管理層發言
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing +1 (888) 660-6343 or +1 (646) 517-4150 and entering passcode 944000. At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping.
Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Second Quarter 2026 earnings call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.
Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the Second Quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And now I will turn the call back to Gernot.
Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on slide 3. First, I will give you a brief overview of our second quarter highlights, and how we are executing on our capital allocation policy. I will then hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Now, turning to Slide 4, covering our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong quarter for Ardmore. Adjusted earnings were $48.3 million or $1.18 per share. Market conditions remained positive throughout the second quarter and into the third. In addition to long-term sectoral trends, the continued disruption in the Middle East is driving higher refining margins and long-haul volumes, boosting product tanker TCE rates. We are declaring a dividend of €0.79 per share in line with our policy of paying out two-thirds of adjusted earnings. And as announced during the quarter, we exercised options on two additional Handysize tanker newbuildings, at the same terms as agreed at the start of the year, taking our total order to four vessels with deliveries beginning in late 2028. Now turning to Slide 5, where we highlight our TCE performance. Our second quarter TCE reflects favorable market conditions, and rates in the third quarter remain well above seasonal levels. Our MR tankers earned $51.9 thousand per day for the second quarter. So far in the third quarter, with 45% booked, MRs earned $29.6 thousand per day, which represents a year-over-year uplift of 20%. Our chemical tankers earned $26.9 thousand per day for the second quarter. So far in the third quarter, with 50% booked, chemical tankers earned $25 thousand per day, which represents a year-over-year increase of 10%. To put things in perspective, current MR rates are therefore at levels nearly three times our operating cash breakeven of $10.8 thousand per day. Moving to Slide 6, we highlight our capital allocation activity. We continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in the business. As mentioned, we contracted two additional Handysize product and chemical tanker newbuildings, bringing our total order to four vessels with options for an additional two. These highly flexible assets are capable of carrying the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils, and other liquids. All fully consistent with our long-term commercial strategy and organizational capability. We are declaring our 15th consecutive quarterly dividend representing a yield of approximately 20%, reflecting the doubling of our payout level as introduced earlier this year. Our operating cash breakeven remains at a low $10.8 thousand per day, providing us with considerable financial flexibility across all market conditions. With that, I would like to hand over to Bart to cover the market outlook.
Thanks, Gernot. Turning first to the market, starting with Slide 8. Product tanker markets were exceptionally strong throughout the second quarter and have remained very firm into the third, with positive underlying fundamentals amplified by the continued disruption in the Middle East. Refining margins remain elevated and benchmark crack spreads reached nearly $70 per barrel, the highest level on record. As a result, Atlantic refinery utilization is running at multiyear highs, and correspondingly U.S. Gulf clean product exports are at historical highs, as shown in the chart on the upper right, with cargoes continuing to travel much longer distances. The map in the bottom right demonstrates how replacement cargoes now need to be sourced over longer-haul routes. In addition, the Panama Canal Authority is closely monitoring water levels. Further cuts to canal throughput could provide an additional tailwind for ton-mile demand. Moving to Slide 9. Refined product inventories have declined by nearly 100 million barrels since March. Looking ahead, this creates a need for a meaningful restocking cycle, adding an additional layer of demand on top of actual consumption. Higher oil volumes are anticipated to boost refinery throughput and support an extended period of elevated trading activity as inventories are replenished. The IEA projects significant expansion of oil supply in 2027 as non-OPEC production continues to grow, and energy security remains a key priority. With inventories likely to be replenished to an even higher level, this would support sustained firm demand for product tankers well beyond current disruption. Moving to Slide 10 and the impact of the Russian diesel export ban: as a result of domestic refinery outages and growing fuel shortages earlier this month, Russia imposed a full ban on diesel exports. Russian clean product exports continue to decline accordingly, as shown in the bottom left chart. Displaced buyers are sourcing replacement cargoes from elsewhere, boosting demand for the compliant fleet in an already tight market. For example, Brazilian importers are replacing Russian supply, reducing