管理層發言
Good day, and welcome to the NextEra Energy, Inc. Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Dowling, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 financial results conference call for NextEra Energy. With me this morning are John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy; Mike Dunne, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy; Armando Pimentel, Vice Chairman of NextEra Energy; Scott Bores, President and Chief Executive Officer of Florida Power & Light Company; Brian Bolster, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy Resources; and Mark Hickson, Executive Vice President of NextEra Energy. John will start with opening remarks, and then Mike will provide an overview of our results. Our executive team will then be available to answer your questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this call based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, www.nexteraenergy.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure. With that, I will turn the call over to John.
Thanks, Michael, and good morning, everyone. NextEra Energy delivered a strong second quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $1.15, reflecting continued operational and financial execution across both FPL and Energy Resources. Through the first 6 months of the year, our adjusted earnings per share increased 9.8% year-over-year. NextEra Energy continues to be well positioned to deliver on its growth opportunities in its regulated and long-term contracted businesses in 2026 and beyond. Power demand continues to accelerate. NextEra Energy is uniquely positioned to meet the power demand needs of our customers because we have the scale, financial strength, supply chain, development expertise and technology to build all forms of energy. Customers can't afford to wait for an energy partner to secure equipment, land or financing. And states shouldn't have to choose between economic growth and affordable electric bills.
Today, energy partners must deliver both. This is exactly what FPL and Energy Resources consistently do as we execute against our 12 ways to grow. Our deeply experienced teams are focused on serving our customers and delivering them the solutions they need when and where they need it. We believe FPL continues to be one of the best examples of how to serve rapid growth while keeping customer bills low and reliability high. The state remains one of the fastest growing in the nation supported by a large and increasingly diverse economy, continued net in migration, job creation and business investment. In fact, Florida's $1.8 trillion annual economy is now the 14th largest in the world, recently surpassing Australia and Mexico. That growth translates directly into electricity demand across our service area, including the Space Coast, and FPL is uniquely positioned to meet it. FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the second quarter compared to the prior year comparable quarter.
What differentiates FPL is that we don't choose between affordability, reliability and serving growth. We consistently deliver all 3 at the same time. Today, FPL's typical residential bill remains approximately 30% below the national average and is only projected to increase 2% annually on average through the end of the decade. We drive consistently low bills through exceptional operational efficiency. FPL's nonfuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average on a $1 per megawatt hour basis. Customers also continue to benefit from top decile reliability. That's more than 60% better than the national average. This performance is the direct result of a proven long-term strategy centered on sustained, disciplined capital investment; scale; a strong balance sheet and credit rating; a highly efficient operating model; and a diverse generation fleet. In fact, during the quarter, FPL placed into service 4 new cost-effective solar sites to support Florida's growth.
And we remain on track to meet our full year expectations to install approximately 900 megawatts of solar and over 1.4 gigawatts of battery storage. It's why FPL continues to own and operate more solar and storage than any utility in America. Importantly, FPL is positioned to develop new cost-effective solar and storage for the benefit of its customers because approximately 90% of our generation mix is anchored in baseload gas-fired and nuclear generation, the result of sustained investments over the last 25 years to modernize our power plant fleet while meeting power demand from significant population growth. We continue to see very strong interest from hyperscalers and other large load customers that value speed to market, reliability and competitive power pricing. That is why in May, we updated our expectations from 6 gigawatts to 8 gigawatts of large load by 2032. As part of FPL's new 4-year rate agreement, we designed our large load tariff to protect our existing customers.
We believe our large load tariff is industry-leading. In fact, in May, Florida's governor signed a bill that codified many aspects of FPL's large load tariff into law. And yesterday, along with Dominion Energy and certain other utilities, we announced our support for the White House's Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which reinforces this principle of large load customers paying their fair share. Importantly, it's aligned with how we already approach our infrastructure projects to serve large load customers. We have roughly 21 gigawatts of large load interest at FPL. Of that, we are in advanced discussions on 12 gigawatts, a portion of which we believe we could begin serving as soon as 2028. FPL is advancing negotiations with large load customers and continues to expect to announce at least one large load transaction under FPL's tariff by the end of the year. Initially, we expect every gigawatt of large load under FPL's approved tariff to be equivalent to roughly $2 billion of CapEx and to earn the same return on equity as other FPL investments.
