CEPU 全部逐字稿

CENTRAL PUERTO S.A.(CEPU)Q2 2026 法說會逐字稿

22 段

管理層發言

OperatorOperator

Good morning. Ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Central Puerto Second Quarter of 2026 Earnings Conference Call. A slide presentation accompanies today's webcast and will also be available on the Investors section of the company's website at www.centralpuerto.com/en/investors. All participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation. After that, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. If you do not have a copy of the press release, please refer to the Investor Relations support section on the company's corporate website at www.centralpuerto.com. In addition, a replay of today's call will be available in upcoming days by accessing the link at the same section of the Central Puerto website. Our host today will be Mr. Fernando Bonnet, Central Puerto's CEO; Mr. Enrique Terraneo, the company's CFO; Mrs. María Laura Feller, Head of Investor Relations; and Mr. Alejandro Díaz López, Head of Corporate Finance. María Laura, please go ahead.

María Laura FellerHead of Investor Relations

Thank you very much. Good morning and welcome everyone. We are joining you today from Buenos Aires with our management team to walk you through the results of the second quarter of 2026 and afterward, we will take your questions. Before we start, a couple of quick notes. Both covered on slide 2. First, today's presentation includes forward-looking statements and non-IFRS measures, including adjusted EBITDA, so please keep our full disclaimer in mind as we go through the numbers. Also, to remind the audience, since January 1 our functional currency is the US dollar rather than the Argentine peso. We have also refined how we convert historical peso figures into dollars; you'll find the full detail in note 2.2 to our financial statements. All figures are in US dollars unless otherwise stated. Let's turn to Slide 3 for the highlights of the quarter. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA came in at $145 million; that is up 20.1% versus the $120.7 million we posted in the first quarter, and up 136.2% versus the $61.4 million posted in the second quarter of 2025. Revenues totaled $453.3 million, up 82.3% quarter-on-quarter from $248.6 million and up 165.8% year-on-year from $170.5 million. This figure includes $176.4 million of spot CVP related to self-procured fuel. Total generation reached 5.25 thousand gigawatt hours, representing approximately 15% of total generation on Argentina's grid. This was a 3.1% decrease from the first quarter's 5.42 thousand gigawatt hours, but a 20.1% increase versus the 4.37 thousand gigawatt hours generated in the second quarter of last year. On the investment side, capital expenditures for the first half of 2026 totaled $421.9 million. This included $245 million for the Piedra del Águila concession, $50 million for the acquisition of the oil and gas blocks, $106 million for our battery storage projects, and $20.9 million in maintenance and other capital expenditures. Net financial leverage stood at 1.2x adjusted EBITDA, with net financial debt of $493.4 million and last 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $403.8 million. FONINVEM collections from CAMMESA were $16 million in the quarter and outstanding credit was $104.8 million. On the financing front, in April we issued our Class D notes for $130.1 million at a 6% rate. In July, after quarter end, we issued our Class E notes for $94.3 million at a 5.5% rate. We also continued strengthening our commercial position. Our average market share in the Resolution 400 Term Market, or MAT, reached more than 35% in the second quarter. We now serve more than 120 large industrial customers plus 16 distribution and subdistribution companies. Altogether, contracted sales combining PPAs, MAT, and MATeR represented 55% of our total sales volumes and 48% of our total revenues, including hydro sales under the terms of the concession. On our growth projects, our battery storage system projects are on schedule. Construction is 69% complete at Nuevo Puerto and 54% complete at Central Costanera, with major equipment delivered or in transit and installation progressing on schedule. We expect the projects to be energized between October and November, with commercial operation in the fourth quarter of this year. Once operational, we expect these projects to contribute between $25 million and $27 million to adjusted EBITDA in 2027. In April, we closed the acquisition of the oil and gas blocks. For now, we are maintaining technical due diligence prior to the final steps. Let's move to slide 4 for more detail on generation and our commercial development. In the second quarter, total energy offered into the Argentine grid was 36.7 thousand gigawatt hours, made up of 35 thousand gigawatt hours of local generation plus approximately 1.77 thousand gigawatt hours of imports. Central Puerto held more than 35% of the Resolution 400 term market share in the second quarter. Looking at the monthly trend, our share increased significantly through the quarter, reaching 35% in June, reflecting the continued progress of our