管理層發言
Welcome to the Teekay Group First Quarter 2026 Earnings Results Conference Call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, participants will be asked to press 1. For assistance during the call, please press 0 on your touch tone phone. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Please go ahead.
Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.teekay.com, where you will find a copy of The Teekay Group's first quarter 2026 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2026 Teekay Group earnings presentation available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Hvid, Teekay Corporation's and Teekay Tankers' President and CEO to begin.
Thank you, Ryan. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the Teekay Group's first quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Speers, Teekay Corporation's and Teekay Tankers' CFO; Ryan Hamilton, our VP Finance and Corporate Development; and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research. Starting on slide 3 of the presentation, we will cover Teekay Tankers' recent highlights. Teekay Tankers reported GAAP net income of $154 million or $4.42 per share and adjusted net income of $128 million or $3.69 per share in the first quarter, which are over $30 million better than last quarter and two to three times the results posted in the same period of the prior year. Spot tanker rates during the first quarter were near record highs for first quarter, averaging approximately $61 thousand per day across our midsized tanker fleet.
With our significant spot exposure and a low free cash flow breakeven, we generated approximately $143 million in free cash flow from operations, which has increased our cash position to just shy of $1 billion with no debt as of quarter end. We continue to execute on our fleet renewal strategy, which includes acquiring modern vessels while selling our older vessels. I am pleased to announce that we have entered into agreements to acquire two Korean resale Suezmax newbuildings for a total of $190 million which are expected to be delivered in 2027. We also sold one 2009-built Suezmax for $53.5 million, resulting in an expected gain on sale of $32.5 million that will be recorded in Q2 2026. In addition, we have completed the previously announced sales of two Suezmax tankers for total proceeds of $73 million and recorded gains on sales of $22.7 million in the first quarter. So far this year, we have acquired or agreed to acquire five modern vessels for a total commitment of $332 million and have sold or agreed to sell four vessels for $211 million.
We also took advantage of the strong spot market as we opportunistically outchartered one Suezmax for $80 thousand per day for 10 to 12 months. And this past week, we outchartered one Aframax vessel for $60 thousand per day for 12 months. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect even better results with tanker rates reaching record levels. So far in the second quarter, we have secured spot rates of $142 thousand, $122 thousand, and $98 thousand per day for our VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax LR2 fleets, respectively, with approximately 71% of spot days booked for our VLCC and on average around 57% of spot days booked for all Suezmax and Aframax LR2 fleet. Lastly, Teekay Tankers has declared its regular fixed quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share. And in addition, we declared a special dividend of $1.00 per share, which, like prior years, is based on the previous year's financial results.
Moving to slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot tanker market. Spot tanker rates in Q1 were close to record highs for first quarter, just behind rates seen in 2023. It is worth noting that spot rates were very firm even before the recent US–Iran conflict. This was due to a combination of rising seaborne oil trade volumes, tightening of sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, and the impact of fleet consolidation in the VLCC sector. In particular, the removal of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela by the United States and the subsequent freeing up of Venezuelan crude oil exports to move on compliant tonnage to destinations such as the US Gulf, Europe, and India benefited midsized crude tanker demand in Q1. Midsized spot tanker rates have continued to rise at the start of Q2 due to the impact of recent events in the Middle East, reaching record highs of $120 thousand-plus per day during April.
I will talk more about the reasons for these record high rates in the next few slides. Turning to slide 5, we are experiencing an unprecedented oil supply disruption with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a series of attacks against Iran targeting military and government sites. Iran subsequently responded by attacking a range of military and civilian assets across the Middle East region, including vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, the US has also implemented a blockade aimed at preventing ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports. The net result has been a significant drop in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn has led to a sharp decline in Middle East oil production and exports, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been able to divert some of their export volumes to ports outside of the Middle East Gulf, namely Yanbu in the Red Sea and Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.