reliance on sanctioned vessels and benefiting the mainstream fleet. Turning to Slide 11 and long-term demand fundamentals: as we have emphasized, energy security remains a growing priority for governments worldwide. Diversification of import sources and the securing of seaborne supply chains are reinforcing long-term demand for product tankers. The structural shifts in refining capacity continue in parallel. Expansion is concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, while closures persist in Europe and the United States. This ongoing dislocation between refining hubs and major points of consumption continues to drive ton-mile demand. Furthermore, the energy transition is proceeding at a slower pace than previously anticipated. The IEA now forecasts oil demand growth through 2050. These structural dynamics underpin a constructive long term outlook in addition to the supportive near-term dynamics we discussed. Moving to Slide 12 for the supply picture. As we have pointed out in the past, the MR fleet is the oldest it has been in decades. As the chart on the left illustrates, the average age of the fleet is nearly 14 years old, the highest this century, while the MR order book represents just 16% of the existing fleet. If we examine the Handysize order book, it stands at just 6% with an even higher average fleet age of 18 years. Moving to the chart on the right, within the next five years, half of all MRs will be over 20 years old and approaching the scrapping stage. This is more than three times the size of the current order book, and the dynamics in the Handysize market are even more favorable. As a reminder, even if older vessels are not immediately scrapped in a strong market, their utilization levels decline materially as they age past 20 years. With that, I would like to shift to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we highlight our continued focus on financial strength. Ardmore's balance sheet remains robust. Effective leverage is a modest 24% inclusive of our forward newbuilding CapEx. Our low operating cash breakeven of $10.8 thousand per day, or $11.7 thousand per day including pro rata drydock CapEx, gives us significant financial flexibility. We have nearly $300 million of undrawn revolving debt capacity providing ample coverage for our newbuilding commitments, with access to a wide range of additional financing options as well. As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing TCE performance, closely managing costs, and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Turning to Slide 15 for financial highlights: for the second quarter, we are reporting EBITDA of $61.1 million and, as mentioned earlier, earnings per share of $1.18. We continue to frame EBITDA as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. A full reconciliation is provided in the appendix alongside our third quarter guidance figures. Importantly, our strong operating leverage positions Ardmore to capture market volatility. Every $10 thousand/day increase in TCE rates translates to nearly $2 per share in additional annual earnings per share. Moving to Slide 16 for operational highlights: as a reminder, we have no planned drydockings this year and limited activity through 2027. Existing fleet CapEx for the balance of 2026 is estimated at only $3 million. On the innovation front, we are harnessing AI and digitalization across our fleet, now including real-time propulsion automation. With that, I am happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.
Thank you, Bart. Wrapping up then with slide 18, our fleet is performing extremely well. We are capturing TCE rates at multiples of our cash breakeven. The market backdrop remains highly supportive as we discussed, driven by long-term fundamentals as well as more immediate market forces. We continue to take a disciplined and deliberate approach to capital allocation, distributing two-thirds of earnings while executing on targeted and measured growth. Our decisions are and will be guided by our long-term strategy, strong corporate governance, and our commitment to create value across market cycles. And with that, we now welcome your questions. Thank you.
分析師問答
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. You will hear a prompt when your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press * followed by 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. First question comes from Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, Gernot and Bart. Thank you for the update. Just a couple of questions from my end, and maybe just first the Handysize options. You have the four newbuildings now on order after exercising those two options. Gearing at the company overall remains, I would say, quite low, and you are back to being in that net cash territory. As you look forward, it seems that just the way this market is coming in, as you just said at the end of your comments, Gernot, that you are bringing in revenues at multiples of your breakeven. It looks like you are going to continue to be in this net cash territory or at least you are on pace for that. How do you think about fleet expansion from here? You have those two options. Again on the Handysize, what is the thought on exercising those? Is there a time when those have to be exercised? And then just in general, how are you thinking about further expansion?