commercial contracting efforts. Turning to slide 5, let's look at revenues in more detail. Revenues were $453.3 million, up 82.3% quarter-on-quarter and 165.8% year-on-year. Two things drove that growth. First, contracted sales increased primarily due to a full quarter of revenues from the Brigadier López plant under its power purchase agreement, higher contracted energy and capacity sales in the term market from Central Puerto, Central Costanera, Piedra del Águila, and Luján de Cuyo, and the reclassification of Piedra del Águila's hydro sales as contracted sales beginning in 2026, reflecting the pricing mechanism established under Article 9 of the concession terms. Second, spot sales increased due to higher capacity revenues resulting from seasonal capacity remuneration parameters applicable during the winter months, as well as the fuel cost component that is reflected in revenues when we self-procure fuel for spot generation. In the second quarter, this included approximately $174 million of natural gas, LNG, and liquid fuels purchased directly. When CAMMESA supplies the fuel under the Plan Gas.Ar program, that cost is managed by CAMMESA and therefore is not recognized as revenue by the company. Now to slide 6 for the adjusted EBITDA of the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $145 million, up 20.1% quarter-on-quarter and 136.2% year-on-year. The improvement was mainly driven by the margin captured on self-procured liquid fuels and seasonal spot prices, together with new contracted thermal energy in the MAT. Let's move to slide 7, cogeneration and availability. Total generation was 5.25 thousand gigawatt hours this quarter. Compared to the first quarter, a few things moved in different directions. Generation from our legacy steam turbines was down 17%, while Piedra del Águila more than doubled its output, up 112.9%, reflecting stronger hydrology. Renewable generation was down 17.0% quarter-on-quarter and the Luján de Cuyo gas turbine unit was still out of service following the generator failure that occurred in the first quarter of last year. Our thermal fleet remained reliable. Total thermal availability of combined cycles was 87.0% and steam production totaled 782 thousand tons, up 45.4% quarter-on-quarter but down 16.0% year-on-year. Central Puerto represented approximately 15% of total generation on Argentina's grid, or 15.9% including our FONINVEM plants at our working interest. Turning to slide 8, total capital expenditures for the first half of the year were $421.9 million. This includes $245 million for the Piedra del Águila concession, $50 million for the oil and gas block acquisition, $106 million for our battery storage projects, and $20.9 million for maintenance and other items. The battery energy storage system projects have already executed 81% of the project's total capital budget. Construction is 69% complete at Nuevo Puerto and 54% at Central Costanera. Major equipment has either been delivered or is in transit, and installation is progressing on schedule. We expect commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2026. Once running, we expect these projects to add between $25 million and $27 million in EBITDA in 2027. Now to slide 9 on our balance sheet and financial flexibility. As of June 30, our total outstanding financial debt was $671.9 million. Against cash, cash equivalents, and financial current assets of $178.4 million, that leaves us with net debt of $493.4 million. Measured against our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA of $403.8 million, our net leverage ratio was 1.2 times, a healthy level that gives us financial flexibility. On our debt maturity profile, we hold $178.4 million in cash and financial current assets today, and our maturities are well spread out over time, with $176.4 million coming due later this year, followed by moderate amounts in 2027 and 2028 and larger maturities in 2029 and 2030. On financing activity, in April we issued our Class D notes for $130.1 million at a 6.0% rate with a 48-month bullet maturity. In July, after the quarter closed, we issued our Class E notes for $94.3 million at 5.5% with a 36-month bullet maturity, mainly to fund working capital and fuel procurement needs. Thank you very much for your time and for your continued confidence in Central Puerto. Operator, please open the line for questions.

分析師問答

OperatorOperator

Thank you very much for the presentation. We will now begin the Q&A session for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press the reaction button and then click on raise hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on put hand down. Our first question comes from Matías Cattaruzzi with Adcap. Your microphone is open.

Matías CattaruzziAnalyst

Hi, team. Congratulations on the quarter. I have a question on the material contribution from the self-procurement of fuels in the second quarter. How will we see this in the future? In the third quarter, will we see something similar in revenues or does it depend on fuel procurement in each quarter? And for the fourth quarter, will it be lower? What do analysts need to keep in mind to project this in our models?

