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Macro Bank Inc.(BMA)Q1 2026 法說會逐字稿

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管理層發言

OperatorOperator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the first quarter '26 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. Also, this event is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, Head of Investor Relations. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

Nicolas TorresHead of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's First Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed with the SEC and is available on our website. The first quarter 2026 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available on our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit occurring at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31, 2026. I will now briefly comment on the bank's first quarter 2026 financial results. Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 139.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, 28% or ARS 30.2 billion higher than the surplus in the previous quarter, and 131% or ARS 79.2 billion higher than a year ago. In the first quarter of 2026, the annualized return on average equity and the annualized return on our assets were 10% and 2.4%, respectively. Excluding restructuring expenses, ARS 12.9 billion after tax, the first quarter of 2026 net income would have totaled ARS 152.9 billion, and the annualized ROE and ROA would have been 10.9% and 2.6%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2026, operating income before general and administrative and personnel expenses totaled ARS 1.23 trillion, 3% or ARS 43.6 billion lower than the fourth quarter of 2025, and 16% or ARS 169.2 billion higher than the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2026, operating income after general administrative and personnel expenses was ARS 569.8 billion, 15% or ARS 73.8 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2025, and 24% or ARS 108.6 billion higher than a year ago. The bank's first quarter 2026 net interest income totaled ARS 975.2 billion, 7% or ARS 59.7 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2025, and 27% or ARS 207.2 billion higher year-on-year. This result is due to a 5% decrease in interest income and a 21% decrease in interest expense. In the first quarter of 2026, interest on loans represented 72% of total interest income. In the first quarter of 2026, the bank's strategy to remain short in U.S. dollars proved successful. The combination of the shorter position together with a long interest position and the allocation of the pesos generated by the sale of U.S. dollars resulted in a net gain. The bank's first quarter 2026 interest expense totaled ARS 485.7 billion, decreasing 21% or ARS 132.7 billion compared to the previous quarter and 27% or ARS 104 billion higher compared to the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, interest on deposits represented 93% of the bank's total interest expense, decreasing 22% or ARS 129.1 billion quarter-on-quarter due to a 407 basis point decrease in the average rate paid on deposits, while the average volume of private sector deposits increased 1%. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 24% or ARS 87.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 25.3%, higher than the 21.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the 23.2% posted in the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, Banco Macro's administrative expenses plus employee benefits totaled ARS 349.8 billion, 22% or ARS 101.5 billion lower than the previous quarter, due to lower employee benefits, which decreased 28%, and lower administrative expenses, which decreased 9%. On a yearly basis, administrative expenses plus employee benefits increased 3% or ARS 9 billion. Employee benefits decreased 28% or ARS 89.6 billion quarter-on-quarter. Compensation and bonuses decreased 61% or ARS 74.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the bank recorded ARS 19.9 billion restructuring expenses related to early retirement plans and several payment provisions. On a yearly basis, employee benefits increased 3% or ARS 6 billion and excluding restructuring expenses, employee benefits would have decreased 8% or ARS 18.7 billion quarter-on-quarter and 6% or ARS 13.9 billion year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that in the first quarter of 2026, Banco Macro reduced its branch network by 24 branches, down to 420 from 444 in December of 2025, and reduced its head count by 3%. In the first quarter of 2026, the result from the net monetary position totaled a ARS 349.8 billion loss, 15% or ARS 46 billion higher than the loss posted in the fourth quarter of 2025, and 1% or ARS 4.4 billion lower than the loss posted one year ago. Higher inflation was observed during the quarter, 158 basis points above the fourth quarter of 2025. Inflation was 9.44% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to 7.86% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, Banco Macro's effective income tax rate was 34.3%. In the first quarter of 2026, Banco Macro's total financing decreased 9% or ARS 1.1 trillion quarter-on-quarter, totaling ARS 10.63 trillion and increased 5% or ARS 458.9 billion year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2026, peso financing decreased 9%, while U.S. dollar financing decreased 6%. It's important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of March 2026 reached 8.2%, decreasing 40 basis points compared to December 2025. On the funding side, Banco Macro's total deposits decreased 7% or ARS 993.7 billion quarter-on-quarter and increased 10% or ARS 1.22 trillion year-on-year, totaling ARS 13.99 trillion and representing 76% of the bank's total liabilities. Private sector deposits decreased 8% or ARS 1.1 trillion quarter-on-quarter, and in the first quarter of 2026, peso deposits decreased 4%, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 7%. Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of March 2026 totaled 7.9%, unchanged from the previous quarter. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing total financial ratio reached 5.4%. It is worth mentioning that Banco Macro's non-performing total financial ratio and under expected credit losses, Stage 3 plus 90 days past due loans deteriorated 84 basis points during the first quarter of 2026, totaling 3.64% versus 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The final non-performing ratio is affected by mandatory reclassification of customers and Central Bank rules, taking into consideration customers' behavior across the financial system. Banco Macro's non-performing total financial ratio, excluding mandatory classification of customers, increased 109 basis points, reaching 4.73% in the first quarter of 2026 versus 3.64% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 168 basis points up to 6.92% from 5.23% in the fourth quarter of 2025. While commercial portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 66 basis points in the first quarter of 2026, up to 1.34% from 0.68% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The coverage ratio, measured as total allowance under credit losses over non-performing loans under Central Bank rules, reached 109.79% in the first quarter of 2026. Had the coverage ratio been 90%, which is similar to the coverage ratio of other private banks in Argentina, net income in the first quarter of 2026 would have totaled ARS 219.7 billion, representing an adjusted ROE of 15.7%. Banco Macro continued showing a strong solvency ratio, with an excess capital of ARS 4 trillion, a 32.4% capital adequacy ratio and a 32.4% Tier 1 ratio. In addition, the bank's liquid assets remain at an adequate level, reaching 78% of its total deposits in the first quarter of 2026. The bank seems to make the best use of this excess capital. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality remains under control and closely monitored. We keep working to further improve our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-optimized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

