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Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp.(CCEC)Q1 2026 法說會逐字稿

27 段

管理層發言

OperatorOperator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corporation First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. We have with us Mr. Nikos Calapolorakos, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Brian Gallagher, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations; and Mr. Nikos Tripodakis, Chief Commercial Officer. Kindly note that Mr. Gery Kalogiratos, Chief Executive Officer, will join the call following the prepared remarks and will participate in the Q&A session. I must advise you that this call is being recorded today, Thursday, May 7, 2026. The statements in today's conference call that are not historical facts, including our expectations regarding sale or acquisition transactions and the expected effect on us, cash generation, equity returns and future debt levels, our ability to pursue growth opportunities, our expectations or objectives regarding future distribution amounts or share buyback amounts, dividend coverage, future earnings, capital allocation as well as our expectations regarding market fundamentals and the employment of our vessels, including delivery dates, redelivery dates and charter rates may be forward-looking statements as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the stated or forecasted results to be materially different from those anticipated. Unless required by law, we expressly disclaim any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether because of future events, new information, a change in our views or expectations to conform to actual results or otherwise. We make no prediction or statement about the performance of our common shares. I would now like to hand the call over to our speaker today, Mr. Brian Gallagher. Please go ahead, sir.

Brian GallagherExecutive Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. Good morning or afternoon to wherever you are, and thank you for listening to the Capital Clean Energy Carriers Q1 2026 Earnings Call. As a reminder, we'll be referring to the supporting slides available on our website as we go through today's presentation. So let's kick off with the highlights on Slide 4. Q1 showed further progress for the group across the board on three different fronts. Firstly, as we announced in our Q4 results in March, during the first quarter, we raised an additional EUR 250 million in a Greek bond with a 3.75% coupon. Secondly, and after the quarter end, we announced an innovative transaction with the Energy Trading Group, BGN, including a 10-year time charter for one of our existing LNG carriers. This will further boost our LNG revenue backlog to over $2.9 billion, which we'll cover in more detail later on. Thirdly, the business continued to deliver on all 14 of the vessels we had on the water during Q1, and this brought about a net income result of $18.3 million after off-hire periods and special survey costs incurred by two of our LNG carriers and was reflected in a cash dividend to our shareholders of $0.15 per share. In the final bullet on this slide, we show that we've got Board approval for a 20 million share buyback program over the next two years. Clearly, the outlook for the company and the sector has been dominated by events in the Middle East since February 28, and our Head of Commercial, Nikos Tripodakis, will explore more on these slides in his remarks later on. With that, I'll now hand over to Nikolaos Tripodakis.

