Pacific Airport Group(PAC)Q2 2026 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. You're on hold for today's GAP conference call. At this time, we're admitting additional participants. Please stand by, we'll begin shortly. Good morning and welcome to GAP's second quarter 2026 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the presentation, we will open the floor for questions, and at that time, instructions will be given if you would like to ask a question. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to GAP's investor relations team. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Welcome to GAP's second quarter 2026 conference call. Prior to introducing GAP's management team, I'd like to take a few moments to mention the forward-looking statements as described in the financial report. Please be advised that any comments made today may not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance, or financial results. Any information discussed is based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from current expectations. For the complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report issued previously. Thank you for your attention. It is my pleasure to introduce our speakers from GAP today, who will be discussing with you the operational and financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026. These are Mr. Raúl Revuelta, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Saúl Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Revuelta, please proceed with your opening remarks.

Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The second quarter of 2026 shows the resilience of GAP's business model. Passenger traffic declined by 5.6% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Revenue, excluding construction services, increased by 4.9%, EBITDA grew by 8.4%, and EBITDA margin expanded by 230 basis points to 69.3%. The results reflect the combined strength of our diversified airport portfolio, the continued growth of business operated directly by GAP, the initial contribution from the Cross Border Xpress, the global implementation of approved tariffs, and the internationalization of technical assistance services. While we are not satisfied with the current traffic performance, this quarter demonstrates that GAP is increasingly capable of protecting earnings and generating growth through multiple complementary revenue streams. Let me begin with passenger traffic. During the second quarter, total passenger traffic across GAP's network of 14 airports declined by 5.6% versus the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a combination of factors affecting both our Mexican and Jamaican operations. In Jamaica, we continue to experience the impact of Hurricane Melissa. While the recovery of hotel capacity along the main tourist corridor gradually continues, it has not yet returned to pre-storm levels. However, we think hotel reopenings point to extended recovery throughout the second half of this year. If this continues, we expect passenger traffic will continue to turn in the coming months. The operating environment in Mexico remained challenging throughout the quarter. While airlines proactively managed capacity in response to the current economic environment, rising jet fuel costs continued to pressure airfare prices. In addition, international leisure demand for some of our beach destinations is affected by security concerns, including the security incident in Puerto Vallarta during the previous quarter, as well as various travel advisory issues by the U.S. government. International traffic dropped; the quarter decline was highlighted by the 27% reduction in international passengers at Puerto Vallarta. We are actively partnering with airlines and regional tourism stakeholders to rebuild route connectivity and boost travel and confidence in this area. In the month of June, the city of Guadalajara hosted four of five FIFA World Cup matches. We are proud to highlight that this demonstrates the operational strength of the Guadalajara Airport. Throughout the tournament, the airport successfully handled additional charter flights, as well as the arrival of national teams, official delegations, and fans. Despite heightened security protocols, operations remained normal, preserving excellent service levels for both daily passengers and airline partners. As a result, traffic at Guadalajara Airport rose by 6%. This was partially offset by a temporary softening in business and leisure travel at other GAP airports during the World Cup. We expect this demand to normalize in July following the completion of the tournament. We believe that a significant portion of the headwinds affecting traffic is temporary. Also, the pace of normalization will vary by market. Our revised guidance does not assume an immediate or complete recovery. Instead, it reflects a gradual improvement supported by 19 new routes launched during the quarter, the contribution of new frequencies that began operation in June, the gradual restoration of hotel capacity in Jamaica, and more favorable year-over-year comparisons during the second half. Turning to financial results, aeronautical revenues decreased by 3.2%, primarily due to the lower passenger traffic both in Mexico and Jamaica, as well as a 10.9% appreciation of the Mexican peso, which negatively affected the translation of revenue generated in U.S. dollars, as well as international passenger charges. It is important to highlight that those effects were partially offset by the gradual implementation of maximum tariffs approved for the 2025-2029 regulatory periods in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenues increased by 23.9%, supported by continued growth across the business lines operated directly by GAP, as well as the consolidation of the Cross Border Xpress beginning on the first of May of this year. Without considering the