管理層發言
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. Today with us are Mrs. Belen Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager; and Diego Cesarini, IRO and Head of Asset and Liability Management. This presentation and the first quarter of 2026 earnings release are available on BBVA's Investor Relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat. First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under U.S. Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2025 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. I will now turn the call over to Belen Fourcade. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for BBVA Argentina's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. During the first quarter of the year, our business model demonstrated resilience within a macroeconomic environment characterized by a gradual transition and the normalization of key financial variables. We observed a reduction in interest rate volatility, which sustained the downward trend initiated in the previous year, alongside ongoing adjustments in monetary and regulatory policy aimed at better management of liquidity. While the combination of fiscal discipline and stabilizing external indicators establishes a more predictable framework for the financial sector, we maintain a cautious and prudent outlook regarding the pace, timing and evolution of a broader private credit recovery in the upcoming quarters. Moving into our financial highlights for the quarter, BBVA Argentina posted an inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 85.2 billion for the first quarter of 2026. This represents a 31.2% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by revenue performance and expense management. This bottom-line expansion boosted our quarterly ROE to 8.3%. At the same time, net interest income grew by 5.9% sequentially to ARS 879.9 billion. Our funding costs fell faster than asset yields due to the shorter average life of our liabilities, expanding our total net interest margin to 18.6%. Regarding efficiency, our quarterly efficiency ratio stood at 51.4%, with personnel benefits and administrative expenses reflecting the ongoing management of our corporate structure. Let's look at the dynamics of our balance sheet and credit portfolio. Total financing to the private sector closed the quarter at ARS 15.7 trillion. While local currency loans fell 6.5% due to seasonal low commercial activity, our foreign currency private loans grew by 6.8% sequentially, which represents a 23.3% increase in dollar terms. We continue to see continuous momentum in pledged and mortgage lines. Furthermore, we continue to capture business effectively, mainly driven by the commercial segment and foreign currency loans. Our consolidated loan market share rose to 12.15%, signaling a total gain of 95 basis points over the last 12 months. On the funding side, total deposits reached ARS 17.5 trillion. Private deposits saw a minor seasonal 8 basis points market share dip to 9.93%, but they remained up 78 basis points year-over-year. Regarding asset quality, systemic pressures caused our nonperforming loan ratio to rise to 5.60%, primarily driven by the retail card and consumer portfolios. However, commercial delinquency remained exceptionally well behaved at just 0.50%. Our cost of risk dropped from 8.11% last quarter to 6.14%, partially thanks to our strengthened origination policies, leaving our coverage ratio at 88.41%. Looking at solvency and liquidity, our liquidity ratio closed at a very comfortable 45.5%. More importantly, our capital position remains robust with a regulatory capital ratio of 18.8%, representing 128.7% excess of our minimum regulatory requirements. Before opening the floor to your questions, I want to highlight that on May 15, the Central Bank approved our dividend distribution for ARS 69 billion, which underscores our unyielding commitment to generating shareholder value. In conclusion, BBVA Argentina enters the rest of 2026 with an exceptionally solid foundation, backed by robust capital, healthy liquidity and an expanding market footprint, we possess all the necessary tools to lead the market and supply credit as the Argentine financial system normalizes. Thank you for your time. Operator, please open the line for questions.
分析師問答
Our first question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.
My question, I guess, is on the asset quality outlook. It seems you're getting a little bit more constructive there, although we're still seeing NPLs deteriorate, but provisioning levels came down. We saw coverage come down a little bit more. Just to understand how comfortable you are on the credit quality improving from here. Should we already begin to see that in the second quarter? And then what would that then mean for loan growth? Do you think loan growth will accelerate as you see that? Or just to get a sense of the timing on how this credit cycle should evolve from here?
