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BANK BRADESCO(BBDO)Q2 2026 法說會逐字稿

53 段

管理層發言

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Good morning, everyone, and thank you so much for joining us again. We are here once again to speak about our earnings results, especially for the second quarter of 2026. We are talking to you straight from our studios at Cidade de Deus. Now it's 10:31, August 6. So we are here live and alive and kicking. If I even say this, probably the young generation doesn't even know what it is. So we are here broadcasting live from Cidade de Deus. I am here to present our results. As you've seen from yesterday's publication, we reached BRL 7.1 billion net income in the second quarter and 16.2% growth year-on-year, 3.5% quarter-over-quarter with ROAE of 16.2%, higher than what the market expected because the market expected that we would reach 16% ROAE in the last quarter of this year. Here, I bring a summary of our presentation. I'm not going to elaborate on any of those topics in depth now. Loan portfolio is growing with more guarantees and a very good risk-adjusted return. In the past two months, our IR department has been talking to investors, and they are asking us about what is happening to the macro landscape and the credit landscape. I will talk about our standing vis-à-vis revenue and also our accelerated transformation projects. I will talk about cause and effect. This is what I always do: what is behind this result and why we are growing our loan portfolio. We posted growth of 11.6% year-on-year, even more than quarter-over-quarter. The portfolio reached BRL 1.137 billion and, on a CAGR basis, we posted 11.7% growth. Why is that? That is explained because we have high penetration and commercial traction. We have a very good and well-equipped commercial team with a lot of intelligence behind it, and we have digital channels. I will talk about the FGO. We were the first bank to provide a very seamless FGO experience. This is happening throughout the organization, and I will go through all of that in my comments. The cause is commercial traction in all business segments and business lines — no exceptions. This culminates in the growth of our loan portfolio. Further on, I'll talk about other revenue line items. SME posted 16.1% year-on-year despite the baseline of the same period last year. This is a big highlight. Large corporates grew 12.7% year-on-year; I will elaborate on large companies later. Individuals grew 8.4% year-on-year. That means we are growing in different lines and in all aspects that we wanted to grow. We are also growing in customers with good ratings, with good credit modeling and adequate policies in every segment we operate. I would like you to remember one number because SME grew 5.1% quarter-over-quarter. This portfolio year-on-year grew BRL 37 billion. Keep that number in mind because we will talk about it later. I have other figures for you here because they are in tune with what I said before. Where do we want to grow? Earmarked credit, mostly FGO, FGI, mortgage, including the businessman plan. We grew 21.4% compared to 12.7% in the market. When I look at non-earmarked credit, we grew slightly lower than the financial system. Then we have other unsecured lines where we don't have a lot of risk appetite. We grew more in corporate because we have more secure lines in corporate. We have traction in payroll-deductible loans, and we are also very comfortable in direct credit to consumers. Corporate grew 14.7% versus 7.9% market growth. We are growing in the lines we want to grow, focusing our teams and our digital channels on these particular lines. Now let's zoom into our expanded loan portfolio. All of them have risk-adjusted return and are periodically assessed, myself included. Last week we looked at two other portfolios. We are constantly reviewing and making adjustments. We are leaders in some areas, but the main focus is risk-adjusted return. I refer to the wholesale bank with this level of growth. Where did we grow in wholesale banking? We will talk about agribusiness, but we were leaders in fixed income origination and also securities; part of our securities go to the OPD portfolio, which is origination for distribution. We distribute to the market and then go into the secondary market to optimize capital and profit. Wholesale portfolio has its ups and downs. It can go up and then go down. We grew in the rural area — agribusiness — with M&A opportunities in very specific lines. There were two operations: one in agribusiness, an M&A with a AAA client, and another client with very good ratings but with extreme liquidity. In those two transactions alone, we posted BRL 6 billion in the wholesale bank. We also grew a lot in the Plano Empresário or entrepreneur plan. So we grew in different segments in the wholesale bank and also in SME. SME is posting considerable growth. We also focus on individual segments. Where else? We are the largest funders of aviation leasing with 64% market