ZGN 全部逐字稿

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.(ZGN)Q4 2024 法說會逐字稿

89 段

管理層發言

OperatorOperator

Good afternoon and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on Full-Year 2024 Preliminary Revenues. Please note that today's material and presentation are available under zegnagroup.com website. Joining us today, the Ermenegildo Zegna Group leadership team, including the CEO, Gildo Zegna; and CFO, Gianluca Tagliabue. Before we begin, I need to point out that we will make certain forward-looking statements during today's call. Our actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Also, statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described in our SEC filings. Please refer to the forward-looking statements cautionary statement included at page two of today's presentation. I'll now hand over to Gildo Zegna.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for joining today's call. After three challenging quarters, I'm pleased to be here today to talk about the quarter that showed some important progress, even if we all know the sector is still facing uncertainties. Let me start with a few highlights. Q4 ‘24 revenue grew by 3%, both organic and reported, thanks to three main contributors. The Zegna brand, which grew 7% organic, the drag to consumer channel, which grew 8% organically at group level. In the quarter, in particular at Zegna and also TOM FORD FASHION, reported solid results, plus 9% organic in acceleration in all regions. North America, which delivered 15% organic growth, and the region's success was driven by sequential acceleration, growth in Zegna whose performance was significantly better than the group average. Also, the Middle East performed exceptionally well, in particular for Zegna brand.

These results are the outcome of long-term strategies implemented over recent years, as well as some important lessons learned in ’24. In ‘24, we reinforced our talents and organization at brand level. We strengthened the business division at TOM FORD FASHION. We invested in CRM and made-to-measure personalization at Zegna, and enhanced merchandising and retail operations across regions at Thom Browne. We achieved a more balanced geographic presence by increasing focus on core markets like the U.S. and the Middle East, the latter in particular at Zegna. And last, we improved integration across the group. We strengthened strategic committees of our brands and moved towards a more integrated model across corporate functions to drive efficiency and cohesion. Most importantly, the challenges of ‘24 have led us to be more selective about key projects, while deciding to continue to invest in those that are priorities for us.

Let me start by showing what the key priorities for Zegna brand are. ‘24 was the year of bringing VILLA ZEGNA to the world. First, the cementing Zegna's unique legacy in timeless luxury. The recent ‘25 winter season fashion show is another testament to this. At Milano Fashion Week, we unveiled the Zegna Vellus Aureum project, the crown jewel of wool textiles created by our Filiera. Vellus Aureum is the finest wool in the world. This amazingly light, warm, and breathable cloth has been created thanks to the wool trophy awards our family established in Australia since 1963. The collection presented at the show, mostly made by Vellus Aureum, was also inspired by some of my grandfather’s own clothes, giving it the typical Italian, I would say truly a niche taste of our founder and myself. The show has been acclaimed as one of the best of the Men's Fashion Week and one of the best ever for our brand.

Looking ahead, the ZEGNA brand path to ‘25 is clear. Our product population is strong, not just Vellus Aureum, but much more. A legacy made in Italy and customer experience will continue to drive our 360-degree brand strategy. From the way we think about our collections, to the way we communicate our brand and how we serve our customer, or better, our guests. And our text innovation capabilities will continue to give Zegna the forefront of the industry, something highlighted by Vellus Aureum at our most recent show during Men's Fashion Week. We want to grow and strengthen further our community of Zegna brands and further consolidate Zegna leadership in timeless luxury. Let's move now on a few comments on Thom Browne. In ‘24, at Thom Browne, we started to evolve our marketing approach to emphasize not only the sense of our brand, but also the depth of product offering able to cover different tastes, needs, and body shapes.

Customer centricity and personalization are also increasingly important to Thom Browne, which can also draw on a remarkable number of influential friends of the brand to raise awareness of the brand and its product. We have further reinforced the team, both at headquarters and at regional level, including recently new commercial director in the U.S. and EMEA. Looking ahead, we know the evolution of Thom Browne into a more DTC company is not yet complete. We are seeing some early encouraging signs. Full-price sales in our stores are driving retail performance, and the brand is doing well in markets where the team is strong and well established, like Japan and Korea. However, we remain vigilant and will continue to invest in a few selected projects where the brand has already started to build. DTC, women accessories, the invention of the classic collection, and some important new openings, particularly in the United States.

Let's now move to TOM FORD FASHION. TOM FORD FASHION in ‘24 was the year we focused on building a strong organization, laying the foundation for future growth. As you know, along with the sale of their company, we also decided to appoint a new creative director. We have chosen Haider Ackermann for a number of reasons, not only for the clear connection to the TOM FORD legacy, but more importantly, because it's able to create collections that are consistent between men’s and women, supported by strong leader accessories collections. The positive trend in DTC in Q4, driven by healthy com growth, especially in the U.S. and EMEA, is an early initial sign that our actions are starting to pay off. Obviously, the higher the fashion show will be an important stage to reinforce this. Looking ahead for TOM FORD FASHION, ‘25 will continue to be a year of investment. We will invest with two priorities in mind, brand value and the U.S. market.

