管理層發言
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Grupo Cibest/Bancolombia Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your operator for today's call. Operator instructions were provided to participants. Please note that this conference call is being recorded. Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements, whether made in this conference call and future filings, in press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risk and uncertainty. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC. With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Mauricio Botero Wolff, Chief Strategy and Financial Officer; Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer; and Ms. Laura Clavijo, Chief Economist. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to Grupo Cibest's Second Quarter Conference Call. Please turn to Slide 2. Lower political uncertainty following Colombia's electoral process has helped reduce sovereign risk premiums. However, fiscal sustainability remains a key challenge and will require a credible adjustment path. The economy continues to expand at a moderate pace, and we estimate GDP will grow 2.7% in the second quarter, supported by resilient private consumption and sustained public spending. Despite the challenging environment, we delivered strong results. Net income reached COP 2.7 trillion, supported by a NIM close to 8%, solid asset quality that kept cost of risk at 1.6% and continued efficiency gains. Together, these factors drove a historic quarterly ROE of 28.7%. Moreover, we are pleased to see how these results reflect the success of our strategy and the consistency of our execution. First, these results highlight the strength of our competitive advantage, which is built on a value proposition rooted in transactional activity, a sustainable source of low-cost funding and valuable data that enhances credit risk management. Second, they demonstrate the flexibility of our commercial and financial model, which enable us to dynamically allocate resources between the loan and investment portfolios and maximize revenue generation across economic and risk cycles. Third, they prove our commitment to operational efficiency. Ultimately, these results reflect our ability to create value throughout the successful Banistmo divestment, PAM's turnaround, Nequi's growing contribution, the strategic use of capital instruments to strengthen our capital structure and the extraordinary dividend proposal recently announced for shareholder approval in August. Last week, Grupo Cibest completed the acquisition of 100% of Avista Colombia, strengthening our capabilities in payroll lending and expanding access to more inclusive tailored financing solutions for Colombians. Avista Colombia strengthens our position in a low-risk lending segment with strong growth and cross-selling potential, complementing our existing offering and expanding our ability to serve this market. By combining Avista's proven technology and business model with Bancolombia's funding advantages, we see a clear path to improve profitability and potentially scale the platform across Central America. I will now hand the call over to Laura Clavijo, our Chief Economist, for an overview of the macroeconomic landscape. Laura?
Thank you, Juan Carlos. If you could please proceed to Slide 4. The Colombian economy likely expanded at a pace of around 2.7% during the first half of the year, showing early signs of a moderation in growth dynamics. Public spending and private consumption continue to support overall growth activity. However, elevated interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures and weak private investment remain significant headwinds. Reflecting on this backdrop, we have revised downward our GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 2.9% to 2.6%. Inflation remains one of Colombia's most present macroeconomic challenges. At the end of the second quarter, inflation surpassed 6.1%, placing it among the highest in Latin America. Underlying price pressures remain persistent, particularly in the services sector, while the risk of a severe El Niño event poses additional upside pressures on energy and food prices as well as on inflation expectations. As a result, the Central Bank raised its policy rate by 75 basis points to 12% at its June meeting. According to the bank's staff projections, inflation is expected to reach 6.9% by year-end and remain above target through 2028, suggesting that further monetary tightening may be required. Accordingly, we continue to expect the policy rate to reach 12.75% by the end of 2026. Alternatively, should the Board fail to secure a majority in favor of additional rate hikes, a higher-for-longer interest rate environment is likely to prevail throughout 2027. From an external perspective, Colombia continues to benefit from several important strengths. Favorable commodity prices, resilient exports and record remittance inflows are supporting both external accounts and domestic demand. Meanwhile, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, gaining more than 15% year-to-date, driven by carry trade flows and strong market optimism. While this appreciation reflects improved investor sentiment, it may also weigh on export competitiveness. In addition, global trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and tighter financial conditions remain key risks that could affect capital flows, financing costs and broader market sentiment. Consequently, the external environment is likely to remain a source of volatility over the coming quarters. Fiscal dynamics also remain a key source of vulnerability. We expect the central government deficit to widen to 6.5% of GDP in 2026 as strong expenditure execution, structural rigidities in public finances and rising financing needs continue to constrain the pace of fiscal adjustments. While authorities are expected to pursue gradual consolidation over the medium term, elevated deficits and rising public debt levels underscore the importance of advancing structural reforms that strengthen fiscal sustainability and reinforce investor confidence. Looking beyond 2026, Colombia's economic outlook under Abelardo de la Espriella's administration is likely to be characterized by a combination of opportunities and structural challenges. The start of a new political cycle could help reduce uncertainty and support a gradual recovery in investment, driven by improved business confidence, infrastructure development, housing activity and opportunities in natural resources and financial services. However, the strength and durability of the recovery will ultimately depend on the successful reduction of inflationary pressures, the normalization of interest rates and the restoration of fiscal credibility. If you could please proceed to Slide 5. Central America's outlook remains broadly resilient despite a more challenging external environment. In El Salvador, growth is expected to moderate to 2.9% in 2026, but economic activity should remain supported by infrastructure investment and construction, partially offsetting weaker remittance inflows and rising inflation pressure. Guatemala continues to benefit from infrastructure projects and institutional reforms that encourage private investments, supporting solid economic performance despite softer remittance growth and higher inflation. Meanwhile, Panama is expected to grow at a pace just under 4%, supported by canal-related activity, logistics, tourism and construction, even as global disruptions, El Niño-related risks and rising unemployment present ongoing challenges. Now please let me turn the presentation to Mauricio, who will present Cibest's quarterly performance.
