管理層發言
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Ryanair Q3 Results Conference Call. I'm Michael O'Leary, Group CEO, and I'm here with Neil Sorahan, the Group CFO. This morning, Ryanair announced a Q3 profit after tax of EUR 115 million, before exceptional items. We saw a 6% rise in traffic and a 4% increase in fares during Q3, although we did account for an EUR 85 million exceptional charge related to an unjustified fine from the Italian AGCM, announced on Christmas Eve. Both our team and our Italian legal advisors are optimistic that this will be overturned on appeal. In the third quarter, traffic grew by 6% to 47.5 million passengers, with revenue per passenger increasing by 3%. We maintained strong cost control, keeping unit costs flat during the quarter. As of December 31, our fleet included 206 Gamechangers out of 643 aircraft, with the last four expected to be delivered in February. We've also revealed three new bases and 106 new routes for summer 2026, which are already available for booking. Our fuel is 80% hedged for FY 2027 at $67 per barrel, which allows for significant savings of 10% in fuel costs for the upcoming year. Regarding the Italian AGCM fine, we remain confident it will be overturned. Other income in Q3 decreased as we didn’t receive delivery delay compensation, unlike the previous year. Looking ahead to Q4 of FY 2026, our fuel hedging stands at 84% for around $77 a barrel. We have now ensured hedging for FY 2027 covering 80% of our jet fuel needs at $67 per barrel, setting us up for notable cost savings in the next fiscal year. Over the last three years, Ryanair has delivered over 150% total shareholder return, positioning us in the top quartile of Stoxx Europe 600 Index TSR performers. We are committed to consistent capital allocation, backed by a robust balance sheet as we aim for 300 million passengers by FY 2034, aided by our order of 300 MAX 10 aircraft. Regarding our fleet, the final four Gamechangers will take our total to 210 by the end of February. The early delivery of these aircraft is expected to boost traffic growth this year. We are now increasing this year’s traffic target to 208 million, up from the previous 207 million. This development ensures our fleet is ready for the summer schedule, allowing us to project a 4% traffic growth to 216 million passengers next year in FY 2027. Boeing anticipates that MAX 10 certification will happen this summer, and we are confident they will meet their delivery dates for the first 15 MAXs in spring 2027. These aircraft are more fuel-efficient, offering 20% more seats while consuming 20% less fuel, enabling profitable growth until March 2034. This winter, we are strategically allocating our limited capacity to regions and airports that are reducing aviation taxes and promoting traffic growth, including Albania, regional Italy, Morocco, Slovakia, and Sweden, while shifting flights from markets with high aviation taxes like Austria, Belgium, Germany, and parts of Spain. This strategy will continue into summer 2026, with over 160 new routes on sale, complemented by the opening of three new bases in Morocco, Albania, and Italy. In terms of the Italian AGCM fine, it was a baseless EUR 256 million penalty for our direct distribution policy in Italy, which is consistent with our approach across Europe. We believe this fine will be overturned on appeal as it contradicts a recent Milan Court of Appeal ruling that affirmed our model benefits consumers through lower fares and cost-efficient operations. Our legal team is confident the courts will correct this misguided AGCM decision. Although we typically provision for legal appeals at 50%, we have reduced this to 33% reflecting our strong belief that the ruling will be overturned. Looking ahead, we expect FY 2026 traffic to grow by about 4% to nearly 208 million passengers due to strong demand and the timely delivery of Boeing aircraft. We anticipate only modest year-end unit cost inflation as the benefits of the Gamechanger deliveries, fuel hedging, and effective cost management offset rises in ATC charges and environmental fees. Although Q4 lacks the benefit of Easter, fare trends are slightly ahead of last year, leading us to expect full-year fare growth to exceed our previous guidance of 7% by around 1% or 2%, reaching between 8% and 9%. At this point, we cautiously project our full-year profit after tax, before exceptional items, to be in the range of EUR 2.13 billion to EUR 2.23 billion. However, the final outcome for FY 2026 may still face risks from external factors in Q4, including potential escalations in Ukraine or the Middle East, economic shocks, and further disruptions from European ATC strikes and mismanagement. Now, I will hand it over to Neil to discuss the slide presentation. Neil, please go ahead.
Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everybody. Ryanair has the lowest fares and the lowest cost of any airline in Europe, and our cost gap advantage continues to widen. We're #1 for traffic and are now increasing traffic targets to 208 million passengers this year, which is a 4% increase on last year. Thanks to our strong on-time performance and reliability, we've seen our customer satisfaction scores rise to 89% in the year-to-date, and we continue to be highly rated by all of the ESG rating agencies. With our 300 MAX 10 order book starting to come in from next year, this will underpin a decade of growth to 300 million passengers by FY '34. And that, of course, as always, is underpinned by our financial strength, our lowest costs, and this makes us the long-term winner in our sector. This is a snapshot of where we stand at the moment, including 3 new bases for Summer of 2026. So 208 million passengers in the current year, 300 million passengers by FY '34. Our costs, as I already said, continue to improve, continue to get better with a strong performance in Q3. And over the next number of years, with 300 MAX 10s coming in with 20% more seats, 20% more fuel efficiency, this advantage is only going to get better. On the quarter itself, we saw traffic increase by 6% to 47.5 million passengers at flat 92% load factors. Average fare rose 4%, thanks to a strong midterm break in October, but more importantly, close-in bookings for Christmas and the New Year also were strong. Revenue as a result, up 9% to EUR 3.21 billion in the quarter to the end of December. On costs, excluding the AGCM provision, which Michael has gone into in some detail, we saw unit costs remain flat or total costs increased by 6% to EUR 3.11 billion. And profit after tax, pre-exceptional, down 22%, primarily due to the absence of Boeing delivery compensation impacts and catching up on their order book. So coming in at EUR 115 million profit in the quarter and EUR 30 million after that AGCM fine provision for the 33% that Michael referred to earlier on. Balance sheet remains rock solid, a fortress balance sheet, BBB+ a strong investment-grade rating from Fitch and S&P, uniquely, almost 620 Boeing 737s fully unencumbered on the balance sheet. Liquidity remains very strong with EUR 2.4 billion gross cash and EUR 1 billion net cash at the end of the quarter. And that puts in a very, very strong position now as we move into the next financial year in April to pay down our final bond, the EUR 1.2 billion maturing bond in May 2026 from our own cash resources, effectively making the Ryanair Group debt-free. I'd just like to briefly focus on our total shareholder return. Over the past 3 years, we've delivered a TSR up 153%, which puts us firmly in the upper quartile of the Euro Stoxx 600. In fact, we're in a small club of 3 companies in Europe, which can boast a net profit in excess of 15%, investment-grade ratings, net cash, and TSR over 150%, while at the same time, investing in growth, delivering consistent and disciplined returns to our shareholders. And we expect this model to continue for the years to come. With that, maybe, Michael, you will take us through current developments, please.
Thank you. As we stated, we are slightly increasing our traffic expectations for fiscal year 2026 to a 4% rise, reaching 208 million, driven by earlier Boeing deliveries and strong demand. We are utilizing our limited capacity to optimize operations, focusing on airports and regions that reduce taxes and fees to foster growth. Our complete fiscal year 2026 schedule will be available for purchase at the end of March, which includes three new bases and 106 new routes. Significantly, we have hedged 80% of our fuel for fiscal year 2027 at a rate of $67 per barrel, resulting in a 10% savings. We will also issue an interim dividend of just over $0.19 per share payable in late February. As Neil mentioned, we have completed 46% of the EUR 750 million buyback by the end of the third quarter. We are prepared to repay the final EUR 1.2 billion bond in May, after which we will be nearly debt-free. Additionally, we are actively planning for the MAX 10 to enter service in spring 2027, and we now believe Boeing will meet these delivery timelines. The introduction of these aircraft will enable us to pursue a decade of low-cost, profitable growth, targeting over 50% growth to reach 300 million passengers by fiscal year 2034. Regarding the Boeing specifics, we currently have 206 Gamechangers in our fleet, with four more expected in February. Boeing anticipates the MAX 10 certification by late summer 2026, and we expect to receive our first 15 MAX 10s in spring 2027, paving the way for our growth through 2034. Neil, would you like to conclude with our outlook?
Yes. Thank you, Michael. So as Michael said, traffic marginally ahead of where we previously guided. So 208 million passengers, 4% increase on last year, primarily due to the earlier delivery of those MAX 8-200 aircraft and strong demand in the business. Fares now look like we'll be ahead of the 7% fare growth that we previously guided, possibly 1% or 2%, which is well ahead of the minus 7% fare decline that we suffered last year. So fully recovered and then some growth on top of that. Unit costs have performed well year-to-date. So we're sticking with our modest unit cost inflation for the current financial year. We'll continue to see the benefits of our fuel hedging offset rising ATC environmental and indeed, the unwind of the Boeing compensation with no Boeing compensation in the second half of this year. So putting that all together, we're now cautiously guiding profit after tax pre-exceptionals for the full year in a range of EUR 2.13 billion to EUR 2.23 billion. Beyond that, we're now in a very strong position to deliver 216 million passengers next year. That's a 4% increase. We'll see the benefit of our fuel hedges, 10% savings coming through on the jet price help offset some of the rising environmental costs. And importantly, with the MAX 10 now due to join the fleet in the spring of 2027, we're ramping up for a decade of growth to 300 million passengers over the next number of years. Thank you very much.