分析師問答

OperatorOperator

Our first question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian FloresAnalyst (Citi)

The first one is the usual one we have. If you have any revision on guidance, we know some of your peers have revised growth a bit in both loans and deposits. So just checking with you if the previous ranges you provided are still valid? And then I wanted to maybe do a double-click on asset quality. We saw still obviously some NPL deterioration. And we know you kept the coverage ratio at healthy levels. I just wanted to check with you if going forward, or are you already seeing better trends in terms of provisioning and customer behavior?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Brian. This is Jorge Scarinci. On your first question about guidance in terms of growth, loans or deposits: for the moment, we are maintaining the guidance that we gave last quarter. What we are seeing basically is that in the first quarter, when you look at growth in loans, there was a decline quarter-on-quarter, while on a yearly basis there was growth. Something to mention here is when you have a look at overdrafts, that is one of the components of our loans; this line is usually used as a way of allocating excess liquidity. As of March 2026, the market share in this line was 14.6%, well below the 18.1% market share that we posted one year ago. So this is quite affecting, and that's why the 5% growth on an annual basis. However, when you have a look at other lines like pledges, personal loans, discounted documents or mortgages, they are growing above 20% on a yearly basis. Because of this, and also because of what we've seen in April credit demand, both in pesos and in dollars, and what is going on in May where we are seeing a recovery in loan demand, we are maintaining our guidance for loans. Similar trend with deposits: we are maintaining the guidance on deposits, even though on a quarterly basis there was a decrease. We are seeing some upward trend in the current quarter onwards. In terms of your second question, asset quality: even though there was a deterioration that we've seen in the whole portfolio that reached 5.4%, we are still showing the best NPL to total loan ratio among our peers. And also, when you look at the coverage ratio, that is almost 110%, this is also a ratio that we are showing the highest among our peers. We commented in the press release that we would be going down to a level of 90% coverage, which is the average of our peers. The adjusted ROE for the quarter, of course annualized, would have been 15.7%. It is also worth mentioning that what we saw between February and March and also between March and April was a positive behavior on the consumer Stage 3 trend. So what we saw is that February apparently was a kind of a peak for the Stage 3 consumer, and March and April showed better trends. Also, in terms of commercial, the deterioration speed slowed in both months. Going forward, we are maintaining our cost of risk guidance, and we believe that we are close to the peak of this deterioration of asset quality trend that we have seen in the last 12 months. So that's it, Brian.

