管理層發言
Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Flagstar Bank Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sal DiMartino, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Flagstar Bank's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. This morning, our Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Joseph Otting, along with the company's Co-President, Co-Chief Operating Officer and Chief Banking Officer, Rich Raffetto; and Co-President, Co-Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Lee Smith, will discuss our results for the quarter. During this call, we will be referring to a presentation, which provides additional detail on our quarterly results and operating performance. Both the earnings presentation and the press release can be found on the Investor Relations section of our company website at ir.flagstar.com. Also, before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain comments made today by the management team may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements we may make are subject to the safe harbor rules. Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties, which may affect us. Also, when discussing our results today, we will reference certain non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures. Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Otting. Joseph, please go ahead.
Thank you, Sal, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report another quarter full of meaningful progress across our franchise. Our results reflect continued execution against each of the strategic priorities we've outlined over the past two years. Our second quarter operating results reflect our third consecutive quarter of profitability and improved earnings. Higher pre-provision net revenue, the reduction of balance sheet growth, disciplined expense management and the continued strategic reduction in commercial real estate loan portfolio, a record level of C&I loan production, solid deposit growth, all while reducing our deposit costs and the decline in our criticized and classified loans. This is the result of a clear strategic plan that we have laid out with disciplined execution and the talent to build this across our organization. We are in the early stages of a multiyear growth story, and we are confident that we are on the right path. For some more color, I'd like to turn to Slide 3. This slide demonstrates the underlying strength and momentum of our core banking business as well as the tangible progress we are making against each of our four focus areas. Let me walk you through each one. Under our first focus area, we believe that our capital position remains a competitive advantage, providing flexibility to support our organic growth and return capital to shareholders. In that regard, I am pleased that this morning, we announced a $250 million share buyback. A clear signal of progress we are making on our strategic plan and long-term outlook for the bank. We're also pleased to report our third consecutive quarter of profitability and improved earnings as our pre-provision net revenue increased 51% compared to last quarter. Disciplined expense management has been a key contributor of our return to profitability. And in the second quarter, expenses declined 3%, helping drive positive operating leverage. Also, the second quarter marked an inflection point in our growth trajectory as the balance sheet grew by almost $600 million, as we had indicated in the last call. And in terms of deposits, we grew core deposits this quarter by over $600 million while reducing deposit costs. Second, a key component of our transformation strategy is to diversify our loan portfolio by growing the C&I book of business. This quarter, we delivered $2 billion of net C&I loan growth on record origination volumes of $2.8 billion. This is our fourth consecutive quarter of net C&I loan growth and the first quarter of overall loan growth since the fourth quarter of 2023. In addition to the strong loan growth, we also grew C&I and private banking deposits this quarter by approximately $900 million. Third, we continue to systematically reduce our CRE exposure as multifamily and CRE par payoffs totaled $1.1 billion, of which 39% of those were substandard rated loans. While CRE concentration decreased to 350% from 367% last quarter, and well over 500% when we originally came to the company. Fourth, in terms of credit, our criticized and classified loans declined 1% compared to last quarter and are down $1.1 billion or 9% on a year-over-year basis. In the second quarter, we did experience an increase in net charge-offs to $100 million, but half of those were previously 100% reserved for. Next, turning to Slide 4. The EPS progression tells a compelling story of the bank's underlying momentum. On an adjusted basis, we moved from a loss of $0.14 in the second quarter of 2025 to $0.05 in the second quarter of 2026, representing our third straight quarter of profitability. Now I'd like to turn it over to Rich Raffetto. With our recent reorganization, Rich assumes responsibility for all the banking activities in the company. This is his first earnings report with us, and so I'd like to welcome Rich. And Rich, please, I'll turn it over to you.
Great. Thank you, Joseph, and good morning to everyone as well. On the next couple of slides, I'd like to highlight the tremendous progress we are making in building out a scaled relationship-based commercial banking business. As you turn to Slide 5, I am pleased to report that our commercial banking franchise continues to build significant momentum during the second quarter. Our two-pronged focused growth strategy, combining specialized industries banking with corporate and regional commercial banking is clearly delivering results. In the second quarter, we generated $4.2 billion in new and increased credit commitments, which yielded $2.8 billion in new C&I closed loan originations, which was up about $800 million or 40% from the prior quarter, representing a record quarter in terms of loan production from our growing team of seasoned relationship managers. We added 75 new-to-bank C&I relationships during the quarter, reflecting the strength of our C&I banker recruitment efforts as well as our expanding market presence. And our pipeline going into the third quarter stands at over $2 billion in C&I commitments, providing strong visibility into continued C&I loan growth and momentum. Looking at the C&I loan balance trend on the right side of Slide 5, total C&I loans grew from $16.6 billion last quarter to $18.6 billion this quarter, an increase of $2 billion or 12% quarter-over-quarter. And this growth was broad-based, but particularly concentrated in our core strategic focus areas. Specialized Industries and Corporate & Regional Commercial Banking together drove $2.1 billion of end-of-period loan growth, which was up 29% quarter-over-quarter. This is the direct result of the talent that we have been recruiting, the product capabilities we have been building and the relationships we have been cultivating across our target markets and industry verticals. The C&I growth was well diversified, both by industry segment and geographically, with particular strength in our energy, financial institutions, healthcare, technology and sports and entertainment verticals as well as our large corporate diversified and our New York and Southern California-based regional commercial banking teams. During the second quarter, we hired 32 new producers and credit underwriters to our C&I banking effort as well as support staff to drive further growth, especially in Specialized Industries and Corporate & Regional Commercial Banking. In addition, we hired new Commercial Banking team leaders regionally in the Dallas, Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix markets, and we also launched Specialized Industries verticals during the quarter, food and beverage, leisure, hospitality and gaming and education and nonprofits. We also launched a new regional commercial banking initiative in Texas, which represents a new geography for us. Continuing on the next slide, which is Slide 6, we show a more granular look at the C&I portfolio composition at June 30, 2026. With Specialized Industries as a standout performer this quarter, it grew $1.7 billion or 34% compared to the previous quarter and reflecting the depth and breadth of our industry verticals and the quality of the bankers that we have brought on board. Corporate & Regional Commercial Banking grew $375 million in the quarter or 18% to $2.4 billion as we continue to build out our middle market franchise across key geographies. And finally, our Equipment Finance team returned to growth in the quarter as well as our Asset-Based Finance team, which was relatively stable while Mortgage Finance declined $109 million, reflecting seasonality. So with that, I'll now turn it over to Lee Smith to review our financials and credit quality.