consolidation of the CBX, revenue from the business lines operated directly by GAP once again delivered strong growth, increasing by 17%, despite lower passenger traffic. The cargo and bonded warehouse operations grew by 22%, advertising by 58%, hotel operations by 27%, convenience stores by 11%, and parking by 9%. Let's just take a pause here because this demonstrates that GAP's commercial strategy does not solely depend on passenger volume. The commercial strategy we have in place increasingly reflects our ability to improve monetization, expand directly operated platforms, and capture a greater share of passenger and logistics-related spending. Thus, these measures are becoming a more significant source of recurring earnings and central to our strategy of building a more diversified infrastructure platform. At the same time, businesses that are more directly exposed to international leisure traffic and foreign exchange, including duty-free and VIP lounge, remain under pressure. We expect these categories to improve as international traffic gradually recovers. In terms of CBX, this operation generated revenue of MXN 168 million during the months of May and June, when we experienced over 626,000 passengers using the facility in both directions. This generates an average revenue of $42.8 per passenger, which is aligned with GAP expectations. Although CBX traffic figures remain below those of the prior year, this initial financial contribution demonstrates the strength and resilience of the pricing and commercial model. We continue to see opportunities in dynamic pricing, ancillary services, passenger experience, and improved connectivity between Tijuana and Southern California. Moving on, total operating costs remained relatively stable compared to the same period of last year. This result includes the positive effect of the reversal of the technical assistance fee provision due to the internalization. It also includes two months of CBX operation expenses and the one-off merger-related expenses. Excluding these effects, operating expenses increased by 3% compared to the second quarter of 2025. Cost of service primarily increased due to higher personnel expenses, maintenance costs, and security expenses across our airports network. As a result, EBITDA increased by 8.4%, reaching MXN 6 billion during the quarter, an EBITDA margin of 69.3%. In terms of our financial position, we continue to maintain a solid liquidity profile. The business combination contributed MXN 5.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and further strengthened the scale and diversification of our asset base. Moving on to CapEx, we continue to execute our investment program under the 2025-2029 Master Development Plan in Mexico and our capital development programs in Jamaica. Our investment remains focused on expanding airport capacity, improving operational infrastructure, and enhancing passenger experience throughout, all while supporting the long-term growth of our airport network. Let me now turn to the revised 2026 growth guidance. Considering the consolidation of CBX, internalization of technical assistance services, current passenger traffic trends, and the progress of the company's investment projects, we have updated our annual expectations. Currently, we expect passenger traffic to land in a range of between -3% and flat growth. I just want to mention that this outlook reflects a gradual improvement during the second half, but does not assume that all airports return to growth at the same time, or that Puerto Vallarta and Montego Bay achieve a complete recovery during 2026. Our aeronautical revenues are expected to increase between 1% and 4%, supported by the implementation of tariffs approved by the authority for our airports in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenues are expected to grow between 21% and 24%, driven by the performance of GAP-operated business as well as the consolidation of CBX. EBITDA is expected to grow between 10% and 12%. This would yield an EBITDA margin of approximately 67%, ±1%. This reflects, among other factors, the internalization of technical assistance and technology transfer services. Finally, CapEx is expected to be around MXN 4 billion; this includes MXN 9 billion for committed investment at airports in Mexico under the Master Development Plan, MXN 2 billion for investment at airports in Jamaica, and MXN 1 billion for commercial investments. As a follow-up, we continue to undergo the approval process with the relevant authorities to incorporate FIBRA GAP, with the objective of subscribing a minority equity interest in the 12 Mexican airport concession areas. We expect this to occur during the third quarter of this year, and we will keep you informed of any updates on this process. Before concluding, I would like to emphasize three points. First, despite the 5.6% overall decline in passenger traffic, the stronger underlying airport business protected the company's earnings capacity. Note that reported EBITDA increased by 8.4%, and the EBITDA margin expanded to 69.3%. Second, our diversification strategies are already producing measurable results. Excluding CBX, business operated directly by GAP grew by 17%, while CBX contributed MXN 216 million in EBITDA during the first two months of consolidation. Third, our long-term strategy remains unchanged. We continue investing in airport capacity, commercial platform, logistics, and cross-border mobility while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. This quarter demonstrates that GAP is no longer dependent on a single growth driver. Traffic remains fundamental to our business, but approved tariffs, directly operating commercial business, logistics, CBX, and internalization of technical assistance services provide complementary sources of earnings and revenues. Thank you again for your time. Operator, please open the line for questions.