share. All that was done in this first quarter in terms of aircraft financed to companies and on the wealth management side — 64% market share. We are leaders in aircraft leasing, particularly among clients that have very well-positioned and collateralized risk management. Returning to wholesale and SME: I'm talking about individuals plus SMEs in the expanded loan portfolio and the level of growth we posted. Then origination: the average monthly origination in these lines for wholesale and SME quarter-on-quarter was mostly in FGI and FGO and also mortgage and also on the business side. In other products where risk appetite is lower, there was a decline in average origination by 7.7%. Now we move to tactics and strategic moves. Let's look at the mix of our loan portfolio and FGI/FGO origination. There's a lot of competition in this area among incumbent banks. We were #1 in market share with 21.6% market share. The same goes for the entire year of 2025. In the quarter, our origination was up 52.7% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2026. Looking at retail and SME — the last available data from the Central Bank for clients that earn up to BRL 2 million a year — since the onset of the plan we saw new growth surpassing 70% market share and our FGI/FGO portfolio grew 64.5% year-on-year. This is an extremely secure portfolio. There are five lines of FGI and FGO, and we operate in all of them. Later I will talk about the effects on NPL over 90 days and cost of risk. Now, credit card: the bulk of the growth is in high-income clients with lower appetite in lower-income segments. We are being very cautious here. We still have clients that have lower income who pay on time — payroll clients and clients from our partnerships. These lower incomes have been losing share in the portfolio in the past 30 months, but they are still present. Looking at credit card delinquencies, delays come from all cohorts; about 80% comes from cohorts from 2019. Most of the time, our clients who had their payroll with us were in dire straits, lost jobs or faced difficulties. This doesn't apply to newer cohorts. Credit card is a relationship product. We choose the right clients with the right ratings and an assertive credit policy. Every time we look at credit card, we consider cost of risk and provisions — eight times more than what we used to do in the past. Moving to vehicles, we recorded growth of 26.8% year-on-year. We were leaders in some quadrants of vehicle financing — heavy vehicles, light vehicles and semi-new or used vehicles — but not leaders in new heavy vehicles where the risk-adjusted return is lower. Last year I said we would start operating in vehicle segments because we saw opportunities. We completely changed our operating circuit and platform. We added machine learning and AI behind pricing, risk modeling, credit policy and pricing for clients and dealers. Customer experience changed completely. We delivered different experiences for dealers and clients and increased our share where we have higher risk-adjusted return. When I talk about semi-new vehicles or used vehicles, I mean cars about five to six years old depending on client ratings; we are not financing 20-year-old vehicles. Our appetite for motorcycles is moderate; other banks operate more in that line. When we grow this portfolio, on average we say cost of risk is around 1% according to provision rules. For a delinquent client, there is always someone paying late; at the start, we have around 12% on top of the balance of that client in terms of cost of risk. That explains the dynamic of over-90 and cost of risk. Payroll loan was up 9.3%. If you look at the full year of 2025, in some quarters we were growing at 5%, and we expanded our growth since then. Where did we grow the most? Public payroll: year-over-year we grew 88% and continue to grow public payroll loans. We are the largest private bank in public payroll loans. In private payroll loans, we are just behind two government banks. Delinquency on payroll loans is important for portfolio management and risk control. Market delinquency is 3.3% and ours is 2.5% overall. When looking at the private segment, the market without Bradesco has over-90 delinquency of 8.9% whereas ours is 4.7%. Moving to agribusiness: it grew almost 25% year-on-year. In the wholesale bank, I mentioned one M&A event with a large client where wholesale increases with guarantees, secured AA and AAA clients. We believe in Brazilian agribusiness; it is cyclical but there are many good clients. We continue to operate in this market with good ratings. Looking at the agribusiness individuals portfolio, June compared to December 2025 shows a decline of 0.6%. For over-90 NPL in this segment, the market without Bradesco went from 7.3% to 7.6% in March, and Bradesco went from 5% to 4.6%, meaning our delinquency is well under control excluding John Deere Bank which has higher delinquency and affects our NPL 15 to 90. Our market share in Brazilian agribusiness is about 