Bottom line, we believe FPL's opportunity set has never been clearer, a rapidly growing service area, a disciplined and constructive regulatory framework, scale complemented by a best-in-class operating model and a long runway of investment opportunities, all while continuing to do what matters most, which is delivering reliable, affordable electricity for our customers every single day. Turning to NextEra Energy Transmission. During the quarter, it energized a new transmission line in New Mexico to strengthen the grid in a growing part of the state, demonstrating why it is one of America's leading independent electric transmission companies. The team delivered the 137-mile, 345 kV line ahead of schedule and on budget. This project is projected to reduce typical residential electric bills in 2031 by approximately $13 per month based on an independent study performed by the Southwest Power Pool, providing a clear and tangible example of how smart transmission investments can directly improve affordability for customers.
The project took just 31 months from being awarded to being placed in service, one of the fastest transmission development and construction projects anywhere in the industry. This reinforces what we believe is a core differentiator for Energy Resources, our ability to consistently execute and bring critical infrastructure online at a time when speed matters most for customers. NextEra Energy Transmission also continues to win new competitive transmission projects across the United States. During the quarter, MISO selected NextEra Energy Transmission as part of a consortium to develop 2 large-scale 765 kV transmission projects in Illinois. NextEra Energy Transmission would have 43% ownership of the approximately $1.6 billion project, which aims to serve as a backbone system to deliver reliable, cost-competitive energy across the Midwest. As I've said many times, power generation alone can't and won't meet this unique moment.
This country also needs a new transmission infrastructure to reliably deliver electricity to our communities. It's why NextEra Energy Transmission is focused on delivering the solutions for customers. Including both transmission and generation, Energy Resources has one of the strongest and differentiated energy infrastructure platforms in the country. At a time when customers need tailored solutions, more capacity and speed to market, Energy Resources is uniquely positioned to deliver. For the quarter, Energy Resources added 3.6 gigawatts of renewables and storage projects to its backlog, its second largest quarter of additions coming on the heels of last quarter's record 4 gigawatts. Battery storage represented 2 gigawatts of additions this quarter. Battery storage remains an important growth driver, and we believe we are exceptionally well positioned to deliver this capacity solution for customers.
That's because we have several ways to develop storage. We can build it as a stand-alone project. We can co-locate storage across our existing renewable sites. We can develop batteries as grid solutions, and we can expand 4-hour batteries to 8 hours at our existing storage sites. Put simply, the opportunity set for battery storage is significant. And because of the size and diversity of our asset portfolio, co-located storage is a meaningful differentiator for us. Our stand-alone and co-located battery storage pipeline sits at over 110 gigawatts without including our expansion opportunities. More broadly, our backlog provides meaningful visibility into future growth and underscores the value of our long-term contracted business. We also continue to execute on recontracting projects within our operating portfolio that are coming off contract. Since the last earnings call, we recontracted over 500 megawatts of existing projects.
This brings our year-to-date recontracting total to over 1,100 megawatts of renewables. This quarter's recontractings have been priced on average at a premium of roughly $20 per megawatt hour above recent realized pricing for these projects. And we have also locked in contracts for approximately 15 years on average, reflecting the strong electricity demand environment we're seeing today. As a reminder, Energy Resources has up to 6 gigawatts of renewables and 1.5 gigawatts of nuclear recontracting opportunities through 2032. Another major area of opportunity is large load demand and our data center hub strategy. Hyperscalers and other large load customers are increasingly focused on speed, certainty and scalability, and that plays directly to our strengths. We believe Energy Resources is one of the few companies in the country that can support these customers with a full suite of solutions from renewables and battery storage in the near term to gas-fired generation and potentially nuclear over time.
In fact, we now have 30 potential hubs we are discussing with the market, and we continue to expect that number to rise to 40 by year-end. We also have 4 origination channels feeding into our base case goal of securing 15 gigawatts of new generation to serve large load by 2035. These 4 origination channels won't just help us achieve our base case of 15 gigawatts, they can also help us achieve our upside case of 30 gigawatts or more by 2035. Our channels include working directly with hyperscalers, with investor-owned utilities, with cooperative and municipal utilities and with federal partners. Importantly, we continue to position Energy Resources to where the market is moving. Our bring-your-own generation approach with hyperscalers resonates because it provides a way to meet incremental demand either in front of the meter or behind the meter, while helping protect affordability for existing retail customers.