If you'd like to ask a question over the phone, please press star one on your keypad, and you'll be placed into the queue in order received. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing pound one. As a reminder, participants joining via webcast may submit questions at any time using the Q&A function. For a question on the phone, press star one, and we'll pause briefly. Our first question comes from Rodolfo Ramos of Bradesco BBI.

Good morning. Thank you, Raul, Saúl, and Jesús for the call. I've got two questions, if I may. The first one is about your traffic guidance. We were never too optimistic on the World Cup effect, but we were surprised by how weak performance was during the month of June, not just for you, but for the system. Looking at your guidance, it implies better performance in this second half, as you mentioned some of these factors. Can you elaborate how you see them playing out in that recovery, and perhaps some thoughts on your expectations for 2027? Second, if I may, can you update us on the FIBRA listing, and if you can, just to shed a little bit of visibility and clarity on the rationale. Can you put a ballpark figure? I know it might be difficult, but how should we look at your effective tax rate post this FIBRA transaction? Thank you.

Thank you, Rodolfo. This is Raúl. In terms of our traffic guidance, what we saw during the World Cup or during the month of June was a significant change in airfares that in some way decelerated demand for many domestic travelers, both leisure and business, who in a normal month would fly to many of our airports. So what we saw is, I would say, a temporary effect of some passengers not flying during the World Cup because of higher airfares. We are also seeing a substitution of seats. The business traffic that usually comes to Guadalajara or even Tijuana was, in some way, replaced by fans or people coming for the matches. What we are seeing for the coming months is a July that should bring some of those domestic passengers back. Many domestic leisure passengers in Mexico who avoided flying during June for the World Cup appear likely to fly in July. For the rest of the months, we are seeing some additional seats coming for some of our leisure destinations. We are also seeing different openings happening in the domestic market, mainly by Volaris. So in general terms, we are seeing that the end of the year is going to be, I would say, a flat result for the 12 months of 2026.

Hi, this is Saúl. Regarding FIBRA, as you know, this is a different vehicle and it's our first time with this instrument. We are in the process of incorporating the trust. We are in the final stage of meetings with different investors. As you may know, as a new instrument for financing the Master Development Plan, there are several considerations. We are trying to move forward, and we believe that in the following weeks we'll be ready to launch the FIBRA. On the other hand, related to the expected tax rate, this vehicle will be transparent for tax purposes, but it will include only the Mexican airports. At the end, we will be transferring dividends directly to GAP without paying taxes at the airport level. But at GAP's level, we will be paying taxes as a regular company. There won't be an expected permanent benefit on tax. We may have a transition period, probably during 2026-2027, in which we could obtain a small decrease in effective tax rate because of temporary interest tax shields; this would be only a temporary effect and not permanent. In general terms, I would say there won't be any material change in GAP's effective tax rate.

Thank you.

Next we have Julia Orsi of J.P. Morgan.

Yes. Hello, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. We have two topics on our side. First, can you comment a bit on the maximum tariff compliance level that you reached in the second quarter, and what do you expect to reach by year-end? The second is a follow-up on traffic trends. Can you comment on 2027 trends? I know that it's still early, but it would be good to have your color on this. Thank you.