12% (estimate). Our share in court reorganization is 3.5%, and we monitor this closely. This percentage is much lower compared to the market, showing how we manage our portfolio with risk-adjusted returns and portfolio control, being selective with clients. Regarding secured lines: this production chart refers to the expanded loan portfolio for individuals and SMEs. Origination, FGI and FGO and mortgage for individuals and corporate gained traction last quarter. Payroll loan is included. Spreads: first, absolute numbers go down due to fine-tuning of risk, new modeling, risk appetite. Spreads in other lines were up 11% compared to the third quarter of 2025. On the right side of the chart, guaranteed claim periods from government programs like FGI and FGO take 180 to 185 days to receive payment; we are within stop-loss because of the rules. At FGO you have 100% coverage corrected for inflation, and our stop-loss is foreseen for each one. There are two phenomena affecting cost of risk: first, according to the accounting rules, while you wait for the guaranteed payment period, provisions are recorded. It's different than clean credit: we get provisions until the guarantee claim period, and then we reverse provisions when the guarantee is paid. Second, production peaks in March-October last year when we became leaders. Now we see maturity peaks in the grace period which put pressure on over-90 until the curve stops growing. We are not worried about that. Loan quality indicators: over-90 was up 10 basis points, flat for individuals as well; SMEs saw increases due to government lines FGI and FGO in the previous quarter and this quarter, putting pressure until maturities are settled. Wholesale is 0.2%. Loan portfolio by stages: a footnote mentions NPL 15 to 90 with 30 basis points of variation mostly from John Deere Bank that had variations in the third quarter. Equipment has recovery and updating time; Stage 3 increased by 10 basis points due to a specific wholesale client; the bulk of the provision came last quarter and we did a little this quarter. It was duly provisioned; part of it involved derivatives and securities and the client restructured with bondholders. We do not comment on specific cases. Stage 2 variation of 0.6 was basically justified by FGI/FGO at approximately 0.2 and John Deere Bank pressure. The remainder is diluted in the portfolio, and our delinquency levels are lower compared to the market. Looking at the restructured portfolio, it was decreasing over time and we are reaching a balance. The variation you see comes from that client that moved to Stage 3; if it weren't for that one, even with the Desenrola program, we would have let it go. It is covered today and within expected loss. Desenrola results up to June are public. What was the impact on over-90? Cost of risk in Brazil, at the margin, is almost null in some policies; this was enforced into July and extended to August. In the third quarter we will revisit it. Our secured portfolio is up to 61%, and 69% secured loans for individuals; this is cause and effect and diligent portfolio management. We are working more with secured lines in the mix, increasing secured exposure. Another effect of loan portfolio growth is total revenue growth which reached BRL 37.6 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year. Total net interest income was almost BRL 20.9 billion. Fee and commission income was BRL 10.5 billion. I will comment on that later. Our insurance group has shown great resilience every quarter with good returns and 8.3% growth. For the second quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2026 our CAGR is 12.5%. The loan portfolio with more guarantees generates these results. I read some investor comments about client NII and market NII. Market NII was BRL 700 million this quarter, a 21.7% growth, thanks to our treasury team working well in trading, ALM, energy desk, client desk and so on. People said market NII grew 22%, but client NII grew almost 14% year-on-year. Market NII year-on-year increased by about BRL 350 million, i.e., twofold. Client NII went from BRL 17.8 billion to BRL 20.2 billion — BRL 2.5 billion of absolute growth. Client NII is not only from the loan portfolio; liabilities grew meaningfully and drove this growth. Cost of risk grew but was flat in proportion at 3.5% with the FGO/FGI and John Deere effects. Client NII net of provisions was 4.5%, reflecting cost of risk. Growth is not dramatic; if you look at our loan portfolio at the end of 2023, we grew 30% in 30 months — when you grow you call for more provisions and cost of risk increases. On our commercial traction and client penetration, fee and commission income grew 1.7%. We are within guidance and I highlight resilience: consortiums and asset management both grew 10%; custodian brokerage services grew 26.4%. Agro brokerage and agro markets recorded strong results combined with one broker serving individuals and institutional clients. The earnings release breaks fee and commission into