driven by higher volume in all primary markets as well as price realization. Marine transportation sales were strong, increasing approximately 24% with higher shipyard output driving OEM demand. In addition, services also contributed to the growth. Oil and gas sales grew 11%, driven primarily by higher LNG infrastructure-related volume. In addition, upstream capital expenditures are showing signs of recovery, particularly in the Middle East. Power generation sales increased 19%, driven by higher data center demand for both base and backup power. Third quarter China on-highway sales were better than expected at $40 million. We do not expect significant China on-highway sales in the fourth quarter as we complete the wind down of this business. Industrial segment earnings were $88 million or 22.1% of segment sales compared to $48 million or 14.9% of segment sales. The strong margin expansion was driven by increased leverage from higher sales volume and price realization, partially offset by inflation. Core Industrial margins were 21.2% compared to 15.6%. The China on-highway business added approximately 90 basis points to segment margin in the quarter. At the consolidated Woodward level, for the first 9 months of 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $352 million compared to $238 million, largely driven by higher earnings. For the first 9 months, free cash flow was $196 million, an increase of 23% over the prior year while increasing capital expenditures. Our capital expenditures totaled $156 million, and we expect a meaningful increase in capital spending in the fourth quarter. As we discussed last quarter, we are carrying higher inventory levels to support demand. In addition, our accounts receivable balance at the end of the third quarter was higher than expected due to collections timing. As of June 30, 2026, debt leverage was 1.6x EBITDA. Our strong balance sheet provides flexibility to act decisively as compelling opportunities emerge. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We continue to support organic growth, selectively pursue strategic M&A and return capital to shareholders. In the first 9 months of 2026, we returned $608 million to shareholders, $553 million through share repurchases and $55 million in dividends. We now expect to return approximately $700 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the fiscal year. Turning to our 2026 guidance. Based on our strong third quarter performance and confidence in the fourth quarter, we are raising our 2026 earnings guidance. For 2026, we now expect the following: Aerospace sales growth between 21% and 23% with margins of approximately 23.5%, the top end of our previous range. Industrial sales growth increasing to between 19% and 21%, with margins increasing to approximately 19%, and adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 22.5%. Based on these updates, we are raising our adjusted EPS guidance to between $9.30 and $9.50. All other elements of our fiscal year 2026 guidance remain unchanged. This concludes our prepared remarks on the business and results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. Operator, we are now ready to open the call to questions.
分析師問答
Our first question comes from Gavin Parsons with UBS.
On the aftermarket growth rate, obviously, very difficult comps that slowed down a little bit. Anything to call out in terms of either customer behavior or identify for the slowdown? And then if you could speak to how spare LRUs are trending relative to the elevated past few quarters? That would be great.
Sure. The inputs that we've received from airline customers and other MRO shops have been fairly steady to increasing across the LEAP and GTF product portfolio and quite steady on the legacy and wide-body and regional. So no real slowdown that we see on inputs, which is good based on the macro environment that we're involved in. Inputs are strong. As far as spare LRUs go, from a macro standpoint, as part of our strategic planning, we were updating how the entire fleet ratios are looking for the spare LRUs compared to number of engines in the field. We're very satisfied that we're tracking well to the predictions and the model that we had at the start of the program. So we don't think there's an overdue backlog or pull forward or anything going on like that. We feel like we're tracking to the model largely over an extended period of time. Now that can vary quarter-to-quarter based on when airlines place POs or when they decide to take action on crossing certain delivery concentration marks. I don't know, Bill, do you have anything else on that?
I'll just add, Chip, that in Q3, LRUs performed very well. They were strong. And I would expect that going into the fourth quarter that they'll remain elevated, but probably will come down slightly from what we experienced in Q3.
More like the first half?
More like the first half.
Your next question comes from Scott Mikus with Melius Research.
Chip and Bill. Sorry if I missed this, I'm juggling four earnings reports this evening. But we've seen the engine OEMs comment that commercial aftermarket sales and orders continue to be strong in the legacy engine programs like the CFM56 and V2500. It seems like you're seeing the same. But flight activity is essentially flat year-to-date. Are you concerned that airlines or MRO shops are piling up excess inventory on the legacy platforms? And is there a risk that creates destocking maybe in '27?
