管理層發言
Good morning, everyone. I am Marcelo Noronha. I'm here live from Cidade de Deus, the headquarters of Bradesco for this earnings release presentation related to the fourth quarter of 2025. Today is February 6, and my watch shows 10:31 a.m. I'll start with a presentation saying that all of this material has been released last night after the market closing, and I believe you had access to it. Our recurring net income is BRL 6.5 billion, growing 20.6% year-on-year, and BRL 24.7 billion for the full year, which is a 26.1% growth, and we have an ROAE of 15.2%, exceeding our cost of capital for the first time in this quarter. Therefore, we will continue to grow our ROAE in the coming quarters and years. I will not go over all operating highlights in detail, as we have discussed in our materials. I would like to share some elements related to our transformation plan, which was published on February 7, 2024, so it will be 2 years as of tomorrow since we released the plan. We started with a diagnosis at Banco Bradesco and drew up a worldwide benchmark with all relevant aspects like technology. From this analysis, we determined our strengths and weaknesses in the bank. Back then, we stated that we have 70 million clients and are leaders in SMEs defined by the Central Bank, which encompasses companies that grow up to BRL 300 million a year. We also indicated high penetration in the high-income segment, and we are proud to have the largest insurance group in Latin America along with a stake in many other companies. We are leveraging our strengths to create a new position with a clear goal to increase competitiveness. We established a deadline of up to 5 years as this transformation wouldn't happen overnight, and it hasn't even been 2 years since our presentation. We came up with a comprehensive plan with 10 main initiatives that have generated over 200 new initiatives. I'll briefly cover some of the highlights and then move back to the core numbers to wrap up the presentation. Afterwards, we will have the Q&A session. Starting with digital retail, we have seen some developments; after year-end, we have 19 million clients fully digital. They are fully assisted through our digital channel using BIA GenAI, which retains 90% of all calls in digital retail. It's also important to note the engagement level. Our efficiency in this client life cycle allows us to reduce direct costs to serve these clients on the digital platform by 40 times. Looking ahead to 2026, we aim to increase from 19 million to approximately 40 million clients, which includes both account holders and non-account holders. Our objective is to reduce the cost to serve while continuing to expand our customer base. For affluent clients, primarily in the principal and prime segments, we upgraded over 3.1 million clients with a new value proposition. We ended the year with 2.3 million prime clients, with 3,500 managers focusing on training within this segment. The accuracy of our BIA team has reached 93% with BIA customers. Additionally, we launched the principal segment in November 2024 with offices in Faria Lima, Campinas, and Leblon and began our expansion process. By the end of last year, we had 62 offices and 36 municipalities with approximately 320,000 clients in this segment, which resulted in a newly differentiated value proposition that we expect to enhance further this year. In terms of expectations for next year across these two affluent segments, we anticipate an upgrade of over 1.5 million clients, reaching 4.7 million clients. For the principal segment, we'll be opening nearly 50 additional offices in São Paulo, bringing us to 70 municipalities by the year's end, aiming for around 800,000 clients by then. While growth won’t happen overnight, we are dedicated to increasing our market share. When it comes to SMEs where we were market leaders with a 14.3% market share, we built a more robust segment. By September 2025, we grew our market share to 16.6%. Our goal is to continuously increase our presence in this segment. We've introduced a new digital model, a value proposition focused mainly on remote service, creating efficiency and allowing us to access these businesses via various points of service. We have over 5,000 managers present at 2,100 service points, ensuring we add value to clients. We are continuing to serve clients through physical channels while focusing on self-service capabilities. Our expectation for 2026 is to expand our penetration in this segment, particularly since it is projected to grow within the financial system. Looking at payments and cash management, we’re working on enhancing our Bradesco Global Solutions to improve our customer-centricity. Our aim is to manage the credit aspect carefully. This includes providing extensive support to different segments of clients, including our life portfolio across various business lines. We are also working on a new pricing model to enhance returns on risk-adjusted investments across all lines. We have hired 250 professionals providing full technology support to improve management models. Our SME growth is showing resilience, particularly in payroll loans. To sum up our objectives, our focus for 2026 will be on maintaining competitiveness through strategic growth and establishing strict risk management. With that said, I would like to touch on our organizational structure, which we initially addressed in our plans, respecting layers, control spans, and bringing our directors closer to their teams, promoting inorganic growth in the insurance sector. We expect our organizational structure to enhance decision-making efficiency. The technology investments we’ve emphasized over this period focus on our AI-first culture, which is more than just GenAI but also involves machine learning to support various initiatives. We witnessed substantial productivity gains; our delivery capacity increased threefold, and