nine lines; in practice there are at least 15 sublines. We have revenue diversification with at least a 15% share outside banking credit. Capital markets decreased year-on-year due to a very strong second quarter last year; we ranked first in local origination and M&A. We generated BRL 1 billion more in revenue in 12 months compared to 2023, with resilience. Other revenue lines: insurance, pension plans and savings bonds — a robust quarter with 28.3% growth in net income reaching BRL 2.9 billion. Insurance operations showed total income up 8.3% year-on-year, 14% in the half, and the operating/technical result was higher than financial in the quarter and half. In the new auto platform, clients can choose insurance at sale; production in these two lines in 2025 through our Bradesco Financiamentos network grew almost 100%. ROAE quarterly nearly 22.8% and technical provisions around 10% with BRL 467 billion provisions in the largest insurance group in Latin America. Operating expenses grew 3.4% year-on-year. We continue reviewing our footprint and investing in transformation. Efficiency gains are underway; some lines like installations had negative variations. 3.4% expense growth is below inflation. Capital: I will be available to discuss the increase approved by the Board. We went from common equity from 0.9% and we are at 12.2% and expect Bradsaúde to move that to 13.6% and 15.1% Tier 1 in the next period. We have many deliverables in transformation; I call attention to Bradesco Principal, which will have almost 800,000 clients delivered. Prime has almost 4.3 million clients and Bradesco fully digital has 36 million in the middle of the year — going over 40 million. We are delivering new features for individuals and corporate clients, NF-e issuance, gains in productivity, and intensive AI use. Two final screens to summarize: consistent net income growth step by step, resilience and belief in what we are doing. Operating result is growing over 14% with revenues growing double digits. We are a conglomerate with revenue diversification across banking, payments and subsidiaries like consortium and insurance, which gives resilience. The transformation plan is clear and generating competitiveness in efficiency and revenues. Portfolio is growing safely with more guarantees and good risk-adjusted return — our bible. We ranked first in fixed income M&A, vehicle financing and government lines, FGO/FGI, consortiums and the insurance group — largest in Latin America. The objective is an optimum of risk-adjusted returns with scale and absolute revenue, strengthening the balance sheet to unleash the value of Bradsaúde. We focus on increasing tangible capital of the organization. All of that with pragmatism. We were awarded many prizes. If you want to know more, look at the release. I conclude with our platform Meu Bradesco (My Bradesco), focused on hyperpersonalization: it belongs to our clients; they come first. Meu Bradesco is already hyperpersonalized and will grow more. Hyperpersonalization with innovation and AI, with new experiences that are never less humane. BIA celebrates ten years with Renato and his team; BIA is now BIA Gen AI serving all clients, available to 100% of clients with access. With this accuracy we had 74 million interactions; it is transactional and conversational. You can do your Pix through BIA and other transactions. Throughout this semester you'll see other technological but humane experiences connecting digital channels with clients and sales strength. We will see the launch of Meu Bradesco across social networks and other media. Thank you for your patience. I know I took longer to explain. Now we're going to Q&A and I'm here live with my friends Andre Carvalho, Head of IR, and Cassiano Scarpelli, CFO, to answer your questions. Thank you so much. Thanks for participating.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Thank you, Marcelo and Cassiano. Good morning to you all. I would like to remind you that Noronha, the CEO of Bradesco Seguros, and Carlos Marinelli from Bradsaúde are also joining us remotely. If you want to send your questions, they can be submitted in Portuguese or English. Use the e-mail investidores@bradesco.com.br or WhatsApp 117443-8238, or point your camera to the QR code on the screen.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Andre, if you allow me. Sometimes we forget to say a few things. I would just like to go back for one second. I want to revisit our presentation regarding the SME portfolio and that BRL 37 billion number. When I said our FGI and FGO grew 64.5%, BRL 31 billion of the BRL 37 billion came from there year-on-year. The other BRL 6 billion came mostly from leasing and direct credit to consumers. We finance aircraft, jets and big boats on the wealth management side and the entrepreneur plan. SME growth was mostly based on secured lines, secured credit. I apologize for the interruption; I didn't want to leave that information behind.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

