管理層發言
Welcome to the Teekay Group Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, participants will be asked to press *1 to register for a question. For assistance during the call, please press *0 on your touch-tone phone. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Please go ahead.
Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.tk.com, where you will find a copy of the Teekay Group's second quarter 2026 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the second quarter 2026 Teekay Group earnings presentation available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Hvid, Teekay Corporation and Teekay Tankers President and CEO to begin.
Thank you, Anne. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the Teekay Group's second quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Speers, Teekay Corporation and Teekay Tankers CFO; Brian Hamilton, our VP, Finance and Corporate Development; and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research. Starting on slide 3 of the presentation, we will cover Teekay Tankers' recent highlights. Teekay Tankers reported GAAP net income of $226 million or $6.49 per share, and adjusted net income of $194 million or $5.56 per share in the second quarter, which was 50% higher than our results posted last quarter. This quarter also marks the highest-ever quarterly adjusted net income for the company, surpassing the previous record set in the first quarter of 2023. Spot tanker rates during the second quarter were the highest-ever as well, averaging $109,000 per day and $74,100 per day for our Suezmax and Aframax LR2 fleets, respectively.
With our significant spot exposure and a low free cash flow breakeven, we generated approximately $200 million in free cash flow from operations, which, along with a vessel sale, has increased our cash position to over $1.2 billion with no debt as of quarter end. We continue to execute on our fleet renewal strategy, which includes acquiring modern vessels while selling our older vessels. In the second quarter, we completed the previously announced transactions, including acquiring two Korean Suezmax newbuildings for a total of $190 million, which are expected to be delivered in 2027. And we sold one 2009-build Suezmax for $53.5 million, recording a gain on sale of $32.3 million during the quarter. At the beginning of July, we completed the previously announced VLCC sale for $84.5 million and we expect to record a gain on sale of approximately $23 million in the third quarter. In addition, I want to highlight that all three Aframaxes acquired at the beginning of the year have been redelivered from the bareboat charters and are now being operated under Teekay technical and commercial management, trading in the strong spot tanker market.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, we have secured spot rates of $105,000 per day and $59,900 per day for our Suezmax and Aframax LR2 fleets, respectively, for approximately 44% of spot days booked. I will touch on the market more in the next slide. Lastly, Teekay Tankers has declared its regular fixed quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. Moving to slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot tanker market. Spot tanker rates in the second quarter of 2026 reached a record high with Teekay Tankers achieving average mid-sized tanker rates of approximately $91,000 per day. This beat the previous record of just over $60,000 per day in the first quarter of 2023 by 50%, highlighting the incredible strength in the spot tanker market. The strength continued in the Suezmax tanker segment with rates remaining at near-record levels so far in the third quarter. In the Aframax sector, we experienced some softening of rates mid-quarter due to a buildup of tonnage in the Atlantic and a lack of arbitrage opportunities.
However, spot rates have strengthened again in the Aframax sector during July, particularly in the Atlantic, where we are currently seeing rates of over $100,000 per day. Turning to slide 5, we highlight several geopolitical events which have caused a series of disruptions to trade flows in recent months. While these events have not directly impacted the safety or operations of our vessels, they are driving volatility in the oil and tanker markets. The war between the U.S. and Iran has significantly impacted vessel transits and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which I will cover in more detail on the next slide. More recently, the resumption of attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea is impacting the flow of oil heading south via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Should this continue, a safer outlet for Saudi Arabian crude loading from the Red Sea port of Yanbu is through the Suez Canal, which would potentially add to tanker ton-mile demand through longer voyage distances.
Recent months have also seen an increase in attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the targeting of vessels loading from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, terminal in the Black Sea. As a result, we are now in an unprecedented situation whereby attacks on vessels are occurring in three separate regions that are vital to the global oil trade. Not only does this represent a severe risk to ships and crews operating in these regions, but it also adds further complexity to global oil trade flows and creates frustrating inefficiencies, which leads to further spot rate volatility. Despite the severe disruption to oil markets, oil exports and attacks on commercial vessels, the crude oil and shipping markets have remained resilient due to a combination of rising exports from other regions, oil inventory drawdowns, and lower demand, particularly in Asia. These trends are most clearly demonstrated when looking at the U.S. and China.