So the way we look at this and we measure it is really on just monthly inputs to our shop that we receive on the LRUs. So V2500 fuel control, CFM56, HMU, GEnx, GE90, all of these LRUs inputs as we measure them per month, we don't see anything that would indicate a trend away from normal. It's slightly up over time for the wide-body, relatively stable for regional and relatively stable for legacy narrow-body. We see normal variation in noise, not anything that would say there's a trend. It's slightly up over time for the wide-body. It is relatively stable for regional and relatively stable for legacy narrow-body. Does that get your question?
Yes, that does. That helps. Another quick question now. Rolls-Royce actually put out a presentation for its Power Systems segment, where they're talking about roughly a mid-teens growth rate for the next several years. You acquired L'Orange from them back in 2018. You have other power gen customers that are seeing strong demand. Is that mid-teens growth CAGR kind of the right way to think about your power gen and oil and gas revenues at the Industrial segment for the next few years?
Yes, I'm not really sure exactly what the content of that presentation was because people are now talking about base grid power demand versus behind-the-meter demand and items associated with data centers. They're talking about them a little bit separately. For the data center demand, we do see that growing at quite a high rate, whereas the demand for more generic grid-based power generation is a little bit less than that, but still reasonably strong. We are working very closely with each of our power gen customers on how to handle this demand. Last earnings call, I pointed out that for a number of years, I've said we have the right amount of capacity to deal with the power gen demand. But sequentially, numerous customers have come to us and continue to increase their forecast for 2027, 2028 and beyond into the early 2030s. In order to serve all of those cases, we'll have to expand capacity to be able to serve those levels of demand. Right now, we're in the process of having very detailed discussions with our customers about the risk case for all this demand and trying to make sure that we understand it, and we'll make prudent capital allocations to capture this opportunity. It's one of those things that I think we'll be in a better position to talk about at our Investor Day.
Your next question comes from David Strauss with Wells Fargo.
You talked about — it sounds like there was this revenue recognition issue on the defense side. There was a benefit on the Aero margin side. What were the clean incremental Aerospace margins this quarter?
The exact incrementals, I'll have to get that. On Aerospace, backing out the pricing item, it would take the earnings rate from 24% down to 23%. So I would expect those incrementals will still be pretty good there. And then on the revenue recognition item for defense, that did not have a margin impact. So the incrementals are as reported.
Okay. I'm sorry, I thought it was a revenue recognition on the defense side, I might have not heard that correctly.
Right. Right, sorry. The defense — that is right.
That is right. And it is on the Aerospace defense side.
Aerospace defense side.
Okay. All right. Yes. I mean it looks like if you use calculated share on what you report, it's like 39% incrementals in Aerospace. So I was just trying to get to kind of a clean number there. And then on free cash flow, Bill, you talked about the receivable balance. I guess you've raised — as we've gone through the course of the year, you raised your EPS guidance by a fair amount. The free cash flow guidance has kind of remained unchanged. I know there's a range there. But are you just seeing more of a working capital build this year than you kind of would have anticipated? I mean, I know there's some working capital build as you kind of outgrow your expectation, but I would have thought maybe the higher EPS as we've gone through the year that might lead to some sort of increase in the free cash flow guide.
Sure. First, the clean incremental is about 31%. And then going to your question, yes, in our original guide, we assumed some improvement in our turns. I know we have the right initiatives lined up to get there, but we also started seeing clearly that the airframers were going to deliver on the rate increases. To get that turn improvement, it would cause us to have changes in supply chain and our commercial team and then introduce a level of risk that with the demand growth we were seeing, we just weren't willing to take. So while we're not getting efficiencies, we're also not getting worse. That added the investment in inventory beyond what we had in our original guidance. So that's eaten up sort of the EPS growth in the free cash flow guidance that you're seeing being eaten up by that, if that makes sense.
Your next question comes from Louis Raffetto with Wolfe Research.
Bill, I know you talked about or Chip, maybe you even talked about the fixed cost absorption in Industrial, but obviously, backing out the China on-highway that 21% margin in Industrial is impressive. So there's nothing one-time nature in there? Just trying to sort of balance that versus the sort of 14%, 15% we saw last year, 17% in the first half of this year. So anything to note?
Yes. So Lou, it is operational, but it had to do with one of our growing product lines not having as much growth this quarter and seeing some of the other business lines come through that had higher margin rates. So the mix of business units and products played favorably for us this quarter. Now I expect that the business unit that had a little more negative mix will come back next quarter, and I would expect that we see the core Industrial earnings back to what you saw in the first half.
I'd just add that the Industrial team has shown themselves to be very good at executing on volume leverage. As they continue to work Kaizens and respond to the customer demand in the gas turbine side and the reciprocating engine side associated with power gen and the steady increase in marine and other applications, they're well positioned. As Bill said, we had some mix tailwind this quarter, but I still like the direction that they're going and how they're performing.