We believe FERC's Section 206 show cause orders that were announced in June will create yet another market shift and generate strong demand for the ability to match load with generation. We spent the last 18 months preparing and positioning our business to deliver that solution for customers. The recommissioning of our Duane Arnold nuclear plant is a perfect example of matching electric load with power generation. We remain on track to bring the plant back online no later than Q1 2029. Since our last call, the Iowa Utilities Commission approved a generating certificate for the plant, and we also successfully closed on the acquisition of the final 30% minority interest in the plant held by our 2 cooperative partners, making us the sole owner. We continue to advance development of up to 9.5 gigawatts of gas-fired generation projects in Texas and Pennsylvania. In March, the President approved the projects which are drawn from our existing inventory of data center hubs.
While not yet complete, we continue to progress discussions on definitive agreements with the U.S. and Japanese governments. We also continue to evaluate advanced nuclear, closely evaluating the capabilities of various SMR OEMs. We have 6 gigawatts of SMR co-location opportunities at our nuclear sites, and we are working to develop new greenfield sites. Of course, any new nuclear build would have to include the right commercial terms and conditions with appropriate risk-sharing mechanisms that limit our ultimate exposure. In short, we're off to a strong first half of the year, and I'm as confident and as excited as ever about our prospects to deliver on our 12 ways to grow in the second half of 2026 and beyond. At the same time, we continue to advance our combination with Dominion Energy. On July 15, we filed for merger approval with the Virginia State Corporation Commission, North Carolina Utilities Commission and the Public Service Commission of South Carolina.
The Virginia filing initiated the state's statutory 6-month review process. The company has also filed for merger approval with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. And we filed the S-4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 9, which became effective yesterday. We expect to distribute proxy materials to shareholders in the near future and expect Dominion to do the same and are anticipating both shareholder meetings to be held in early September. We believe our proposed combination is a natural extension of our capabilities and experience. We're putting a larger NextEra Energy platform behind Dominion Energy at the exact time when scale matters more than ever to face a set of challenges unlike anything the utility industry has seen in decades. As I've said before, this is a merger of addition, not subtraction. The rare example of when 1 plus 1 equals 3.
Simply put, combining NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy would drive affordability, create local jobs and deliver all forms of energy infrastructure, including battery storage by leveraging the strengths of 2 industry leaders and sharing best practices in grid modernization, storm restoration, customer service, workforce tools, data analytics, artificial intelligence and process improvement, just to name a few. Let's start with affordability. As we said in May, in the near term, we are offering $2.25 billion in shareholder-funded bill credits to Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina. This is a meaningful, concrete and substantial benefit, but the combination also adds capabilities that will benefit customers long after we've delivered these initial bill credits. The increased scale and enhanced operating platform of the 2 companies will help maintain affordability at a time when power demand requires more investment in generation and transmission.
Buying, building, financing and operating energy infrastructure more efficiently benefits customers over time. It's exactly what we've done at FPL, which is why our typical customer bill today is 20% lower than it was 20 years ago in real dollars. The proposed combination would also serve as an economic catalyst. We expect to more than double the size of our combined company by 2032, which would mean good jobs for many years to come for our talented teams across the 4 states we would serve and across America where we operate. As with NextEra Energy, Dominion Energy's employees are one of the company's greatest strengths with an unmatched understanding of the customers and communities they serve. In addition, the fabric of a well-run utility is a company that's strongly embedded in the community it serves. That's exactly why the combined company will maintain dual headquarters in Richmond, Virginia, and Juno Beach, Florida, along with an operational headquarters in Cayce, South Carolina.
We also have a retention commitment for Dominion Energy employees, but that just scratches the surface. Remember, building new energy infrastructure creates new jobs. And building that new infrastructure while maintaining affordable and reliable power attracts new residents and businesses, which then requires new infrastructure. The cycle then repeats. Meeting this moment requires all forms of energy infrastructure. That's exactly what this combination would deliver. As I mentioned earlier, we are not dependent on a single piece of technology. NextEra Energy is the world leader in renewables and storage. We're also a leader in gas-fired and nuclear generation, and we're a leader in transmission. And we build and operate energy infrastructure better than anyone in our industry. We'd be taking these capabilities and pairing them up with Dominion Energy's local operations, leadership, expertise, community presence and history of outstanding service, better positioning the company over the long term.