we launched significant improvements in cybersecurity. Our commitment to creating a collaborative and engaged workplace has led to a new engagement survey revealing an increase from 74% to 84% engagement. Our focus remains on maintaining a highly skilled team ready to drive our competitive goals. We are very aware of the adjustments needed to meet our metrics and amplify our operations. Shifting to profitability, I must highlight our focus on creating sustainable growth, alongside our net interest income, which reported significant growth. Our expectations for revenues project growth across all segments. In terms of our loan portfolio, we are seeing strong gains thanks to our extensive client base and increased penetrations across various segments. The quality of our loan portfolio remains stable, with loan quality indicators showing that we are prepared to continue our origination efforts while managing risks diligently. Moving forward, we aim to enhance our ongoing valuations. If we maintain this trajectory, we foresee high levels of profitability supported by our comprehensive risk-adjusted approaches. We will ensure rigorous control over our costs as demonstrated through our increased investments—technology guidance illustrates substantial increases, with specific allocations devoted to vital operations. We strive for efficiency and growth within our operating frameworks while anticipating profitability gains from current initiatives. Our emphasis on insurance has seen a substantial return, with our client base rapidly expanding. I appreciate the enduring support from our team, and we are committed to expanding our efforts in each department to bolster our growth efforts moving forward. In closing, I look forward to engaging with everyone further during our Q&A session.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Marcelo and Cassiano. I would like to inform you that Ivan Gontijo, CEO of our Insurance company, is joining us remotely. To begin the Q&A session, I would like to present three options for questions. The first question comes from Pedro Leduc from Itau BBA.
分析師問答
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the presentation and congratulations on this wonderful year in your trajectory. My question is related to how you see the underlying business trends? So we could look at the NII guidance, less LLP. I mean I think you're going to grow low 2-digits, slightly above the portfolio. I just want to understand what's behind it when we think about NII in isolation or LLP, I think these two things have to talk to one another, but to understand what is part of it, so that I will have a good idea of your views about mix, spread, credit quality as you know, the year is just beginning.
Okay. Pedro I will start, Cassiano will start as well. It's good to see you again, Pedro. Our NII remains focused on our standard. We changed our mix for 2025. Secured products remain our main lever. Obviously, the quality of our credit BU allows us to work on any credit line, secured and unsecured. We're very comfortable with the quality of our portfolio and the way we are operating it. The average rate should be maintained until the end of the year. Our LLP should grow in line with our operations. These are the main drivers of our NII, and we will maintain it with a very high degree of engagement.
Okay. I have a few things to add. It's important to say and highlight what you just said. Portfolio mix and spread level always focusing on risk-adjusted return. This is the goal, and I also talked about pricing. The pricing area comes to reinstate that point. I mean we have some very important levers that go through different segments like payroll loans in all of their lines. I'm talking about public and INSS and private. We have approximately slightly above 14% market share. But I would like to remind you that we have the lowest market share on the private side. So we have a lot of opportunities, and we already saw this level of growth. I would just like to add that we are placing our hiring offering. It's 24/7, and this is hyper-customized with microseconds that go and come and already respond, giving us a response about the risk of the borrower, the company, and pricing that is adjusted to risk. Therefore, I'm saying that we will grow in payroll loans. We see a lot of traction coming from the clients. INSS has its own challenges, market challenges. It's not all ours, but in previous quarters, year-over-year, we were growing 5%. Now in this past quarter, we grew 6.8%. But this is payroll loan, SME, we are still growing, and we will continue to grow in lines with secure lines backed by receivables.
The next question is from Mario Pierry with Bank of America.
Congratulations on your results. We recognize that much has been accomplished in the first two years, but there is still a significant amount to achieve moving forward. What you have already shown is that you are headed in the right direction. I have two questions. You incurred an additional expense of BRL 700 million for restructuring, which is nearly double the provisions you reported last year. Could you please clarify what aspects of the restructuring will be prioritized, particularly regarding the number of branches? Additionally, we understand that we are receiving many inquiries from our clients. Your guidance indicates an 8% increase in expenses. At the highest level, you mentioned that 3% of this increase relates to technology investments. Does this imply that the remainder of the bank's expenses will grow or are growing by 5%, consistent with inflation? As you noted, you have already reduced 2,800 points in the past two years. How is it that expenses are not increasing below inflation? This is why the consensus was anticipating a figure closer to BRL 20 million instead of BRL 27.5 million. We believed that the bank's core expenses would be growing below inflation.