Thank you, Laura. Please proceed to Slide 7. Our gross loan portfolio was almost flat over the quarter as expected due to the uncertainty created by the electoral process. However, on an annual basis, this represents a 5.7% growth or 9.6% net of FX, which is in line with our annual projections. Commercial loans were stable over the quarter and grew slightly over the year. The mortgage portfolio kept on growing at 1.8% during the quarter and posted a 12% growth over the year. Meanwhile, consumer loans expanded by 0.5% during the quarter and 7.4% over the year, supported by strong growth in vehicle lending, Nequi and credit cards. Please proceed to Slide 8. Bancolombia and Banco Agrícola led credit origination, the latter reflecting the success of our strategy to deepen penetration among retail clients which continues to generate strong and consistent growth. Our U.S. dollar loan portfolio in offshore operations continues to expand at a robust pace. These operations serve as strategic cross-border lending platforms for the group, allowing us to leverage our regional presence and efficiently provide foreign currency funding to clients across different geographies. As of June, BAM's cross-border loan portfolio reached $580 million, which represents a 56% growth over the year, while Banco Agrícola's cross-border portfolio totaled $751 million, growing 42%. These figures are included exclusively for business performance purposes and are not part of their accounting balances. Please proceed to Slide 9. Over the quarter, deposits declined 0.2%, which represents a 1.2% growth net of FX. Year-over-year, deposits increased 7%, which represents a 12% growth net of FX, outpacing loan growth and reflecting our ample liquidity position. Savings accounts largely explain deposit growth, both over the quarter and over the year. Please proceed to Slide 10. Our funding mix continued to demonstrate resilience amid the higher interest rate environment in Colombia. The cost of deposits increased from 4% to 4.4%, mainly reflecting higher remuneration on savings accounts, which accounted for most of the funding growth during the quarter, while remaining significantly less expensive than time deposits. Despite two policy rate hikes totaling 200 basis points during the first half of the year, Bancolombia's stand-alone cost of deposits increased by only 64 basis points over the past two quarters. This funding strategy reflects our share of sight deposits, which has lower sensitivity to the reference rate and represents 57% of our consolidated funding base, reaffirming our ability to attract and retain a stable cost-efficient funding. Please proceed to Slide 11. Net interest income increased 16.5% during the quarter, supported by a strong performance from both lending and investment portfolios. Lending NIM expanded from 7.8% to 8.3%, mainly reflecting higher asset yields in Colombia. Our asset-sensitive balance sheet continued to benefit as loan yields repriced in line with the Central Bank's progressive repo rate increases. Investment NIM delivered a very positive performance, rising from 1.8% to 6%. Our strong liquidity position, supported by robust funding and still moderate loan growth enabled us to capitalize in Colombia's fixed income markets. During the quarter, greater activity from international investors pursuing carry trade strategies supported transaction volumes and related intermediation revenues, contributing to the performance of our investment portfolio. Increased volatility, partly associated with the evolving electoral backdrop, created favorable trading and positioning opportunities in peso-related instruments. Therefore, consolidated NIM expanded by 91 basis points in the quarter from 7% to 7.9%. Banco Agrícola and BAM also reported NIM expansion, supported by higher loan portfolio yields and mark-to-market gains on their investment portfolios, particularly in securities issued by their respective governments. Please proceed to Slide 12. Net fee income continues to deliver solid growth, increasing 9.8% over the quarter and 17.7% over the year. This growth was supported by the result of bancassurance, particularly through our partnership with SURA. On a year-over-year basis, growth was supported by credit and debit card and payments, reflecting broader card penetration and higher transaction volumes. Banking services also contributed positively, primarily through digital banking fees. Fee expenses, on the other hand, decreased during the quarter and during the year, improving from ongoing efficiency initiatives. The fee income ratio stood at 18.3%, mainly reflecting a higher contribution from net interest income due to the NIM expansion I just explained. Please proceed to Slide 13. Now I would like to highlight the continued progress of our digital ecosystem, where scale, connectivity and innovation are increasingly reinforcing each other. Wompi continues to expand its role in the payments ecosystem, reaching new merchants and broadening its value proposition through solutions such as Nequi Negocios and in-person payments, supporting the platform's profitability and long-term growth potential. At the same time, Wenia is gaining momentum, driven by rapid growth in issuers and transaction