Brian FloresAnalyst (Citi)

Perfect. So 5.2% or approximately 5.2% cost of risk, real ROE close to 8%, right? So just confirming this?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Yes. In terms of guidance for growth in loans and deposits and also in terms of asset quality and cost of risk, yes: cost of risk is going to be between 5.5% and 6%. In terms of profitability, we posted, I would say, the best quarter among Argentine banks, and it was slightly above the annualized ROE guidance that we gave last quarter. Because of what we are seeing in terms of growth in the second quarter, this should be another good quarter for the bank. For the moment, we are maintaining the ROE guidance around 8% for adjusted ROE, that is without the nonrecurring items that we are showing in the quarter. We would like to wait about a quarter to see if we are going to increase our ROE guidance. So for the moment, ROE guidance is the same, around 8% for adjusted ROE.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.

Tito LabartaAnalyst (Goldman Sachs)

I guess following up on the ROE guidance, in particular: if we look at the trends, cost of risk is likely to come down as asset quality maybe stabilizes. You had some good NIM performance in the quarter, mainly due to lower funding costs. Do you expect that to revert where NIM should come down for the rest of the year? Or can you sustain this level of NIM, which would then imply perhaps upside risk to that ROE guidance? Just thinking how the NIM should evolve from here and impact profitability?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Tito, in terms of NIMs, going forward I think we will see a small contraction. The NIM for the first quarter was slightly above what we were expecting. I would say that the average for the year should be quite similar to the average of last year. So that is one of the reasons that could, at some point, compensate the level needed to maintain the same cost of risk going forward. That's why we are maintaining the ROE guidance. But again, we want to be a bit conservative and wait one more quarter to see if the bottom line is performing better than expected.

Tito LabartaAnalyst (Goldman Sachs)

Okay. No, that's clear, Jorge. Maybe just a follow-up there. The pressure on NIM: would it come because you expect funding costs to go up? Or do you think there'll be some pressure on asset yields as rates have come down? Also because you're growing loans faster than deposits. Could that put some pressure on NIM? Just to understand where the NIM pressure could come from.

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

What we are seeing is that inflation levels should be going slightly down on a monthly basis going forward. That is going to bring nominal interest rates slightly down, but I would say we could see slightly more pressure from asset yields compared to funding cost. Funding cost is also going to go down but we expect somewhat more pressure on the asset side.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

Ernesto María Gabilondo MárquezAnalyst (Bank of America)

Juan, Jorge, and Nicolas, congrats on your results. My first question will be a follow-up on Brian's questions on asset quality. You mentioned in the press release you made a recalibration of your model based on the behavior of the customers of the system, and that this was required by the Central Bank. In Mexico we follow a similar practice, and in the first quarter, Mexican banks also created higher provisions based on expected losses of the system, and they were considering the asset quality deterioration of the fintechs. Having said that, I asked your peers in their conference calls if this practice is followed in Argentina, and they say no. So it came to my surprise that you were the only one implementing it during the quarter. Can you elaborate on why you are implementing it and the others don't, especially as it was required by the regulator? Also, you are the only bank with an adequate reserve coverage ratio above 100%, the others don't. So I also just want to understand if you are conservative in your ratio or you are just following the international standards?