Total crude oil exports from the region have fallen approximately 10 million barrels per day compared to prewar levels. Partially offsetting the supply loss has been a corresponding increase in crude oil exports from the Atlantic Basin and the West Coast of the Americas, where exports have increased by approximately 4.5 million barrels per day since the start of the war. This has been most evident in the US Gulf, where crude oil exports reached a record high of 5 million barrels per day in April 2026, boosted by the release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While the increase in supply from the Atlantic is nowhere near enough to offset the loss of exports from the Middle East Gulf, the resultant increase in voyage distances and associated trading inefficiencies have combined to boost spot tanker rates as detailed on the next slide. Turning to slide 6, we review the trade inefficiencies which have supported tanker rates.
First, a number of vessels are trapped and unable to exit the Middle East Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced effective fleet supply. At the time of writing, we count a total of 100 tankers of Aframax size or larger which are trapped west of Hormuz, of which 59 are VLCCs, accounting for around 8% of the non-sanctioned fleet. In addition, there are a further 86 vessels of Aframax size or larger which are currently empty and sitting idle just outside the Strait of Hormuz or off the west coast of India in anticipation of a potential reopening, of which over 50 are VLCCs. Secondly, the rush to find replacement barrels, particularly by Asian refiners who have been most impacted by the loss of Middle East oil, has led to an increase in vessels ballasting long haul from the Pacific Basin to the Atlantic in order to secure cargoes. A large proportion of these vessels are then sailing back to Asia once loaded in order to meet Asian refinery demand.
Finally, the increase in vessels loading in the Atlantic sailing long haul to Asia has not been limited to the VLCC sector as we have also seen a significant lengthening in laden voyage distances for Aframaxes and Suezmaxes. As shown by the chart, the average Aframax voyage distances for vessels loading in the US Gulf have increased by 30% year-on-year while a record 69 Suezmaxes loaded from the US Gulf during April, many of which are fixed for Asian destinations. We have even seen five Suezmax cargoes load from the US Gulf and transit to Asia via the Panama Canal, which is a very unusual trade and highlights the lengths to which refiners in Asia are willing to go in order to make up for the shortfall in Middle East oil supply. Turning to slide 7, we look at the medium-term tanker supply and demand outlook. Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the high degree of unpredictability regarding when and how the conflict may be resolved, it is very difficult to assess what will happen to tanker tonne-mile demand should the Strait of Hormuz reopen as it will depend on how quickly vessel transits resume and the pace at which Middle East oil producers can resume exports.
What we do know is that global oil inventories are being depleted across both commercial and strategic stockpiles. This could create additional tanker demand once the conflict is resolved as these inventories will have to be replenished. In addition, a push for energy security could lead to some countries building or expanding their strategic reserves in order to safeguard against any future disruption. Some countries may also look to diversify their sources of crude oil imports which could lead to longer voyage distances and therefore higher tonne-mile demand in the medium term. On the fleet supply side, the tanker order book continues to expand due to the relatively high pace of new vessel ordering in recent months. However, a lack of scrapping means that the tanker fleet is rapidly aging, with the average age of the global tanker fleet currently the highest in over 30 years. As such, the tanker order book is largely offset by the number of compliant tankers reaching age 20 over the same time frame in which the order book will deliver.
Not to mention the large dark fleet of tankers which already has an average age of well over 20 years. In short, while the tanker order book appears large on the surface, these vessels are needed to replace the older fleet of tankers which are approaching the end of their trading lives in the coming years, though the timing of when vessels will exit the fleet is uncertain. Turning to slide 8, we highlight our capability to create long-term shareholder value. This includes: first, our ability to generate significant free cash flow with a low free cash flow breakeven. In the last four quarters, we have generated $36 million or $11.14 per share in free cash flow, or nearly a 30% free cash flow yield based on the closing share price at the end of Q1 2025. With our new outcharters and no debt, our current free cash flow breakeven has decreased to approximately $8.2 thousand per day for the next 12 months, which allows us to generate significant cash flows in almost any tanker market.