values. The successful rollout of Wenia Connect and the launch of USDW are strengthening our capabilities in digital assets, cross-border transactions and future tokenization opportunities. Moreover, through its integration with Wompi and Wenia, Nequi is helping extend the reach of the ecosystem across consumers, merchants and digital financial services. Together, these businesses are creating a more connected ecosystem that accelerates innovation, expands customer relationships and unlocks new opportunities for sustainable growth fully aligned with Grupo Cibest's long-term strategy. Please proceed to Slide 14. As previously announced, following the authorization granted by the Financial Superintendency of Colombia, Nequi is expected to begin operating as an independent financial entity within Grupo Cibest on September 1, 2026. This milestone marks the completion of the transfer of the assets, liabilities and contracts associated with the products and services currently offered under the Nequi brand. Importantly, both Nequi and Bancolombia will continue to operate under Grupo Cibest and the customer experience will remain unchanged. There will be no changes in how they access or use Nequi's products and services and the experience within the app as well as customer service channels will remain the same. Nequi continued to strengthen its ecosystem monetization during the second quarter, supported by sustained growth in users, transactionality, deposits and lending. The monetized user base increased to 18 million, while the activity ratio reached 81.6%. Together, these metrics demonstrate deeper customer engagement, broader adoption and value-added products and services and Nequi's growing ability to convert its extensive user base into sustainable revenue opportunities. Deposits closed at COP 7.6 trillion, increasing 12% in the last quarter, recovering from the seasonal decline observed at the beginning of the year. This performance reinforces Nequi's position as the leading digital savings and transactional platform while strengthening its funding base to support growth. Nequi's loan portfolio reached COP 2.2 trillion, growing 14% quarter-over-quarter, driven by low-ticket loans originated through its scalable digital model. Asset quality remained in line with expectations, supported by disciplined underwriting and collection capabilities. Cost of risk reflects Nequi's strategy to expand credit access in underserved segments while maintaining a sound risk management framework. Please proceed to Slide 15. Total income reached COP 492 billion, increasing 16% quarter-over-quarter, while financial income grew 19%, supported by loan portfolio expansion and higher investment income. Net fee income increased 10% on stronger transactionality and broader adoption of value-added services. Please proceed to Slide 16. Net provision expense amounted to COP 1 trillion in the second quarter, representing a 17% quarterly decline, reflecting the overall good performance of the loan portfolio across our geographies. The reduction was mainly driven by recoveries from specific clients. As a result, the quarterly annualized cost of risk declined to 1.6%—these positive effects more than offset higher provisioning in consumer loans as well as in the SME and commercial segments, where deterioration remained concentrated among specific clients rather than reflecting a broader decline in credit quality. When broken down by entity, Bancolombia led the quarterly reduction supported by a stable economic environment and significant recoveries from specific clients. BAM reported broadly stable provision expenses as newer loan vintages continue to improve the portfolio mix. By contrast, Banco Agrícola recorded higher provisioning consistent with the loan growth in segments with greater risk appetite and higher risk-adjusted returns. Please proceed to Slide 17. In line with the healthy performance observed in recent quarters, overall asset quality remained well contained. From a new past-due loan formation standpoint, the volume of loans becoming delinquent declined during the quarter. Despite some pressure in consumer loans, mainly credit cards and personal loans as well as some deterioration in mortgages, the overall 30-day and 90-day NPL ratios remained broadly stable, while commercial loan ratios improved slightly. Consistent with this performance, the stage distribution remained relatively stable during the quarter. Stage 2 loans increased modestly, mainly reflecting commercial clients in specific economic sectors under closer monitoring due to foreign exchange exposure and potential effects from El Niño. Meanwhile, Stage 3 loans declined slightly, explained by the release of clients that were previously classified as in default. Please proceed to Slide 18. Operating expenses declined 10% over the quarter, mainly reflecting the COP 374 billion wealth tax recognized in the previous quarter under Colombia's Second Economic Emergency decree. On a year-over-year basis, operating expenses increased by only 1.9%, supported in part by the appreciation of the Colombian peso, well-contained labor expenses, the absence of nonrecurring costs associated with the expansion of Grupo Cibest, continued cloud migration efficiencies