Thank you, Rich, and good morning, everyone. We're very pleased with our third consecutive quarter of profitability, where we continued to execute on our strategic vision to transform Flagstar into one of the best-performing regional banks in the country. As Joseph mentioned, this morning, we also announced the $250 million share repurchase program. This action reflects the bank's strong capital position and our commitment to creating long-term shareholder value. In addition, we achieved several other accomplishments during the second quarter, including pre-provision net revenue increased $34 million on an unadjusted basis and $22 million on an adjusted basis. Our balance sheet grew approximately $600 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong C&I loan and deposit growth. As Rich discussed, the C&I loan portfolio increased $2 billion or 12% compared to the previous quarter. Core deposits, excluding brokered deposits, increased $700 million and have increased approximately $1.8 billion during the first half of the year. While deposits grew, we were also able to reduce deposit cost by 5 basis points despite a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. We continue to deleverage the balance sheet by paying off another $250 million of FHLB advances as we continue to reduce our reliance on higher cost wholesale borrowings. Without this deleveraging, the balance sheet would have increased over $800 million quarter-over-quarter. Multifamily and commercial real estate payoffs were again elevated during the quarter of $1.5 billion, $1.1 billion of which were par payoffs, and 39% of par payoffs were substandard rated loans. The ACL decreased $81 million, driven primarily by lower multifamily and CRE loan balances, higher charge-offs, of which a significant amount were already reserved for, and more appraisals leading to reductions on qualitative adjustments on individually evaluated loans. We also witnessed the reduction in substandard loans of $375 million quarter-over-quarter. Operating expenses were again well contained, down 3% quarter-over-quarter to $427 million, well within our previously provided guidance range. And finally, we ended the quarter with a 13.16% CET1 capital ratio, comfortably one of the strongest CET1 ratios of any other regional bank and a driving factor behind our stock buyback announcement. Now turning to Slide 7. We reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.06 per diluted share on a GAAP basis and $0.05 per diluted share on an adjusted basis. The one notable item this quarter was related to our equity investment in Figure Technologies, which we exited in full during the quarter for a gain of $3.5 million. On the next slide, I'd like to walk you through our updated forecast for '26 and '27. We have adjusted our interest income guidance downward for both years as a result of increased multifamily and CRE payoffs, paydowns and amortization. This is both good news and bad news as it accelerates our diversification strategy by reducing our CRE exposure, but it reduces interest income and NIM in the short term. Lower noninterest-bearing DDA growth in the second quarter: while we had good deposit growth in the quarter, it was from interest-bearing deposits. While we expect to grow noninterest-bearing DDAs going forward, the timing has been pushed out, and we have changed the mix of deposit growth to more interest-bearing deposits, which impacts interest income and NIM. Nonaccrual loan balances at the end of the year are expected to be slightly higher than previously forecasted. And the higher-for-longer interest rate environment is impacting mortgage gain on sale revenues and therefore, we reduced noninterest income versus our previous guidance. EPS for '26 is now forecast to be in the $0.40 to $0.50 range and EPS for '27 is forecast to be in $1.60 to $1.70 range. Moving next to Slide 9 and the trends in our net interest margin. The second quarter NIM of 2.13% compared to 2.15% in the first quarter but was impacted by an extra day in the quarter. Excluding this, the net interest margin would have been 2.16% in the second quarter. Furthermore, June net interest margin was 2.19% as we began to see NIM expansion from the larger balance sheet. Turning now to Slide 10 and noninterest expense, which remains a key pillar of our strategy to optimize efficiency and therefore, earnings and drive positive operating leverage. Operating expenses continued to decline during the second quarter, down $14 million or 3% compared to the prior quarter and down $33 million or 7% on a year-over-year basis. Moving on to capital on Slide 11, which shows that we maintain a strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 13.16%. This places us in the top quartile of our peer group. At this level, we have approximately $1.6 billion of excess capital after tax relative to the low end of our target CET1 operating range. And as we mentioned earlier, we're going to put some of this excess capital to use with that $250 million share buyback program. This slide is an overview of our deposits. Core deposits, excluding brokered, increased $700 million on a linked quarter basis, or 1%. This growth was primarily driven by growth in commercial and private bank deposits of $900 million, partially offset by lower retail deposits of $290 million. On deposit costs, we continue to make progress as the cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 5 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 65 basis points year-over-year. This improvement reflects our disciplined approach to pricing and the benefit of growing commercial and private banking relationships. During the quarter, $4.8 billion of retail CDs matured with a weighted average cost of 3.98%, and we retained approximately 85% of these balances as they moved into other CD products that were approximately 15 to 25 basis points lower than the maturing CDs. In the third quarter, we have another $4.4 billion of retail CDs maturing with a weighted average cost of 3.87%. We also continued to deleverage the balance sheet by paying down $250 million of FHLB advances with a weighted average cost of approximately 3.95% during the quarter. Moving next to Slide 13, which shows total commercial real estate par payoffs. In the second quarter, our par payoffs remained elevated, totaling $1.1 billion, 39% of which were rated substandard, which is a particularly important data point. We're not