U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high in June, supported by the release of oil from strategic reserves, which boosted mid-sized tanker demand in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Chinese crude oil imports fell to a 10-year low in June due to refinery run cuts and inventory drawdowns, which offered some relief to global oil markets and prevented oil prices from spiraling out of control. How these dynamics play out in the coming months will be key to determining whether the oil market can continue to cope with the loss of oil from key export regions. Turning to slide 6, we provide an update on the Strait of Hormuz disruption. As shown by the chart on the left, transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway collapsed in March before undergoing a partial recovery in June after the U.S. and Iran signed the framework agreement aimed at ending hostilities. However, renewed hostilities at the start of July, including attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have led to a collapse of the agreement and a sharp slowdown in movement through the Strait.
As mentioned on the previous slide, the oil market has adjusted to the loss of Middle Eastern exports through a combination of Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverting supply to alternative ports including Yanbu and Fujairah, which lie outside of the Middle East Gulf, and rising output from the Atlantic Basin. While this does not fully cover the loss of supply from the Middle East, a combination of longer voyage distances and increased trading inefficiencies have supported spot tanker rates. Finally, the tanker market has also benefited from vessels being kept off market either because they are trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz or because they are empty and sitting idle outside of Hormuz, waiting for resolution. Should Asian refiners look to increase supply from the Atlantic Basin in light of new disruptions, a large number of tankers will have to ballast again to the Atlantic, which will stretch the fleet and give support to overall tanker demand.
In short, the ongoing disruption to trade flows and resulting inefficiencies could benefit spot tanker rates. Turning to slide 7, we look at the medium-term tanker supply and demand outlook. Given recent events in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, it is difficult to predict the future pathway for oil supply and demand. However, it is clear that global oil inventories are being depleted due to the reduction in supply from the Middle East, with strategic and commercial inventories in the OECD currently at a 20-year low. The eventual replenishment of these inventories once market conditions allow should provide a significant boost to oil and tanker demand. On the fleet supply side, a high level of new tanker orders in 2026 has expanded the order book, which now stretches into 2030. Scrapping activity remains limited, though pressure is building on the dark fleet of older vessels due to fewer trading markets as sanctions are lifted and as regulatory scrutiny increases.
In addition, the tanker fleet continues to age with the average age of the mid-sized tanker fleet now the oldest in over 30 years. We believe the eventual removal of these older vessels should help in reducing the impact of rising tanker deliveries in the coming years. Turning to slide 8, we continue to build value and have significant financial strength and optionality. This includes, first, our ability to generate significant free cash flow with a low free cash flow breakeven. With the majority of our vessels trading in the strong spot market, we generated near-record free cash flows in the first half of 2026. As an illustrative example, if we annualize our first half of 2026 free cash flows, TNK would generate free cash flows of $684 million, or almost $20 per share, by the end of the year. With a free cash flow breakeven of approximately $9,700 per day over the next 12 months, we believe our operating leverage provides a powerful platform for continued cash generation and long-term value creation.
Second, we are executing on our fleet renewal strategy by selling older assets in today's high asset price environment and recycling that capital to acquire more modern vessels in a disciplined manner. Looking back 12 months, we have sold nine older vessels for $369.5 million with combined gains of $125 million and acquired or committed to seven modern vessels for approximately $427 million, including two Suezmax newbuildings delivering in 2027. These transactions have lowered our average fleet age while maintaining significant operating leverage to the strong tanker market as highlighted by our record adjusted net income during the second quarter. Third, we have significant investment capacity which allows us to incrementally progress our fleet renewal requirements while being patient for larger transactions in the future at more attractive entry points. The tanker shipping industry is capital intensive, cyclical, and increasingly dynamic, and we believe having significant investment capacity provides financial flexibility to pursue opportunities swiftly when the timing is right.
Although the near-term tanker market outlook remains complex, unpredictable, and subject to significant influence from geopolitical events, we believe Teekay Tankers’ low cash flow breakeven levels, significant free cash flow generation, and sizable investment capacity position us well to simultaneously renew our fleet and create shareholder value. With that, operator, we are now available to take questions.
分析師問答
Thank you. And if you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing *1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, you can press *1 to ask a question. It will pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We will now go to your first question. That will be coming from Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities.