Let me finally comment on our important Filiera. We continue to invest in our Filiera, our fully integrated Italian supply chain, which sets us apart and gives a unique competitive advantage allowing us to be at the forefront of excellence, innovation, and traceability. In ‘24, we also initiated a plan for a new shoe factory, which should be ready by 2026. Before we get into the financial details, let me make a few additional remarks in anticipation of some of the questions I know you will ask. Regarding profitability, we will talk in March when we release our full P&L results. Today's call is indeed on revenue. But let me make a brief comment. We all know that ‘24 profitability is expected to be impacted by the challenging environment. You also know that in ‘24, we decided to confirm some strategic initiatives that are key to strengthening our brands. I believe it is important for me in this call to reinforce the message that the decision to bear some shorter pains was not easy.

But today we are even more convinced that these decisions were crucial to strengthening our brand's value and driving long-term results. As far as ‘25 is concerned, the year has just begun. So it is premature to draw conclusions about market trends. However, I can anticipate that we are seeing regional trends similar to the end of last year. America remains strong. Europe is doing well with both local customers and tourists. The Middle East continues to do very, very well. In the GCR, the current trend is largely influenced by the timing of the Chinese New Year, and it is still too early to comment on China. With that, I leave it to Gianluca for his comment on the numbers. Thank you.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Thank you, Gildo. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. Let's start from page nine of the presentation where we break down our consolidated revenues by segment. Before going into the numbers, I remind you that I will primarily focus on organic growth, which neutralizes changes in the consolidation perimeter and ForEx. The changes in the perimeter that are neutralized by the organic growth are first TOM FORD FASHION business, which is consolidated since April 29 of 2023. Second, the acquisition of the Korean business for Thom Browne, which occurred on July the 1 ’23. And third, the acquisition of the Zegna Korean business, which occurred on January 1 of this year. Important to underline that only the last one, so Zegna Korea Business, impacted Q4 organic performance. I can also anticipate that starting from Q1 of 2025, organic growth will only neutralize ForEx movement. I also anticipate that in the rest of my presentation, I will focus mainly on Q4 performance, our so-called exit speed.

In Q4, the Zegna segment, which includes both Zegna brand as well as textile, and the minor third-party brand revenues recorded plus 4% organics driven by the Zegna brand, while the textile product line continued to be impacted by a declining B2B demand. Some round segment revenues declined minus 4% with an improving trajectory, compared to the first nine months of the year, while TOM FORD FASHION segment recorded a good plus 4% revenue growth. So let's now move to page 10, where we detail revenue performance by brand. Let me allow at this point to make only a few general comments, while we will go more into detail on the dedicated brand pages. Notwithstanding the sector's uncertainties, Zegna brand continued to show a very solid performance, supported by a clear brand vision, which has been further reinforced in ‘24. Luxury leisurewear and shoes contributed to the growth. Thom Browne revenue shows some improvements, even if we know that the journey to evolve the brand's culture to become a DTC-driven company is still in the making.

TOM FORD FASHION recorded significant acceleration in the quarter, in particular driven by the DTC channel, also thanks to the work that has been done in creating a stronger commercial organization. Talking about textile performance was negative at minus 30% organic, substantially in line with Q3, largely due to a decreasing demand from luxury good brands outside the group, which purchased from our platform. Finally, the other revenues line can now be considered marginal after the acquisition of the TOM FORD International Group and the change in the accounting of the TOM FORD products. Moving to page 11, we see revenues by geographic area, starting from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which represents now 35% of total revenues in full-year ‘24. In Q4, EMEA recorded a plus 5% organic growth, which is the result of a double-digit growth at Zegna Brand and TOM FORD FASHION, and the negative performance at Thom Browne, mainly due to the wholesale channel.

Americas, which represent 27% of full-year revenues, recorded the strong sequential acceleration in Q4, compared to the prior quarter with plus 15% organic growth in Q4. All three brands reported positive performances. Zegna brand in particular recorded outstanding double-digit growth led by the DTC. America's and the U.S. in particular are doing very well for Zegna, also looking at the performance by nationality. Zegna brand saw a strong sequential acceleration of the U.S. Nationality in Q4, both for clients buying domestically and those buying abroad. Moving to the Greater China region, let me highlight that in full-year ‘24, GCR accounted for 26% of total revenues, significantly lowering the incidence of group revenues from the 46% that we have seen in full-year ‘21 when we landed into the public market. In Q4, GCR revenue has declined by 11%, representing a sequential improvement compared to Q3 when it was minus 22%.