This is Diego. Thanks for the question. Well, as you say, we are a little more comfortable with asset quality in this first quarter of the year. We have been able to make provisions at a below level of last quarter. There are certain one-offs there, as we mentioned in our press release, we have a better rating on some wholesale customers that affected us positively. But besides that, I think that our origination policies are working, and we are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Having said this, of course, the situation still remains a little difficult. For many quarters, in general, we have been thinking that the worst was over, and finally the solution was delayed. But we remain reasonably comfortable that during the second quarter, we will be stabilizing and we could probably see a better outcome than in the first one. Regarding loan growth, we have been reviewing downwards our expectations. We started the year thinking about the range of 25% to 30% growth in real terms. Now we are thinking of a range between 15% and 20%. Of course, the first quarter of the year was not easy. Seasonally, it's not the best quarter of the year. Peso demand is low in the first quarter. But dollar demand was still strong. The second quarter probably will be a little better. And in the second half of the year, we are seeing probably a better performance. Regarding the retail business, of course, consumer and credit cards will take longer to recover. We need to be comfortable for new origination.
Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Maybe a follow-up on Tito's question. If you could provide maybe an update across the lines, Diego, on the guidance. We know we saw some interesting dynamics on the deposit side. And I don't know if you could maybe double-click there as to what is happening. We saw very, I would say, competitive dynamics in terms of the funding in dollars. So I just wanted to check if this is seasonality, if this is everybody fighting for these dollar deposits? And also, if you could provide your outlook for the overall NIMs because we see that they were expanding maybe despite the challenges, right? So just trying to understand how sustainable do you think these good margins should be throughout the year?
Okay. Well, starting with the guidance on deposits. Probably we could adjust that guidance regarding how much we are growing the loans. Many years have started with slow loan growth and then the year performed better. So in the first quarter, of course, we saw a difficult dynamic in deposits. We reduced our size in real terms, but that is not to worry in our opinion because, as loan demand was not picking up, we needed fewer deposits. So we were not fighting for commercial ones, especially. Regarding dollar deposits, they are growing slowly but constantly; we are seeing a 2% to 3% monthly growth. It's true that retail customers are still buying dollars every day. So we are keeping a portion of those deposits. We are not really fighting for deposits. I think that banks in general terms are still liquid. Loan-to-deposit in dollar terms is still at a systemic level probably below 50%. So there's still some room for the banking industry to grow in dollar loans without having to fight for more deposits. We have been able to issue also local bonds at reasonable rates. So I see a good dynamic in this part of the business. Regarding NIMs, nominal NIMs have increased around 100 basis points in this quarter, but it's also true that inflation was also higher. So we like to measure NIMs in real terms, and they have been mostly flat in the first quarter. They have grown, I guess, 15 basis points. We have seen this real-term NIM very stable in the last not just quarter, but in the last year and even more than a year. And we are expecting that behavior for the coming quarters. We expect next quarter to be also flat or maybe a little positive because inflation is going down. For the second semester, if inflation still keeps going down and rates follow that path, we could see a little deterioration in NIM. But in real terms, I would say that it will be a very similar year to last one. We are not seeing—we think that net interest income is a positive contributor to the recovery of ROEs for this year.
Perfect, Diego. So just to confirm, your ROE range is reiterated for 2026?
Yes, we keep that guidance. We have been talking about low to mid-teens. We keep that guidance, probably closer to low than to mid, but we are still there.
Our next question comes from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.
I wanted to do a follow-on on a question on coverage. How should we think it going forward? Is it maybe a target for the bank to bring it back closer to the previous levels?
Well, we have seen our coverage ratio in line with the whole financial system going down a little below 100. Probably we are seeing the bottom of that ratio, and we should start seeing a recovery on that ratio in the coming quarters. We do not have a specific target. We do not have a specific timeline, but we know that it should go back at least to 100 in the coming future.
Pedro, this is Belen. I just wanted to add to what Diego was saying regarding coverage: there is not a specific number right now that we have in mind in terms of buffering that level of coverage. We are still focused on the needs that we have on provisioning. I mean we have still not passed through the fall in the NPL matters and on cost of risk. So again, remember that coverage will always be reduced as long as we consider that it makes sense for us to increase cost of risk in change of that. So again, as Diego said, the system is at our same level. We are not worried about these levels of coverage.
Perfect. And if I might add on NPLs, how do you see asset quality maybe through the quarter? Was January, February much different from March or was it an acceleration equally between months?
No. In March, I think that there was a deceleration. And we are seeing that trend continue. Probably April could be a little above March, but still mainly flat. From then on, we should see NPLs stable for a couple of months and then starting to come down until we reach a level by the end of the year that could be a little below what we are seeing right now.
Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.
You have probably commented on this already, but can you tell us how the quarter is coming along? We're already in the middle—actually at the end of May. We saw this negative growth in the first quarter. Now you have lower rates, now you have perhaps a more stable framework. Are you starting to see demand come back and if so in which areas?
Carlos, this is Diego. Well, the quarter started slowly even with lower rates in terms of peso activity. But in the last couple of weeks, we have seen more demand or more questions from companies regarding peso loans. When deposit rates were around the 30s, there was no interest in peso loans. But now that deposit rates have fallen to the 20s level, we are seeing more interest from companies. So we are expecting a pickup in demand mainly in commercial loans. As I said before, seasonally, the first 3 or 4 months of the year are usually very low on peso demand. But starting in May with tax payments and in the next month when companies pay the aguinaldo, complementary salary that they pay, we usually start to see better demand in local currency. Regarding dollars, of course, there has been pretty good demand in the first 4 months of the year. And on the contrary, in May, we are seeing a little more calm in this currency.
And in terms of the dollars, if I can ask, in the past you have had continuous purchases by retail investors of physical dollars. How has that evolved in the last couple of months?
Retail investors have been buying dollars since all the regulations were lifted one year ago. Of course, we are not seeing the same level of demand that we saw in the third quarter of last year, but I would still say that it's high compared with historical levels. So we are not at the highest, of course, but people are still buying and saving in dollars mainly.
Our next question comes from Matias Cattaruzzi with AdCap.
I have two questions. First, how do you see the TAMAR trajectory over the coming quarters? Do you expect peso NIM to hold or lower? And do you have NPL guidance for year-end 2026? And what is the view on GDP growth and a potential recovery in real wages in the second part of 2026?
Well, I will start with TAMAR. We have seen a pretty strong decrease in TAMAR rates through March and April, which has provided good fuel for our NII as we have shorter-term liabilities than assets. What we are seeing is that this negative level of interest rates is not sustainable. Probably we are seeing it coming to a neutral level or something close to neutral in the coming months, mainly because inflation is going down more than TAMAR going down. We expect TAMAR to be in line with inflation for the coming months. So if inflation keeps going down, TAMAR could go marginally down, but not too much. I think that the big movement has already been done this year at least. Regarding peso NIMs, as I was saying before, they have remained pretty stable in real terms. We are expecting nominal NIMs to fall a little as interest rates go down, but when you consider that inflation is also going down, we are seeing a smaller loss on our net income from inflation. It's reasonable to say that peso NIMs will hold pretty stable in the coming quarters, probably a little down, but no more than 50 basis points or 100 basis points at the most. Regarding NPLs, we are not providing specific guidance. But as I said before, we think that it will be a little lower than the levels that we have seen at the end of this first quarter. It should be around 5% or a little below, we guess. Regarding GDP, we are expecting 3%.
Sorry, about real wages recovery?
Well, real wages should recover as inflation is going down, we expect. One of the main reasons why real wages decreased last year was the pickup in inflation. So we should see a reversal of that trend. We are pretty confident generally on the outlook. This first quarter has brought a lot of good news for the financial system and the country. So we think those developments should start to have an impact soon.
Great. And then as a follow-up, are you expecting real interest rates in the coming quarters to be tighter than before?
Real interest rates, we are expecting them to come back to neutral levels, but more as a consequence of inflation going down than TAMAR going up.
Our next question comes from William Buonsanti Barranjard with Itau BBA.
I have two quick ones. First, on your recently-done layoff program, if you could share with us the amount of savings you're expecting from it? And a second one, still on loan growth. If you could go through the year in terms of expectations of growth, when it accelerates? And what is the amount expected for growth, if any, in the second half of the year?