just reducing the size of the CRE portfolio, we're improving asset quality by clearing out the lower quality credits and executing on our strategy to diversify the balance sheet. These payoffs are resulting in a significant reduction in combined multifamily and CRE balances. In total, CRE balances are down $14.9 billion or 28% since 2023, including a $1.5 billion or 4% quarter-over-quarter reduction. Additionally, the payoffs have lowered our CRE concentration ratio to 350%, down nearly 150 percentage points since 2023. Turning now to Slide 14, an overview of the multifamily portfolio. We continue to proactively reduce our multifamily exposure as total multifamily balances have decreased $4.9 billion or 16% year-over-year and $0.9 billion or 3% quarter-over-quarter. The reserve coverage on the overall multifamily portfolio was 1.63%. Additionally, the reserve coverage on those New York City multifamily loans where 50% or more of the units are regulated is 2.87%. Currently, we have about $11 billion of multifamily loans with a weighted average coupon of approximately 3.90% that are either resetting or maturing between June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2027. Moving now to Slide 15 and 16, where we provide a more detailed view of the New York City rent-regulated multifamily portfolio. As of June 30, this tranche of the portfolio was $13.4 billion, down $677 million or 5% quarter-over-quarter. While the tranche where 50% or more of the units are regulated was $8.5 billion, down about $338 million or 4% quarter-over-quarter. This portfolio has an occupancy rate of 97%, a current LTV of 70%. Approximately 48% or $4.1 billion of the $8.5 billion are pass-rated loans and the remaining $4.4 billion are criticized or classified loans, meaning they are either special mention, substandard or nonaccrual. Of the $4.4 billion, $1.7 billion are nonaccrual and have already been charged off to at least 90% of appraisal value, meaning $351 million or 17% has been charged off against these nonaccrual loans. Furthermore, we also had an additional $76 million or 4% of reserves against the nonaccrual population, meaning we have taken 21% of either charge-offs or reserves against this population. Of the remaining $2.7 billion that are special mention and substandard loans, between reserves and charge-offs, we have 5% or $134 million of loan loss coverage. We believe we're adequately reserved. We have charged these loans off to appropriate levels. And with excess capital of $2.1 billion before tax, we think we're more than covered whether we see any further degradation in this portion of the portfolio. Slide 17 details our ACL coverage by category. The $81 million reduction in the ACL was largely driven by lower CRE and multifamily balances, up charge-offs and lower individually evaluated reserves as we received more appraisals. Our coverage ratio, including unfunded commitments, was at 1.52% quarter-over-quarter. Slide 18 provides a broader view of asset quality trends during the second quarter. Criticized and classified loans decreased $152 million or 1% quarter-over-quarter and $1.1 billion or 9% year-over-year. Nonaccrual loans increased modestly to $2.8 billion, up $123 million or 5% quarter-over-quarter. During the quarter, we did experience an increase in special mention loans of $100 million as a result of our comprehensive and prudent internal process of looking in detail at all loans with a reset or maturity date 18 months forward. Eighteen months from June 30 brings us to the end of '27, and '27 is our largest recent year where approximately $9 billion of CRE loans either reset or mature. We have applied pro forma interest rate calculations to these loans based on contractual reset terms and have adjusted the risk ratings accordingly. This look forward was also the main driver for the quarter-over-quarter increase in nonaccrual loans. I would also highlight that 40% of our nonaccrual loans are current and paying. Three items of note: we are now 100% through analyzing 2027 loans in their entirety. We continue to see a significant amount of substandard loans paying off at par each quarter, and all of this analysis is reflected in our ACL reserve. At the end of the quarter, 30- to 89-day delinquencies were approximately $368 million, down almost $600 million quarter-over-quarter. The biggest driver of the decrease is June being a 30-day month, as we've previously discussed; any time a month past 31 days spikes the delinquency number for those borrowers paying on the last day of the month, given that we calculate delinquencies at precisely 30 days. We continue to deliver on our strategic plan and are excited about the journey we're on and the value we will create for our shareholders over the next two years. With that, I will now turn the call back to Joseph.
Thank you very much, Lee and Rich. Before moving to Q&A, let me close with a few summary thoughts. When we put our original forecast together, we were unaware of the change to interest rates that we would be experiencing a perspective in the market; interest rates are rising versus decreasing. We also saw a sizable increase of cost of energy to our customers. And the rent control board, while we had focused on and did a lot of modeling and ultimately voted not to increase rents for the one- and two-year leases going forward. In spite of this, overall, we are still pleased with the trajectory of the business. We achieved our third straight quarter of profitability. We grew the balance sheet for the first time since 2023, both in aggregate and in our loan book. We delivered record C&I loan growth, we grew our deposits, and we continued to reduce our CRE exposure while maintaining strong capital and the announcement of the $250 million share plan. In addition, I'd like to thank our executive leadership team and all our teammates for their dedication and commitment to the organization and our customers. I also like to thank our Board of Directors for their support and counsel. And now I would be happy to answer questions. Operator, if you can please open the line for questions?
分析師問答
Our first question comes from the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies.
So jumping right to the buyback, great to see the $250 million authorization. Your excess capital is significantly above this level, at $1.6 billion. Can you talk about how you're balancing capital priorities between growth and buybacks?