18% is nothing to sneeze at.
Yes, it certainly shows the potential of at least a large portion of the business, which is good to see. And maybe, Bill, just one more. I know you mentioned you expect CapEx to step up a lot here in the fourth quarter. But I mean, are we really going to double CapEx again in the fourth quarter to hit the guide?
Yes. I've asked that question a few times myself, Lou. The team has come back that there are some big chunks associated with what we have to get done in Q4. It's primarily around finishing the Spartanburg facility and purchasing production machinery for A350 spoiler. Those are pretty chunky. We've got line of sight to it. Five to ten is in the mix there, but I think we will consume most of that and get to the $290 million that we guided toward on capital expenditures.
Your next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.
Just to follow up on that Industrial question on profitability. What is kind of possible over time in the Industrial business? You guys have talked about 16% to 18% trending better than that. But I'm just curious like with all the initiatives you guys have implemented on SKU rationalization and pricing actions and just efficiencies over a longer period of time, what do you think is actually a possible level for the Industrial segment to level out at?
We'll describe that in more detail at our Investor Day. But as we stand today in a growing demand environment where both we and our customers are able to get price, and we are able to accelerate our lean transformation on the floors of our factories and get efficient in our supply chain, we can improve further from this point. We said mid-teens at the last Investor Day, and we've been demonstrating better than that fairly consistently. We're investing and challenging our teams and driving to continuously improve. We like the investments we're making in automation and our lean transformation. We've also made some efficiency moves to optimize the product portfolio and how we serve customers and run our factories. I believe we're on a continuous improvement journey. There's quite a bit more productivity in play, but there are other factors to deal with as well, and we'll give you a full explanation of what we see at our Investor Day.
Your next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.
This is Kyle on for Sheila. I guess just to circle up on the Aerospace margins. I think you just said 31% core incrementals, and that's despite the OE growth kind of leading the pack in commercial. So maybe if you can talk about the puts and takes there? And then secondly, was that price already assumed in the full year guide? And if you're feeling generous, can you tell us what end market and maybe even what customer that's related to?
Okay. So I won't give up the customer. But as it relates to price overall, we're guiding for the full year for that to be close to 8% for the company. In third quarter, our price was 10% and Aerospace contributed more than the 10% and then Industrial less and brought it down to the 10%. So that's kind of where those items came from, Kyle.
I guess you referenced a core flow-through, which I would encourage us not to use that number. Bill was just cleaning up the flow-through number for one of the earlier questions in terms of removing that one-time price reconciliation from the financials.
I think as we look at going forward, I would expect price between 3% and 5% would be a more normal rate. Price will still play a role in margin expansion along with working other productivity initiatives.
It's up to us to fill in the rest with productivity, which we're well deployed to achieve.
Your next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.
Chip and Bill. I wanted to just dig a little deeper on the defense OE side. Obviously, we can appreciate the one-time item in the quarter. But how do you expect that to step up sequentially into the fourth quarter as you think about the broader demand and where you're exposed on the munition side in particular?
No real change from prior quarters in terms of defense OE. We're seeing some price roll through for smart defense in Q3, but I think in Q4 that starts to moderate. So we're not holding out defense OE as a large growth lever in this environment right now. The future could be different; we see potential for defense to have a longer run at higher levels, especially in smart defense, but we don't have any indication that that's going to happen anytime soon. So expect a moderate performance in defense OE.
Okay. And just to clarify, for the commercial Aerospace OE growth in the quarter, the up 34%, was there any restocking beyond just the build rate cadence on that? And what are you seeing with inventory levels of your product at your customers?
It feels like customer stocking levels have returned to normal to slightly below what their MRP systems would like. We still feel a strong pull on delivery. A lot of this growth is due to our ability to get more product through the factory. The combination of working with our suppliers and increasing production internally led to that growth plus some price. We don't see anything unusual. We feel like we're pretty much following the airframer rates. In some cases, their demand for our increased rate is ahead of their rate break, so we sometimes see an earlier break in the demand for us.
Your next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.
How would you frame at this point what's possible or likely or realistic in your Aerospace aftermarket growth rate over the next four to eight quarters compared to what you've been able to achieve in the last four to eight quarters?