分析師問答
Michael, Neil, starting with your results. Ryanair reported Q3 PAT of EUR 115 million, pre-exceptional, down 22%. What were the key drivers?
With a strong operating performance in the business, we did, however, not have any Boeing delayed compensation in this quarter, having had it in the prior year comp. That's down to Boeing catching up on the deliveries and effectively no need for compensation. But if we look at the operating performance, very strong traffic up 6% to 47.5 million passengers at 4% higher fares, driven by strong midterms in October and strong close-in bookings for Christmas and the New Year. Ancillaries, as has been the trend all year, put in another solid performance, rising 7% or up 1% on a per passenger basis. And I'm particularly happy with the cost performance where we delivered flat unit costs pre-exceptional charges in the quarter.
You provided for 33% or EUR 85 million of the Italian AGCM fine. Will you provide for the balance of this fine in Q4?
No. In this case, normally, our policy is to provide about 50% for these kind of legal fines when they're under appeal. However, in this case, with the benefit of the Milan Court of Appeal precedent ruling, which was just less than 18 months ago, our lawyers and ourselves in Italy are highly confident that this AG – manifestly wrong AGCM ruling will be overturned on appeal. In fact, we could, given the strength of the advice we have not made any provision at all, but I think that would have been a bit too ambitious. It seems to both me and the Board that it's sensible to provide about 33%, and we don't expect to be making any other provisions. In fact, we expect to be writing back that provision to the P&L sometime in the next year or 2, which is how long we expect the appeal will take.
Can you update on your hedging position?
Yes, we are well hedged. As of the end of March, we are about 84% hedged at $76 a barrel. Looking ahead to next year, we are 80% hedged on our jet fuel at $67 a barrel, which represents a savings of around 10%. For operating expenses, we have locked in our euro-dollar exposure for next year at approximately EUR 1.15, which is better than the EUR 1.11 rate for the current year. Additionally, we took advantage of the recent dips in the dollar to increase our MAX 10 hedging to 40% at a euro-dollar rate of EUR 1.24.
How is Q4 trading?
Demand is good. As I mentioned earlier with the Boeing deliveries, we expect traffic to increase slightly faster than we had originally anticipated. Therefore, we now expect to serve 208 million passengers for the full year instead of the previously projected 207 million. Pricing in the fourth quarter is somewhat higher compared to last year, even without the impact of Easter. However, as we've stated before, the final outcome heavily depends on avoiding disruptions as we progress through February and March.
Can you give any color on Summer trading and FY '27 costs?
It's a bit too early for that. We're still working through our budget. So it will be another month or 2 before the Board sign off. What I can say at this stage, however, is with all of the Gamechangers expected to be in the fleet by the end of February, we're now targeting traffic next year of 216 million. So that's marginally up on the 215 million that we had previously guided, 4% increase. And of course, we'll see the benefit of our fuel hedges coming through next year as well.
Moving to the balance sheet. What are the main callouts of your strong balance sheet?
I pretty much the same as it has always been. So we have a BBB+ credit rating. We have an unencumbered fleet of almost 620 737 aircraft. Strong liquidity, EUR 2.4 billion gross cash at the end of December, almost EUR 1 billion of net cash, which leaves us very well positioned to repay the remaining bond debt in May this year from internal resources. And it's that financial flexibility that widens our cost gap with most of our competitors in Europe who are heavily exposed either to the aircraft leasing costs or financing expenses.
What's FY '26 and FY '27 CapEx guidance?
At this stage, I think we'll finish FY '26 with CapEx somewhere close to EUR 2 billion. So that's marginally down on the EUR 2.2 billion that we had previously guided where we're seeing some timing issues with a couple of projects moving out 1 or 2 years. And then next year, not much hugely different to what we had previously said, now it depends on the final budget. I think it will come in close to EUR 2 billion, possibly just below EUR 2 billion.
How will you finance the MAX 10s?
As we've always done, we'll use a strong balance sheet and be opportunistic. I would expect mostly it will be from internally generated cash, but we'll also use bond or bank markets when it's opportunistic or low cost to do so.
Shifting to shareholder returns, how is the EUR 750 million buyback progressing?
Yes, it's going well. I mean this buyback is scheduled to run out to the end of the current year. So we're about 46% of the way through it at the end of December. Put that in context, that's about 13.1 million shares bought back at an average price of EUR 26 per share. All of those shares canceled. So about EUR 340 million spent up to the end of December.
When is the next dividend payable?
There's an interim dividend of just over EUR 0.19 per share. That's payable by the end of February.
Ryanair's TSR performance is market-leading. Has focus shifted from investing in growth to shareholder returns?