and lower contact center operating costs. In Colombia, our efficiency agenda remains focused on leveraging artificial intelligence in collections and contact center channels, automating operational workflows among others. By entity, BAM continued to show the most significant improvement supported by its profitability and cost optimization strategy with its efficiency ratio declining from 44.5% to 42.2% in the quarter. Banco Agrícola also improved from 47.9% to 47%. Overall, the consolidated cost-to-income ratio reached 43% in the quarter. Please turn to Slide 19. Grupo Cibest's shareholders' equity grew 4.8% over the quarter, mainly driven by net income generation. On the other hand, Bancolombia's stand-alone common equity Tier 1 ratio stood at 12.1% and total solvency ratio reached 13.9% as of June, an optimal level to support growth while enhancing profitability. At this point, I would like to highlight the broad set of initiatives we're now deploying to manage capital more efficiently across the group, taking advantage of our new corporate structure under the holding company. First, we continue executing the share buyback program approved in April, which remains effective for three years. We have already repurchased more than 7 million shares amounting to COP 967 billion during the last 12 months. Second, we are pursuing corporate development and intra-group capital transactions such as capital contributions to Nequi, AT1 instruments and subordinated debt designed to optimize capital allocation and enhance return for the holding company. Third, we have designed a disciplined capital and liquidity management framework that allows Grupo Cibest to optimize capital distributions to shareholders while preserving healthy double leverage ratios to support future growth. Notably, we will propose a COP 1.2 trillion extraordinary dividend with the proceeds from the Banistmo sale, in addition to our annual dividend distributions, demonstrating our continued focus on capital efficiency and long-term value creation for shareholders. Please turn to Slide 20. Net income reached COP 2.7 trillion during the quarter, increasing 87% quarter-over-quarter. As a result, annualized ROE stood at 29% with Bancolombia posting a stand-alone ROE of 36%. Our Central American operations continue to generate strong returns in 2026, supported by the strategic advantages of Grupo Cibest's cross-border platform. Access to efficient funding through our international banking operations supports profitable loan growth and enhances reported profitability with both entities, delivering ROEs of 20% in the second quarter. We are particularly encouraged by BAM's sustained momentum and improved performance during the year, supported by improved asset quality and origination standards, higher margins and a record low cost-to-income ratio of 43%, reinforcing its contribution to Grupo Cibest's overall profitability and efficiency. With this, I will now hand the presentation back to Juan Carlos. Juan?
Thank you, Mauricio. Please turn to Slide 21. Grupo Cibest continues advancing its business-with-purpose strategy with cumulative disbursements reaching COP 364 trillion since 2020, equivalent to 58% of the group's adjusted 2030 target of COP 629 trillion. BAM's 100th anniversary was another important milestone, celebrating a century of contribution to Guatemala's economic development and underscoring its institutional legacy, strong governance and long-term value creation within Grupo Cibest. On the social front, Bancolombia was recognized by Merco Talento 2026 as Colombia's best company to work for and the top employer in the financial sector. Its talent and culture team was also ranked first in the country for the third consecutive year, reflecting our commitment to professional development, employee well-being, diversity and inclusion. Please turn to Slide 23. Reflecting the group's strong results, we have updated selected 2026 guidance metrics. Loan growth guidance remains unchanged at 7% to 8%, while NIM guidance has been raised to 7.4% to 7.6%, supported by strong margin performance. We maintain our cost of risk guidance at 1.6% to 1.8% as credit quality continues to perform in line with expectations. For efficiency, we now expect the ratio to be around 48%, reflecting positive operating leverage as revenue growth continues to outpace expenses. As a result, we are raising our ROE guidance to 21% to 22%. Please now turn to Slide 24. In closing, one year after our transformation into Grupo Cibest, our results reflect the strength of our strategy and business model. Over the past year, our ATR price increased by more than 90%, demonstrating the market's recognition of the value we have created, while ROE reached 21.5% in the first half of 2026. We remain fully committed to unlocking additional value for our shareholders. The proposed extraordinary dividend is another step in that direction, enhancing shareholder return while preserving disciplined capital management. Looking ahead, a more favorable macroeconomic outlook and improved security conditions could support a recovery in investment and create better conditions for economic growth. This concludes today's presentation. We will now be happy to take your questions.