Yeah, good morning, Omar. Great question. Thank you. Definitely, we do like the ships that we have ordered. We like the design. We also see value in the prices we agreed and, of course, we do like the optionality that they provide. Options are options, so we will continue to assess the economic rationale. They are declarable later this summer. Why do we like them? Well, the fundamental backdrop we believe is quite positive and of how these assets in particular fit into this. If you think about what we discussed here, we are tracking long-term oil demand growth. Investment in fossil energy has been consistently on the rise since that dip we saw during COVID, and it looks like we also have the oil supply to really match it. Adding to that is the theme around energy security, which creates a whole different set of needs, benefiting the whole energy oil supply chain and tankers included. But it is not just about fossil fuels when you think about energy security, because diversification of energy sources becomes very much part of that theme of supply chain resilience, which I think is top of the agenda for enterprise and state actors alike. So these particular assets really provide us maximum optionality, not just in their near-term trading performance because they are so versatile and can optimize TCE performance, but they give us a wide range of strategic directions—whether it is mainstream refined oil products, whether it is crude oil and dirty products, certainly a wide range of chemical products, edible oils, and other liquids as well. There are liquid markets for all of these, and the Handysize market, of course, is quite liquid itself. It is a good size and there is a high degree of overlap with what we are doing on the MRs as well, so a broader trading footprint is possible under our commercial strategy. So that is the strategic rationale and the fundamental and market outlook rationale. Then when it comes to capital allocation, it very neatly fits into how we continue to balance the rationale to reinvest in the business, to embrace opportunities for selective and well-measured growth, while at the same time returning capital to shareholders and maintaining responsible debt levels. That, of course, is something we continue to review dynamically. Last year, around this time, we saw a lot of value in secondhand vessels when values had dropped significantly and we acted on those very decisively. Those would have appreciated by 30–35% in value since and are happily trading in our fleet. At the start of this year, we also saw an opportune time to invest on a more forward-looking basis, committing to this set of four newbuildings with options that we will continue to assess as we move along.
Okay. Yeah. Thanks, Gernot, for that detail. And maybe just one another question, and then I will turn it back. It is a bit more on the market. You mentioned in your answer just now a bit of the diversification that we are seeing in sources of oil. How are you seeing things develop here? Obviously, it's been a very volatile year. The Strait of Hormuz closed, it reopened, and now it is potentially closed again. You have the Red Sea as a potential risk for transit, which had already been there but maybe a bit more heightened now. Have you seen any sort of immediate response in the product market as to the latest developments on the geopolitical front? And then also, how do you think about where MR rates can be as we move forward over the next few months?
I believe you are touching on a great point here, where markets continue to be very much in motion and probably more than we can really verbalize in a presentation like this. The status quo is that there is no status quo, and even the events of the last 24 hours, days, and weeks always trigger reactions in the underlying commodity pricing for oil and oil products. Relative price points create regional arbitrage and arbitrage within the system, and we certainly have seen freight react as well. An important point to make is that there is a lot going on beyond the Middle East as well. Of course, there are the long-term fundamentals that we discussed here, not just on the demand side but also on the supply side. U.S. Gulf refineries are cranking out product at record levels and refining margins are really high. At the same time, I think the situation with the Panama Canal is somewhat overlooked, whereby we have already had some initial signals from the Panama Canal Authority that they might actually interrupt some transits. No, that has not happened yet. Speaking with market participants recently, we continue to see really low rainfall from August through October. If there is going to be a strong El Niño, this will play out on a forward basis: entering the traditional dry season in January with already low water levels, this is likely to kick in in Q2 2027. I believe there is a multitude of factors that can continue to drive volatility in freight to a wide range of outcomes. So yes — many moving parts and continued volatility.
Great. Well, thank you, Gernot. I will pass it back. Thanks.
Please press 1 now. We have no further questions. This does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and at this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.