Well, thank you for your questions. If you look at our admin expenses, and if you look at some of the lines in our full publication, you will see that third-party services, maintenance, conservation, lease, all of these lines were down, and transportation of currency. So what are the detractors here? I'm just summarizing; there are some that are very positive. But technology has grown by 22% and when we look at it, it will continue to grow. We will continue to invest to increase our competitiveness. Second, I mean, profit sharing; we increased profit, and we paid out more. And the third detractor? I'm not going to refer to small lines. We had some changes on the advertising side. But we found three good opportunities at the end of the year, and we decided to invest like when we launched Principal. And that's when we did the coverage at the airports. It's out of what we expect us to do at that time. And thirdly, there are other expenses that also go through some lawsuits; we have a very good provision coverage. We've been working a lot based on these root causes. And when you work on that root cause, you do not expand the incoming but that is coming down with time. I believe that these lines will be below 27%, 28%. And this is what you look at when you look at expenses or other expenses in addition to expenses with technology. Talking about investments in restructuring, I would tell you that we continue to review the footprint. We were doing less than what we would do in 2025. We will do more than what we did last year. We will open, as I said before, about 50 offices earmarked for Principal. We are also refurbishing some physical stores with private, meaning that we continue to invest in this transformation, making footprint adjustments, and increasing our capacity to invest more and reduce cost to serve in Retail and Digital, where our cost has declined by 40 times.
Well, thank you for your question. There's one more thing I would like to add. In addition to the 3% you mentioned in terms of technology investment, 5% is only related to human resources. Well, that's important to remember, in addition to profit shares. You will see that our expenses are very much under control. There is one more thing because you said that was twice as much as last year. If you look at 2024, it's very close to the number that we posted in 2024. Maybe the difference is about BRL 100 million; 40% higher on average or greater than average. There is another point related to efficiency. Our efficiency ratio was down by 2.2%, from 2.2% to 50%. Our ambition is to reach 40% by 2028, meaning that the trend is downwards in 2026, and this drop will be even more accentuated in '27 '28 when the top line grows by a lot. It's just natural that some operating expenses will see growth as the top line grows.
Next question is from Gustavo Schroden with Citi.
Congratulations on resuming ROAE starting from 10% to 12% now over 15%. I would like to think a little about the investment cycle, particularly linking it with operating efficiency and efficiency ratio. Marcelo, you're very clearly showing, and I heard an interview you gave, when you said that you won't stop investing, but the focus is to maintain competitiveness. I'd like to understand what part of the cycle would you say the bank is in, particularly regarding technology investments or investments in new products or segments? And should we start thinking about benefits coming from operating leverage, operating efficiency, and reducing efficiency ratio, thinking that in 2026, revenue should continue supporting the step-by-step ROAE improvement, so that in '27, we'll start seeing the benefits of operating efficiencies?
Gustavo, I would say that we are in the middle of the cycle. We are not at the end of the cycle. If you look at our plan, we spoke about stretching this until 2028. Along that period, some things are quick wins, but others we invest in for future benefits. We want to continue improving infrastructure and architecture constantly in terms of technology. Overall, I do not see anyone stopping investing in technology; constant growth in investment is crucial. We will focus on areas where efficiency gains might take longer to manifest, but we will manage this trajectory successfully to optimal terms and profitability. We are aiming for a steady increase in our ROAE. We are committed to maintaining our penetration and support for expansion.
Next question is from Daniel Vaz with Safra.
Congratulations on the results and the delivery since the beginning of the strategic plan. I think it's clear how dedicated the management is in readapting the bank and improving the whole quality of the portfolio while still growing. My question focuses on Cielo. Cielo is a strategic asset of yours. You're talking about integrating Cielo, particularly in SMEs, integrating Cielo even more. It's already partially integrated. But in terms of TPV, Cielo had a big difference compared to the network. So perhaps we're thinking about those big accounts, not SMEs. This is an important difference in trajectory. So I'd like to hear from you what is the strategy for the large accounts? Perhaps there's a loss of profitability and you don't want to change that? And in SMEs, you advanced a lot in terms of governmental programs, and that's an important liquidity for the system. But the Cielo part in terms of strategy, the strategy is not so clear to me in 2026, '27. I'd like to understand what is the integration stage we're at.