分析師問答
Operator instructions were provided. Our first question comes from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.
Congrats for another good quarter, all the trajectory of the bank, very impressive 29% ROEs. We know there were some kind of one-time items, but even excluding a pretty strong quarter. So congrats. I have a question regarding your guidance for the year. And I would like to understand a little bit how you see the second half of the year versus the first half. The first half was very strong this quarter. You had the wealth tax that was a negative here as well. Historically, maybe second half is seasonally better than the first half. So just asking, do you think the second half can be as strong as the first half or stronger? What is your overall view here? And how does this compare to your guidance—because in our exercise, if you assume the 22% ROE that you had at the top of the guidance, this implies a slowdown in the second half, but I don't know if this is the case. And then I have a second question regarding asset quality. If you can comment on the said earthquake, if you see any impact for asset quality? And also the stronger currency, how do you see this hurting exporters in Colombia? And how does this compare to your guidance of cost of risk?
Thank you, Yuri. Thank you for your words. Regarding the second half of the year, as you said, usually the second half of the year is better than the first half. There is more demand. Companies are prepared for the end-of-year season. So usually, it's a better period. And we expect that this year to be the case. We need to take into account that there are factors that could have some impact on the second half results. But overall, we expect a strong second half in line with what happened in the first half, meaning that we even expect higher credit demand. The big question is how credit risk is going to behave and that is related to your second question. There are some factors, including El Niño that in Colombia creates an effect of no rain, and that could have an effect on inflation. And the other is yesterday's earthquake that also could have an impact. So we think it's going to be a strong second half and our guidance—we maintain our guidance for the full year ROE at 22% and a positive NIM outlook. So overall, we think that guidance could have some risks, but in general, it will be in line with the first semester. Mauricio, do you want to complement something?
Yuri, if you look at the first half ROE, we are at 21.5%, which is right in the middle of the range of the guidance for the whole year. So yes, there could be some downside risks around asset quality, but there are also some upside risks—so projecting the guidance between 21% and 22% should be in line with our projections.
And just to complement regarding the strong peso, that also could have some effect on some exposures that could affect the cost of risk. So those are the elements that we are taking into account to support our guidance for the full year.
No. Super clear, Juan Carlos. So basically, better margins, maybe better volumes, but the main risk is asset quality/cost of risk. And when we put all those things together, you're comfortable with the 21%–22% ROE guidance.
Our next question comes from the line of Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.
My first question is also in terms of the NIM trends. We are seeing we can have interest rates higher for longer and maybe that this could last for the first half of next year. Do you see potentially looking to some alternatives to reduce the sensitivity to interest rates? I don't know if you will be evaluating derivatives or changing the loan mix. I believe today, for every 100 basis points increase in the average repo rate, it improves NIMs by around 20 basis points. So how much could this sensitivity be reduced over the next months? Then my second question is on your sustainable ROE. As you pointed out, ROE could be between 21% and 22% and likely that to translate into 2027. But what should we think about the sustainable ROE when you have a normalization in interest rates? And my last question is on Nequi. We noted asset quality deterioration in terms of NPLs and cost of risk on a sequential basis. We have the NPL at 3.7% and cost of risk at 14.6%. So what would be the maximum levels that both ratios should be reaching? And at what level of both ratios would you be more conservative in your loan growth appetite?
Thank you, Ernesto. Let me start with your second question on sustainable ROE and also address your third about Nequi, and I will ask Mauricio to comment on the NIM. I will also ask Laura, our Chief Economist, to give her view on interest rates and inflation to provide background for your question. Regarding sustainable ROE, we think that at the level of 21%–22% we can consider that a sustainable ROE. We know that interest rates are likely to go down probably by the second half of next year, and Laura will elaborate on that in a moment. But even with that, we think with the loan volume that we are building and the developments of our strategy, we are able to deliver an ROE above 20% over the long term. We firmly believe we can deliver an ROE above 20% in the long term. Regarding Nequi, as you know, Nequi is building its loan book with very healthy growth. They target a segment that is not fully banked. We are in the process of learning how that segment behaves, but we are very confident that at the levels we are at, Nequi's loan book is profitable. We don't expect additional deterioration. You may see some changes, but at these levels, we feel comfortable. We are closely following all the vintages in Nequi and how the loan book is behaving. We now have enough information to be confident that at these levels, it's profitable and we can maintain those levels without additional deterioration. Mauricio, about the NIM, and Laura about interest rates and inflation.