Fernando BonnetCEO

Okay. Thank you, Matías, for your question and your interest in Central Puerto. Regarding fuel consumption and self-procurement, we saw during July similar levels to what we saw in June. For August, it is very early to have a final view. If this cold winter continues, perhaps we will not see the same levels as in June and July, but perhaps a little bit less. We expect some self-procurement of natural gas and a small portion of liquid fuels. I do not see a lot of liquid fuels coming forward. So for the third quarter, you can expect similar levels of self-consumption to July and June, but perhaps a bit less — roughly half would be a reasonable estimate for LNG compared to the second quarter, and not the same for liquids. For the fourth quarter, until we can start buying our own local natural gas — which is not the case today because the Plan Gas.Ar is still in place — it is not easy for producers to break their contracts with CAMMESA and start signing new contracts with us. Because of that, we see a reduction in self-procurement of fuel in the fourth quarter of this year. We are starting conversations with different providers so we can purchase local gas, but not for all of our consumption. We expect some providers and oil companies to exit the Plan Gas.Ar at the end of the year and more heavily during next year. To wrap up, you will see less self-procured fuel consumption during the last quarter of this year.

Matías CattaruzziAnalyst

And then a follow-up on self-procurement of fuels. Is there any way that we can see how it impacts EBITDA compared to previous quarters? We have seen it disaggregated in revenues, but how is it visible in the cost part? The self-procurement is just for us to measure the impact on EBITDA?

Fernando BonnetCEO

You can show it in our costs because that is open in our accounting. So you can see how cost of sales increases during winter compared to summer. But you need to consider both effects to estimate future EBITDA. During winter, it is not only the self-procurement I mentioned, but also the marginal income that we receive from the regulation when our equipment is more efficient than the last unit entering the market. You need both effects combined. In summer there is not significant use of expensive fuels like diesel oil or LNG, so the margin of the entire system is reduced, not only for those plants that do not acquire their own fuel.

Matías CattaruzziAnalyst

Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Martín Arancet with Balanz Capital. Your microphone is open.

Martín ArancetAnalyst

Hi. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have only two questions. I would like to run them one by one if that is okay. First, regarding growth opportunities, where do you see growth opportunities in the future? You renewed the concession of Piedra del Águila, now you have the battery project, but do you see growth opportunities after that? Also, we heard the government could be working on a new auction for thermal and probably renewables plus batteries before year-end. Do you have more information on that? And could it be something where you could add capacity to some of your thermal assets?

Fernando BonnetCEO

Okay. Thank you, Martín, for your question and interest. Regarding growth opportunities, we are seeing different opportunities from various processes. One is that the government is analyzing a new capacity scheme. It may not be a one-off auction like in the past; I think they are considering a regular scheme, perhaps quarterly or biannual, in which generators could present projects to increase system capacity. It would be a capacity scheme, not energy. They are making the final adjustments to that scheme, and we think it could be online during this quarter or the next one. We have development-ready projects from the 2023 thermal capacity process. We were awarded two projects there; these projects are fully developed and we intend to present one or both in the new scheme. We are also developing new capacity projects in different locations, some in Buenos Aires and some in other regions. We are also pursuing battery opportunities. We presented several projects in the AlmA GBA scheme that were close to being awarded, so we want to keep those projects alive and present them in future processes. The government may introduce a regular scheme for batteries similar to what they are considering for thermal capacity, and we will be ready to participate. We also see opportunities in the potential sale of government assets, such as power plants currently under state control. Additionally, we are developing a transmission line project in the north with YPF to provide electricity to lithium producers. With current lithium prices and demand, that project is gaining traction and could create opportunities to build renewable generation to serve mining customers. We are also working on commercial proposals for mining companies and data centers, though these are early stage. Overall, we see many opportunities to grow.

Martín ArancetAnalyst

Very clear. Thanks. Just a small follow-up: I guess it is still too early to have a timeline regarding when we could see closure of deals or something similar for the new projects and for mining companies, right?