To emphasize the impact, every $5 thousand per day increase in spot tanker rates above our low free cash flow breakeven is expected to produce about $53 million or $1.53 per share of annual free cash flow. Second, we are progressing our fleet renewal by selling older assets in today's high asset price environment and recycling that capital to acquire more modern vessels in a disciplined manner. This recalibration reduces our average age while maintaining significant operating leverage to the strong spot market. Looking back 12 months, we have sold or agreed to sell 11 vessels for $432 million with combined gains of $139 million and acquired or agreed to acquire eight vessels for $490 million. Going forward, we expect to maintain our earnings capacity with this approach of trading in older assets for more modern vessels. Third, we have significant investment capacity, which allows us to incrementally progress our fleet renewal requirements while being patient for larger transactions in the future at more attractive entry points.
The tanker shipping industry is capital intensive and cyclical, and we believe having significant investment capacity allows us to act quickly when the timing is right. As we look ahead, Teekay has significant operating leverage in this strong market environment and a strong financial footing, which positions the company well to continue renewing our fleet, earning cash flow, building intrinsic value and returning capital to shareholders. With that, operator, we are now available to take questions.
分析師問答
Thank you. We will take our first question from John Chappell with Evercore ISI.
Thank you. Good morning. Let's start with that last part. It is something that we have spoken about in several calls, but now that the market's taken this next level higher—spot, time charter, and asset values—it seems like the investment decision becomes even more complex because there are so many geopolitical factors involved. You bought those 27 Suezmaxes, but does it feel in this period of uncertainty and maybe elevated everything that we just need to wait a little bit longer before some of the significant investment capacity is implemented?
Yeah, John. Good morning. I think you hit the nail on the head here. That is what every operator and owner is looking at at the moment. As we finished last year, many of us were in the mindset that we could enter into a softer or flatter year this year. Then new events occurred that brought us to record rates in Q1 and into Q2. That has had an impact, as always, on where asset prices are trading. The effect we have seen is very high secondhand values for prompt delivery. We are trying to capture that, and there is always this balancing of how much is in the price of secondhand assets. We sold one of our oldest vessels and captured a record rate on that. We then saw an opportunity to redeploy into what we think is a fairly near-term good opportunity of a quality asset that we are happy to own for the next 20 years in our fleet. So it is a little bit of parking and tackling at a higher watermark than what we expected. But I would say it is not a higher watermark in terms of our long-term position at Teekay. We knew we had to get on with our fleet renewal, and that is what we are starting to do. As I said in my prepared remarks, we are probably going slower on the buying side than we would have hoped to do.
Just my follow-up: I am trying to understand the operational impact on the trade inefficiencies. Although I do not think anybody would be upset with $98 thousand a day quarter-to-date for Aframaxes, when you look at your slide 4 and see that parabolic move higher in midsize tanker rates, it feels like maybe higher based on some of the headline rates that we have seen in that particular asset class. So is that a function of timing or maybe some of the quarter-to-date was booked before rates took that next step higher? Is there a lot of excess ballast? Any situation or issues? Is there any reason why the absorption of the headline rates is not as high for that particular asset class given some of what you have spoken to?
No. It is always timing. The way we report these numbers is based on positioning and where the next cargo is. We are definitely not overpromising on rates. I think the numbers are reflective of the market we have seen. We are globally positioned, and we have captured our fair share of the fixtures that have been out there when you operate on average. There is huge variation in the rates you are seeing in different regions. Some of it is timing and short-term volatility. Overall, we have secured our fair share of the very strong fixtures. There is a big range when the market is this volatile; you are dealing with big variations in rates day-to-day and across areas.
We move next to the line of Omar Nokta with Clarkson Securities.
Hi, Kenneth. Good morning. I just have a couple of questions. First, following up on John's question and your response regarding fleet rejuvenation: given just how expensive things are and the uncertainty in the market, is the plan still to pair up acquisitions with sales as you have done here over the past several quarters? It sounds like you are definitely not outpacing that in terms of making more acquisitions and sales. Is it still a plan to pair them up, or would you be more of a net seller as you had been in prior years?