Although we present visibility on that market remains limited. In the quarter, Zegna and Thom Browne showed a similar performance, while for TOM FORD FASHION, GCR is less relevant. Looking at the results by nationality, in Q4 rallies from GCR clients, we're down low-teens, slightly improving compared to Q3. I remind you that according to our CRS data in the Zegna brand, around 90% of GCR clients are buying domestically. I finished with the rest of Asia Pacific, 12% of full-year ‘24 revenues, which reported a plus 8% organic in Q4, with Japan and Korea driving the growth, in particular, in Zegna and Thom Browne. Let me now move to page 12, the revenues by distribution channel. Just two very quick comments since we would comment on the following slide, the detail of revenues by channel for each brand. In Q4, DTC grew plus 8% organic with positive growth at all the brands. Wholesale brands have performed in Q4 at minus 7%, driven by a decrease in all brands, partially impacted by the conversions of some wholesale stores into concession in retail.

Let's move to page 13, where we deep dive on the Zegna brand revenues by distribution channel. In Q4 Zegna DTC revenues grew by a healthy 9% organic. The channel now accounts for 86% of the Zegna brand revenues on a full-year basis. Americas, Europe, and the Middle East continue to report very solid double-digit growth rate, while as already commented, GCR was low double-digit negative, thus with a sequential slight improvement versus Q3. In the quarter, the brand closed four net stores, including two openings in Monaco and Wuhan, offset by the closure of small stores and one outlet. Moving to wholesale, Zegna recorded a minus 4% organic in Q4, mostly as a result of conversions that we have already mentioned and that occurred before Q4. Excluding the impact of the conversions, the performance of the channel for the Zegna brand would have been flattish in the quarter. Let's move to page 14, Thom Browne revenues by distribution channel.

In Q4, DTC for Thom Browne was plus 4% organic, driven by store openings. Japan, Korea, and Americas reported double-digit growth in the quarter, while GCR continued to be negative. In the quarter, we opened 10 net directly operating stores, including the opening of Beijing Taikoo Li and some conversion of small shopping shops in Canada from wholesale into retail. In Q4 ‘24, wholesale was down minus 13%, impacted by the well-known decision to streamline part of the business. The improvement in trend compared to prior quarters is also related to early spring collection deliveries, compared to previous spring summer, given that good part of spring summer ‘25 products were already available to ship. As also Gildo commented, some ground evolution into a DTC-led organization is ongoing. And we'll continue also in ‘25 with an impact on the brand's wholesale performance. Based on the orders in our hands, I can anticipate that we expect H1 ‘25 wholesale revenues for Thom Browne to be still down significant double digits with Q1 more impacted given the above-mentioned early delivery of spring, which has been falling into Q4 of 2024.

Let's now move to page 15, TOM FORD’s professional revenues by channel. In Q4, TOM FORD FASHION reported a nice plus 9% organic growth in the DTC channel with a strong double-digit growth in EMEA and solid performance in the U.S. During the quarter, TOM FORD opened two DOS, including Singapore, Paragon, you also saw a picture at the beginning of the presentation, and Madrid, Canalejas. Wholesale reported minus 4% organic in the quarter, reflecting also the impact of two main wholesale conversions into retail; Harrods Man and Saks Women and the decision to further strengthen the DTC channel. I will now stop on the next slide where you can see the facade of the Zegna store in San Moritz with the full winter ‘24 collection. And I hand it over to Paola for the Q&A.

分析師問答

OperatorOperator

Yes, thank you. Thank you, Gianluca. Thank you, Gildo. Operator, can you open the Q&A? Thank you so much.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. Our first question today comes from Anthony Charchafji with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, Anthony.

Anthony CharchafjiAnalyst

Thank you, good morning, it's Anthony from BNP. I have just two questions and I will refrain from asking too many. So the first one would be on TOM FORD in positive territory. How should we think about 2025 as we know that either I command with we present only his first collection in March? Should we see 2025 as a transition year? My second question would be on the Zegna brand. Very strong performance in DTC. Knowing that the top 5% of your clientele is in the high-end and contributes to 40% of the brand sales? Could you maybe quantify their performance versus the rest? Did they outperform? And maybe if you can give us some color on this performance of the high-end by region? Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Thank you, Anthony. I'll leave the first question on TOM FORD to our CEO, Gildo.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Yes. Well, listen, the expectations are high, Anthony, on the fashion show. First of all, because I think we have the right designer, right for the time, right for the brand, right for us. So the first thing is to work on the brand legacy and work on the collection to make sure that the store has the right mix of products that it will present in the fashion show. I think we need a strong consistency between the men's ready-to-wear and the women's ready-to-wear supported by strong leather accessories. I believe that there is not only some room in the retail. We have opened a few stores in ‘24, and I think that the new collection will help reach the productivity of the stores. We have a few more stores that we will open this year. And then I must say that the expectation, but the wholesale also is positive. We are off a full winter ‘25 season, which we did what we had to do, even though we didn't have the collection. So overall, positive in particular, thinking about the U.S. market. You saw the number of Q4 of DTC, TOM FORD, I think we got there in particular, thanks to U.S. even though in Europe we did okay. So we expect both for Zegna, TOM FORD, and Thom Browne, some good trends continuing in the U.S. and so we are ready to go with this new cycle of the brand, of the TOM FORD brand.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Anthony, I go to the second question and if you have any follow-up, we are here. The second question is for Gianluca on the top 5% of our clients, if I understood well.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Yes, so, hi, Anthony. The top 5% represents 40% of the revenues for the Zegna brand. And definitely the top end part of our client pyramid is the one that is driving the most the growth. The cluster, of course, we have the cluster of Zegna friends that are the ones who are above EUR50,000 per year. It's not the 5% representing 40% it's a subset of that, which is definitely growing at a very solid double-digit rate, led by the Americas and followed closely also by Europeans. Then we are seeing also nice growth in the segment that is slightly below that top threshold, which is the ones in the range of 20%, 25% per annum. And I think the opportunity we see, of course, is to continue performing well with Zegna friends on one side, bringing more friends into the club, focusing on what we call viewers. The viewers are the ones spending less than EUR50,000 per year, but that's the potential to go above. We see from the average ticket per transaction, but a relatively low frequency, about 2 to 3 times a year. The goal is to bring up the spending of the doers. And that is for us, I would say, not low-hanging fruit but is intensifying the intimacy with customers that already trust Zegna and can have a higher spending. So for us, the high spending cluster in broad sense is the one that is driving growth so far and will continue to drive.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