Fernando BonnetCEO

Yes, it is early stage because these are big companies and big projects. They need to complete feasibility studies first before signing contracts. I think we could see the first major contracts next year. For the transmission line, we could see something earlier, perhaps at the end of this year, but feasibility and financing need to be finalized before contracts are signed.

Martín ArancetAnalyst

Okay. Very clear. Thanks. My second question: you were commercially successful signing new PPAs for thermal assets after the regulatory change, and you were able to contract the 20% allowed with industrial consumers. You are trying to get to more contracts with distribution companies. How is that moving forward? Has there been any progress? Also, given the spike in spot prices this winter, do you think it is more profitable to sign a new PPA or to take exposure to the spot market?

Fernando BonnetCEO

Thank you. We moved very fast to capture the 20% allowed contracted sales. In the past, we were one of the largest contractors in Argentina when contracting was more liberal, so we kept the team and contacts and enlarged the team when the regulation changed. We are confident in our ability to secure strong contracts. Regarding distribution companies, our goal is to secure the best counterparties, not to sign with every distribution company. After 20 years of regulation, distribution companies and cooperatives are in different situations across provinces. We want to focus on the best opportunities rather than reach 100% contracting with distribution companies. While winter spot prices are higher and can be attractive, the rest of the year prices tend to be much lower. The optimal approach is a balanced portfolio: keep exposure to the spot market for the highest-value hours in winter, while maintaining contracted volumes at attractive prices to protect against very low prices in summer and shoulder months. This mix gives a better overall margin than remaining fully exposed to spot. We also expect prices in winter to moderate over time as consumption of liquid fuels and LNG is reduced when pipeline expansions are completed. If gas pipeline expansions come online, winter prices should decline.

Martín ArancetAnalyst

Just a small follow-up: do you see interest from solid distribution companies to sign new PPAs? Do you think this year you could sign new PPAs with distribution companies?

Fernando BonnetCEO

It could be. We are working with some of the large distribution companies on that front. I cannot say it will definitely be finalized this year, but we are actively engaged and working toward agreements.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes through Q&A with Marcos Saro with Allaria. Your microphone is open.

Marcos SaroAnalyst

I want to ask the following questions. Could you give us an approximation of the split between energy and capacity in spot revenues? How do you see the ramping in self-supplied fuel through 2027? How much EBITDA should we expect from the BESS project once it is fully operational? And should we expect dividend payments this year? Thank you.

Fernando BonnetCEO

Thank you for your question, Marcos. On the split between energy and capacity in spot revenues: it depends on the time of year because variable margin increases when more inefficient equipment runs or expensive fuels are used, while capacity payments remain fixed. In general terms, historically capacity payments were a larger portion, but right now the variable component is higher. As a rough generalization, you could consider about 60% variable and 40% capacity, but that will change by month and hour. On self-supplied fuel ramping through 2027: I expect we will maintain the level of liquid fuels and LNG we saw this year into next year. The part that will increase is self-procurement of local natural gas. We are working on that. I do not see us reaching 100% self-procurement of local gas, but achieving self-supply for at least some mid-size combined cycles would be good. That could be around 3 to 5 million cubic meters per day on average, which might represent roughly a third to 40% of our total consumption. As Plan Gas.Ar winds down, particularly closer to 2028, we expect to increase local natural gas self-procurement further. On EBITDA from the BESS projects: we expect the battery projects to contribute around $25 million to $27 million per year on a full-year basis once fully operational. Regarding dividend payments this year: (There was no direct answer given on dividends during the Q&A in this transcript.)

OperatorOperator

Again, if you have a question, please press the reaction button and then click on raise hand. This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Fernando Bonnet for any closing remarks.

Fernando BonnetCEO

Thank you. To wrap up, this was another quarter of strong execution for Central Puerto. We delivered solid financial results, continued to strengthen our commercial position, maintained a disciplined balance sheet, and made meaningful progress across our strategic growth initiatives. Looking ahead, we are focused on bringing our battery storage projects into operation at scale, advancing the development of our newly acquired Vaca Muerta assets, and continuing to pursue new business expansion opportunities to create long-term value for our shareholders while preserving financial flexibility. I would like to thank our people for their commitment, our customers and business partners for their trust, the financial sector, and our shareholders for their continued support. See you soon. Thank you for joining us today.

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