Ernesto, in fact, as you mentioned, the lending NIM is going to have a positive impact because of the repricing of the assets. We're seeing that, and we believe that will continue, as Juan Carlos mentioned, because of the repo rate until at least the first half of next year. So we're going to have a benefit from that in 2026, the whole year. And we believe in 2027 it could be even better because at the beginning of the year interest rates will be around 12% to 12.75%. Thinking about derivatives, yes, it's a tool we have, but not yet. We were implementing some hedge accounting measures when interest rates were coming down. Now that they are going up, we don't see a need to implement derivatives, but that is a tool we have ready to use once we believe we're reaching the inflection point. The sensitivity you mentioned—previously for every 100 basis points in interest rates we had a roughly 20 basis points NIM effect. That has moved to around 25 basis points, largely because of the divestment of Banistmo: Grupo now depends more on Bancolombia's results, which is the entity that is more asset sensitive.
Thank you. Inflation continues to be one of the main challenges moving forward. Even though yesterday's July print showed a slightly receding headline inflation, we still believe pressures on inflation will persist. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to be quite aggressive and could impact food prices, which helped the July inflation reading. In this sense, we believe the Central Bank still has space to continue a restrictive monetary policy, potentially up to the 12.35% level. But if the Board does not find common ground on further hikes, especially given the new government and the fiscal adjustment that is set to be in place, we believe a 'higher-for-longer' scenario is plausible around the 12% level and 2027 could be a year of prolonged high rates, without necessarily reaching a peak of 12.75%. Inflation is still an ongoing challenge despite yesterday's more receded reading.
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank.
Congrats on the results. Two questions here. One, now that we have your whole team there, I just wanted to get your views on the incoming administration. I know the sector as a whole was very targeted in terms of taxes. I just wanted to cross-check with you what are your impressions, your initial discussions regarding what could happen, not only as they present the reform in some days now, but going forward. I think it could be very determinant for the sector. And then a second question on capital allocation. Naturally, with the levels of ROE, maybe you get more optionalities. I just wanted to check with you what your priorities are—if it's a bit more dividends, organic growth, buybacks. I just wanted to check with you.
Thank you, Brian. The administration that started a few days ago creates a positive environment in general. Let me explain why: the Minister of Finance has given a message that they are going to work on the fiscal deficit as a main priority. One of the main issues in the Colombian economy is the fiscal deficit. The message is that they will work not just on taxes, but on government expenses. They have talked about being more efficient on tax collection and creating a more business-friendly environment, which are very important signals. It's not an easy task, but I think the new government, particularly the Minister of Finance and the team designated to help him, are capable and experienced. That creates a positive view of what is coming. There are challenges around what Laura mentioned about inflation and how interest rates will behave. But in general, I think it's a positive view that the measures to improve fiscal flexibility will help. That will probably take a year, but it is positive. We also believe private investment, local and international, will come to Colombia and that will create positive economic activity in the future. So, in general, it's positive, while recognizing challenges in the first year of the government. Regarding capital allocation, I'll pass that question to Mauricio.
Brian, in terms of capital allocation, we'll use all the tools we have as they make sense. Let me explain how. Extraordinary dividends respond to a specific moment or specific events. Last year it was because of the creation of Cibest. This year it is because of the divestment of Banistmo. So when we have a significant corporate event, we will consider extraordinary dividends. Ordinary dividends—our plan is to grow them in real terms, a couple of points above inflation. The buyback program will be executed only according to market conditions; we are not forced to execute the whole amount approved by the shareholders' assembly, only if it makes sense. Corporate development initiatives are linked to strategy—capabilities that make sense strategically and financially will be considered. We are also investing a lot in internal initiatives: if you look at the instruments we have executed internally in Grupo Cibest, we have deployed more than COP 5 trillion in capital in the past 12 to 15 months.
Super clear. Just if I may, would it be fair to say that the risk of higher taxes or specific taxes targeting the financial system could be a bit lower than three to six months ago? Is that fair?
It's difficult to tell, Brian. We think the general message of this incoming government is not additional taxes. The recent earthquake creates a situation that could generate additional taxes to address the emergency. But putting that aside, I think it's fair to say the risk is lower. Still, it's better to wait and see how policies unfold.
Our next question comes from the line of Carlos Gomez with HSBC.