I just wanted to add one thing, Anthony, on the 4% top client, what we call our Zegna friend. We are continuing to foster the initiative on those customers, starting from our fashion show and from the relative initiative. And we see that every time we create a personalized collection or we provide something special to them, they respond to our request. So again, we had about 100 top customers that were really excited about the collection and they saw the pieces they can buy to be delivered later on. This is the force of having Filiera that is capable to deliver and not only showing a beautiful product and making it for you only. I think it's a competitive advantage that we'd like to be able to transfer also more to the Thom Browne and TOM FORD brand, you know, thanks to our integrated supply chain. So I think this is the direction to go and we see a lot of benefit from that.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Just for clarification, top 100 customers were the ones invited to the show. I'm not sure that was clear, so just to clarify. Anthony, do you have follow-up?

Anthony CharchafjiAnalyst

Yes. Very clear. Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Thank you.

Anthony CharchafjiAnalyst

Maybe just one if I may. So thanks a lot for the comprehensive answers. Maybe can you just give us the cluster for the Zegna brand in DTC out of the plus 9%? I understand that Americans were significantly strong. Maybe if you can quantify. Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Sorry, if we can quantify, Anthony, what the DTC, but I didn't get to what?

Anthony CharchafjiAnalyst

The clusters, the cluster for the Zegna brand.

OperatorOperator

The clusters. No, we don't. I mean, clearly the clusters when you talk about clusters, this is a DTC, because our CRM is based on data that comes from our retail network. So when we refer to CRM data, you should always think about our retail network, Zegna, DTC mainly.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Yes, but we don't provide further details. The only numbers that we have provided so far is 5% of customers representing 40% of revenues, so…

OperatorOperator

And this is something that we are seeing actually confirming and consistently be there. So it's a very good sign, so that of our strength in CRM and in all the activities we are doing towards our top of the table.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Is there one other point on this is that we are seeing an increase of Zegna friends across the region. This is an important thing, and also in China, where the environment remains more volatile. So I think it's a global process. It's not only an American project. We started from there and we built our muscle and now it's becoming really a global project which I think is going to be bringing interesting results going forward.

OperatorOperator

Okay, can we move to the second question, Anthony, thank you so much.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Oliver Chen with TD Cohen. Please go ahead.

Oliver ChenAnalyst

Hi, Gildo and Gianluca. Thank you. At the Zegna brand, the Americas continue to impress. What are your thoughts on the continued growth of America? The U.S. consumer has been very strong. We'd also love your comments on the Zegna brand as you think about product in the year ahead? What parts of the assortment do you think will show the most growth? And then the China news in terms of it's an evolution, the negative trends in China, how are you managing in terms of inventory trends and dynamic environment? And finally, with Thom Browne, what are your thoughts on awareness as you continue to grow it? It sounds like you're looking to have this brand be more relevant to a broader audience, but what are the factors that are important for growing awareness there? Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Thank you, Oliver, thank you so much. So I think the first and the third one are for our CEO. So Zegna, our thought on Zegna brand in Americas going forward in terms of also merchandising and then on Thom Browne, I'll leave inventory for Gianluca after.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

No, interesting question, Oliver. I think America is very much for Zegna. I mean, they just love what we have put together and they just keep asking for more of what we have. I think this rebranding of Zegna, this personalization of Zegna, this uniqueness of Zegna, also by having a selective distribution and by raising the level of merchandising. Overall, I think that is bringing more excitement to the current Zegna friend in America and opening up to new customers. I think the phenomenon of the prestige that we expanded the family in an exclusive way is also bringing new customers. I think that this Vellus Aureum project, surely, will be a must-have for the top American customers. Our retail business is expanding. I think we see the productivity going up. We have a couple of new doors planned for this year. Plus, I think that we have a very strong leadership with our wholesaler, in particular, the newly formed SAS Group where Zegna is number one in men's, which I think will bring new results in terms of working together in a more focused way.