Regarding our layoff program, it's not really a program, I would say. The bank in the latest two years, as part of our growth plan, has been very aggressive in growth. We have grown more than 400 basis points in loans through the last three years without having acquired any entity. We are, in fact, the bank that has grown the most in the Argentinian financial system without buying or merging with another bank. So we have been growing in payrolls. Now this quarter, we are making a little efficiency, but it's usual business. Probably in the coming quarter, you could also see some more layoffs. But as I said before, it's not part of a program. It's just usual business. Sometimes we grow, sometimes we reduce employees. Savings will impact relatively quickly. I think that in less than approximately a year or fifteen months, we recovered what we have paid for those layoffs. In terms of loans, as I was saying, we are expecting every quarter to be a little better than the previous one. At the beginning, the focus will be on the commercial side and bigger and medium-sized companies. Dollar demand, even if I said May came a little soft, we are expecting it to pick up quickly. We have many companies looking for dollar loans and many projects in the pipeline. On the retail part of the business, we are more focused right now on mortgages. Mortgages have shown a really low impact in NPLs. They are still at very low levels. People are paying. We are originating mortgages very cautiously with loans-to-value that are very safe. So we are not slowing down on mortgages. We were the only bank that in the fourth quarter of last year kept very competitive prices. So we are still leading the recovery in this market. The same with pledged loans and car loans: even if the first quarter was not as big in new demand, we are partners with four brands and have a substantial portion of the new car loans. So we still want to be there. As I said before, this is probably not the year to be that aggressive in retail business. We have been growing very, very fast in the past two years: more than 80% in real terms in 2024 and almost 50% last year. So it doesn't really matter if this year we are growing 20%, 15% or 25%. It's the same. We intend to keep growing in the country, and there is a lot of room to keep going. We are not really in a hurry, especially in retail business until general conditions start to improve.
Our next question comes from Martin Argento with Delta Asset Management. Sir, can you open your microphone? I believe you are having some technical issues. Sir, can you open your microphone? We are going to go ahead to...
Hello, now you can hear me. Sorry, I have a problem with the microphone.
We can hear you. Go ahead.
Yes, sorry. I have a few quick questions. First, on efficiency. The ratio came in 51% this quarter. Partly, I know, that was impacted by this one-off severance. But where do you see the efficiency ratio landing by year-end? And what's the steady state in the long term? And the other question is about ROE. You have guided to mid-teens for 2026, and I know it's tough to give a number for 2027 given the election cycle. But directionally, where do you see ROE in the longer term when the cycle fully normalizes, if you imagine? And related to this, how much of a drag is RECPAM for ROE nowadays?
Thanks, Martin. Regarding efficiency, last year as a whole our efficiency was 53.9%. The last quarter of last year was really low because of one-offs. When you compare it to this first quarter, you see a spike in the ratio to 51%, but it also, as you mentioned, has some one-offs. For the whole year, we are expecting it to be much better than the previous one as our fees are improving. We have been improving fees and NII, of course, and our expenses are under control. So we are expecting a better performance of this ratio. Probably for the year as a whole it will be below 50%. I could say around 48%–49%, which would be a substantial improvement compared to past years. In the future, we need to keep improving on this ratio. It's still very high. We do not have a specific target, but volume should offset any fall in NIMs and fees should keep growing. Expenses should be kept under control, so the trend for this ratio will keep going down. Regarding ROE, it's very difficult to give guidance for coming years as we do not have a track record of normal years in Argentina. We have been living under regulations that have limited normal banking activity. We know that we still have a lot of room to grow and that we will reach higher ROEs. We also know that when inflation accounting adjustments are removed, comparability will change. Argentina could possibly meet the requirement of accrued inflation over the last 36 months below 100% by the end of next year, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Central Bank will change accounting rules immediately. Right now we are not comparable to banks in other geographies. If you compare to a Brazilian, Peruvian, or Colombian bank in normal inflation environments of 3%–5%, you should subtract 2%–4% from those ROEs to make them comparable with banks in Argentina, given the accounting differences. The precise impact depends on how high inflation is at that moment. If inflation is 3%, the impact would be small; if it's 10%–12%, the impact would be much higher. But we think we have a lot of room to keep improving our ROE. We are comfortable with our capital position, and we know that to be a bigger bank in a bigger financial system we have to deliver on ROE.
Our next question comes from Marcos Seru with Allaria.
It is about NPLs. The Central Bank rules require classifying a loan as nonperforming if that client is delinquent with another bank. I wanted to know how much of the NPL you reported is driven by this cross-bank reclassification rule and how much are actually delinquent with the bank? And also another question: could you separate the deposits and loan growth guidance between pesos and dollars?