We always say congratulations for the results, but this really was quite something. So congratulations on the results and the long-term strategy and how you have restructured the group and where Bancolombia is today relative to where it was 12 years ago. Looking forward, first, we have talked about the incoming government. We know that one important issue that happened in the last four years was the change in the usury rate, the interest rate cap. What do you think the chances are that that could be reviewed by the new government? We understand it's early days, but do you have any insight on whether this is something that is at all in their horizon or not? Second, regarding the geographical structure of the group, you are down to three countries and Colombia is now 80% of the total. Where do you see the group five years from now? Do you see it operating in more geographies, perhaps other countries that could be of interest? Or do you see it operating in the same or perhaps fewer but diversifying into other products?
Thank you, Carlos. Regarding the interest rate cap, which has been in Colombia for many years, it's a continuous conversation on the impact of the cap rate. We are convinced that the measure generates exclusion of credit alternatives for many people. With the banking association, we promote a conversation around what we need to do as a country to include more people in formal credit. It's a difficult discussion. What happened during the last four years is that the cap rate went down on what we view as more artificial calculations, not in line with other rates in the economy. It's an active conversation and it's possible that it will evolve, but it will take time. We will continue promoting measures that create more credit opportunities. Regarding your second question, in five years we see opportunities in Latin America—not necessarily through buying an established institution but through creating entities and capabilities that allow us to serve markets in other geographies. We are actively looking for opportunities, but we will be disciplined: we won't jump into markets unless we can deploy our knowledge and capabilities and it contributes to Grupo Cibest. We'll likely deploy capabilities created with Nequi, Wenia, Wompi and other advanced financial services.
Our next question comes from the line of Juliana Ohara with Goldman Sachs.
Congratulations on the results again. Could you describe more about your recent acquisition of Avista? I know it's focused on payroll lending, but I want to understand more of the strategic rationale behind the acquisition and how you see this scaling and contributing to Cibest over time? And second, could you also share a bit more what drove equity income and fees? I know they were super strong, but I wanted to understand more as well if they should be sustainable through the rest of the year.
Thank you, Juliana. Avista is an acquisition that complements our offering in payroll lending. It brings expertise, technology and a team that will help us grow in that line. We are confident this acquisition complements our offering and will allow us to grow in a segment that has a lower cost of risk and important opportunities. Regarding equity income and NIM from investments: there is an open window today for carry trade activity with international investors participating in the local market. We have been able to use our low-cost funding and liquidity, given loan demand was less dynamic due to elections, to serve international investors by selling derivatives on Colombian sovereign debt while also buying bonds. We are not increasing our interest rate exposure and we are engaging in short-term investments, mainly 30-day investments with rollovers, capturing carry trade opportunities alongside international investors. That has supported the investment portfolio performance and higher investment NIM. That window should reduce over time, but it is open as of today and we are taking advantage of it. Regarding fees, they are performing well, particularly bancassurance through our agreement with SURA Seguros. We believe those fee streams are sustainable and should continue to perform strongly.
Our next question comes from the line of Andres Soto with Santander.
Good morning, everybody, and thank you again for very strong results. I have a few questions. The first is related to macro in the context of the change of government. When I see your GDP estimates for 2027, you are expecting 2.6%, in line with the performance of 2026, but I would imagine very different drivers as Colombia's economy has been supported by consumption, which probably is going to suffer if the government decides to stop spending while investment could recover. Can you help us understand how fast this transition can occur? What are your expectations for investment recovery versus consumption slowdown, given new government policies? Still on macro, but more related to short-term events, do you have expectations of what could be the implications of the earthquake in Colombia in terms of short-term macro performance and specifically regarding your portfolio, what is Cibest's exposure to the areas affected by this calamity? Finally, on capital, can you please remind us after your capital optimization initiatives for this year where you see your double leverage ratio? And what would be the level you consider possible to achieve?
Thank you for your question. We revised our GDP forecast for 2026 from 2.9% to 2.6%. That is in line with current estimates of potential growth for Colombia, and we are currently around that level for 2027 as well. Nonetheless, many policy pushes could come in terms of investment dynamics for key sectors such as infrastructure, construction, housing and energy. Those are contingent on the policies implemented and their likelihood. We see potential support favoring growth more in the second half of 2027 because these are longer-term investments. On the flip side, consumption has driven growth dynamics and we are seeing some moderation in consumption in our transactional data, but it remains relatively strong, supported by remittances and other household revenue. So private consumption is still a driver sustaining the 2.6% growth. Public spending accelerated significantly into the second quarter. Even though the new government is signaling budget cuts and some freezing of public spending, there are rigidities in implementing fiscal adjustment. For 2027, we may see a partial offset between reduced public spending and improved private investment; this could help even out opposing forces. To conclude, 2.6% represents moderate growth, but we do see headwinds for 2027 and we will revisit the forecast in September.