We just had our top specialty store, which now has consulted about six stores, the best specialty store in America, in which, again, there we are number one, and we keep seeing growth factors. So I think that we are just doing the right things that the American luxury customer likes and expects from us. So I remain positive, but focused on raising the bar in terms of uniqueness. I think that the privilege of our service and the outreach during these events that we create in the stores, mind you, the Vellus Zegna project got started in America six months ago, and we had incredible traction and that has led us to think that this phenomenon could be brought around the world. As a matter of fact, it will be; we cannot share yet where next will be, but there are high interests around that part. So I just can tell you that also the last fashion show, we had many Zegna friends and wholesalers, and they liked our approach to textiles.

I believe that today, our Filiera is a unique way to create unique textiles. I think the best innovation in textiles came from our show. And Americans have been a very clothing-oriented country. The way that Sartori transformed the closing from a rigid clothing to soft clothing really makes a difference in how people want it. We just want to dress up differently. And that's what I have to say.

OperatorOperator

On Thom Browne, thought on the brand awareness.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Thom Browne, listen, brand awareness, I think that is different around the world. I think that one of the goals for this year with Rodrigo and Thom is to increase the brand awareness in America. I think that each brand has to focus on something. Thom Browne's focus will be on having merchandising that keeps being innovative and gives more importance to women. I think he has some beautiful women’s pieces, strengthen their accessories, and go after an American market where, I would say, probably the brand awareness is stronger than the business we do. So I think that is scattered around Geographies. We need to raise the brand awareness across the country. We have to increase our business with more doors. I must say that today, again, the SAS Group has expressed interest to start working together. We have turned now our business with North Summit into concessions. We have opened a few stores. We are moving in the right direction. TOM is strong in Japan and Korea and we want to ensure we keep going at that speed. We just need a stronger China overall. But I think that it is clear what our focus has to be, also in terms of brand awareness for 2025.

OperatorOperator

Okay. And the last one was on GCR. How do we manage inventory? So I’ll leave Gianluca.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

You would answer with two buzzwords. One is the flexibility in planning, both production planning and inventory planning. And the second is cautiousness on open to buy in ‘25. So flexibility is being vertically integrated allows us to take decisions later than the others. We can decide to block some production, we can decide to divert some products that were meant to be directed to China to other markets. We have been flexible along the year, navigating through the uncertainty of China. Looking forward in 2025, we have been cautious on the open-to-buy both on Spring and Fall/Winter '25 being ready for a year that is soft. Of course, again having the supply chain behind us, we have short time to react. If we see the market picking up, we will be quick in taking actions and not lose the opportunity.

OperatorOperator

Okay. Oliver, if you are fine, we can move to the third one or…

Oliver ChenAnalyst

Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

OperatorOperator

Thank you so much. Operator, can you move to the third question? Then we have also a couple of questions from the web, but I will wait.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Louise Singlehurst with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Louise.

Louise SinglehurstAnalyst

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of follow-ups. I'm curious about the U.S. and China markets. You've shown significant improvement as we approach the end of the year. Was this driven more by increased traffic or higher average selling prices? It's clear that the high-end consumer demographic remains strong, as you've highlighted in this call. I'm particularly interested in whether the increase in traffic is especially pronounced as we near the end of the year, especially in the U.S. Regarding China, you mentioned potential volatility in 2025, which seems reasonable given the circumstances we've observed in 2024. Could you provide more insights on this? Specifically, do you think the fluctuations will be related to spending around certain events? With the Chinese New Year approaching, I'm interested if the spending will be more event-focused in China. Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Okay. So I'll leave maybe Gianluca will comment on the DOS performance. If it was traffic ASP, we mentioned good comp, so what was driven? I think Louise, this was a question more general globally. And then I don't know if there was a specific on China. I might ask Gildo to comment on the overall 2025 outlook for China.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

So in terms of drivers, that’s for retail, the one major driver is ASP. ASP has been up strong through the year and that goes along with also the answer that we gave to Anthony before. We are elevating the focus of our action, elevating the clients, and therefore elevating the assortment. So AUR is up strong, traffic especially dragged down by GCR has been negative. We have seen an offset of traffic through conversion. If you combine the two things, the number of tickets at the end of the year, I would say that in the last period was flattish with traffic down, conversion up, neutralizing basically the traffic. So the growth has been mostly driven by conversion and AUR, which were more than offsetting the traffic softness. I think that the rest was on Gildo.

OperatorOperator

Yes.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Well, the same comment applies to China.

OperatorOperator

Exactly.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Same comment applies to China where we are not seeing. If you neutralize from the different calendar of Chinese New Year, we should say that the traffic is sales in China. Our improving trajectory comes from ASP. So it's not traffic; we are not seeing solid traffic inflection point.