Juan ParmaChief Executive Officer

Ernesto, this is Juan. Thanks for your question. As you saw in the release, we are quoting three metrics of delinquency: 5.4, 4.7 and 3.6, okay? 5.4 is the more acute one, which includes the loans that are delinquent with us, plus the loans with us that are not delinquent but linked to delinquent exposures, plus delinquencies outside Banco Macro. That's the most acute one, and it's the one that the Central Bank uses for reporting. There's the second indicator, 4.7, which is the loans that are delinquent with us plus loans that are current with us for the same customer. So basically, what you do is you include in your delinquency ratio assets that are current in your books but are linked to assets with the same customer that are delinquent. Stage 3 is the methodology that we use for provisioning. So the cost of credit that you see in our results is driven by the Stage 3 delinquency calculation. That Stage 3 delinquency calculation is driven by our model, which is in alignment with accounting standards, and includes actual delinquencies plus indicators of risk of some loans that might be current but are higher risk, for example because of their score range. So those are the three distinctions, but it's important to define that our cost of credit, the provisions that we book in our results, is driven by the Stage 3 calculation. In our case, for the first quarter '26, Stage 3 was 3.64%. In that metric is where Jorge mentioned that for the consumer book in the Stage 3 metric we've seen, from February to March and from March to April, two consecutive months of reduction. We have not yet seen reduction on the commercial book in this Stage 3 metric, but we have seen a slowdown in the speed of deterioration. Have I made this complex topic clear, Ernesto?

Ernesto María Gabilondo MárquezAnalyst (Bank of America)

Super helpful. Just wanted to understand: in these plus indicators of risk, are you being more conservative than the other banks? Or is it just that your loan mix is showing you need to recognize higher provisioning? Just wanted to understand this.

Juan ParmaChief Executive Officer

Yes. Bottom line, yes, we are being more conservative. This does not, in our view, have to do with the outlook; it has to do with how conservative we are in our coverage. That conservatism is reflected in two ways. One is the model itself: each bank has its own model. The model needs to comply with standards, but it might vary. The second is the recalibration. The recalibration is something that by regulation banks need to do at least once a year. When you recalibrate you look at the last 12 months and recalculate probabilities of default. When you are in an upward cycle of delinquency, recalibrating to include the most recent 12 months naturally increases the probabilities of default for each cluster of the model. Regulation says you must recalibrate at least once a year, but you are free to recalibrate more frequently. We have been more conservative and more frequent in recalibrations to keep our coverage adequate. If you don't recalibrate earlier while delinquency is rising, by year-end you may take a larger hit. So bottom line, we are being more conservative both on model design and on periodicity of recalibration versus our peers. The difference is significant. As you've seen, the average of our peers is around 90% coverage and we are almost 110%. Naturally, as delinquency reduces, we should expect to reduce coverage as recalibration starts reflecting improvements. But that's how we see it, Ernesto. Is that clear?

Ernesto María Gabilondo MárquezAnalyst (Bank of America)

Yes, very clear. Then I just have a follow-up. Can you repeat your guidance for loan growth and deposit growth for this year? I know that you are not changing it, but just to double check what it was before? And then, a question on OpEx growth: can you remind us how should we think about recurring OpEx growth for this year, excluding the restructuring costs? And my last question is on your earnings expectations and ROE evolution throughout the year. I know you are right now at 11% and that you mentioned that you will wait for the second quarter to see if you can improve your guidance. How should we think about the seasonality of the ROE — the second quarter should be a little bit lower and then trend up? I just wanted to understand how to think about earnings and ROE evolution throughout the year to meet your guidance.