So first question from Mario Pierry with Bank of America.

分析師問答

Mario PierryAnalyst (Bank of America)

Congrats on your results. Noronha, I would like to focus on the capital slide. You show your common equity Tier 1 is 11% and you still have 140 basis points to recognize from the Bradsaúde transaction. I want to understand why there is a delay in acknowledging that 140 basis points, and what else is missing for you to be able to recognize it. With that you would reach 12.7% CET1. You just announced BRL 10 billion of capital increase, which will take another 90 basis points and get you to 13.6%. Some investors are skeptical about needing so much capital now. Why do you need such a high level of common equity at this point?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Mario, thank you for the question and the opportunity to address investors and analysts. First, strong capital is always healthy for a banking organization. We look at benchmarks; for example, JPMorgan has about 15% common equity. Strong common equity is positive. We were questioned about this and we have strict capital discipline. When we provide more collateralized credit we can allocate capital better — better risk-adjusted return. We have already recognized part of the Bradsaúde capital benefit; the remaining difference is a matter of process and timing related to P&L delivery and regulatory green light. Regarding the capital increase, it was a decision by shareholders and controlling shareholders who are very capitalized. They view the bank and the overall organization as having returns above cost of capital. They saw an opportunity to strengthen the franchise and expressed confidence in management and the transformation plan. That's why we decided to anchor at least BRL 8 billion out of the BRL 10 billion. Having common equity above 13% is not a sin; different organizations follow different policies. We are going through strong transformation and see opportunities to take larger steps in delivery. This level gives us resilience and shows controlling shareholders' trust. Cassiano has something to add.

Cassiano ScarpelliCFO

We have been talking to the market about tangible capital. The BRL 10 billion is directly related to tangible capital. It opens possibilities and makes the bank more robust. It gives us comfort to operate under different macro scenarios and to leverage the business. The BRL 8 billion commitment from controlling shareholders provides additional comfort. We decided to anticipate the IOC so shareholders could strike a financial balance close to what was suggested in terms of capital raise. We monitor tangible capital versus DTA closely. This is the rationale behind the capital increase.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Your question is important. We always monitor tangible capital with a magnifying lens, including tax credit. We discussed timing with our Board. We released the capital move early because on the 29th we had a Board meeting to approve it and we had to disclose it to the market. On the 31st we had another IOC payment. Some long-term shareholders — individuals, family holdings and institutional investors — may have wanted to participate. We were concerned about those shareholders and their need to adjust portfolios, so we released the information earlier to be respectful to them.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Thank you, Marcelo and Mario. We have a stronger P&L, a better revenue outlook and better tangible capital. Next question from Navarro with Santander Bank.

Henrique NavarroAnalyst (Santander)

My question is actually a request. I want to hear Noronha and Bradesco’s view on the credit landscape for this year and next year. There is a debate saying the challenging credit scenario is structural and could remain challenging through the end of 2026 and into 2027. Bradesco has a segmented profile with slightly lower-income individuals. How do you see Bradesco in this potential structural scenario? Should analysts assume a slightly higher cost of risk going into 2027? Should we assume lower portfolio growth or reduced cross-sell and fee income? Help us understand what to expect.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Navarro, thanks for joining us. A few factors: household income commitment and current interest rates matter. Yesterday the Selic moved from 14.5% to 14% and inflation indicators make the credit landscape challenging in Brazil. If company EBITDA is lower, interest rates pressure performance. Regarding SMEs at Bradesco, you should look at the composition. Our SME growth year-on-year was BRL 37 billion and BRL 31 billion of that was FGO/FGI within stop-loss — minimal loss exposure. The remainder comes from Plano Empresário and middle market, companies with higher formality. Our appetite for lower-income clients is much lower than in the past. For example, clean personal loans accounted for slightly above 15% of our individuals' loan portfolio in 2023; today they are approximately 12%. Our FGI/FGO portfolio is close to BRL 80 billion and is resilient. Regarding NPL over 90 and cost of risk, cost of risk increases when you grow with FGO/FGI due to guarantee claim timing of 120–185 days — provisions are called during that period. Our production peak last year from March to October is causing maturity peaks now, putting pressure on cost of risk. Agribusiness consolidation, such as John Deere Bank, can also add pressure. But the portfolio growth is largely collateralized and secured. Corporate grew BRL 70 billion with secured lines and good ratings, SME BRL 37 billion. Wholesale portfolio fluctuates because much of it is origination for distribution and secondary-market activity. We finance aircraft and other assets. The market has its own risks, but we monitor NPLs closely. Private payroll loan over-90 without Bradesco was 8.9% versus our 4.7% — we operate with moderate, disciplined origination. While growth and FGO/FGI will bring some higher cost of risk temporarily, we are managing it and do not see additional stress for 2026.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

If you want to think forward, look at our guidance: we work from the center of the guidance upwards.