OperatorOperator

Of course, I mentioned China, and everyone is aware that it affects the timing of the Chinese New Year. Therefore, analyzing China in the early weeks of 2025 may not provide an accurate picture due to the upcoming Chinese New Year. I would like to ask Gildo if he would like to provide us with more insights on China overall for 2025.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Well, listen, China, we like to be conservative. We said that it's going to be volatile. In particular, for the first half of the year, so far we are positive. But as Paolo said, it's two weeks ahead of the Chinese New Year, compared to the last one. We see some slight positive signs. In that, we just had the drop one. Drop one is the first delivery of our collection in the season. Part of that was Vellus Aureum. We had a capsule collection already anticipated for spring. We have seen that these two new deliveries showed good traction, particularly from affluent customers and also new customers that seem to be younger than the ones we used to know in the past. I think that the traffic surely is nothing different than the traffic was in ‘24. But whenever you come with some new ideas, they respond. I think that the stress we emphasized last year, in which we have to go for a more one-to-one approach, less transactional and more personalized is the way to go.

We are going to continue with the suite project by which we come into cities and do special events by focusing on some particular project or some particular icon. We’re on the pipeline a couple of Salotto openings. Salotto are, as you know, our private rooms in two very important cities. One in Shanghai with plus 66% and the one in Beijing with second place. I think there we put all our strength of innovation and personalization at the advantage of those customers that will be attracted. We are doing everything possible to make it happen and we remain anxious to be ready that China will be what we used to be. In the meantime, we are strengthening other markets. Overall, I think this rebalancing geographies has come out positive, and the same applies to the other two brands for that is surely less strong or than Browne and Zegna in China. I think that it's a good exercise to this geographical rebalancing of the different brands. But we all leave this with a constructive eye and it's going to strengthen, and we will be ready to go whenever China comes back strong. Is that clear?

Louise SinglehurstAnalyst

That is very clear. Thank you. And I wondered if I could just have one other follow-up just on Thom Browne and TOM FORD. Obviously, great to see the inflection and improvement into Q4. I realize there's still some wholesale action happening, but if we look at the DTC for both of those businesses, are we quite confident now of the positive trajectory for '25? Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Yes, absolutely. I leave Gianluca to answer on Thom Browne for…

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Yes. TOM FORD on DTC, we have reported solid single-digit organic and of course, there have been some openings. But the vast majority of that comp comes from like-for-like. So that is also the same for Zegna. So it's not space. We are seeing some finance and some momentum on the TOM FORD side despite the fact that the newly designed collection by IDA is not yet in the stores. At this point, it's commercial execution, it's merchandising execution.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

And these people, I think that we brought in some new talent in retail that made a difference.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

On Thom Browne, I think we are still in the making. The positive sign on DTC comes from space on Thom Browne. We have been changing people as for TOM FORD in the region, in the market, in merchandising. I think we are still in the making in terms of DTC real transformation, but we continue with the same intensity. I think next year the focus will be much more on the U.S. in terms of openings. We are going to open some stores in U.S. that not this next year but this year. So this year we are opening a few stores in U.S., in New York, and in L.A., which for Thom Browne will be kind of new markets because they have very few stores in the U.S. We are going also to open a couple of flagships. Going back to a question before, I think by Oliver in terms of awareness, the flagships will help also raise the awareness of Thom Browne above and beyond the community of the lovers of the brand.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Yes. You know, the truth of the matter is that we are becoming a luxury retailer in all three brands. So I think that we have learned from Zegna the hard way. The success comes with merchandising. I think that in both Browne and FORD, we are reassessing our merchandising mix as we did in Zegna. '24 has been a year where we put our act together and in '25 we start seeing some results. So I think that we are putting our best knowledge on the table to share it. This integration of functions and working together as a group made up of three brands, luxury brands, each one going after a different customer, always on the high side, is very positive. I think that we will see a development, a positive development of this very, very hard work that we put together in terms of organization effort in 2024.

OperatorOperator

And there is also a question, sorry Louise, from the webcast attached to it on Thom Browne, which ask and how advanced is the progress in streamlining the wholesale presence. How long before it's fully done? So I ask Gianluca just to complete on Thom Browne, given that Louise gave me the chance to.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

We have a clear visibility until H1 because at this point, we are not making any forward-looking statement because we have the portfolio of orders in our end. I would say that H1 will be very much like '24 in terms of decline. I think that later in the year in the second part, we should see a bottoming out, bottoming the decline. But until H1 is included, we see the same decline as done in '24. At that point then afterwards we should be in a new normal environment.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Louise. I don't know if you have any follow-up questions. Sorry, I interrupted.

Louise SinglehurstAnalyst

No, that's great. Really clear and wonderful to see the momentum in Q4. Thank you. Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Operator, do we have another question?

