Probabilities Fund Management, LLC
- SEC CIK
- 0001608604
- Latest filing
- Feb 11, 2022
The latest 13F from Probabilities Fund Management, LLC covers Q4 2021 (filed Feb 11, 2022): 11 long positions worth $28.1M. The top 10 holdings make up 99.1% of the portfolio, and the largest is Invesco QQQ Trust Series I at 20.2%. Livermore has 4 filings on Form 13F from this institution, going back to Q1 2021.
What changed in Q4 2021
Share counts compared with Q3 2021: how many positions were new, added to, reduced or sold out, and the biggest buys and sells. Dollar amounts are estimated at the quarter-end prices implied by the filing.
- New
- 0
- Added
- 0
- Reduced
- 8
- Est. −$4.21M
- Sold out
- 0
Top 5 holdings
Share of this quarter's portfolio value
- Invesco QQQ Trust Series I46090E10320.2%$5.67M
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF92290836319.9%$5.59M
- DIASPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
- ProShares Tr74347X8239.6%$2.69M
- Direxion Shs ETF Tr25459W8629.5%$2.67M
Biggest buys
New and added positions, by estimated amount bought
None this quarter.
Largest weight increases
New and added positions, by percentage points of the portfolio gained
None this quarter.
Biggest sells
Reduced and sold-out positions, by estimated amount sold
- ProShares Tr74347X831−$916.4KReduced
- Direxion Shs ETF Tr25459W862−$801.7KReduced
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF922908363−$598.1KReduced
- DIASPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
- Invesco QQQ Trust Series I46090E103−$541.0KReduced
Largest weight decreases
Reduced and sold-out positions, by percentage points of the portfolio lost
Metrics
13F metrics for Q4 2021, computed only from the numbers in the filings. Definitions below.
- Portfolio value
- $28.1M
- +$358.0K (+1.3%) vs. prior quarter
- Positions
- 11
- 0 vs. prior quarter
- Top 10 concentration
- 99.1%
- Top 10 as share of value
- Turnover
- 0.0%
- Q4 2021, one quarter
- Average holding period
- 4.0 quarters
- Weighted by value
How these are calculated
- Portfolio value: the market value of all long positions in the 13F, as reported at quarter end, excluding options.
- Top 10 concentration: the combined value of the 10 largest positions as a share of portfolio value.
- Turnover: the smaller of this quarter's estimated purchases and estimated sales, divided by the average of this and last quarter's portfolio value. Estimates multiply the change in shares by the quarter-end price implied by the filing (market value divided by shares); new positions use this quarter's value and sold-out positions last quarter's. Only positions reported in shares count, and it is not calculated when the previous quarter was not filed.
- Average holding period: how many consecutive quarters each current position has been held (including this one; a quarter without the position or without a filing starts the count over), weighted by this quarter's value. Counting starts with the first 13F in Livermore (Q1 2021), so positions held before then are understated.
13F filings by quarter
4 quarters, going back to Q1 2021. Bars show each quarter's 13F portfolio value; quarters without a filing are left blank.
Peak $45.7M (Q1 2021)
| Quarter | Filed | Positions | Value | Top 3 holdings | Changes | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | Feb 11, 2022 | 11 | $28.1M | Invesco QQQ Trust Series IVanguard S&P 500 ETFDIA | vs. Q3 2021 | SEC |
| Q3 2021 | Nov 12, 2021 | 11 | $27.7M | DIAVanguard S&P 500 ETFInvesco QQQ Trust Series I | vs. Q2 2021 | SEC |
| Q2 2021 | Aug 10, 2021 | 13 | $39.3M | Invesco QQQ Trust Series IDIAVanguard S&P 500 ETF | vs. Q1 2021 | SEC |
| Q1 2021 | May 11, 2021 | 12 | $45.7M | Invesco QQQ Trust Series IVanguard S&P 500 ETFDIA | – | SEC |