Yes. Thank you for the question. We have been very consistent in that there are three variables that management and the Board are observing. The number one is the growth in core earnings is an important part of the story. The second is that the trends that we see and the credit quality of the loan book. And then the third being, there's balancing between the amount of CRE payoffs and the amount of capital that we'll need to support the C&I growth. So those are the variables that both internally and at the Board level, we're using to make a determination of how much capital in the form of a share buyback that will return to the shareholder.
And then on the C&I loan growth outlook, in the quarter, very strong $2 billion pipeline, looks strong as well as $0.8 billion. How should we think about growth going forward? Is a similar pace reasonable? How should we think about that?
Rich, do you want to take the next question?
Sure. Happy to take it. I would suggest that we see consistent loan growth going forward, consistent with what we delivered in the second quarter. We continue to onboard new-to-bank hires, and they are building their pipelines. So we see increasing momentum going forward in our loan growth expectations, including new geographies and new verticals. In addition, I would mention that our commercial real estate team has started to originate loans more nationally, and that will also help us reduce CRE payoffs on a net basis.
Our next question will come from the line of Dave Rochester with Cantor.
Just a quick one back on the buyback. I know you said it was for the next 12 months, but you are obviously still trading below adjusted tangible book value and you do have that excess capital. Is it reasonable to assume that you could potentially get through this $250 million and then go back to the Board and ask for more? I guess what I'm really asking is whether, in your view, the Board would be willing to increase the buyback.
Yes. I think it's those three variables as we progress through the year, they clearly want both the management and the board want to see the increases in the core earnings. We see a downward projection continued in the loan portfolio. And then it really gets into how much capital are we going to need. You saw a little bit that our CET1 was down this quarter because of the expansion of the balance sheet. And we probably will continue to see that as our projections show us continuing from this point forward to expand the balance sheet. So it's a little bit as we march our rate through the rest of the year and into 2027, looking at those three variables and then making a decision and a recommendation to the Board.
Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the margin guide in the 2.19% that you mentioned Lee for June. Are you looking at that as more of a floor going forward for the margin? Because it seems like your guide is taking a decent amount of expansion in the second half of the year to get to the bottom of that NIM range for '26. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on that and your confidence around that and what's going to be the major drivers of that?
Yes. I am looking at that as a floor, and that was the reason for pointing out the June NIM. And I think, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, what you're seeing is the NIM expanding as we grow the balance sheet. This is the first quarter we've shown overall balance sheet growth since 2023, and a lot of that growth occurred towards the end of the quarter, and you obviously saw the margin pick up in June. But the drivers of the NIM expansion, as we've spoken about before, is that multifamily book is going to continue to reset or mature and effectively between now and the end of '27, you've got about $11 billion of low-coupon multifamily loans that are going to hit their reset or maturity dates. That's obviously a big driver. We're going to continue to grow the C&I book at market rates, and the $2 billion that Rich and his team put on in the second quarter came on at an average spread to SOFR of 226 basis points. Rich also mentioned, we're going to start originating new CRE loans as well at market rates. That will offset some of the runoff that we saw in Q1 and Q2 of this year. You may have noticed, if you look at the balance sheet, while our overall cash and securities balance on a combined basis was flat we actually swapped more cash into securities, about $2 billion, and we think that that will help us from a NIM expansion point of view. And then as we mentioned on the liability side, we were able to reduce deposit cost 5 basis points, and we did that as well as increased deposit growth, $700 million in the quarter. We paid down another $250 million of wholesale borrowings. That's something that we're always looking at. And then we do expect to reduce nonaccrual loans between now and the end of the year. And then again, as we get into '27, the reduction of those nonaccrual loans has a positive impact on NIM as well.
Our next question will come from the line of Casey Haire with Autonomous Research.
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So I wanted to touch on credit. Lee, you just mentioned NPL reduction, you still expect that. I think you guys have been targeting about a $1 billion reduction, just a little bit of a setback this quarter. I was just wondering, is that still a reasonable target as well as what is your forecast for net charge-offs in the next couple of quarters?
Yes. On the nonaccrual loans, as we look through the end of the year, we expect to end the year at about $2.3 billion. That would be a reduction of roughly $450 million to $500 million from the end of June. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, that is slightly higher than our prior expectation of about $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion, but still a reduction of about $450 million to $500 million from the end of June. In terms of charge-offs, and as Joseph noted in his prepared remarks, net charge-offs were $99 million in the quarter, but $47 million of that was already fully reserved for. Backing that out, you are at $53 million, which equates to a net charge-off ratio of about 35 basis points.
Okay. Very good. And just a question on the reserves. So can you give us a sense of where the reserve is on your C&I production? Just trying to get a sense of where the new production is coming on, and we can get a sense on the landing point for the reserve.
Yes, sure. So you can assume that new C&I is coming on at about 1% coverage. But what I would add is what is rolling off is much higher risk and has a higher coverage ratio. So I mentioned that we had about $375 million of substandard par payoffs. So a lot of that CRE and multifamily payoff and activity has a much higher coverage ratio. So we're reducing the higher risk, higher coverage assets and the C&I that's coming on is coming on at a much lower coverage ratio at about 1%.
Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shaw with Barclays.
Can we just look maybe at the loan yields this quarter, there was the decline. What was the yield on the par payoffs? I guess maybe more of those had hit reset than I was expecting. And was there any significant impact from interest reversals from the NPL growth this quarter? Just trying to figure out where we should expect to see sort of loan yields trending for the rest of the year?