I would say there is not a plan to be a net seller. We are balancing a number of objectives. First, we are keen on preserving scale, relevance, and earnings capacity. The level we are at now is probably close to the minimum exposure we want to have while still giving meaningful upside given that over 80% of the fleet is in the spot market. So we like having that level of exposure given our balance sheet size—no appetite to reduce that. In a market running as hard as this, it is hard to find sensibly priced secondhand values for long-term holders and operators like ourselves. That is why we went and took those newbuildings, even if they are one year out. The market is dynamic, and I'm sure when we speak a year from now there will have been a number of opportunities and very different fundamentals and opportunities. We will continue to be opportunistic and do the best deals we can, while balancing creating shareholder value, capturing as much of the strong market as possible, and positioning the company for the long term.
A quick follow-up on fleet deployment in the second quarter: regarding the VLCC that is going to be sold and delivered to the buyers in June, how many operating days do you expect to have during the second quarter before she's sold? And in terms of the guidance you have given, the remaining 29% of the period—are those regular operating days, or will they be nonearning days related to delivery to the buyers?
Hey Omar, it is Brody. In the second quarter, we expect to have 75 operating days for the VLCC. The remaining days will be unavailable days once we have delivered the ship to the buyer, which is the expectation.
Okay, thank you. So the 71% and 29% that you referenced—71% is based on 90 days, but it is actually more like 80 to 82% of the 75 days that has been fixed at that rate level?
Yes. The 71% is based on 90 days. It is actually closer to 80 to 82% of the 75 operating days that have been fixed at that rate level.
Got it. Understood. Thanks, Brody, and thanks, Kenneth. I will pass it back.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.
Great. Good morning, Kenneth. Interesting commentary on inventories—not just the rebuild of what you would expect, but maybe some to newer areas. Have you put pen to paper on how meaningful or how long that could go out? Would you expect that the rebuild cycle may not start immediately once we see reopening, and that traders would allow pricing to maybe come back to normal such that this could be a long-tail leg as opposed to an immediate move? Any thoughts on the inventory side?
Thanks for that question. I will have Christian give a bit more color on this.
I think our view is that once the straits reopen, there will definitely be a need to replenish inventories. The pace at which that is done will depend on market conditions. If oil prices remain over $100 a barrel, there may not be an urgency to refill inventories. As Middle East production gets back to normal and we return to a more normal situation and oil prices decline, I think the restocking process will likely kick in. There will be a need to rebuild the inventories that have been drawn down, and some countries that do not have strategic reserves may look at this from an energy security perspective and build reserves above pre-crisis levels. I also think some countries, especially in Asia, will reevaluate how much they rely on the Middle East Gulf and may diversify their sources, which from a tanker market perspective could lead to longer voyage distances. So there will likely be a tailwind to tanker demand. The pace will depend on market conditions and oil prices, and it might be more of a longer-term rebuild rather than a sudden quick rebuild once the straits reopen.
So you do not think trading patterns go back to normal to cut the length of haul over time?
It might structurally change trading patterns; that remains to be seen. I think it is somewhat analogous to what happened with Russia. Even if that situation normalized, Europe might not want to be so reliant on Russian energy. Energy security has become a bigger driving force. In the first instance, Asian countries will likely take a lot of oil from the Middle East Gulf because it is the shortest distance, but over a longer time period, countries will look at choke points and ways to mitigate risk, which could lead to changing trade patterns.
Great. Thanks for that. And then just thoughts on the dividend: you have declared the special dividend. Thoughts on increased frequency if the market is not accommodative to buying? Maybe your thoughts on capital allocation in the near term—how large do you want that cash pile to be before starting to deploy more?
We have been pretty consistent over the past three years in terms of how we deal with the dividend. The question is when do we have enough cash. As I said in my prepared remarks, this industry is capital intensive and sometimes opportunities come suddenly. You can do a lot more with a billion dollars than you can with half a billion. We expect our cash position to grow meaningfully over the next quarter as well, which gives us a lot of capacity. It is a discussion we will have again next year in terms of any other sweeps we may want to do on that cash. Meanwhile, the market is dynamic and we feel very good about the strong position and the incredibly strong balance sheet that we have managed to build over the past four years.
Great. Thanks a lot for the thoughts and time. Appreciate it.
At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the floor back to the company for any additional or closing remarks.
Thank you very much for listening in today. We look forward to reporting back to you in the next quarter later in the year. Have a great day.
This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.