OperatorOperator

The next question comes from Natasha Bonnet with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Natasha BonnetAnalyst

Hi, this is Natasha. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. First, regarding the Zegna Brand, there was a 500 basis points acceleration in retail between Q3 and Q4. You noted that the Zegna Brand performed very well, particularly in luxury leisurewear and shoes, which contributed to this growth. Could you provide more details by categories and specifically an update on the Triple Stitch franchise? I believe it accounted for 13% of sales in 2023. Would it be reasonable to estimate that Triple Stitch will represent closer to 15% of sales in 2024? My second question is about Thom Browne. I would like a clarification since you mentioned that space contributed to the strong sequential acceleration seen at retail. Can you separate the contributions from space and like-for-like growth? I know you opened 10 stores in Q4. My third question is about pricing. You mentioned that average unit retail prices were strong in 2024. Could you remind us of the pricing changes you implemented this year? Also, do you have any insights on potential pricing increases for 2025? Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Thank you, Natasha. Regarding the Zegna Brand and the acceleration across categories, I’d like Gianluca to provide some insights. As for Thom Browne's like-for-like performance, Gianluca previously mentioned that it was primarily driven by new store openings. I will leave the discussion on AUR pricing to Gianluca.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

The acceleration I think is part of the drop strategy by which we hit with the right product at the right time, with strong marketing support and by organizing special events in the store across the board. In terms of category, surely the Triple Stitch family, we now have a family composed of four different styles and product is becoming very, very important to, if you want to make sure that the distribution is under control. We are making those products less available to many stores and keeping them focused in our retail. This exclusivity factor is bringing some more interest and not less interest. So that I would say is number one. Number two, I think that we had a good season in terms of outerwear. The Fall/Winter season is stronger for outerwear than the Spring/Summer season. Third one, we had a very strong season in Made to Measure and in the personalized approach to the product. I think it has been a mix of icons or focus projects supported by strong marketing campaigns and by putting clear targets to people that they have to obtain.

Just by making sure to outreach customers and get them in at the right time and making the new arrival kind of wanted. I think that this strategy of think slow and act fast is bringing some good results. Last but not least, I think the fact that we do more commercial shows, we do shows that are less fashion-driven and more if you want style-driven to the products that you have in the store makes it very attractive to the customer. They see the show, they go to the store, and there is connectivity which before it was not enough. This will hold true also for Browne and Ford. We just need to create shows that are more commercial at the luxury level and less theatrical or less focused on fashion. That is what the customer wants. That's the highlights of the season.

OperatorOperator

Yes. Okay, so in terms of average unit rate or average selling price increase, what…

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

The driver is the mix as it was coming out from sort of…

OperatorOperator

Yes.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

It makes the like-for-like price increases set on a low-single-digit to offset basically the cost component inflation. That would also be the case for 2025. I think there was also a question about the incidence of the…

OperatorOperator

Triple Stitch, yes, Natasha was asking if 15% in 2025 is a reasonable number, and I think it is.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Yes. We are in the mid-teens range. We are in the mid-teens range for the Triple Stitch family as a whole. The incidence has of course gone up both for volumes but also for the mix again, because we have increased the incidence of the more sophisticated items like second skin, Triple Stitch, which are the mid-yield or high-yield boots, and they carry an average higher price.

OperatorOperator

Okay, I don't know if there is any other…

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Now with a question, I mentioned it's driven by new openings. The performance of Thom Browne has been negative, and it has also been negative in Q4, although less negative than Q3 and less negative than the average for the year. So while Q4 was the best quarter of the year, it was still negative. We have noticed improvements across the regions. That summarizes the situation regarding Thom Browne.

OperatorOperator

Thank you, Natasha.

Natasha BonnetAnalyst

That was very helpful. Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Shall we go for another question from the call and then I have a couple from the webcast.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. Our final question from the telephone lines comes from Daria Nasledysheva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Daria NasledyshevaAnalyst

Good afternoon. Congratulations on a solid set of results. This is Daria from Bank of America, and I have two questions. The first one would be, could you please comment on sequential trends throughout the quarter? Has there been an improvement throughout, or was there any particular turning point after the third quarter when you started to see the reacceleration in trends? My second question would be, if within the quarter, you could comment on any particular differences in geographic performance across your brand portfolio that you also expect to carry on into next year? And if you could please help us contextualize within different brands in the portfolio. The outperformance that you attribute to brand-specific versus the underlying market improving, because I think that's what investors are trying to answer today, all the good results that we're seeing so far in the sector? Are they really driven by individual brands performing or is it generally the market sentiment and underlying dynamics getting better? Hope it makes sense. Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

Okay. That is very, Daria. Okay. So the first question is basically how the quarter has moved sequentially if there was a sequential improvement. If I understood correctly, are you asking DTC? So yes, I ask Gianluca to answer by each brand. But in any case…

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

In general, we have seen a strong acceleration in America in Q4 was by far much stronger than Q3 for Zegna and TOM FORD.

OperatorOperator

Also in the quarter, month by month...