Yes. So here's what I would say. If you look at the $1.5 billion of CRE total par payoffs, so I'm not just including the par payoffs on the multifamily, I'm looking at this in totality, it was about just over 5% with the yields on those loans that paid off. So that obviously had an impact. The fact that nonaccruals ticked up a little bit, in the quarter, quarter-over-quarter, that obviously also has an impact. The other thing that I'd mention is when you look at Q1, we did have a little bit more deferred income, and so these were legacy signature loans that had been marked through purchase accounting that refinanced, and we got sort of that benefit from a yield point of view in Q1. There wasn't any of that in the second quarter, or there was very little of that. So the way I look at the asset yields right now is this should sort of be a bottom, a floor what you saw in the second quarter.
Okay. All right. That's good. And then just a quick follow-up on the credit. You mentioned going through and reevaluating all of 2027 now. How has your success rate been on these revaluations? If you look at what happened in 2026, have those dispositions come close to your original or updated assumptions?
Yes. I think, I mean, one thing I'd remind everybody is that as part of our strategy when the new equity and new investors came in, we re-underwrote the multifamily and CRE book in 2024, took over $900 million of charge-offs, and significantly increased our reserves. So remember we did all that work in 2024. I think it worked out that we were pretty close to what we thought, because if we weren't close you would see it in the ACL reserve, and you are not seeing that. And another thing to remind everybody, Jared, is that we now get internal annual financial statements on all of these borrowers and we are prudently doing an 18-month look-forward for everything that is resetting or maturing in the next 18 months. If we were off, you would see that reflected in the ACL reserve, and if you look at what has happened to the ACL reserve over the last three quarters, you have not seen that. So we feel the work we did in 2024 was pretty close to the mark.
Our next question will have from the line of Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank.
Maybe we could just talk about the 18-month forward lookout. If we do get a rate hike or continued rate hikes, how has that impacted the stress that you see there? Like, what are the changes? And what do you incorporate in when you look at 18 months? Is it a hike? Just can you give us some thoughts on the sensitivities that you're running?
Sure. Yes. So if you look at our forecast, Bernie, we have one rate hike assumed that is in October of this year. And so as we do our 18-month look forward, it's underpinned by a very thorough stress analysis. And so we are looking at all of that and factoring that in based on the contractual terms that we have in our contracts, which I think as you know, people have two options, it's five-year plus $300 million or prime plus $275 million, and we really haven't wavered off of that much. I think what I would say is if there are interest rate hikes what's more likely going to happen is people will wait to the last minute before they act. Because remember, these reset dates and maturities, those are cast in stone. It doesn't matter what happens to interest rates. That time is going to come. They're going to have to act. If rates were declining, that might encourage people to move sooner to take advantage of the low rates. So I think all the rate hikes, it just means that people are going to hang on to the last minute. But as I've said in my prepared remarks and during the Q&A, we have $11 billion of multifamily loans that are going to hit their reset or maturity dates between now and the end of '27, and that has to force the borrower to take action.
Okay. And just as a follow-up, Lee, I think you mentioned that the balance growth would be a little bit higher than you previously forecasted for this year. Could you just update us on what is that for year-end? And what do you have for '27, if you could provide any updates?
Yes, sure. So right now, Bernie, I think we believe that we'll end this year, '26, at about $91.5 billion to $92 billion and then we think we can get to $100 billion by the end of '27, total balance sheet.
Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.
On the forward guide, revenue is going down a little bit, expenses you're keeping relatively in line with the prior guide. Is that a function of the hiring and the investments you're making? Or is there a little bit of flexibility there as we get into next year?
On the expenses, I think the team has done an unbelievable job reducing expenses as we have done. So I think we feel good about the guidance that we provided around expenses because not only are we cutting costs, we continue to invest in Rich's business technology as well. And so recent investments we continue to make and we're still able to offset that investment and bring our costs down, as you've seen. So we feel pretty good about the guidance we've provided around expenses.
Got it. And then on the C&I growth side, there's some really nice C&I growth coming through, you're adding relationships. Can you talk about how many of those relationships are coming with the deposits and fee-based revenues as well? And how you're thinking about that going forward if there's more opportunity to bring in more deposits and fees from those relationships?
Sure. Thanks, Manan. This is Rich. I'll tell you, on a year-to-date basis, in our C&I and private banking businesses, we experienced net loan growth of over $3 billion and deposit growth of $1.4 billion on a net growth basis. In the first six months of the year, we brought in roughly 130 new-to-bank C&I relationships and we feel good about our momentum in both deposits and fee income generation from these new relationships, not just with spread income from deposits, but also fees we expect our capital markets fees and treasury management fees, in particular, to show significant growth in 2026 and beyond as we further build out the product set, and the natural synergies between our commercial bank growth and our private banking capability set drives business customers to also become personal customers and personal customers to also become business customers. So we are very bullish about our opportunity set in both deposits and fees based on our relationship-based banking strategy.
Our next question will come from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.
Joseph, I appreciate the comments about coming in and setting a bar for the profitability targets when you first joined, and there's been a lot going on. I guess the question that I'm getting is the degree of confidence in the NII? Is this the last revision? Because I think if it is, I think the pieces fall into place with the buyback and the stock. So any comments on conviction level and then NII?
I think we feel pretty good, Chris. I mean when you go back to our original projections, we were expecting CRE payoffs in the $600 million to $800 million range per quarter. And this quarter was almost $1.5 billion. Last quarter, it was $1.5 billion. So that has far outstripped what we originally forecasted. Going forward, we're looking for net CRE payoffs to be about $1 billion. And that's also with us originating $200 million to $300 million a quarter in new CRE originations. So I feel really, really good about what's going on in the C&I book and our ability to continue to have net growth in the C&I business. And the variable to that is the CRE. And I think now that we have new production occurring in there, that will help offset what has been really enormous payoffs. And Lee mentioned it's a good news, bad news. The good news is we are fast approaching the lower 300% level where is our target as a percentage of real estate concentration; we will get there probably 1.5 years to two years earlier than what we originally forecasted. So yes, I think we feel good about expanding the balance sheet as we saw this quarter and the variable really comes down to how much CRE gets paid off.