To be clear, this isn't about changing what's worked for Dominion Energy. Rather, this combination is about Dominion Energy adding the undeniable benefits of being part of a larger combined company with deep skill sets and experience across the energy value chain, providing access to scale and an industry-leading platform and balance sheet. Scale matters because it creates efficiencies that compound over time into lower cost, better experience and stronger outcomes for customers, which has never been more important given the challenges being faced today. As we discussed in May, the combined company is expected to support approximately 11% annual growth in regulatory capital employed through 2032 and 9% plus adjusted EPS growth through 2032 with a 9% plus target through 2035, all off a 2025 base. Just as importantly, the opportunity set becomes broader and more diversified. We expect the combination will close in the second half of 2027. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
Thanks, John. Let's begin with FPL's detailed results. For the second quarter of 2026, FPL's earnings per share increased $0.05 year-over-year. Regulatory capital employed growth of approximately 9.3% was a significant driver of FPL's earnings per share growth versus the prior year comparable quarter. FPL's capital expenditures were approximately $2.8 billion for the quarter, and we expect FPL's full year capital investments to be between $12 billion and $13 billion. For the 12 months ending June 2026, FPL's reported return on equity for regulatory purposes will be approximately 11.7%. During the second quarter, we reversed approximately $110 million of the rate stabilization mechanism, leaving FPL with an after-tax balance of approximately $1.3 billion. Key indicators show that Florida's economy remains healthy. Florida continues to be one of the fastest-growing states in the nation and is currently ranked #1 in GDP growth and #1 in net migration by U.S. News.
And as John mentioned, FPL had a strong quarter of customer growth with the average number of customers increasing by over 90,000 from the comparable prior year period. FPL's second quarter retail sales increased by approximately 0.4% year-over-year. After taking weather into account, second quarter retail sales increased by roughly 0.6% on a weather-normalized basis from the comparable prior year period, driven primarily by continued favorable underlying population growth. Now let's turn to Energy Resources, which reported adjusted earnings growth of approximately 18% year-over-year. Contributions from new investments increased $0.09 per share year-over-year, primarily reflecting continued growth in our power generation portfolio. On a net basis, the remaining drivers for Energy Resources were roughly flat as various onetime items and timing impacts offset each other. We remain well positioned to navigate the current interest rate environment through our over $46 billion interest rate hedging program.
We have also planned for potential trade impacts and positioned ourselves to deliver and execute for our customers. That's why we've proactively secured supply to support both FPL and Energy Resources development plans, including the development of our national data center hub footprint. For solar, we've secured panels through 2029. We're also well protected for battery storage with competitively priced domestic supply also secured through 2029. We have sufficient wind sites with expected federal permits to meet development expectations through 2029. And we have sufficient transformer capacity to support our build forecast through the end of the decade. Energy Resources had a strong quarter of new renewables and storage origination with 3.6 gigawatts added to the backlog. With these additions, our backlog now totals approximately 35.1 gigawatts after taking into account 1.1 gigawatts of new projects placed into service since our last earnings call.
This highlights the continued strong demand for renewables and storage. Energy Resources 2026 to 2029 backlog represents approximately 2/3 of its development expectations midpoint through 2029. Overall, we are well positioned with approximately 2 years to add 18.6 gigawatts to our backlog to be at the midpoint of those expectations. Turning now to our second quarter 2026 consolidated results. Adjusted earnings from Corporate and Other decreased by $0.04 per share year-over-year. Our 2026 adjusted earnings per share expectations range of $3.92 to $4.02 remains unchanged, and we are targeting the high end of that range. We expect to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8% plus through 2032 and are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035, all off the 2025 base of $3.71 of adjusted earnings per share. From 2025 to 2032, we expect that our average annual growth in operating cash flow will be at or above our adjusted earnings per share compound annual growth rate range.
And we also continue to expect to grow our dividends per share roughly 10% per year through 2026 off a 2024 base and 6% per year from year-end 2026 through 2028. As always, our expectations assume our caveats. That concludes our prepared remarks. And with that, we will open the line for questions.