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Ernesto, in terms of guidance for growth, we are maintaining the loan growth guidance of 42% nominal growth for the year and 34% nominal growth in deposits for the year. That is the guidance we are maintaining. Regarding whether those are in real terms: it depends on the inflation you use in your model, but we are using an inflation level of 28%. In terms of expenses going forward: we have explicitly commented before that we are in a process of making the bank more efficient, even though we were already showing excellent efficiency levels. We are in the process of becoming more efficient. The idea is to continue through at least the second quarter and possibly into the third quarter, depending on how this evolves, reducing the number of employees and the number of branches. We do not provide specific headcount or branch numbers going forward, but a very important point is that when you look at expenses on a yearly basis, we are negative in real terms. The idea is to continue to show slightly negative numbers in terms of the evolution of expenses in real terms. If you exclude the restructuring costs, our recurrent costs would have decreased 6% year-on-year in the first quarter. We expect that trend of reduction in real terms of cost, excluding restructuring, to be maintained. We do not provide guidance at that granularity; we provide guidance on volume growth and ROE and trends, but not specific line-by-line guidance. In sum: expect continued reductions in real terms, excluding restructuring. On seasonality of ROE: historically the fourth quarter tends to be strong. We want to see if the trends we are observing in the second quarter materialize; if the second quarter is another good quarter, we may have more elements to be positive and potentially increase ROE guidance. For now, we prefer to be cautious and wait one more quarter before updating guidance.

Juan ParmaChief Executive Officer

Let me put it another way: we've had an encouraging first quarter compared with our guidance. We expect another encouraging quarter for the second quarter. So we are not changing previous guidance because it may be too early, but we are optimistic based on what we've seen in the first quarter, which was slightly above guidance. The adjusted ROE guidance was 8% and our adjusted ROE for the first quarter is 11.6%. So it's encouraging. We are seeing encouraging numbers for the second quarter. Of course, we cannot give forward-looking specifics. In essence, we want to be cautious before we update guidance.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Yuri FernandesAnalyst (JPMorgan)

Hey, guys. Good morning. Hi, Juan, Jorge, Nicolas. I would like to ask more of a macro question on how you are seeing Argentina today. I think February was bumpy, March the data was pretty good. How are you feeling, like, the economy right now? Are you seeing a recovery and more demand? Also, any early delinquency indicators — how are you seeing April and May? When we look at your new NPL formation, the new bad loans are still a little bit up, but you are doing more provisions, and they are kind of stable, growing but growing less. So my question is: if the economy is improving and you are seeing that, is it also translating into early delinquency peaking? Thank you.

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Hi, Yuri. Yes, I think the economy is showing some signs of recovery. Industrial production indices are up on a monthly and yearly basis. The harvest at this time of the year is reaching record levels. Massive consumer sectors that were showing poor performance are showing less negative numbers. There are hints that the economy is recovering, slowly but recovering. We are seeing good trends in the consumer Stage 3 between February, March, and April. In terms of the commercial portfolio, it is still deteriorating but the speed of deterioration is lower than before. The recovery of the economy should have a positive impact on delinquency, but the key question is timing. We still don't know whether improvements will show in May or June or in the third quarter, but recovery should positively impact the delinquency cycle.

Yuri FernandesAnalyst (JPMorgan)

No, super helpful. If I may, another one on deposits. I know there is seasonality in the first quarter, which explains the quarter-on-quarter drop. But on year-over-year, checking accounts and savings accounts, what you call transactional deposits — the cheaper funding — they are growing less. I think they are now 41% of total; they were 48% one year ago of your total private deposits. Why is that? Why did the cheaper deposits weaken this quarter? I know inflation has been coming down, so I would expect those deposits that have some kind of cost of opportunity to not decrease. Any color why the cheap deposits were weaker this quarter?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Well, as you said, it's holiday season in Argentina. It's reasonable and expected that in terms of deposits there was no growth and transactional deposits declined. This is why we do not rely solely on the first-quarter trend because it's seasonally always the weakest quarter for deposits. We think this trend will turn around and we expect increases in peso and dollar deposits. We are keeping the guidance of 34% nominal growth in total deposits for the year.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-LopezAnalyst (HSBC)

Hello, Juan, Jorge, Nicolas. Thank you for taking my question. Two questions. One: you have securities gains of ARS 70 billion on your bonds at amortized cost. I want to understand: that is a voluntary sale of bonds that had appreciated and should not in itself be recurring. It's a normal operation and you had a bond gain this quarter. I just want to make sure about that. Second: can you tell us about the rest of your amortized bond portfolio and whether you, at this point, have a gain or a loss in that portfolio? Finally, what do you expect for the currency by the end of the year? Thank you.