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

December was the best month out of the three. December was the best month. I think there is something specific about us on the Zegna side. It's, of course, the mood has been welcoming, but Zegna has been on a solid trajectory for some quarters, and I think that Q4 was the coming. The determination of this strategic repositioning on TOM FORD is positive. We are very pleased to see positive signs across all the stores on TOM FORD in the U.S.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Also Europe. I think also Europe, we had a good December in Europe too.

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Yes, the significant growth was primarily in the U.S. Additionally, we experienced our best quarter of the year in Europe, with strong performance in both Continental Europe and the Middle East, where we are not witnessing any signs of slowdown despite macroeconomic uncertainties; we are doing very well. In the Middle East, the Zegna brand is a major contributor. Greater China showed slight improvement compared to Q3, and a modest uptick in comparison to previous quarters, but it’s still early to reach any conclusions, as Gianluca mentioned. We also noted a good sequential performance in the rest of the APAC region, which was better than Q3. Overall, we observed an acceleration last December, which was our best month. Zegna has been on a solid trajectory for several quarters, and Q4 was a significant moment for us. The strategic repositioning of TOM FORD is yielding positive results, and we are pleased to see encouraging signs across all TOM FORD stores in the U.S. and Europe, where we also had a good December.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Latin America. Nobody ever talks about Latin America because there are not many brands. But I think Zegna is a key leader in men's, and we have been doing very, very well in Latin America too. You know, not many doors, but Brazil and Mexico. I think it's good to mention that. If you are well positioned, if they know you with good service, you get good traction. Instead of letting Latin America buy around the world, they buy locally if they find the service and the product. This is an interesting strategy which very few brands in luxury have that. You have to go after niches, and we have been there for 30 years and we are taking advantage of the competitive advantage of Zegna. One day, we will get there, surely with TOM FORD, it's good, highly demanded also.

OperatorOperator

The second question regarding the geographic differences for each brand has been partially addressed by Daria. Specifically, if there are notable differences for each brand by region, we can highlight that Thom Browne particularly excelled in Korea and Japan, which have been strong markets throughout the year. Zegna has performed well in the Americas, the Middle East, and Europe, which are the three main regions driving success. For TOM FORD, the focus has been on the Americas and Europe. I'm not sure if there are any further questions or if we've effectively addressed your inquiries.

Daria NasledyshevaAnalyst

Yes. This is perfect. Thank you very much. So overall, if I put all of this together, definitely there is a big part that's idiosyncratic, all the work that you're doing with the brands. But there also has been a sequential improvement in the market and there was a broader acceleration into the end of the quarter.

OperatorOperator

Yes, you are correct. We previously highlighted that the growth for Thom Browne was also due to better comparisons, as well as new store openings.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Listen, one important point which I don't want to forget is Zegna only sells at full price. The incredible performance we had in December, all at regular price. If you go around and you ask how we did in December, ask this question: how much full price? How much on sale? We did 100% on full price. So this is an incredible achievement in two years coming from the wholesale world, coming from the sale world. I think it's going to be known also for the other two brands. Our goal is to go in that direction with the entire branding system of our group, because it's the way to go.

Daria NasledyshevaAnalyst

Thank you very much. This is very helpful.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Thank you, Daria. I will take two quick questions from the webcast and I apologize for taking a bit longer today. The first question is about how many stores we plan to open in 2025. We will not provide specific numbers right now, but expect more details in March. A key assumption is that for both the Zegna Brand and TOM FORD, we anticipate a significantly greater contribution from comparable sales than from just new spaces, which will be limited, while Thom Browne will have a defined contribution in 2025. As Gianluca mentioned, we will be opening a couple of key flagship stores, including in Tokyo and New York throughout the year. The last question, directed at Gianluca, refers to Mr. Zegna's comments about important projects that have been confirmed for 2024, as well as the decision to accept some short-term challenges. However, it seems that today's revenues were above consensus. Is it reasonable to view the 2024 revenue consensus as somewhat conservative?

Gianluca TagliabueCFO

Gildo mentioned that we have made some tough decisions and have chosen to proceed with significant projects while continuing to invest in our people, marketing, and infrastructure. I believe this has been stated numerous times before. Therefore, I don't see any reason to deviate from the consensus regarding adjusted EBIT as outlined in our public statements available on our website, which is approximately in the range of 1.75%. Of course, the final figures are not yet confirmed. Since we have decided to maintain our momentum, we must keep investing. I still expect to see the consensus reflected in our public statements on the website.

OperatorOperator

I think we have answered to all the questions also from the web. So I thank you everybody for all the usual very interesting questions and today also the many questions. If you need any follow-up, Alice and myself, we are available anytime. Just a reminder, full-year financial results will be released on March 27. Thank you again and have a nice afternoon or evening.

Gildo ZegnaCEO

Goodbye. Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Ciao Bye.

OperatorOperator

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect your lines.

逐字稿來自第三方供應商(Alpha Vantage),非本平台第一手解析;講者職稱依原始資料呈現,未經正規化。