Thiago Bovolenta BatistaAnalyst (UBS)

My question is about return. ROAE achieved 16%. Could you discuss cost of capital in Brazil, around 15–16%? Can we expect ROAE to continue to grow step by step? Where are the levers? Follow-up on capital: after the capitalization, what's the distribution policy? Will Bradesco pay more? Will it be recurring?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Thiago, thank you. On the capital increase, we will pay the most we can of IOE. That was a controller decision. We have no other plan on the table right now; for the future we will assess dynamics. Regarding ROAE, our cost of capital is below 15% today — after the Selic cut it's close to 14.5%. I see ROAE continuing to grow. When we capitalize, there is a challenge to deliver higher returns since capital increases, but we believe we will continue to grow quarter by quarter. This is not just belief; it is grounded in our plan, transformation, productivity gains, portfolio management and an engaged team of over 70,000 employees.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Next question from Gustavo Schroden from Citibank.

Gustavo SchrodenAnalyst (Citibank)

Congrats on the ROAE improvement and the cost of capital normalization. I want to ask about NII. You mentioned client NII is strong and market NII surprised. How should we think about market NII from now on, given interest rate changes? What is the bank's hedge policy regarding portfolios and what flows to market NII?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Gustavo, great to see you. I'll ask Cassiano to start and then I'll add comments.

Cassiano ScarpelliCFO

Market NII was surprising and is the result of very important work by the treasury and the desks. Commercial traction also helps the client desk, which is perennial, and results from wholesale, energy, trading and client solutions. We don't have a single fixed hedge policy to disclose; we manage exposures daily seeking opportunities to capture the best results when there is an uncoupling in markets. We had specific gains due to interest rate cycles and a slower drop in rates than expected. Commercial traction, energy desk, trading and structured client work have contributed. We achieved and slightly surpassed the soft guidance; I would look at a horizon of BRL 1.5–1.9 billion as reasonable with some upside opportunities. We are satisfied and comfortable with ALM and commercial traction.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

I would add that we have strong risk management with competent teams. Business traction and support to clients across wholesale and middle market have generated business for us. We think exceeding soft guidance is reasonable and achievable; BRL 2 billion is a reasonable horizon given the team and actions.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Meaning the result is here to stay and may even be up from now.

Daniel VazAnalyst (Safra)

Congrats on results and the capital management initiatives. I want to revisit NIM and cost of risk when thinking about risk-adjusted return. If you isolate NIM and cost of risk, liabilities margins are going down due to lower Selic and your exposure with guarantees doesn't show an obvious increment in NIM, perhaps stability. There are upward pressures from worse stages, e.g., John Deere and guarantee claims and Stage 3. Could cost of risk increase beyond current levels due to macro risk even if you’re not taking more credit risk? How should we think about this equation?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Daniel, thank you. I'll ask colleagues to add after my answer. A lower Selic is positive for us: liability growth was significant and is translating into cash management and more relationships. We had moments of low funding costs that helped NII. Cost of risk faces market worsening in some segments — private payroll without Bradesco is higher. Structural aspects like FGI/FGO and agribusiness consolidation create temporary pressure, especially with guarantee timing. For me this is timely and the curve will normalize. I am confident in our NII and NIM in this picture. Client NII, market NII and liabilities growth are driving revenue. Fee and commission had relative lower growth but we see multiple lines and cross-selling levers. Transformation and product improvements, such as the new vehicle platform with integrated dealer and client experience and optional insurance, drove strong production and cross-sell, boosting profitability. I remain positive across revenue levers despite a tighter macro scenario.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Marcelo highlighted transformation and liability cost reductions. Funding grew 19% year-on-year, bringing net money and better margins with lower funding costs. We guided NIM to be roughly flat at around 9% this year: we delivered 9.1% in Q1 and Q2 so far and expect to be in that range.

Yuri FernandesAnalyst (JPMorgan)

Congratulations to the Board for the bold decision. Quick follow-up on FGI/FGO: you mentioned Stage 2 was impacted and there's a timing difference until you collect. Do we see provisioning to Stage 3? Is there carryover into Stage 2? Second, on current accounts, a competitor is cutting checking-account fees significantly; you saw a 3% drop year-on-year but the competitor cut fees by almost 20%. Do you see pressure to accelerate fee cuts or is this fine-tuning?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Yuri, great question. FGI/FGO may spill into Stage 3 in some cases, yes, while you wait for guarantee claims, but typically you recover when guarantees are paid. The 120–185-day timing creates inflows and outflows; there is a dynamic. Wholesale has securities and derivatives that can move exposures to Stage 3 in specific situations, but we are within guarantee periods and comfortable. Portfolio management teams run stop-loss and stress scenarios. Regarding current account fees, the trend is not toward fee growth; there is pressure. However, Bradesco Expresso has posted continuous growth, and new value propositions will smooth out fee declines. Fee recovery will come from consortiums, asset management, investment bank and brokerage. Credit card growth was less pronounced, but other divisions like payments and subsidiaries provide diversification and resiliency. We don't see the need for a broad, accelerated fee-cutting program; we continue fine-tuning.