Well, you're right. It is. It's a phenomenal return of 150% over the past 3 years and putting us firmly in the upper echelons of the Euro Stoxx 600 TSR index. But no, our focus hasn't shifted, and we have no plans to shift our focus. We'll continue to invest in growth. The plans are to have 300 MAX 10s in the fleet and 300 million passengers by FY '34. We've got a very simple capital allocation policy in here. We will retain a strong investment-grade balance sheet. We'll continue to invest in growth. As I said, the MAX 10s, jumping in opportunities like we did last June where we were able to buy 30 spare LEAP engines at the right price, good use of capital for our shareholders. And indeed, we'll invest in engine shops over the next number of years to help widen Ryanair's cost base. But at the same time, as we've done in the past, if there's surplus cash, we'll return that. We already have a 25% payout of prior year PAT regular dividend program. And the Board have and will continue likely to deliver buybacks and ad hoc dividends from time to time over the next number of years.
On fleet in growth, when will you receive your final Gamechangers?
The final 4 Gamechangers will deliver in February, well ahead of the end March launch of the Summer '26 schedule. Kelly Ortenberg, Stephanie Pope and the team at Boeing are doing a great job at catching up those delivery delays, which is why we've seen a significant drop in supplier compensation in the Q3 numbers. But those earlier deliveries mean we can now facilitate 4% growth to 216 million passengers in the year to March 2027.
What's the latest update on MAX 10 certification?
Yes. Boeing are still talking about certification in the Summer of 2026, possibly in Q3 calendar. So that's the July, August, September time frame. And they're increasingly confident, as Michael already said, that we will be taking our first 15 MAX 10s in the spring of next year.
What's your views on European short-haul capacity?
It will continue to be very heavily constrained right out to at least 2030. The drivers are the huge backlog and delivery delays being faced by Boeing and Airbus. The Pratt & Whitney engine repairs continue to trouble the Airbus short-haul fleet in Europe, and this will likely extend into 2026 and 2027. Additionally, industry consolidation, particularly with Lufthansa's recent acquisition and the expected acquisition of TAP, is causing a reduction in capacity, especially in the short-haul and domestic markets in Europe. Lufthansa is shifting its focus to channels that feed into Munich and Frankfurt, rather than competing with Ryanair in the short-haul domestic and Italian markets.
Where is Ryanair most focused on growing?
Yes. We've been very clear. We've got limited growth. We're only growing by 4% this year, and we only plan to grow by another 4% next year. And so we're very focused on rewarding and giving growth to regions that are reducing aviation taxes, airports that are stimulating growth. And if you look at our summer 2026, the new bases are in places like Tirana in Albania, Trapani in Sicily as well and Rabat in Morocco. At the same time, we're pulling capacity out of markets where they're actually increasing taxes or at least not bringing them down the likes of Austria, Belgium, Germany, regional Spain. And we'll continue to do so while capacity remains constrained.
What's the latest update on your engine shop project?
Things are progressing well. We anticipate announcing the first of two sites soon, likely before the end of March or April. Negotiations for spare parts and tooling for the engine shops are in advanced stages, and we expect to sign contracts for these by the end of the first quarter or by the end of April. We hope to have the first shop operational for overhauling or repairing Ryanair engines by late 2028 or early 2029, with the second shop opening in the early 2030s. This will provide us with a cost advantage compared to our competitors, as they will be relying on limited third-party engine maintenance facilities, while we will have ample capacity for maintaining our engines.
Lastly, on outlook, what's the group's FY '26 outlook?
Yes, we expect traffic now to finish at about 208 million passengers, 4% growth on last year, thanks to the earlier delivery of the Boeing aircraft and strong demand. On fares, we think we're in a position where we'll recover not only all of the 7% that we saw decline last year, but another 1% or 2% on top of that. So ahead of our previous guidance. On cost performance, has been good year-to-date. So we're sticking with our modest unit cost inflation for the full year, where we'll see the benefit of our fuel hedges continuing to offset air traffic control charges, increasing environmental costs and indeed, the roll-off of Boeing compensation with no delayed compensation in the second half of this year. So putting all of that together, profit after tax, pre-exceptional, the AGCM fine provision, profit after tax should be somewhere in the range of about EUR 2.13 billion to EUR 2.23 billion. And then beyond that, 4% traffic growth again next year to 216 million passengers. You see the benefits of our lower fuel hedging coming through. And then, of course, with the MAX 10 aircraft starting to deliver from the start of 2027, we'll have another decade of growth to 300 million passengers by FY '34.
Thanks, Neil. It's time for our Q3 results, so we won't be conducting a formal roadshow; however, there will be an analyst call at 10:00 a.m. Dublin time. Everyone is welcome to join. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to ask during that call or reach out to the investor relations team led by Jamie Donovan, or through Neil and the finance team. Thank you very much. We look forward to seeing all of you again.