Thank you. Hi, Kenneth. Good morning. Thank you for the detail, and congrats on a record quarter. I had a couple of questions, maybe one a bit more market specific and then one on Teekay Tankers. You referenced this in your presentation just in terms of how this market has really been evolving into something quite different than what we have been used to seeing in the past. Can you talk about how you are seeing the Suezmax and Aframax segments react in this environment that we are in today? Specifically, now that you may be seeing a shift with some of those Saudi barrels going up to the Mediterranean, there has been a lot of conversation the past week or two about how VLCC activity really picked up to handle some of those cargoes. But I guess long-term, if indeed that becomes a new trade, where do the Suezmax and Aframaxes fit in that market?
Morning, Omar. Thanks for the question. I think it is a great question. As you say, we are definitely seeing patterns at the moment which are unprecedented. If we look at what happened in the quarter across our fleet, as I said in my prepared remarks, Suezmaxes have held up really well, and I think they were basically just following or trailing the VLCC rates throughout. We saw good utilization and strong demand. There are still many ports where VLCCs cannot go in fully laden. For example, if you take a VLCC through Suez up north, you may only be able to do it partially laden, which leads to considerations around ship-to-ship transfers depending on the destination. In some cases, it may be more beneficial to use a Suezmax for a shorter route. I think you will see a lot of these routing decisions being made, and that also depends on the parcel sizes being traded. What we have seen for the first half of this year is that Suezmaxes are performing extremely well, being pulled up by a very strong VLCC market.
Aframaxes have continued to fill slots where Suezmaxes cannot go into, such as certain ports with draft or size restrictions. For the first time in about four years, we saw a larger divergence between Aframax and Suezmax rates. That divergence is better explained by the VLCCs and Suezmaxes outrunning the medium-sized Aframax segment. But in absolute terms, Aframax rates were still very strong. Over the last couple of weeks, we've seen examples where we are fixing Aframaxes at higher rates than we are fixing Suezmax vessels, so the market is incredibly dynamic. It seems we are utilizing all assets on the water depending on their position and the specific cargo and port constraints. All three sectors are performing extremely well.
That is helpful detail in terms of thinking about this market. And I guess, as you were talking about, obviously the balance sheet is exceptionally strong—the best it has ever been for TNK—and you are continuing to fine-tune the business. Maybe there is not an opportunity that comes your way at a better entry point than where prices are today. But in that context, given capital allocation and the way it is set up at the moment, I wanted to ask about the dividend. At this point, you have had the special payout that comes out in the first quarter of each year for the past three or four years. In terms of the base payout of $0.25, which has been in place since the beginning of 2023, you are in a completely different world today both earnings-wise and balance-sheet-wise. Does it make sense to revisit that base dividend? Not saying it needs to transition to a high payout model, but do you see a world in which TNK starts to ratchet up the payout on an ongoing basis rather than keep it flat at $0.25 for the past three-plus years?
First of all, I would say that this year has turned out much stronger for the tanker markets than most of us expected, even when we reviewed it with our board in March. We have had a good cadence with a fixed dividend and then a special discussion after the first quarter every year. We like that cadence, and it is something we continue to discuss with our board at our board meetings. We normally signal to the market that we do this on an annual basis, and I would not expect that to change. But when we have this unprecedented cash flow generation, of course we intensify our capital allocation discussions with the board because the position we are in right now is a good challenge to have: we have generated a lot of excess cash. Our plan when we entered the year was to have faster fleet renewal. What happens when we see rates like this for a couple of quarters is that we are also seeing the highest premiums for on-the-water tankers that we have likely ever seen, which makes acquisitions more challenging and requires discipline.
But, of course, we work for our shareholders and remain focused on creating value. We have strong conviction that eventually the market will recognize the value we are creating as a company. Whether we change the dividend slightly or not signals what we believe, but the cash flows we generate are a clear demonstration that we are creating significant value and making the company more valuable. We are looking at the allocation decisions and will continue to discuss them with the board.
Next question will come from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.
Hey. Great. Good morning, Kenneth. I guess maybe just real quick: you mentioned some of the threats and dangers to ships in multiple regions now that have changed. Anything you can talk to in actions you have taken or routes that you have changed or insurance cost changes? That was just a preliminary question. My question was going to be on kind of your chart on Page 7, given the oil inventories which are going to need restocking. Are you still seeing accelerating drawdowns in this third quarter, which is normally a period of some restocking? Or, as you mentioned with China, are you still seeing that kind of drawdown at this point?