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

Okay. So let me begin with the financial highlights for the period. Good morning or afternoon to everyone listening in today. Moving to Slide 6. Brian already touched upon the dividend payout, which remains an important and core component of the company's value proposition to shareholders. The $0.15 dividend we declared will be paid on May 20 to shareholders of record on May 11. Please note that this is the 76th consecutive quarter that the company has paid a cash dividend. Net income from continued operations was $18.3 million for the first quarter of 2026 compared to $32.7 million during the same period in the previous year. Our net income for the quarter was heavily impacted by off-hire periods and additional operating costs incurred by two of our LNG carriers which passed their five-year special survey during the period. Drydock expenses specifically during the first quarter of 2026 amounted to $6.2 million compared to $1.1 million during the first quarter of 2025. The increase was mainly attributed to drydock expenses incurred by the LNG carriers related to special surveys and redelivery under charter and drydock expenses incurred by two of our vessels passing their five-year special survey, which required planned repairs and maintenance. In addition, expenses this quarter also included war risk insurance premiums paid by certain of our vessels amounting to $2.7 million due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. Please note that these premiums were fully reimbursed by our charterers and are included in earnings. Moving on to the next slide, there are four LNG vessels that passed or will pass their five-year age milestone during 2026, namely Adamas, Kosendar, Istapos, which concluded their drydock in March and April, respectively, and Atlas and Daslipilos, which we expect to commence drydock in the third quarter of this year. After that, none of our vessels is expected to pass special survey until 2028. In terms of total dry dock days, we expect around 20 to 25 days of off-hire per vessel. In terms of total drydock costs, the guidance remains the same at approximately $5 million per drydock and around 20 to 25 days off-hire. Moving now on to Slide 8, we concluded the quarter with a cash position of $546 million, up from $296 million in the previous quarter with a financial leverage ratio of 45.6%. The financial position of the company was strengthened by the issuance of the EUR 240 million bond in February, evidence of our ability to tap into alternative sources of funding. Moving now on Slide 10, where we provide the summary of the expected newbuilding deliveries for the remainder of the year. Placio Two, a multi-gas carrier and Adamas was delivered to us a few days ago, and is expected to trade in the LPG and smaller gas markets on short- to medium-term charter business. In addition, we have brought forward the delivery dates of three LNG carriers, the Asimov, the Agamemnon, and the Alcroach, into what we expect to be a stronger charter market. We expect to report more on the employment of the LNG carriers in the coming weeks. Moving on to Slide 11. Following the BGN transaction, we now have 97 years of contracted backlog at an average PCA rate of approximately $86,400 USD per day, representing $2.9 billion of contracted revenue. Our LNG fleet continues to provide long-term cash flow visibility to our investors. If all options are exercised by all counterparties, the contracted backlog increases to 113 to 136 years or to $4.3 billion in contracted revenue, respectively. Turning now to Slide 12 and the BGN transaction we announced in April. As announced, we have agreed to sell a 49% interest in Yamora Mia-1, a 2023-built LNG carrier, to a global energy trader at a contract price of $230 million. The transaction is expected to be consummated in the first quarter of 2027, and will enable the company to retain a 51% stake and management oversight, while at the same time securing a 10-year time charter for the vessel with options to extend for up to six additional years. The charter arrangement, if all options are exercised, is expected to generate up to $485.6 million in revenues through 2043, further enhancing the visibility of the company's long-term cash flows. Moving now to our CapEx program, on Slide 13. As you can see, the funding of our newbuilding program is well supported. We have already paid a significant portion of the required CapEx, mainly supported by internally generated cash flows, asset monetization, and attractive debt financing, including the recent bond issuance. Part of the proceeds of the newly issued bond were used to repay the bond issued in 2021. We plan to use the remainder to support the financing of our CapEx and for other general corporate purposes. As we progress through 2026 and 2027, we expect CapEx to be more weighted toward the LNG carriers. As you can see, assuming 70% debt financing for the vessels that have not yet finalized debt arrangements in place, and without taking internally generated cash flows into account, we expect the company to be fully funded for the remaining CapEx and expect a significant amount of cash to be released back to the company. I would like now to turn to Slide 15 and our Chief Commercial Officer, Nikos Tripodakis, who will run through our LNG market slides. I will then be available to answer your questions at the end of the call. Nikos, over to you.