And then, Chris, if I might add, I think everything we said we were going to do, we've done — and remember, this was a complicated, multifaceted turnaround; there were a lot of moving parts. And I think everything we said we were going to do, we've done. And as I said on the last call, everything we can control, I think we're delivering on. We obviously don't control interest rates. We didn't know rates were going to be higher for longer, six months ago, never mind sort of 18 months ago, but we've reacted and I think we've got a balance sheet that is pretty neutral. And the way I look at this is we're on track, and the worst case scenario is maybe it takes us one or two quarters longer to get to where we said we were going to be by Q4 '27. And I don't think that is a bad thing at all given the hand we were dealt two years ago, where we are today, and I think where we will be 12 to 18 months from now.
I appreciate that. That's great color. And then just kind of a technical question with the guide. I think, Lee, correct me if I'm wrong, the guide historically has not assumed buybacks. Does the updated guide now that you have an authorization include buybacks? Or is this still without it?
It prices without it. There are no buybacks, including the $250 million we announced this morning. That is not included in the forecast and the guidance that I provided.
Okay. So it would be additive, if you do?
Correct.
Our next question comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Citi.
So you guys are saying like you've done everything you've said you're going to do at least on the initiatives that you have control of that the market keeps giving opportunities for people to pay off a little earlier than expected. So the floor keeps moving on you with that respect. So if you're thinking about growth, that's a big usage of capital. So I could see your understandingly reluctant to do a big buyback, but if payoffs continue to be elevated, you're going to have excess capital. Do you have the ability to kind of walk into buybacks at the same time? So like is price sensitivity on the buyback a big factor? Or is it just something out there for buying dips? Just trying to get a sense of how active you'll be, especially if you have the pace of the balance sheet doesn't grow as much as you're anticipating because of those things that are out of your control?
Yes. Ben, I think clearly, we recognize the amount of capital the bank has and that really we've built up through a process that capital — with the original capital injection, and then we took action to sell the mortgage warehouse business and the mortgage servicing businesses that created excess capital. So I think now as we turn the quarter to go in the other direction, we'll be looking at the variables of how the capital is being used and what our forecast looks like. And really, we think we're on track to meet our core earnings revised forecast. We do think Rich is going to net grow in excess of $2 billion now a quarter. And then the other variable is, as we work our way through the nonaccruals and the problem loans is can we execute on that to the way that we forecasted. So those — I'd say we're in the early innings of all of those coming together, and we'll get better clarity as we move through the rest of the year which will then give us the ability to make recommendations to the Board about future buyback actions.
Got you. And then just wanted to follow up again on the sensitivity. For some reason, your stock went to like $10 or something much lower than what it is. Could we anticipate using the whole thing like immediately?
I think clearly, we — that would be an incredibly attractive price for us to execute on our stock buyback. So I think there would definitely be dialogue about should we move quickly at those kind of price levels.
Our next question comes from the line of David Smith with Truist Securities.
Rich, within C&I, it was a really strong quarter for the specialized industries with, I think, $1.9 billion of origination, about $1.7 billion of funded balances, what are the industry groups contributing most to this? Because I know you stood up a few new groups this quarter that presumably aren't contributing very much yet.
Thanks, David. I would underscore our specialized industry groups, the ones that are a little bit more mature that we started over a year ago, and those include our energy sector banking group, especially our oil and gas unit, but as well we have power and renewables team. So both those teams are contributing significantly to that strong loan growth in the second quarter. Our health care team had a very good quarter, as did our technology and government services team. We also saw particular growth in our entertainment and sports verticals and our financial institutions verticals. And that includes a lender finance team, an insurance team, a fund finance team and a sponsor finance team. So those would be the units on the Specialized side that I would call out where we saw particularly strong loan growth in the second quarter.
And then shifting gears to multifamily. There's obviously been some legal action announced about the rent-stabilized rent freeze in New York City. Could the outcome of that have a material impact on Flagstar either way?
Well, we've gone through a process, as we indicated before, in the allocated reserve side of it, you really couldn't capture that directly with that. So we have overlays in the ACL process. We, this last quarter, were able to kind of really build a model around the specific boroughs and looking at the cap rates in the direction. And when we've kind of brought all that together between allocated and unallocated, there was a slight uptick in the ACL for the rent-regulated multifamily. But I think what we've tried to indicate before, we've tried to stay on top of that portfolio and make sure that our reserves are satisfactory. And I think we've proved that out.
Our next question comes from the line of Timur Braziler with UBS.
Another one on the margin guidance with 2027 being left unchanged and second quarter coming in a little bit light. Can you just maybe walk us through the stair step and the progression to get to that 2027 level? In your mind, is it pretty even per quarter? Or given the fact that maybe some of the DDA production is being pushed out, NPLs are a little bit higher? That's largely skewed kind of towards the back end of that timetable?