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Hi, Carlos. For the first part of your question: the ARS 70 billion gain that we posted this quarter was not a repricing of the entire bond portfolio. It was a sale we made on part of the bonds that are due in June 2027. We sold part of that portfolio where the market price was above the accounting price, which produced the ARS 70 billion gain. With those pesos we bought longer-duration and higher-yield bonds that are due in September 2028, also tied to inflation. Regarding unrealized gains or losses in our held-to-maturity securities: broadly speaking, there are more unrealized gains than losses, but I don't have the exact number here. I can try to provide it later, though we are not disclosing that as specific public guidance today. On currency expectations for the year-end: we work with a few local economists. The market consensus is that the currency will devalue at a rate below inflation. The devaluation consensus is between 20%-22% for the year while inflation is between 27%-28%, which implies an exchange rate roughly in the range of ARS 1,700–1,800 by the end of the year according to those economist projections.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.

Pedro OffenhendenAnalyst (Latin Securities)

Hello, Juan, Jorge, Nicolas. Good morning. I wanted to ask on your loan growth guidance for the year: how should we think of the split between pesos and dollar loans? And have you seen any rebound so far in the second quarter in any specific product, given more stable funding rates this quarter?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Hi, Pedro. What we are seeing in the second quarter is more recovery in dollar-denominated loans than in pesos, although both are positive. Going forward this year, dollar loan growth is expected to slightly outweigh peso loan growth, even though the bi-monetary portfolio is expected to be about 42% nominal, consistent with the guidance we gave earlier.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Matias Cattaruzzi with AdCap.

Matias CattaruzziAnalyst (AdCap)

Hi. Good afternoon everyone. I have a quick follow-up on the loan growth guidance. The prior guidance that you gave us on the fourth quarter 2025 earnings call was 20% loan growth for the year, and now you told us 42% nominal. Having in mind 28% inflation, is this a lowering of the guidance?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Hi, Matias. No. The guidance we gave last quarter was between 15% to 20% in real terms, and now we are speaking in terms of nominal; so it's pretty much the same in the two forms of expression.

Matias CattaruzziAnalyst (AdCap)

Great. Then a follow-up on regulation: do you see room for further easing reserve requirements in coming months? How do you see the second part of the year for the banks? Will the growth in returns for the sector come with a lowering of NPLs and provisions and an increase in loans, or will it also come with a tailwind from a regulatory environment?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Regarding regulations: part of the increase in reserve requirements was turned around in the last part of last year. Going forward, it's hard to say. Reserve requirements are an instrument the Central Bank can use to inject additional liquidity, but we cannot forecast reductions in the reserve requirement scheme. In terms of the rest of the year for the industry: based on what we discussed, we see a recovery in the economy and increased loan demand in the second quarter. We expect these factors to positively impact the delinquency trend and eventually result in relatively lower provisions. The rest of the year might be, and I emphasize might be, good for the industry.

Matias CattaruzziAnalyst (AdCap)

Great. One last question about dollar-denominated mortgages. How is that business going? Is it going to be a stronger part of Banco Macro's business, dollar-denominated lending to non-dollar-producing clients?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

That credit line is basically for ABC1 clients: dollar mortgages for five years. It is evolving but the increase is marginal and currently not material to the overall loan portfolio. The amounts are relatively small. They are evolving but not making a big difference in the loan portfolio evolution. Regarding whether dollar loans will gain traction beyond mortgages: yes, especially in sectors like energy, oil and gas, mining and agribusiness that demand U.S. dollar loans. We are seeing some recovery in loan demand in U.S. dollars in April and May, and expect that trend to continue.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Agustin Pacheco with Banco Mariva.