分析師問答
The first question today comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Thanks for the updates today. So just, I guess, two questions. First, on the S-4 filing. Obviously, as always, they have in there an internal forecast for the company. And based on the share count they used, it looked like it might imply earnings growth for the stand-alone company of 9% or better. And then the NEER EBITDA looks like it might be about $5 billion higher in 2032 than the Analyst Day number. So maybe you could give us some color: are you just being conservative with your guidance? Are there certain assumptions in there that are different from those in the guidance? How should we think about that forecast in the S-4?
Thanks, Steve. Mike Dunne here. Let me address those. As you know, we continuously revise our forecast internally, and one of the things we do well is provide new forecasts eight to ten times per year. When you look at our S-4, one key item you will see is that adjusted EBITDA at Energy Resources is roughly $4 billion higher in 2032 than we had in our December investor conference. The primary driver of that $4 billion increase is stronger-than-anticipated originations on the renewables and storage side compared with what we forecast in December. Our overall development expectations remain the same; we have not made material changes to our forecast. As we have discussed, FPL has increased its large load expectations from 6 gigawatts to 8 gigawatts. So the increased performance is really driven by the returns and earnings profile we are seeing in renewables and storage development and in our originations going forward. As you mentioned, Steve, people can do the math on what that forecast looks like. We're obviously not changing our current development or our current earnings expectations. They remain at 8% plus through 2032 with a target of 8% plus through 2035. We stand by these projections as our best forecast of what this business can achieve at this time.
Okay. That was very clear and helpful. The other question is just on the federal hub projects. John, I think you said in the last call, 2 to 3 months, hopefully, have them done and that's kind of now. So maybe you could just talk to what's caused any delay? Is it just more logistical timing things? Or is there some issues in terms of just actually getting them to the goal line?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Steve. Let me just start by talking about the hub program in general. Then I'll turn to the federal hub. First of all, we feel really, really good about where we are on our hub strategy in addition to the execution we've seen on the renewable origination side. I would characterize it as we feel like we're ahead of schedule. And when I look at the second half of the year and beyond, it's shaping up very well. You can't always time these things around these calls, but I think the takeaway for investors should be that we're ahead of schedule. Let me turn quickly to your question at hand, which is talking about the 9.5 gigawatts we're working with the United States government and the Japanese government on, which continues to progress. As I said in our prepared remarks, we're continuing to make progress. And it's just when you bring two large nation states together, things don't always go according to schedule in terms of getting things done as fast as you might want.
But I wouldn't read too much into that. When I look at our overall origination program, Mike hit on this, but you look at where we are, some of this is reflected in the S-4, just continuing to make a lot of progress there. So if you take our four-year program and you look through 2029 on the renewables and storage side, we're ahead of schedule. You basically have to do 9 gigawatts a year over the next two years to hit the midpoint of our expectations over that four-year period through 2029. We're taking our federal hubs up from 30 to 40, which is going to give us even more opportunities in the market. And I think a lot of those hubs are located in the right areas because we have terrific data sets and technology and a lot of lessons learned on where hyperscalers want to be. So the bottom line is things are continuing to track well and we feel good about where we are, and also at FPL. That's why we took our forecast up from 6 to 8 gigawatts, continue to see a lot of interest in Florida and feel good about our ability to announce a large load transaction there by the end of the year, which is the expectation we continue to express to investors.
The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.
Nicely done. Maybe to pick up where Steve left off, why don't we pick up the 6 to 8. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the ground in Florida and the additional data center development? This has really been a nice blossoming here. Can you speak to what you're seeing on the ground? And also, just to follow up on what you said a second ago, would you expect to announce these on the quarterly calls, or given their material nature would they necessitate filing an 8-K during the quarter?
Yes. So let me just start with the first one. I'll turn it over to Scott here in a minute. But I think a lot of what we're seeing in Florida, Julien, is just a testament to a lot of what I spent my time talking about in the prepared remarks. We've just done a really solid job in execution across Florida. I think that's recognized across the hyperscale space. I think the fact that we can build at a low cost is appealing to folks. And when you think about where the market is heading and what's happened over the last couple of years, a lot of low-hanging fruit from utilities that might have been in an excess generation position. That surplus generation has been sold off, right? And now if you look at FERC show cause order matching load with gen and making sure large load pays their own way, I mean, it's really going to, I think, shift the scales to creating a level playing field where people are going to have to compete on cost. And I think that makes Florida very compelling because of the execution track record that we have been able to demonstrate at FPL over a number of years. But with that, Scott, I'll turn it over to you to add any additional points you want to make.