Yes. The margin continues to improve quarter-over-quarter, and that's driven largely by the continued multifamily and CRE loans in their reset and maturity dates. So we're carrying fewer lower-coupon multifamily CRE loans. By the time you get to the end of '27, as I've mentioned, there's about $11 billion of those multifamily loans that hit their reset or maturity dates. They have a weighted average coupon of less than approximately 3.9%. So we continue to work through that overhang. Rich continues to originate new C&I loans, $2 billion in Q2 at an average spread to SOFR of 226 basis points. So we're going to continue to add C&I loans to the balance sheet every quarter. So the mix of the balance sheet is improving every single day. And that is another big driver. We're going to be originating, and we've already been originating new CRE loans at market rates. So as we see par payoffs, particularly the lower coupon par payoffs, we're replacing some of that runoff with market-rate CRE loans. As I mentioned, we've used some of our cash to buy more securities, and that helps from a NIM point of view. We're going to continue to manage our funding costs, both core deposits and where we have opportunities to continue to pay down wholesale borrowings, we will do that. And then we expect to reduce our nonaccrual loans. Now the reduction of the nonaccrual loans isn't necessarily linear because every single loan has its own story and workout strategy, but we do expect to reduce the nonaccrual book. So it's all of that that goes into the NIM expansion. And look, the balance sheet as of 12/31/26, which is the jump-off point for '27, will look a lot different than it does at June 30 because we're going to have fewer lower-coupon multifamily CRE loans, and we expect to add several billion of C&I loans between now and then as well.
Great. And I guess on that $11 billion of lower-yielding multifamily that's expected to mature between now and year-end '27, what's the expected retention there? Divided by six, you got kind of $1.8 billion, that's all leaving, that's still seemingly a pretty big headwind. Are you expecting to retain a decent portion of that? Or is this larger chunk going to remain a headwind to the net loan growth?
We're retaining about 35% to 40% of loans that are resetting typically.
Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.
First, a quick one, Lee, just curious what the spot cost of deposits was at the end of the quarter and curious on how you feel about your ability to maintain or further lower deposit costs from here just given kind of industry dynamics?
So the spot cost, and I always mention this, so I'm going to give you the spot cost including all our interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing deposits; it does include the broker deposits as well. So it's all in. It's about 2.49%. And look, yes — just to answer the second part of your question, we were able to reduce deposit costs 5 basis points in the second quarter. It's going to get, without rate decreases, it definitely gets a little tougher. There are strategies that we're able to deploy, especially as we have retail CDs maturing and as I mentioned, we're retaining typically about 85% of those, and we're moving them into lower-cost CDs. There are certain strategies around back books that we're looking at. But the other big driver for us of reducing funding cost is paying down those wholesale borrowings, those FHLB advances. And so that is something that as we have the opportunity, we'll continue to pay down FHLB advances going forward.
Got it. Okay. And then the other question I had, bigger picture, we talked about it a couple of times is the rent guidelines for the one- and two-year rent freeze. And what is your 18-month look forward modeling for rent freezes, I guess, for the remainder of the governor's term? It seems much more real that there could be a four-year freeze while expenses, regardless of the rent guidelines for determination, continue to climb higher. It feels like another material valuation risk of the asset class, and I'm curious if that's baked into your assumptions and showing up in the appraisals as well.
We have previously — and I mentioned this last quarter — we have done an exercise where we assumed that there was a rent freeze in place for three years and we assumed that operating costs were going up 2.75% and market rents would be able to increase 2.1%. And what we found was the demarcation line was 70%. So any building that was 70% or less rent-regulated, the NOIs aren't impacted because they can offset the rent freezes by increasing rents on the market-rate units. For the buildings that are more than 70% regulated, it had an impact of about 7% to 8% on NOI over that three-year period. And Matt, if you look at our debt, we lay out our exposure to New York City rent-regulated buildings. And we've got about $8.5 billion that are more than 50% rent-regulated. $4 billion of that are pass-rated loans with very strong NOIs. So we don't feel that it has a significant impact there. And then of the $4.4 billion that's criticized and classified, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, between charge-offs and reserves, we've taken a significant amount of coverage: the charge-offs on nonaccruals of $351 million, and we have another $76 million reserved against that population, which is more than 20%. And then we have $134 million on the special mention and substandard. So we feel we're adequately covered. We do the 18-month look forward. We get annual financial statements. We're looking at violations and lists. We're looking at the worst landlord list. We're doing a lot of homework on this. And I think if we had an issue, you would see it in our ACL reserve. And as Joseph mentioned, we have previously reserved for this eventuality. And as we refined our analysis in Q2, it had a nominal impact as you can see by what happened to the ACL reserve and provision this quarter.
Our next question comes from the line of Janet Lee with TD Cowen.
On your anticipated roughly $500 million decline in NPLs, I believe about 75% of that of your total NPLs are coming from the New York City regulated. Can we assume that roughly the similar proportion of the NPLs reduction is coming from the rent regulated? Or is there a difference in composition there?
You can't really assume a linear composition. The majority of the NPLs will be multifamily because it's the biggest portfolio. In terms of resolution, every loan has a different story, and so you can't really say on a percentage basis that it's going to be the same percentage that drives the reduction because, for example, you may just find that you're able to resolve CRE of these nonaccruals in a particular stretch versus multifamily. So it's not linear and mathematical in that regard. But what I would say is we have a fact team that is doing a tremendous job applying multiple workout strategies, DPOs, sales strategies in order to reduce that nonaccrual book. And as I say, we feel that we can reduce that as we look forward, not just through the end of this year but through the end of '27 as well.
Got it. Fair. So regulated multifamily nonaccruals are still expected to come down, but obviously, the composition might be a little different. On your deposit cost, does your NII contemplate a decline in your further deposit costs or relatively stable if rate hikes materialize? Or maybe in a flat rate environment, what is your baseline expectation baked in there?
We think that we would be relatively flat even with the rate hike. Given the current rate curve, we don't feel we have to reprice the entire back book, and we'll continue to manage our deposit costs diligently as we always have been, and you've seen us do so.
Got it. If I can squeeze in just one more. For buybacks, is tangible common equity ratio a binding constraint for you when you consider the amount of buybacks, or not so much?
Not in light of where our capital levels are today.