Agustin PachecoAnalyst (Banco Mariva)

Hi, can you hear me?

OperatorOperator

Yes.

Agustin PachecoAnalyst (Banco Mariva)

Perfect. I would like to ask about deposit performance, which appears to have outpaced both broader system trends and peers, particularly in USD deposits. What were the main drivers behind this outperformance? And as system-wide deposits continue to recover, do you expect Banco Macro to keep gaining share?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Agustin, the idea is if we want to keep growing our loan portfolio and gaining market share, deposits are the main source of funds. The plan is to continue growing deposits in both pesos and dollars depending on domestic rates and loan demand. This won't be a straight upward line — there will be ups and downs depending on market conditions and quarters — but over the medium-to-long term we aim to continue gaining share in deposits.

OperatorOperator

Next question from Camila Azevedo with UBS.

Camila Villaça AzevedoAnalyst (UBS)

Hi, everyone. Thank you for the space for questions. I have two from my side. First, on capital and dividends: you have close to ARS 4 trillion in excess capital with a coverage ratio near three times. Can you please update us on your capital allocation priorities? M&A, buybacks, or additional dividends beyond what's already been approved? My second question is on your recent acquisition of Banco Senz. It is still pending Central Bank approval. What is the expected timeline, and how do you plan to integrate it into the Personal Pay digital ecosystem operationally? Thanks a lot.

Juan ParmaChief Executive Officer

Thanks, Camila. On capital: if you've been following Banco Macro, the bank has always prioritized keeping a strong capital position to manage through cycles and to be ready to take growth opportunities, both organic and inorganic. We remain positive on the outlook for Argentina and the potential for loan growth: loans-to-GDP are still low at roughly 11% versus peer countries in the region that are much higher. We want to keep strong capital to support organic growth and to be ready for inorganic investments. We have executed acquisitions in the past, including Ita, and more recently investments in complementary digital businesses, Personal Pay and Banco Senz, which will require capital going forward. On dividends: Central Bank regulations currently limit dividends to 60% of announced results for last year, which constrains distributions. Regarding Personal Pay and Banco Senz: we have filed for Central Bank approval and are progressing through the expected regulatory process. I won't give a specific timeline for the regulator, but our central scenario is to be ready to start operating the integrated Personal Pay wallet supported by a dedicated bank-as-a-service platform through Banco Senz by the first quarter next year, contingent on obtaining Central Bank approval this year. That will depend on the regulator's timeline. In the meantime, we are working in parallel — without engaging in any 'gun-jumping' risks — on technology, people, and risk management so that when approval arrives we can integrate as fast as possible.

Camila Villaça AzevedoAnalyst (UBS)

That's clear. Thank you.

OperatorOperator

Next question from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian FloresAnalyst (Citi)

Hi, team, and thank you for the opportunity to make a follow-up. Jorge, on the securities at amortized cost: this portfolio is still relevant and you were opportunistic based on market price being higher than carrying value. From a strategic perspective, if market conditions improve, could you be opportunistic and seize these opportunities as they come? What I'm saying is this is not a sacred part of the book: you could deploy or redeploy capital as you see fit. Do you have this flexibility or a more fixed mandate?

Jorge Francisco ScarinciChief Financial Officer

Yes, Brian. We, like other banks, stay on top of market conditions and seek opportunities. To get higher returns you often need to take longer duration. The idea is to continue monitoring the market and if another attractive opportunity arises, we will pursue it. This will depend on market conditions and prices, but historically we've shown we can manage market trends well, and we'll continue to take advantage of conditions when appropriate.

OperatorOperator

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Nicolas TorresHead of Investor Relations

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

OperatorOperator

This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

逐字稿來自第三方供應商(Alpha Vantage),非本平台第一手解析;講者職稱依原始資料呈現,未經正規化。