Thank you. This is Raúl. On the first six months of the year, we have achieved 90% fulfillment of the maximum tariff. We are expecting that by the end of the year this will be around 95%. We just changed tariffs again on the 1st of July for Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Mainly passenger fees for domestic passengers will increase an additional 7% beginning July 1st. In general terms, we expect to be really close to that 95% by year-end, while taking into account movements in the fixed rate and the dollar-peso exchange rate. For 2027, it's pretty early to provide a specific number. We see two major effects to consider. The first relates to oil prices and geopolitical tensions, for example in the Middle East, and how that would continue impacting airlines' costs and thus available capacity in leisure destinations. The second relates to the domestic market and potential impacts from any merger or consolidation among carriers, such as a possible combination of Viva and Volaris, which could affect capacity next year. In general terms, we expect growth in coming years, and we do not expect Hurricane Melissa to have a continuing effect; the trend in hotel capacity recovery in Jamaica suggests normalization by year-end. Overall, we think next year will be positive, but today it's difficult to specify a growth range for 2027.

Got it. Thank you.

Next, we have Pablo Ricalde of Itaú Unibanco.

Hi. Good morning, Raul. Good morning, team. I have two questions. The first one is an update on Jamaica. How are you seeing traffic trends across Jamaica for the second half of the year? I know you will face easier comps in November and December, but maybe you can provide some color on how you're seeing hotels and the airports and logistics on the island. The second question is on your guidance. Which FX assumption are you using to construct the new guidance? That's it on my side.

Hi, Pablo. This is Raúl. In the case of Jamaica, when the hurricane hit in late November, we saw a decrease in seats of almost 80% initially. By June, we saw a robust recovery. For July, we are still estimating about -20% in seats versus July 2025. What is interesting is that the capacity planned for the winter shows, at least in terms of seats, a full recovery for November and December and for the winter season in Jamaica. So in terms of offer, we are seeing almost a full recovery by the end of the year. Of course, it will be important to observe how demand reacts, but at least in terms of capacity we are seeing a strong recovery for the winter season.

Hi, Pablo. This is Saúl. Related to guidance: first, regarding passenger traffic, as Raúl mentioned, we expect the second half to be much better than the first half. We have a significant challenge moving from -5.6% in the first half to our guidance of -3% to flat for the full year, so the second half improvement is relevant. In terms of aeronautical revenues, we have been gradually updating aeronautical tariffs in Mexico; we made another small adjustment in mid-July. In the second half, that will have a minor effect that applies only to Puerto Vallarta and Cabos. Regarding non-aeronautical revenues, the integration of CBX is very relevant and consolidation will support the comps in the second half of the year. Those are the major assumptions considered in building the guidance. For CAPEX, we now have more visibility about the program and have incorporated that into the guidance.

Maybe, Saúl, a follow-up on that. Which FX assumption for the Mexican peso is embedded in the 10%-12% EBITDA growth guided for 2026?

We are not assuming any material change. We have seen some exchange rate movement in recent months. We are expecting second half on average MXN 17.5 per USD. It's not a material change relative to prior assumptions; we essentially used the same exchange rate assumptions when building guidance.

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, Saúl.

Just a reminder, participants joining via webcast may submit questions by using the Q&A function on your screen. We'll proceed with our next phone question from Enrique Cantú of GBM.

Hello, everyone. Thank you for your time. I just have one question. Could you provide more detail on the transaction-related expenses of the CBX acquisition that impacted profitability this quarter? Should we expect these costs to be fully behind us starting in the third quarter, or are there any additional integration-related expenses we should keep in mind over the coming quarters?

Hi, Enrique. This is Raúl. In terms of the CBX acquisition, the merger-related expenses are already reflected in the results. Looking ahead, we are working on integration and expect to capture savings. CBX historically operated as a standalone business; there are opportunities to bring efficiencies due to the merger. We expect that in the last quarter of this year we will see an improvement in CBX margins related to savings and to operating more directly from our headquarters in Guadalajara. That is the general expectation.

Okay. Thank you.

From Scotiabank, we have Gabriel Alfaro.