Cassiano ScarpelliCFO

Yuri, current account is linked to new value propositions and service offerings, not just traditional fees. Bradesco Expresso and digital retail focus will smooth the fee curve; our commercial strength is in digital retail tied to Expresso.

Pedro LeducAnalyst (Itau BBA)

Question on corporate loan portfolio, securities and DCM. Corporate loans grew 7% and TVM almost 9% in securities; origination is strong. Noronha highlighted rankings but we didn't see a corresponding increase in financial advisory revenues. Portfolio grows but fee and LLP didn't correspond. LLP was lower in corporate — I expected higher LLP given origination. Please help reconcile these moving pieces and what to expect in H2.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Pedro, LLP was not zero — around BRL 400 million — due to a slight adjustment in the major case I mentioned. Wholesale may face specific cases that stress at particular moments; we provision promptly when needed. Growth in wholesale was in securities and sureties and guarantees in the Plano Empresário, where we were second in the market. We financed M&A with good guarantees. We keep good coverage levels. DCM fees were lower year-on-year because Q2 last year was very strong. Securities volumes and margins fluctuate unless there's consistent replacement demand in the secondary market. Our business model uses origination for distribution at times and secondary market placement, which produces variable results. Our focus remains risk-adjusted return rather than origination alone. For specific client relationships, we consider the whole relationship and may accept lower RAR on one operation if the overall relationship compensates. You will see these dynamics in H2 as well.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Next question from Eduardo Rosman from BTG.

Eduardo RosmanAnalyst (BTG)

I'd like to revisit directed credit and its sustainability. Many banks and fintechs focus on earmarked credits. How sustainable are the program sizes and returns over time? Should we expect pressure on returns due to increased interest from participants or fiscal impacts?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Eduardo, the bank participates in practically all five lines of FGI/FGO competitively. These resources are finite but present a huge opportunity. First, they are long-term lines with excellent guarantees and attractive risk-adjusted returns if within stop-loss. Second, they generate cross-selling and increase relationship depth. Third, for clients these lines are attractive. Production might vary in the short term but permanence is long-term with lines up to five years and one-year grace periods. We were the largest originator and I don't see immediate pressure on returns for 2026; these are among the best government-promoted lines for corporate credit given the guarantee structure. They are sustainable and supportive of long-term relationships.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Next question from Matheus Guimarães from XP.

Matheus GuimarãesAnalyst (XP)

Congratulations on results. I'd like to discuss private payroll-deductible loans. You reported meaningful growth sequentially and year-on-year. The product has undergone changes and is controversial for some competitors. How do you view the product given new changes and what should we expect for growth going forward?

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Matheus, this product is maturing. Dataprev integration started in July last year and we defined filters; in October we accelerated origination while keeping discipline and RAR. Delinquency is stable: 4.7% in June vs market 8.9% and rising. It's a risky product that serves lower-income customers, so proper filters are key. Recent FGTS guarantees have restrictions and small incremental value. For us, that doesn't materially impact origination.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

We delayed a stronger entrance until Dataprev was fully integrated. We approved credit for individuals and corporate filters. Delinquency metrics show we can originate responsibly. We have capacity for origination and only 7% private payroll market share, so there is room to grow without sacrificing quality. We will continue to grow carefully.

Cassiano ScarpelliCFO

With proper filters and clusters we focus on, it is a good product from A to Z. We will proceed cautiously and focus on the right corporate clients and clusters.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Next question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-LopezAnalyst (HSBC)

Congrats on results and capital increase. Question on insurance: guidance for insurance is 6–8% but H1 was 14%. Should we expect normalization in H2? Also, on tangible equity, which metric are you monitoring? Is it tangible equity to assets or to loans and what level would you like to achieve? In my numbers tangible equity to assets is 5.9% down from 6.5–7%. What target do you have?