Yes. Thanks, John. I think the only other point I would add to this, Julien, is number one, having that legislation come in place in May allows for a lot of certainty for these customers that are going to make multibillion-dollar investments in the state of Florida. So I think that gives us a good foundation to build upon. I think the other thing that's important is what John mentioned in his prepared remarks, having 90% of our fleet in baseload gas generation and nuclear really allows us to quickly and easily integrate additional generation to provide the speed to market that all these customers are looking at. And so we feel really good about the 12 gigawatts that we have in advanced discussions. And as John said, we feel really confident about making a large load announcement before the end of the year.
Got it. Even into...
Yes. Last thing I'd just note there is when things are important to our business, we're going to tell the market. So we won't wait until the quarter just to have a story for a quarterly call.
Excellent. I know people love to debate that. And then just if you can elaborate briefly here, how do you think about potentially looking at the strategic nature of your business and expanding your footprint? I know you guys have looked at, for instance, linear infrastructure at times. Just obviously, Dominion now pending here, but how do you think about leaning further into this data center opportunity and sort of the adjacencies that you guys have been dabbling with, shall we say, prior to this latest deal?
Yes. Great question, Julien. When I think strategically about the business, we have put a big priority on vertical integration. If you look at the vertical integration we have at NextEra across the board, which really translates into our operating platform, we have all the pieces. So when you're not only trying to solve more rudimentary or customary energy solutions for customers, we certainly have the capability to do that. But when you start to think about large load and all the capabilities that have to come together — renewable expertise, storage, gas-fired generation, potentially nuclear under the right structure, transmission, building gas pipelines and laterals, a retail energy business to help with the large load queue process, and the ability to manage molecules and power flows across the country — we can bring those pieces together. The Symmetry acquisition is a good example of improving vertical integration; it makes us the third largest gas marketer in the country.
We have a very good understanding of where those gas flows occur and how they translate into valuable solutions for customers. We have similar expertise on the power marketing side as well. When I look across the board at that vertical integration skill set and consider who is actually building new generation solutions, there really aren't that many folks doing it because it takes experience and the ability to assemble all those vertically integrated capabilities. That is what puts us in a unique position. That goes back to my answer to Steve: I feel like we're ahead of schedule. A lot of the opportunities we've put forward and the work we did over the past 18 months anticipated the shift to build-your-own generation being the right answer rather than recontracting existing assets. I think we have a definite first-mover advantage and I'm very excited about the market potential we see across the board.
All of those vertically integrated skill sets will, I think, help immensely with the Dominion merger because we have them at scale. It translates into the ability to deliver affordability, create jobs, support economic development in those states, and deliver the right growth solutions for each jurisdiction in a way that produces good outcomes for customers. But it's complicated. With everything going on in PJM and the FERC show cause order, it requires an energy thought leader with experience across the United States. We've seen what every ISO does; we've had 20 years of experience working across this country. I think we'll be a valuable thought leader, able to bring constructive ideas forward in an economic and affordable way that will translate into reliable, affordable solutions for customers over time.
The next question comes from Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Thanks for all the details. I wanted to ask about the renewables recontracting average premium of $20 to realized pricing on a 15-year term. I know you have more contracting to do, so in the context of the 8% plus and the recently updated stand-alone plan, is that included and trending better than plan? And if origination performance is trending better on the storage and renewables side, could you give an update on where you’re seeing returns?
Yes. I'll start and then turn things over to Brian. When you think about renewables and contracting, we've always said there's immense option value that increases the terminal value of all the investments we make. Looking at our investment footprint across renewables, it creates two or three different opportunities. One is recontracting. We also benefit from substantial energy demand trying to be met by generation solutions while supply is not matching demand today, which is driving higher pricing and creating significant opportunities that improve the terminal value of our entire portfolio. There is option value embedded in everything we've built. I talked a lot about storage as a co-location opportunity around our solar and wind portfolio, and basically every asset we build comes with a large storage opportunity. One thing we haven't spent enough time on is the hubs and the option value they create.