Hi, good morning, thanks for the call. Quick question. Traffic figures have been a bit soft and are expected to continue somewhat softer toward the end of this year. Could this be somehow compensated with higher tariffs beyond what is expected in the Master Development Plan? Or perhaps a faster pace of reaching the 100% maximum tariff? Or should we wait until the next Master Development Plan to see compensation for this? Thank you.

Hi, Gabriel. Regarding our concession titles, the traffic risk is borne by the concessionaire, GAP, and we do not receive automatic compensation if the actual passenger levels are below prior forecasts. What is important to take into account is that when preparing the next Master Development Plan in 2029 or 2030, a lower passenger base could lead to changes in planned CAPEX. A lower passenger base could reduce CAPEX needs, and in turn could influence tariff calculations. Looking specifically to next year, the idea is to seek an increase in passenger fees in January. We are beginning the process with the Communications and Transportation Secretariat. We expect to be close to 100% of fulfillment of the maximum tariff in the coming year. There will be some offset to results in the coming year from tariff increases. We expect some passenger increases, but we do not yet have full detail on the magnitude of 2027 effects.

Okay, thank you. If I may, what are your expectations for the rest of the year in terms of dividends and distributions?

Hi, Gabriel. We will continue distributing at similar levels as prior years. GAP is one of the higher dividend payers. At the shareholders meeting we approved the distribution of MXN 0.2080 per ordinary share. We are concluding consolidation of the new releases to make the next dividend payment. We expect to make two distributions in two different dates: likely one in this quarter and a second in the last quarter of the year.

Cool. Thank you very much.

That was our final question from the phone. We will now move to questions submitted through the webcast. I'll turn the call over to Alejandra Soto, Investor Relations Officer, to read the questions.

Thank you. We only have one follow-up question on passenger growth from Francisco Suarez from Scotiabank. He asks: Thanks for the color on how a relief from higher airfares after the World Cup ends could improve traffic and your outlook on seat capacity. Very appreciated. There are additional factors playing into weak demand among domestic passengers, namely affordability issues for customers and macro data that points to weak consumption in Mexico.

Sure. Hi, Paco. This is Raúl. We are in the middle of multiple effects. We have higher oil costs impacting airlines and increasing their costs, which directly affects demand. There has been some capacity reduction related to fuel costs. We have the impact of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, and we have security concerns in Puerto Vallarta. That is one of our primary concerns right now for passenger trends. We also know that consumption in Mexico is decreasing and macro indicators point to weak or flatter GDP growth. What is interesting is that GDP is growing at different paces across Mexican states. We think Jalisco, and Guadalajara in particular, will continue to see stronger consumption and economic activity. We are seeing similar dynamics in Baja California Sur. On the other hand, we are seeing negative impacts in Baja California and the manufacturing sector in Tijuana that could have negative effects on our traffic. In general terms, we are in a flatter economy that will have some impact on passenger growth in the coming months. It will be useful to have a deeper understanding of GDP and local GDP trends across states to better anticipate passenger growth in the months and years ahead.

Thank you, Raúl. This is the last one from the webcast. I will turn the call back to the regular queue.

Raúl, we have one more question on the phone line from Anton Mortenkotter of GBM.

Hi, guys. Thank you for the call. Just a quick one. Considering all of these external effects, like pressures on oil prices, would you ever consider granting concessions to airlines in order to relieve possible pressure on traffic demand? Meaning maybe lowering tariffs or granting some discounts to boost overall traffic, essentially sharing the effect of these external pressures? Thank you.

Thank you, Anton. For the moment, we are not considering broad concessions or discounts to airlines in this environment. We have offered specific support in the past on particular routes that suffer connectivity risks, and we will continue to review cases individually. If there is a risk of losing connectivity at an airport, we have historically implemented targeted measures. But we are not seeing a need for widespread discounts across all airlines at this time.

Super. Thank you.

We have no further questions on the phone lines. Raúl, back over to you for any additional or closing comments.

Thank you once again for joining us today. Please contact our investor relations team with any additional questions you may have. Have a great day, and thank you for your attention.

That concludes today's GAP conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.