Marcos, thank you for your question. Regarding the rule you mentioned about having to classify a client as nonperforming if they are nonperforming in another bank, this only applies for commercial loans, not for individuals. Our commercial NPL is below 1%. The only potential worsening we saw, which we are already seeing improving by April, was with some SMEs, but we don't have any particular client that is substantial to your question or to our provisioning. I think that's what you meant in this case, if I'm not mistaken.
Yes, perfect.
Regarding the other question on currency breakdown, we are seeing stronger growth in dollars for both deposits and loans than in pesos this year. The Central Bank monetary policy has been very restrictive in the last couple of years. As a system, deposits have not grown in the last two years. At BBVA, we have grown a lot because we gained market share. For this year, which is not especially strong in local currency, we are expecting both deposits and loan growth in local currency of around 10%–15% in real terms. That implies a stronger second half of the year because the year started very slow. Regarding dollars, we are seeing deposit growth of around 30% and loan growth of around 40%.
Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
I think we didn't touch on the regulatory side. So I just wanted to check with you because we know that the government has been flexibilizing some of the measures. So I just wanted to check with you if there's any short-term low-hanging fruit that the banking system as a whole is still asking for in terms of support on the regulation side. And also, Diego, I think maybe the idea we get from what you mentioned today along with Belen is that we are seeing more of a normalized cycle, right, in terms of credit. So just you spoke a bit on some better trends in credit demand. If you could maybe provide a view of what is missing as the missing piece to turn the whole cycle around in a stronger way given the solid initial traction we're seeing?
Okay. Regarding regulations, we all know what happened in the third quarter of last year with the reserve requirement regulations that were put in place; they meant interest rates went up quickly and there were operational difficulties to comply on a daily basis. Those regulations have been mainly removed, which makes sense and has reduced volatility. Reserve requirements are still high in Argentina, even if not as extreme as before. For local currency, reserve requirements reached 30% of our deposits, but one-third of that we complied on the Central Bank account at a 0% rate and the remaining two-thirds are met with bond positions that we would hold anyway. We assume that whenever loan demand in pesos picks up and the Central Bank is comfortable with the path of inflation, they will start to release these high reserve requirements. In the meantime, we have more liquidity and free liquidity. We have enough liquidity to grow even if the Central Bank doesn't decrease these requirements in the short term. So liquidity is not an issue and we think we can still gain market share in local and foreign currency. Regarding what is needed to normalize the credit cycle: a lot of things are happening in Argentina and not everything has an immediate effect. We come from decades of mismanagement. In the past four to five months Argentina has passed important reforms—labor reform, tax law amendments, a budget, the Central Bank has started buying dollars, a rating agency has improved the country's rating, fiscal order is kept, and inflation keeps going down. Argentinian companies and sovereigns have been issuing dollars in foreign markets, rates are lower, and export taxes are lower. Those are all positive developments that should start to have an effect on activity soon. We are a bit anxious about timing, but lower rates and lower inflation in the coming months and quarters should be very good for short-term activity. For retail origination, we are giving loans at much lower expense than a year ago to our best customers, and these loans are proving to behave better. With time, we will be more comfortable increasing origination. We are not in a hurry. We have been growing fast the past two years and have gained relevance in the financial system—we are #2 in market share in private loans; we were #4 three or four years ago, and we achieved that without acquiring another entity. We are confident we are on the right path.
This concludes today's question and answer. I would now like to hand the floor back to BBVA's team for closing remarks.
Okay. Thanks. I want to thank you again for joining. We are really pleased with how BBVA has been able to carry out our strategy in a context that has not been ideal in the last three quarters and especially having been able to make the necessary tactical amendments to our strategy. We have been able to keep our growth strategy; as I said, we have shown for the second quarter in a row a sequential improvement in our net income, though we are still very far from what we think is our potential. We remain very focused and confident that with all the reforms taking place in the country and the better financial conditions that we are starting to see this quarter, we should soon be able to resume growth and keep this path of improvement in our financial performance. So that's all, and thanks again for joining.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.