Nikolaos TripodakisChief Commercial Officer

Thank you, and good morning or afternoon to everyone. The first quarter in LNG shipping was shaped by the conflict in the Middle East with a substantial part of global LNG volumes stranded in the Arabian Gulf, eclipsing any seasonal softening in charter rates. The Qatar facility incident on the 18th of March was a pivotal moment for the LNG and LNG shipping markets, directly affecting global LNG supply dynamics. Qatar's role in the LNG industry is indispensable, producing approximately 30% of the world's output annually with nearly 80% of that to Asia as illustrated by the chart on Slide 15. This event represents a profound structural shift in our market, one that has material implications. As the chart indicates, the duration of Qatar's production outage is still unclear, but what is clear is that this outage will continue to put upward pressure on prices and highlight the need for security and diversification of supply, mainly for Asian buyers as we can see now on Slide 16. The reduction in available LNG is not merely a past event. It has already begun to reshape global energy market dynamics. We're witnessing direct competition between Asia and Europe for what has become a much scarcer commodity. European buyers must now act decisively to fill reserves ahead of winter, while gas storage levels in Europe remain approximately 20% lower than the five-year average. Meanwhile, purchasing is also expected to be strong, albeit more price sensitive. Looking ahead, energy security and security of supply will be critical. This is a theme that we will revisit throughout this discussion. When it comes to the effect of the Qatari outage for LNG shipping, flexible LNG from the U.S. will inevitably travel structurally longer routes, resulting in extended ton-miles and increased demand for modern tonnage. Moving over to Slide 17. We will now take a look into the role of the U.S. as a source of reliable and flexible supply in the future. The United States is now positioned at the heart of global LNG market developments, taking on a central and indispensable role in shaping future supply and demand dynamics. Analysis produced prior to recent geopolitical shifts already highlighted the surge in U.S. LNG volumes with Asia set to capture a growing share. Looking ahead, the scale of the demand for this expansion is staggering. Between now and 2035, an estimated 220 to 300 new LNG vessels will be required to facilitate this expansion, followed by a replacement cycle demanding an additional 250 to 300 LNG carriers beyond 2035. Turning now to Slide 18. The recent geopolitical events of Q1, however, have not affected all LNG carriers in the same way. Once again, large, modern and efficient vessels like the CCEC-controlled fleet capture the lion's share of the benefits while older and smaller tonnage is finding it increasingly more challenging to secure employment on long-term charters and have to compete against more efficient vessels. As such, the impact is visible with scrapping rates for older tonnage climbing sharply. 2025 set a new benchmark for LNG carrier scrapping as illustrated by the chart on the left. Not only did we witness a record number of vessels sent to the breakers, but the pace has accelerated even further in 2026 with five LNG carriers already scrapped in Q1 alone, while several others have been laid up. This run rate is unprecedented for this time of the year, underscoring the challenges that older vessels face, and we expect the trend to continue with approximately 80 to 100 steamships removed in the next three to five years. Combining now what we have discussed so far, let's have a look at CCEC's position in this market. Turning to Slide 19. CCEC is uniquely positioned to excel in this environment of higher energy prices, longer ton-miles and the need for fleet replacement. We control the lion's share of modern tonnage, more than 15% of all available newbuilding vessels, and we provide unique flexibility compared to any other operator when it comes to both newbuilding availability and diversification of delivery. We are also set to benefit from vessels redelivered to us on existing time charters towards the end of the decade, creating a staggered and diversified redelivery profile that allows us to capitalize on any commercial opportunity that arises in what is a very strong part of the forward time-charter curve as shown in our supply and demand summary on Slide 20. Under our supply and demand model, the main assumption change is the capacity reduction for which we assume three years. We assume no change in the delivery schedule of newbuildings and any other planned deliveries; this pushes the inflection point slightly into 2028 from our previous estimate of the end of 2027, exemplified by a net 231 LNG carriers being delivered to a market requiring between 224 and 277 depending on FID status. Clearly, there are a number of important and variable assumptions within these estimates. However, the dynamics highlighted in earlier slides provide us with confidence that there is ample demand for LNG shipping, which allows CCEC to benefit from the current geopolitical situation and generate positive returns for our shareholders. This concludes our presentation for today, and I'm happy to pass it back to the operator and open the floor for questions. Thank you.

分析師問答

OperatorOperator

Our first question is from Alexander Bidwell with Webber Research. And 277 depending on FID status. Clearly, there are a number of important and variable assumptions within these estimates. However, the dynamics highlighted in earlier slides provide us with confidence that there is ample demand for LNG shipping, which allows CCEC to benefit from the current geopolitical situation and generate positive returns for our shareholders. This concludes our presentation for today, and I am happy to pass it back to the operator and open the floor for questions. Thank you.