Well, thank you, Daniel, for the questions. Regarding Cielo, it has also undergone a significant transformation. We created separate teams to connect with Wholesale and Corporate Retail segments. Our main aim is to enhance logistics and improve upon existing services with new pricing. We're introducing various tap-on-phone options and optimizing cash management - this integration will answer all the concerns you articulated. However, there were cases where profit margins were sacrificed for TPV, as we would rather maintain profitability than take a loss. Our focus remains on expanding our footprint with SMEs, serving government clients effectively. Our projections show promising growth alongside our technological advancements, including improved modeling through our Credit BU. Other segments like the technology investments contribute significantly to our operational success.
This is one of the important pillars of technology this year. We created our app for business with a totally different technology embedded. We are increasing competitiveness with Cielo being integrated and migrating 500,000 clients to this new experience. This serves to enhance our overall strategic roadmap.
Next question from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.
Your long-term perspective is appreciated, and I understand that investing in the future can be challenging, but you are making gradual improvements, which is commendable. My question pertains to capital. The CET1 ratio is nearly 11%, specifically at 11.2% for this quarter. However, I foresee some potential hurdles for 2026, particularly with prudential adjustments, such as the 49.66% operating risk. Could you provide insights into the capital outlook? Should we expect the CET1 ratio to stay around 11%, or might it dip slightly before being increased gradually? Additionally, regarding your portfolio growth, you’ve communicated a robust growth message and mentioned a solid traction for the bank. However, the 9.5% growth in the portfolio alongside retained profits may suggest some capital consumption. To reiterate, will the CET1 ratio remain at 11%, or could it potentially rise above that? Any further information on CET1 would be helpful.
Thank you. You are constantly provoking us about this topic, and I really enjoy your provocations. So thank you again for joining us today. I would like Andre to start answering your question, and then I will follow through.
In terms of CET1 of around 11%, that's what we expect to have throughout 2026. We are discussing a loan book growing at 9.5%, and we look at CET1 of 9.2% in the first quarter, increasing relative to what it was in 2025. Our capital will absorb that portfolio growth increase. Our baseline is 11%. There might be fluctuations, but we are very confident in maintaining this target.
Yuri, I just want to add, I think we can surprise you with our CET or common equity. And of course, net income will grow and our return as well. We're confident about everything we're doing.
Next question from Santander Bank.
I would just like to revisit the payroll loan. I think you said something about it, but if you could elaborate a bit more about your appetite and expectations for payroll loans, particularly private payroll loans? And I know that on the public side, you gained some important and relevant market share.
We are very well-positioned to grow. Gaining market share does depend on the competition, but I think we are very well positioned for that. We have grown with our public side, INSS is also positioned well, but on the private side, we tend to increase our share, deploying our models as we've mentioned. Therefore, the traction we saw in previous quarters will continue.
Next question from Renato Meloni with Autonomous.
I'd like to second my colleagues and congratulate you on the deliverables since the plan was announced. The results show the entire work that was done. Over the year, you showed lots of ROE expansion. However, when I look at the guidance at the midrange, ROE seems similar to that of Q4. So I'd like to understand - do you expect 2026 to be a year of accommodation, or do the uncertainties made you more conservative in the guidance? And if we see this scenario of accommodation, I'd expect that in 2027, we bring ROEs to more reasonable levels. What would be the levers in revenue to increase profitability?
Thank you for the question. I don't see a year of settling for us. I think it's part of our plan, and we will improve step by step by increasing competitiveness. An internal joke we have is that an aircraft will not fly backward, so there's no chance we'll do less than 15%. I'm more optimistic in our targets. We've noted a greater market expectation for our net income to be BRL 30 billion or more, but I want to emphasize that we are continually investing in transformation and this will yield returns. I see high potential for ROE growth through our diverse strategies and across various segments as reaffirmed by our committed growth across SMEs, corporates, insurance, and even our digital strategies.
I can say that everything centers around credit. We are enhancing our growth, ensuring we don't risk high-risk segments but focusing on lower-income markets. Our strong performance in credit is a vivid driver aiding our revenue. There is also significant opportunity within liability management, effectively managing the costs as we diversify our sources of income, which will be vital for us moving forward.
Next question from Thiago Batista with UBS.
My question concerns your insurance group's exceptional performance. Its share has enhanced notably; in recent years, the insurance group's performance dropped significantly but has regained relevance. Looking ahead, where do you envision the future growth of the insurance group? Also, will the bank's power hinder the consumption of DTAs? In 2026, will DTAs start dropping or not?