When you build a hub rooted in gas-fired generation, for example, to meet NERC requirements, it will also need a behind-the-meter reliability solution with storage. Every hub we build is a major enabler for battery storage, which we don't really spend enough time talking about. Bringing these hubs together, and thinking about speed to power and long-term solutions as you ramp with your hyperscale customer and they grow into their compute capacity at a site, that speed-to-power solution often starts with a renewable solution because we can get it to market in 12 to 18 months, then move to gas, then add more battery storage to provide redundancy behind the meter. There is immense option value in what we've built. On the returns side, we continue to see returns trend up across the board. As we move forward with scale solutions around hubs, they command a premium because of our ability to provide a comprehensive solution across generation types and to bring other benefits through our vertical integration strategy and operating platform. It's a unique skill set that few have, and the market is willing to pay for it. That's how I look at it, Nick. Brian, do you have anything you want to add?
No, I think the experience we're seeing in the market is that projects are getting bigger and more complex, and they require, as you said earlier, builders. So what we're seeing is an obvious need for power and for specific skill sets, and I think that's reflected in the returns we're seeing on our projects.
And Nick, just to bring this back to the financial questions that you asked, these recontractings and these increased returns that we are seeing are all reflected in the numbers as we discussed in the S-4.
Really appreciate it. And then maybe just moving to the transaction with Dominion. You announced it in May. You've had a lot of time to interact with state-level leadership and stakeholders. Just anything you can share from your conversations and reactions from local constituents? And as you've made these filings, given the complexity, is there anywhere that you're skewing within the 12 to 18 months to get this deal closed?
Yes. I would characterize the decisions or the conversations as going well. And our whole philosophy and approach is much like the approach we've taken at Florida Power & Light and the track record that we have in Florida Power & Light. And it's a customer-first approach. And what we've been able to explain local leadership is when we look at this opportunity, we really look at an opportunity to help the customer and help the customer at a time when there is accelerating power demand. And the ability to meet the growth to provide the generation solutions at scale at a lower cost is extremely important to be able to drive affordability over time. And then the ability to bring a suite of generation solutions to really help drive reliability, I think, is extremely attractive. Our track record on customer service as well. But when you really look at being able to demonstrate the most tangible example we can bring forward for state leadership is, again, Florida Power & Light.
When you have a bill that's more than 30% lower than the national average, 20% lower than it was in 2006 and in real dollars, O&M on $1 per megawatt hour basis, that's 70% better than the industry average, top decile reliability that's 60% better than the industry average, so on and so forth. Storm response in 3 states where storm response is very important, our track record there, very compelling, right? And the ability to do what these 3 states are facing because we've done it for 20 years in Florida. We faced significant growth in Florida for 20 straight years and have been able to do it by investing in new generation while keeping bills affordable. That track record speaks volumes for what the potential could be here. And then being able to do that in a way that preserves what those states are accustomed to seeing, which is that local feel, all that experience that Dominion brings at the local level, being able to interact with the same folks that are wearing the same shirts, the same name on the bucket trucks.
The interaction at the local level is not going to change. We're going to leverage what Dominion does best locally and its strong track record of operations, the cross learnings that we'll be able to have, but be able to support that local leadership with the scale and the operating platform that comes with the NextEra business, which just translates into affordability for customers across the board. So that message, I think, has been very well received. And I look at it even broader than that, which is the ability to create jobs by a company that's doubling its generation fleet by 2032, which is our expectation. And then the economic development partnership that comes for all 3 states. When you think about a company that's #1 in gas, the combined company, the #2 in nuclear, world's leader in renewables, world's leader in battery storage, a leader in transmission. We have the ability to bring economic growth to those states through OEMs, through EPC contractors and whatnot that have to be there to serve our needs.
And also, given the scale and the buying power that we have, are going to be encouraged to help support economic development in the states where we're located. So I think when you put that whole package together, so far, it's been well received. But look, ultimately, it'd be up to the states to decide. But so far, the conversations at the local level have gone well. In terms of your question on timing. Look, we still are looking at, I think, the second half of 2027, but we would obviously look for opportunities to move that up wherever we can.
The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Just wanted to shift gears a little bit, if I could, towards nuclear. And just wondering, there's a lot of talk out there, but want to see your updated thoughts on, I guess, what the possible time line could be for this coming to fruition in your view?