Alexander BidwellAnalyst, Webber Research

I wanted to circle back on the topic of LNG buyers and diversification. How have you seen this impact charter sentiment around longer-term ton-mile demand? Are charters expecting diversification to stretch ton-miles into the back half of the decade?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

It's a very good question and one that is tricky to answer accurately. What we're seeing now is something that has never happened in the industry month to month and then interesting month before: a sense of uncertainty regarding charterer preferences for Asian buyers. Something that was a constant in the energy commodity market was that charterer preferences were consistent and Asian buyers relied on relatively stable sourcing. That has shaken that consensus, and I believe more and more Asian buyers will go to the U.S. for their volumes. This structurally and inevitably increases ton-miles. Now, the extent of this is hard to gauge, but we do believe that this will be very beneficial for U.S. supply in the future, and as such, inevitably, longer ton-miles as well.

Alexander BidwellAnalyst, Webber Research

Thank you. Appreciate the color. Just switching gears. Appreciate the rundown on the newbuilding sale and the JV structure. Looking ahead, are you considering similar opportunistic deals to finance or open new builds? And is there any preference versus standard long-term charters?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

I would say that this was rather opportunistic as you said; it was a very good way of partially monetizing one of our newer assets. The vessel will be four years old when the transaction consummates. At the same time, we secured a 10-year charter for a vessel that, especially before the conflict, would have been a more difficult position given market conditions. So it was certainly opportunistic, but of course, if the valuation is right and the employment is right, we'll look at similar structures again.

OperatorOperator

Our next question is from Omar Nokta with Clarson Securities.

Omar NoktaAnalyst, Clarson Securities

Thank you. Hi, Gery. Just a couple of questions for me, maybe just one specifically to capital, and apologies if you already answered this in your presentation, but just in terms of the early delivery of the newbuildings by a few months' time, I just want to get a sense of what's behind that, what drove you to get those earlier, especially since I think two of them remain open for contract. Is there any kind of price concession you got from the yard for that, or are there charter opportunities maybe that are driving you to want to take delivery of them sooner?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

I'll answer the first part of the question with regards to why we brought deliveries forward and maybe we can take a bit of the market context for these vessels. The reason that we brought these deliveries forward is because we saw the potential to capture important market conditions. To put it into context, we had previously disclosed the delivery schedule of three of our LNG carriers; one was delayed by a few months, and the Agamemnon effectively returned to its original 2026 delivery. The Altmirs and the Algeus were both brought forward slightly to March/April 2026. We worked closely with the yards to align construction progress to start in this window, seeing it as a strength of the market. With regards to commercial rationale, we wanted to capitalize on the strengthening of the front part of the curve. To put you in perspective, one-way market rates were trading at around $35,000 at the end of January for certain Atlantic routes. Once the geopolitical shock occurred, rates spiked much higher and then normalized to around $100,000 per day for some of the modern tonnage on the front months. This effect on the high gas prices has driven both multi-month and one-year charter rates. So effectively, from our side, it was a quick commercial move to capitalize on what we believed would be a persisting strong market. Three months into the conflict, we are already in a position to realize the benefit of that move, and we continue to see a fairly strong market for one-year and winter charters.

Omar NoktaAnalyst, Clarson Securities

Okay, that's very helpful. Interesting dynamic there. Then perhaps as a follow-up, as you mentioned, spot rates were low before the crisis, they shot up, and now we're at elevated levels and seemingly steady. Are you surprised that rates have been able to hold up at these levels, given how much of Qatari capacity is offline? What do you think is actually keeping rates elevated, given the lack of cargos at least out of the Middle East?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

It's a very good question. I think the main driver behind the increase in charter rates is the increase in the flat price of the commodity. In energy shipping, it's not just ton-miles and availability of ships. It's also the underlying margin that any trader or producer can make on the cargoes. When the commodity price is up—from roughly $10–$11 per MMBtu to peaks around $25 and now back to around $17—the margin remains healthy to support higher charter rates. In many cases, the percentage increase in spot charter rates can exceed the percentage move in commodity margins. Yes, availability and geopolitical risk premiums are important and support the market, but the most significant factor is the increase in the flat price of gas globally and the fact that there's considerable risk premium pricing for month-to-month and one-year durations. That reduces speculative length in the market and keeps rates elevated.