The insurance group's performance is benefiting the bank by providing dividends and also by itself, allowing for excellent growth. It is crucial for us, assuring minimal impact on the consumption of DTAs. We continue to forecast improvements in sectors, with a particular focus on technology investments that fuel growth. I expect the insurance group to keep its contributions strong moving forward.
We’re very pleased with our position, focusing on the significant transformations in our banking operations. We’ve managed to capture a diverse array of revenue and focus on enhancing engagements to maximize outcomes across the group. We envision closer integration with our offerings and the support of these channels for our strategic development.
Next question from Matheus Guimaraes with XP.
Congrats on the results. I would like to revisit the SME topic. I think Andre spoke about market share, which is significant. Historically, this has been the bank's strength in SMEs, but we've seen some competitors entering this space. Given that this is a vital growth segment for you, what would we expect for 2026 in terms of your SME portfolio?
Matheus, thank you for your question. We are confident about our position within SMEs. I've been working alongside my colleagues closely related to this area and continuing to enhance our distribution mechanisms. Our digital transformation efforts aim to maximize capabilities through government lines and modest investments tailored with sound guarantees. We've been prioritizing retained clients and enhancing our managerial effectiveness, which supports our trajectory.
Next question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez.
Congratulations on your second year under the new management. I had two very brief questions. The first one is about avoiding bad corporate cases. We haven't experienced one this quarter. In your guidance for next year, do you expect corporate defaults to stay where they are? Or do you incorporate some deterioration? The second is, could you comment on what tax rate you expect for next year?
The ответ is no for the first question.
But Andre, you can just start answering on the tax rate, and then I can add if necessary.
The tax rate that we are working is between 16% and 21%, and 18.5% or 19% to calculate fixed net income. The tax rate was 20% in 2025; indeed, it has dropped a little bit. First of all, because we anticipate a higher payment of interest on equity, like I said, BRL 14.5 billion in 2025, with an expectation to go up for above BRL 15 million in 2026. This is not a fixed number; it depends on interest on equity to be announced by the government. Secondly, as Marcelo mentioned, our investments bring about competitive advantages, with consortium and auto financing performing well.
Next question from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.
You may have just answered it, but I wanted to be sure. On the ROE on a pretax basis, it's actually been more stable throughout the year. I think the tax rate will be a little lower, but as your profitability generation improves, I would expect that tax rate to go up. Would you consider this to be the underlying earnings potential of the business? Do you think that keeps improving? Or is this rate sort of low due to tax benefits?
Regarding the operational results, the operational results of the group before taxes grew 27% in 2025, very strong. Looking at 2026, we will post strong operational result growth. It’s not a case of a lower operational results performing alongside a lower tax rate. Our insurance group has a smaller tax rate, and when consolidated, it leads us to an overall smaller tax rate. However, we've managed to measure corporate performance through efficient strategies.
Next question from Andrew Geraghty from Morgan Stanley.
Congratulations on the great results. I know you have discussed credit growth and some expectations for payroll loans, secured loans. I was hoping you could elaborate a bit more on each of the different segments and how they fit into the loan portfolio guidance of 8.5% to 10.5%, where you're expecting better growth, some weaker growth, and where there could be some upside by segment.
We start 2026 much more strongly than we commenced 2025, with our positive surprises in credit and a notable uptick in traction. Our expectations show a trajectory of very strong SMEs, followed by our individual client base, while wholesale remains competitive with the capital market funding. This structured approach provides us with solid prospects across segments, maintaining the focus needed for a successful client integration.
Next question from Eduardo Nishio with Genial.
Still no sound. Let's move on.
I think Cassiano gave you a good backdrop. You saw more than BRL 40 million at the end of '26, starting with BRL 19 million; engagement has increased and improved. We can reduce direct costs to serve by 40 fold. We are committed to this, and we will bring more information about this digital retail. Thank you. With that, we conclude the Q&A session. Questions that couldn't be answered will be followed up by our IR team. Before I turn the floor to Marcelo for his final comments, I must say that this presentation and the full material of this release are available on our IR website.
Thank you, Andre. Thank you, Cassiano. I extend thanks to all our team, who helped us in this video conference. Thank you, our audience, for your interest and the time you've spent with us. This summarizes our transformation, delivering solid results over 8 quarters while staying focused, not losing sight of our strategic plan to improve our ROE and net income with a fully engaged team. We remain open to providing further details on our earnings and transformation program. Thank you all very much for joining us.