Well, when I think about nuclear, Jeremy, first of all, we are doing a lot on the nuclear front. Not only recommissioning Duane, which is going very well; I'm very happy with the execution I've seen from the team there, and I think it benefits a lot from many of the things we spent time talking about on this call. We've also focused on SMRs and done a lot of work around the OEMs, the commercial side, and technical viability assessments, which has been encouraging. But again, anything we do on the nuclear side has to be done under the right commercial structure. It's about finding a way to advance from first of a kind to nth of a kind without taking on customer overrun risk, which we would not do. There are a lot of, I'll call them, four or five wallets that come to the table. It's not only us as a developer; we would put a little capital at risk, but it has to be sensible and capped. You have the hyperscaler or the customer, whoever that might be, the U.S. government, the OEM, and potentially an EPC contractor working as part of that. So I remain encouraged that we'll be able to figure out a financial structure and build what I call an insurance tower that equitably allocates risk to the right places. The end result is that we're not taking cost overrun risk, and we're doing this in a measured way that makes sense for all of our stakeholders, including our shareholders.
Got it. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to shift back towards natural gas pipelines, if we could. We haven't really seen meaningful new greenfield development since Mountain Valley, your JV, completed a few years back, and there seems to be a lot of need for moving molecules across the country. It seems like the regulatory backdrop is more favorable than it has been in the past, and there's a lot of need for new logistics solutions. How do you see this moving forward at this point in time? And what would NextEra look to be involved?
Well, we're encouraged. I think you all know, we brought a senior executive over from Energy Transfer, who now leads our gas pipeline effort. We have a substantial gas pipeline opportunity set already put together. Obviously, there's a lot of expansion needs around the Southeast as you start thinking about accommodating a lot of the large load demand here and the need that the states in the Southeast are going to have, the expansion opportunities off of MVP. And then as we look at our hub strategy, the need for additional gas supply, whether it comes from laterals or actual gas pipeline development connected with that build, that's encouraging in terms of what the investment opportunity might look like there. So I'm very happy with the way things are trending. And I think we'll have some nice opportunities as we look to the future and have a renewed focus on gas pipeline development.
No, John, I agree with that. We're seeing that we proceeded in line with our expectations. We talked about our transmission business jointly with electric and gas moving from mid-single digits into the 20s, and I think that reflects some of our optimism. You've seen what we're doing around MVP and some of the opportunities for extensions or expansions on that. And I think John ran through it; we're participating on a number of different fronts. So our outlook is that it feels good over the next several years to deliver against those expectations we laid out back in December.
And just a quick one there. With Texas development, specifically Permian egress and servicing LNG, any of those factors be of interest to NextEra?
Yes. You're not going to see us participating in LNG, if that's your question.
Yes. Jeremy, I think the key piece here is that as we're building through, we're putting together capabilities that allow us to provide solutions for our customers. And as we look at our customers, that's our customers in Florida, that's our customers in as we combine with Dominion in South Carolina, Virginia and North Carolina to our hyperscalers and to our customers across the country. We don't see things like LNG as being part of that. This is all about how do we provide solutions that allow us to grow our company and to help our customers.
Next question comes from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe just a couple of follow-ups. One on the FPL large load opportunity. It certainly seems like the customer interest is strong. Just curious what appetite you've seen from local communities in Florida to hosting data centers. Do you see any risks around local level pushback to kind of realizing that opportunity set?
Carly, it's Scott. I think the important points here are finding the right locations that are going to welcome that and transparency in the process, right? I think we all saw Project Tango in West Palm Beach. I want to reiterate, that was never part of our development expectations and shows the importance of site selection and transparency. So I think there are a lot of spots in the state of Florida, and we are working with those communities that are really interested and have good locations that will be the perfect host for data centers. And so I think as we've said a few times on this call, we're very confident, and that's why we increased our development expectations to 8 gigawatts by 2032.
Great. Okay. That's really clear. And then just one other follow-up on the federal hubs. I think you had previously indicated that the Texas project could start up on the earlier side, maybe late '27, early '28. I guess just with the timing of the definitive agreements maybe taking a bit longer, any shifts to the earlier start potential of that particular project? Or perhaps, asked another way, is there a time that you would need to see movement in order to hit those targets?
Yes. Our timing hasn't changed, Carly, from where the negotiations are to where we're looking for those projects to come online. So we're continuing to move the development in the background while we work out the Ts and Cs with the government entities. So our expectation around when those projects will come online remains the same.
This concludes our question-and-answer session and concludes our conference call today. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.