Yes. Good morning, Ken. Thanks for the questions. I'll take the first part and then pass it to Christian for the second part. In terms of trade routes and security, we are seeing an unprecedented number of attacks on commercial shipping in more regions than we have historically seen. That is a fact, and it means there are more areas where we must apply our security principles. This approach is no different from how we have handled specific regions in the past: we always assess whether it is safe to go in, and if we do not deem it safe for our crews and vessels, we will not make the call. For example, we have not been transiting south through the Red Sea for a long time, and we have not gone into the Strait of Hormuz; those are decisions we have made. Some people have transited, but we have not. The situation in the Black Sea is also very dynamic, and as of this morning we saw reports of attacks in the Mediterranean. Our approach is safety and security first, irrespective of region. The number of ports we consider unsafe today is definitely higher than I can recall historically. The world is getting a lot more complex and dynamic because these windows open and close, and that leads to inefficiency, as I noted in my remarks. I'll pass it to Christian to weigh in on the inventory drawdowns and what we know at the moment.
Hi, Kenneth. With regards to the inventory situation: when inventories get restocked will depend on the situation in the Middle East. We are still in a supply deficit with the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed, so inventories continue to be drawn down. The timing of when inventories might start to get restocked is wholly dependent on that situation resolving. Once that is resolved, there should theoretically be plenty of oil in the world to restock inventories. If you look at projections by agencies such as the IEA, they are forecasting quite a large supply surplus next year should Middle East production return to somewhat normal levels. At that point, an oversupply would put downward pressure on prices and be the stimulus for inventories to restock. There is a big need for restocking, as we showed on Slide 7: oil inventories are at a 20-year low in the OECD. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to just over 300 million barrels, the lowest in 43 years.
Prior to COVID in 2020, it was over 600 million barrels. China has been drawing down inventories at an estimated rate of about 1 million barrels per day for the past three months, which is another roughly 100 million barrels. Japan has been drawing down stocks, and Europe has released product inventories. The need to rebuild inventories is definitely there, but the pace and timing will depend on a successful resolution in the Middle East and market conditions, specifically oil price. When restocking occurs, it should provide a tailwind to tanker demand, but we cannot predict exactly when that will happen.
Great. Thanks, Christian. And then I guess two quick ones. Kenneth, it is on Page 16. You had a third quarter outlook—thanks for the detail there. Maybe you can just fill us in on what is included there. I know you have about 44% of days fixed—sorry, 48% of days I do not know if you want to talk about the assumptions to get to the full numbers. And then, sorry, a dumb one on dry-docking: is there any movement on those? You talked about record rates in the third quarter and what is normally seasonally low pricing. Given where rates are, is there anything you can do to push out dry-dockings? Or do you definitely want the vessels ready for the fourth-quarter run-up? Maybe just your thoughts on that timing.
I can take the dry-docking timing first and then pass it to Brody on the other details. We pushed some dry-dockings from Q2 to Q3, so we do not have a ton of flexibility. These are anniversary dry-dockings that need to occur this year. I'm glad we pushed some into Q3, but we need to get on with them now, complete them, and get the vessels back to trading. The focus is on performing the work where we dry-dock, turning them around as quickly as possible, and getting them back to picking up cargoes. So I do not think we will see a lot of movement in the dry-docking schedule for Q3.
I can take the outlook question. On the revenue side, as Kenneth mentioned, we have a number of dry-dockings in Q3, and we are projecting 260 days of off-hire related to that. Outside of that, the outlook reflects the remaining unfixed days on the spot market. On the cost side, we are expecting OpEx and G&A to come down a little bit in Q3 versus Q2; we are projecting about a $3 million reduction there. We also expect a little bit lower tax expense in Q3. Otherwise, the results will be largely dependent on where spot rates end up.
Sure. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the time and thoughts.
Thank you.
And it appears there are no additional questions at this time. I will turn the call back to the company for any additional and closing remarks.
Well, thank you very much for tuning in today. We look forward to reporting back to you next quarter. Have a great day.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.