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Thank you, Carlos. I think Ney can answer the insurance question.

Ney Ferraz DiasHead of Insurance / Bradesco Seguros

Good morning. Our expectation is to finish H2 pretty much in line with guidance. Q3 and Q4 of 2025 had a higher base, which is usual in insurance. We performed above guidance so far, but with a higher base in H2 last year we expect to deliver close to the midpoint or slightly above the guidance for the year.

Cassiano ScarpelliCFO

Regarding tangible capital, we don't have a strictly defined public metric target. The idea is to have robust capital to support growth and macro uncertainty and to reduce the reliance on tax credits (DTA). The capital increase strengthens the bank for the next cycle. We monitor tangible capital, DTA consumption and other balances internally.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Carlos, the main point is profit and reducing the tax credit gap by increasing tangible capital. Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Next question from Renato Meloni with Autonomous.

Renato MeloniAnalyst (Autonomous)

Congrats on the ROAE. I want to revisit H2 dynamics. You said guidance midpoint to high would imply acceleration in risk-adjusted NII. At the same time portfolio growth is running above guidance, NII net of provisions is flat at 9.1%, and there are provisioning issues. Reconcile these aspects that may pressure risk-adjusted margins.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Renato, Andre can start.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Our step-by-step commitment is to increase net income every quarter, implying by end-2026 net income aligned from the midpoint to the top of guidance. Guidance has five lines and we are confident we will deliver each line within their intervals. We expect insurance from the center upward, services close to the top, expenses toward the floor of guidance, and NII net of provisions slightly below center. This reconciliation should be thought of at the net income level rather than line by line.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

We are delivering strong traction in NII including liability NII and market NII. Fee and commissions income should grow within guidance, as should insurance. Expenses are under control. Everything is within plan step-by-step without taking excessive risk.

OperatorOperator

Next question from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.

Daer (Tito) LabartaAnalyst (Goldman Sachs)

Follow-up on loan growth: two lines. On corporate agribusiness loans jumped 20% quarter; your market share is lower and NPLs improved but larger peers with larger exposure suffered. Why are you comfortable growing there? Second, on vehicles you're gaining share but peers are pulling back; we've seen asset quality issues there. Why are you comfortable growing in these two lines?

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Tito, in corporate wholesale we did specific deals, including M&A in rural credit with AAA and AA clients; two operations totaled BRL 6 billion. These were well-collateralized transactions with specific approvals. We have been deconcentrating the portfolio and the top-10 concentration continues to drop. In agribusiness we focus on very good clients in known sectors. For vehicles, we planned entry last year and targeted four quadrants: light new, light used, heavy and motorcycles. Motorcycles have low appetite; heavy vehicles can be attractive depending on RAR. Light new vehicles have lower RAR so we are not market leaders there. Semi-new vehicles of five to six years old with adequate ratings are the targeted area. We changed the platform, integrated dealer and client experience, applied machine learning, AI for pricing, risk modeling and policies, and increased dealer and client UX. We focus on segments with higher RAR and collateral quality. Cross-selling with insurance also aided profitability. We are confident in our approach and the data-driven platform changes.

Andre CarvalhoHead of Investor Relations

Also note insurance cross-selling in vehicles contributed meaningfully. We will end the Q&A session. Questions that were not answered will be addressed by IR via e-mail. The release material is on the IR website and we are available for follow-up.

Marcelo de NoronhaCEO

Thank you, Andre and Cassiano. Thank you to everyone who listened, to our sell-side colleagues for the questions, to our investors, and to our employees following the release. I want to emphasize my confidence in our delivery across the bank and insurance group. Marinelli recently released Bradsaúde results, which show high returns and distribution synergies in SME and vehicle insurance. I remain confident in our subsidiaries and affiliates. A quick reflection: on February 20 our market capitalization was BRL 240 billion. With Bradsaúde’s net equity of BRL 14 billion, the rest of the conglomerate remains substantial. If we account for the value unlocked by Bradsaúde, we believe there is significant underlying value in the remaining businesses, even after market de-rating and global issues. I have great confidence in what we are delivering. Thank you to everyone who joined us. See you next time. We are always available.

OperatorOperator

This concludes the Q&A and the earnings call.

逐字稿來自第三方供應商(Alpha Vantage),非本平台第一手解析;講者職稱依原始資料呈現,未經正規化。