We like the long-term story. What we shared at Investor Day was a chart showing that we believe Woodward could likely grow at twice the rate of the overall market based on our product positions and where the installed base is growing. We believe we see proof points with the inputs we're seeing from LEAP and GTF and the performance of newer wide-body products. That story is playing out. Exactly what happens in the next few quarters can be noisy up and down, but we'll be in a position to update that at Investor Day.
And to add, LRUs can make the quarters a bit lumpy.
We've embarked upon elite licensee relationships with top MRO providers, and we'll be working with them on provisioning and support of the agreements, which will provide growth levers for the next year.
You guys have spent a lot of time talking about narrow-body contribution. How does your wide-body exposure and its contribution to your medium- to long-term aftermarket growth compare to narrow-body in terms of the multiplier effect?
The multiplier is hard to answer directly. For platforms like the 787, comparing to older types isn't directly comparable. From a GEnx and GE90 standpoint, these are major platforms with significant LRUs that require a good amount of service. Those are very good businesses for us. We work closely with GE through the Convergence joint venture to service those LRUs, and we like that business; it's going very well and growing.
You guys have talked about 30% to 35% incrementals in both segments' margin over time. Can we use that off of where you are now planning to end 2026? Or is that premature given moving pieces?
That's a great question, and it's one we're working through as we develop our annual operating plan for fiscal 2027. It's a little premature to guide that now because that is really guidance for next year. We've been saying those incrementals for a while and believe in them long term. We need to put a robust plan together for next year, and we'll guide accordingly.
Your next question comes from Alexandra Mandery with Truist.
Nice results. In terms of automation, is there a particular segment or end market you see benefiting the most from increasing automation?
Automation is a generic way of approaching machining, assembly, test, material flow, transport and logistics, and that serves all end markets equally from an inside-out manufacturing standpoint. It's not really market-driven. It's more manufacturing-driven, so it's spread across the end markets we serve.
For sure. And then earlier, you mentioned the supply chain. What weak points might you be seeing? And what efforts have you taken with customers to circumvent supply chain issues in the future?
The biggest challenges mirror the industry: castings and forgings and rare earth metals are top of mind. We haven't had a big problem yet with rare earths, but that's a challenge we expect in the next few quarters. We and our customers and suppliers are working together to allocate the right capacity. For castings and forgings, we've been working to transition to billet that's hogged out on CNC machines. It's less efficient use of material but ensures continuity of supply. We've taken many design-for-manufacturability approaches to control our supply chain. We still have 5 to 10 problematic suppliers that pop up as problems in either Aerospace or Industrial, and we stay tuned to companies that run into trouble. For machining issues, we have rapid response centers at three sites, and we've processed over 15,000 machine pieces through that network to bail out suppliers. We're very active on that front.
Your next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.
Bill, why was commercial aftermarket revenue down sequentially?
We feel good about that business and its continued strength. Part of what happened in Q3 was some strong shipments in Q2 that allowed us to clear out shipments that had been delayed, which impacted Q3 sequentially. The year-over-year was still pretty strong, so I wouldn't read too much into the sequential move.
Okay. And then just to make an attempt to follow up on Noah's question, do you think the Aerospace business will be able to drive at least some level of margin expansion in 2027? Or is there doubt as to whether it can expand margins at all in 2027?
Our plans are to expand margins. We're measuring each product manager and business unit head on margin expansion targets. We've rolled that up through our strategic planning process and will incorporate it into an annual operating plan. The target is margin expansion. We believe we can do it. We have investments in automation and lean transformation and productivity that need to bear fruit, and we're focused on doing that for fiscal 2027.
Okay. So even with potential headwinds of spare LRU normalization, Spartanburg hiring, ERP costs, OE mix, all that, you think the business operationally still has potential to expand margin?
Yes. Even with those factors and the investments we're making to improve long-term performance, we think we have enough capability to deliver margin expansion.
Chip, can you update us on where the business is at in terms of the size of LEAP and GTF revenue base relative to CFM56 and V2500?
We're marching toward that crossover from a repair standpoint. If you include repair plus spare LRUs, we've already crossed it. The legacy business has hung on well in terms of price, work scope and volume, which we did not model fully, so we're excited about the position we're in.
Mr. Blankenship, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back to you.
Thank you very much, operator. Before we end the call, I want to let everyone know that we finalized the date of our Investor Day. It will be held on Thursday, March 4, 2027, in New York City, and I look forward to seeing everyone there. Thanks, everyone, for joining today's call.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference call today. A rebroadcast will be available at the company's website, www.woodward.com for 1 year. We thank you for your participation in today's conference call.