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Elian with JPMorgan.
Joseph, if I step back to the three variables you're looking at for the buyback, you're projecting continued growth in core earnings, but then credit quality of the loan portfolio took a step back this quarter, and you're still seeing elevated CRE payoffs and strong C&I growth. To me, that doesn't sound like a recipe to deploy much of the buyback, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.
I don't see that necessarily being a governor on the buybacks. It's more when people were asking the question about future dollars being dedicated to the buyback. I said that's what we'll be using as a guide is, are we performing well on those three variables.
Okay. And then my follow-up, you reduced the fee income outlook, I think you attributed some of that to gain on sale. It still implies a meaningful step-up in the second half. Could you comment on some of the drivers you expect in 3Q and 4Q?
A lot of this is driven by Rich's businesses. We do expect to see more capital markets and syndication fee income, FX swap and derivatives income as we're originating more CRE and C&I loans. We expect more CRE fee income as we originate. We expect more fees from the consumer or retail side of the bank, including deposit fees. And even though we've taken our gain on sale down from our previous forecast because of the interest rate environment, I think we still think we might see a little bit more gain on sale versus Q1 and Q2, certainly in Q3. Q4, there's going to be seasonality again, but certainly in Q3. So most of it is coming from the expansion of the commercial business.
Anthony, I would agree, largely driven by loan originations, which are largely floating rate, we are experiencing good opportunities for interest rate hedging with those customers, including not just the C&I book, but as the CRE book. We start to do more new business in commercial real estate. There are very good interest rate hedging opportunities. Our commercial clients are often sourcing or selling internationally. So there's FX opportunities. We would consider that flow business. We are — with the volume of originations, we have very good loan origination fees, which amortize over the life of the loan or can be taken up front if we are a lead arranger or a joint lead arranger where we can capture immediate syndication fee income. On the operating services side with more operational deposits, we expect to continue to have higher service charges on deposits. We're also looking aggressively at our back book of deposit customers across the bank and being more disciplined around fee collection for services rendered, and that's providing some good uplift. We're also expanding the product set around commercial card capabilities and wealth management, and that is driving fees, both in the consumer bank and in the private banking and wealth side of the organization.
Our next question comes from the line of Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.
Staying on the C&I track and the C&I business, with all those goals and with all those expectations on relationship wins, how has talent competition progressed? You really hire 30-plus people this past quarter? Has there been any shift in the competitive landscape for C&I talent?
Great. From a talent perspective, we've added high-quality, seasoned bankers. We've added 62 professionals across the C&I businesses in the first half of 2026: 36 client coverage sales producers and another 26 credit support professionals, credit underwriters, portfolio management and product subject matter experts. The outlook for talent — the reason I'm constructive about the outlook is certainly with other banks going through M&A integration regionally around the country, and with our ability to grow, I think bankers view our platform as very attractive given the stated enterprise goal to grow our commercial businesses and our corporate businesses over the next number of coming years. So they view our platform as very constructive, a great next place for their next part of their career development. We do expect to continue to hire, albeit at a slightly lower pace in quarters three and four; an expectation of another 20 to 30 additional producers and credit underwriting and product sales professionals as we look out into the third and fourth quarters.
I really appreciate that. Going from that portfolio to the NII range, what's kind of — there's been plenty of discussion about it, but just to kind of sum up, what are some of the wildcards that gate the high end or low end of the NII range?
If you look at the adjustment to the forecast this quarter, we saw higher CRE payoffs, paydown and amortization. We thought it would be around $800 million or so; in the last couple of quarters, it's been over $1.5 billion. Deposit growth has been more on the interest-bearing versus noninterest-bearing side. That has influenced NII. Nonaccruals ticked up slightly in the quarter, and we think we're going to reduce them, but we're going to end the year slightly higher than we previously forecasted. And then the higher-for-longer rates mean that we've moved our mortgage gain on sale revenues down slightly. So there's a lot of things at play. I think we've proven our ability to originate new C&I loans and we expect we will continue to build up the pace. The rate of CRE payoffs we think with new originations and retention strategies, we can limit that going forward, but that's obviously a factor. We're working to bring down those nonaccruals. We're going to work to grow deposits, but do so without significantly increasing our deposit costs and reduce wholesale borrowings. So there's a lot of variables, but we feel good about the guidance that we've put out this quarter.
On those variables, it sounds like you've tweaked payoffs, you've tweaked your deposit mix expectations. Will you continue to do that to maintain your current guide? Will you be more aggressive on retaining multifamily or some CRE if it keeps that guide more set? Just wanted to make sure that you're doing as much as you can to adjust to get to your targets.
We absolutely are. We've been hiring CRE bankers across the country. We think that will drive more new originations. And we are looking to retain more of the better quality CRE loans, and we'll be more aggressive in our strategy and pricing in order to retain those loans.
Our final question will come from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW.
Great. Lee, can you help us on the tax rate for the back half and into '27 as the earnings ramp?
Yes. The tax rate in Q2 was 28.2%. Our marginal tax rate is 26.5%. So we're a little bit north of that because of various add-backs, including FDIC expense. As we get more profitable, you'll see us move more towards our marginal tax rate of 26.5%. So I think the back half of this year will probably be somewhere between 26.5% and 28.2%.
And that concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll hand the call back over to Joseph Otting for any closing comments.
Okay. Thank you very much, operator. We remain focused on executing on our strategic plan, which we've laid out for everybody, including transforming Flagstar into a top-performing regional bank, creating a customer-centric relationship-based culture and effectively managing risk to drive long-term value. So I want to thank you again for taking the time to join us this morning and for your interest in Flagstar Bank. Thank you very much.
And this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.