OperatorOperator

Our next question is from Liam Burke with B. Riley Securities.

Liam BurkeAnalyst, B. Riley Securities

Thank you. Hi, Gery. How are you today? There's been a lot going on in the LNG market. Post-conflict, we have no idea how it shakes out, but has it changed your view of the non-LNG or LPG gas transport market? Has your perspective shifted across the non-LNG segments?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

No, not really. If anything, the conflict has had beneficial impact on rates across the broader gas transport markets. The long-term charter market is very strong and largely sold out. I think our LPG and non-LNG fleet are in a very good position to capture upside. We have seen fixtures at much higher levels than earlier in the year. The market for certain small and medium gas carriers has moved up significantly compared to earlier in Q1, and we expect to be able to give more color on the LPG and other segments over the coming weeks. There are a few things we are working on but can't disclose yet. Overall, we see improved market conditions and rising asset values, which is beneficial for our net asset value. There is always volatility and vulnerability to further geopolitical developments, so we'll continue to monitor closely.

Liam BurkeAnalyst, B. Riley Securities

Great, thank you, Gery. And the JV, the sale of the Yamora Mia, was to a global energy trading firm. Is this JV a precursor to doing more business with global trading firms?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

Liam, when you put together a joint venture like that, there is always potential for more business. BGN is one of the largest commodity traders out there, especially out of the U.S., and they have been expanding into LNG. So there are potentially multiple points of collaboration, both on employment and commercial structures. When the economics are right, similar ownership structures are an option, so this could pave the way for additional transactions with trading firms.

OperatorOperator

Our next question is from Sharif Omagrabi with BTIG.

Unknown Analyst (Sharif Omagrabi)Analyst, BTIG

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First, you talked about near-term strength in the curve. At the same time, Asia has been burning more coal. Is that something you see as a structural headwind over the near-term before more LNG supply comes on in the U.S., for example?

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

As I mentioned in the presentation, the Asian market is more price reactive and has increased coal burn as a short-term response, and that has always been the case historically. But I think these dynamics are incorporated in the forward curve. If you look at the forward curve for the commodity, the balance of 2026 remains very strong. The coal substitution effect has tightened the near-term curve and margins remain healthy. Structurally, we don't expect coal substitution to continue long term; policy and environmental drivers favor cleaner fuels and LNG. Coal replacement is more likely when prices reach certain levels, but current flat prices have been high enough to support margins that underpin higher shipping rates.

Unknown Analyst (Sharif Omagrabi)Analyst, BTIG

Got it. And then shifting to LPG, what does the charter market look like for your LPG carriers? It's a bit more of a niche market I'm less familiar with, so it would be helpful to get any sort of color around what sort of routes they trade or what the long-term time charter opportunities look like.

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

That's a good question. Think of our 22,000-cubic-meter multi-gas carriers: they are sophisticated, versatile vessels. The LCO2 and multi-gas business has a longer timeline and a number of projects are maturing towards the 2030–2035 timeframe. Until those projects fully materialize, we continue to work with a number of charterers and often position the vessels to trade in LPG, petrochemical, ammonia and other gas trades. Current market rates for one-year periods are notably higher than earlier in the year; spot and short-term markets are strong. The versatility of these vessels allows us to capture various trades and to achieve attractive returns given current market conditions.

OperatorOperator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Mr. Gery Kalogiratos for any closing comments.

Gerasimos KalogiratosChief Executive Officer

Thank you all. This was a constructive call. We look forward to connecting next quarter. Thank you.

OperatorOperator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

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