In terms of asset quality and exposure to earthquake-affected areas, we don't have exact figures yet, but we view downside risk to asset quality as limited at this stage. The main topics to monitor for asset quality in the second half and into 2027 are the earthquake, the El Niño effect and the exchange rate impact on exporters. In terms of capital, we are very comfortable with double leverage at 94% today. After distributing the extraordinary dividend and implementing the capital instruments we've disclosed, we expect to close the year at around 105% double leverage. Our appetite for double leverage is up to 120%, so at 105% we remain in a very comfortable position. As an individual entity, Bancolombia is expected to finish the year with a total solvency ratio of about 15.3%, well above our internal appetite.
Thank you, Mauricio. I'm not sure if it was just me, but we lost you for a bit. Can you just repeat the number for double leverage after the corporate transactions that you are planning in the second half of the year?
I'm sorry. We had an interruption in the call. To repeat: in terms of capital, we are very comfortable at 94% double leverage today. We expect to close the year at about 105% after the extraordinary dividends and capital instruments. Our appetite is 120%. Bancolombia as an individual operation is expected to close the year with a solvency ratio of 15.3%, well above our appetite.
Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Vaz with Banco Safra.
I guess most of the questions have been answered. I wanted to touch base on your 2027 appetite for loan growth. You mentioned mixed trends—fiscal scenarios and sticky inflation. If we think about next year, is this environment enough for you to grow at high single digits again on the commercial side? Do you expect commercial to continue losing participation in total loans? And a word on consumer and mortgages: consumer has been growing at low teens excluding FX impact and mortgages have shown very strong momentum. Can you give guidance on appetite for next year for these three lines?
Daniel, 2027 loan growth should be in the upper part of our 2026 guidance range of 7% to 8%. We don't expect double-digit consolidated loan growth for 2027. The breakdown could be double digits for mortgages and maybe double digits for consumer, but commercial should be around 8%. We don't see more growth than that in commercial, which is in line with nominal GDP. Interest rates remain high and large corporate investment projects will take time to materialize. We may see more of that in the second half of 2027 rather than at the beginning. So overall, loan growth around 8%, maybe slightly more, but not double-digit for total loans until interest rates come down.
Our final question this morning comes from the line of Santiago Villanueva with Davivienda Corredores.
Congratulations on the results. I have three questions. First, how are you seeing Bancolombia relative to the rest of the Colombian banking market? Do you believe that the current ROE levels would allow you to put pressure on prices across the rest of the market to gain market share? Or are you preparing to protect your current NIM levels? Second, it's interesting to see how the asset mix changed during the quarter. The portfolio grew 6% year-over-year, investments grew 40% and increased from 9% as a percentage of total assets in December to 13% now. Given the performance of investments during this quarter, the asset allocation was quite sound. Is this asset mix sustainable? Or should we expect a decline in the proportion of investments relative to total assets? Third, could you please break down the NIM guidance between loan NIM and investment NIM?
Thank you, Santiago. We have been building competitive advantages for a long period, and our focus is delivering ROE to our shareholders. We will continue with that strategy. We have improved our results delivery based on competitive advantages and will continue to do so. There's no different objective than continuing to develop that strategy and delivering strong returns to our shareholders.
In terms of the asset breakdown, yes, we had a very dynamic quarter for the investment portfolio, but that reflects two things. One is the window opportunity I mentioned earlier about carry trade activity and international investors coming into the market, and we took advantage of that. The other is the relatively muted credit demand because of electoral uncertainty. Once credit demand picks up, you may see a recomposition of assets moving some money from investments back into the loan book. In terms of the NIM guidance breakdown for the year: lending NIM should be around 8% and investment NIM should be around 3.5%, both numbers for the full year.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Mora for final comments.
Thank you, everybody, for joining this second quarter Grupo Cibest results. We are very happy with the performance of Grupo Cibest's companies. We believe we have created a strategy that can deliver mid- and long-term results. BAM is performing much better, and we will continue improving that performance. Bancolombia is doing very well. Nequi will be separated from Bancolombia and will act as a separate entity under Grupo Cibest and will also allow the company to deliver its strategy. We are very positive about what is coming for the rest of the year and for 2027. Thank you for joining this call, and we look forward to seeing you on our third quarter results conference call. Have a good day, everybody.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.