管理層發言
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Agi's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Felipe Gaspar Oliveira, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good afternoon. With me today are Marciano Testa, our Founder, Chairman and CEO; and Marcello Winik Dubeux, Chief Financial Officer. Throughout this conference call, we will be presenting non-IFRS financial information. These are important financial measures for Agi, but are not financial measures as defined by IFRS and may not be comparable to similar measures from other companies. Reconciliations of the non-IFRS to the IFRS financial information are available in the earnings press release. Unless noted otherwise, all figures are presented in Brazilian reais. I would also like to remind everyone that today's discussion might include forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future performance, and therefore you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties and could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in the earnings release. I will now hand over the call to Marciano.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. During today's call, I will walk you through our strategic progress. Following my remarks, our CFO, Marcello Dubeux; and our Head of Investor Relations, Felipe Gaspar, will take you through the financials in more detail and then host the Q&A session. We had a solid start to 2026, and we are pleased to share our first quarter results with you. So before going into details, I would like to remind you of the three principles I mentioned in our last earnings call, which are guiding our execution. First, we live for the customers with a clear focus on driving engagement on our hybrid platform and increasing the usage of multiple products. We showed strong progress in the first quarter with total active clients growing more than 50% year-over-year to over 7 million. At the same time, product penetration continued to evolve with customers who have a primary relationship with us using on average more than six products, rising to above seven products among our most mature cohorts, underscoring the cross-selling opportunity within our model and validating our high-touch relationship strategy. Over time, we aspire to become the primary financial institution for all our customers, delivering a growing range of financial solutions to support them across different areas, reinforcing the consistent execution of our long-term strategy. The second principle is enhancing our platform. Before going into the numbers, let me start with an important structural evolution of our company. This quarter marks a key step in how we are building Agibank for scale. We have evolved into a business-unit-driven organization where each vertical owns the full customer journey from origination to servicing. At the same time, we have centralized risk management, data and artificial intelligence across the platform. This is not just an organizational change. It's a structural upgrade in our business architecture. It allows us to combine agility at the business level with consistency and control at the platform level. As a result, we are improving decision-making speed, reducing cost to serve and reinforcing our ability to scale efficiently. This model is a key enabler of our profitability and one of the reasons we believe Agi is a structural differentiator and continues to strengthen its position in the market. Finally, the third principle: an entrepreneurial culture focused on long-term returns. This quarter clearly demonstrates the resilience of our business model. After the temporary disruption in the payroll credit ecosystem, we saw a consistent recovery through the quarter. By March, our credit origination had already reached 106% of pre-suspension levels. Also in March, we observed a clear inflection point in our fee business with a strong recovery following the adjustments implemented earlier in the year. These were very important signs that show that demand remains strong, that our distribution model is responsive and that our operational execution was efficient even under stress. In simple terms, the disruption was only temporary, but our recovery is structural. This reinforces our conviction that our long-term thesis remains fully intact. Summarizing the first quarter of 2026, we demonstrated a resilient business model capable of navigating short-term volatility, and we also delivered important improvements supported by a scalable platform and our new organizational structure and technology foundation. We continue to operate in the largest and underserved market where structural demand remains strong, especially in payroll lending. We are resilient, we have scalability and a structural advantage in this market. Finally, we always operate at the intersection of technology, data and artificial intelligence combined with human interaction, serving a population that is not naturally tech-savvy. This position remains a competitive advantage for the long term. With that, I will now turn it over to Marcello and Felipe, who will walk you through the financial performance in more detail and host the Q&A section.
Thank you, Marciano, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that we had a solid start to 2026, which demonstrates the strength of our unique hybrid business model. In the first quarter, we continued to execute against our core strategic priorities: growing our client base in Brazil with a focus on multiproduct relationships, expanding our market leadership in the payroll credit segment through new product releases and integrations, and maintaining our status among Brazil's most efficient and trusted financial institutions. Taking a closer look at customer growth, as seen on Slide 9, total active customer count increased 53% in the first quarter compared to the prior year period and 5% quarter-over-quarter. We exited the quarter with 7.1 million active customers, which we define as those using at least one product at quarter end. That growth demonstrates the resilience of our thesis, as earlier explained by Marciano. Turning to our credit portfolio on Slide 10, total loan balances grew 30% year-over-year in first quarter 2026 to BRL 35.5 billion. Our credit portfolio maintains a healthy mix with secured loans representing 87% of total or BRL 30.7 billion and unsecured loans representing 13% or BRL 4.8 billion. We believe this mix brings a sustainable balance of profitability, credit quality and focus on long-term relationships with our clients. In private payroll credit, an offering that completed one year in the first quarter following its March 2025 launch, our portfolio reached BRL 1 billion. It is worth mentioning that our appetite for production of this product remains strong after making enhancements to its credit model. For public payroll credit, a growth lever in our credit portfolio that brings our business model to municipalities and regions where the footprint of the traditional banking system continues to be less accessible, Agi finished the first quarter stable at BRL 0.3 billion. Unsecured lending, restricted to account holders who maintain primary relationships and direct deposit arrangements with Agi, which mitigates default exposure while improving margins, expanded 4.8% year-over-year to BRL 4.7 billion in this quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, we see a slight sequential decrease following the suspensions. However, we saw in the first quarter an increase in the number of clients with principalities surpassing the number of 1.4 million clients. Within INSS payroll credit, we continue to successfully execute against our strategy of being the disruptor of this segment in Brazil, as you can see on Slide 11. Based on our strong positioning with the INSS and leveraging our competitive advantages in this segment, our market share in Q1 was 9%, an increase of 210 basis points year-over-year. It is worth mentioning that we were able to maintain our market share levels even though there were recent periods of regulatory volatility. With regards to credit quality on Slide 12, nonperforming loans exceeding 90 days declined slightly in the first quarter to 3.6%, reflecting normalization in defaulting cohorts. At quarter end, NPLs for the overall portfolio remained comfortably below the average for consumer credit in Brazil, which continues to trend up. The coverage ratio measured by provisions over NPLs over 90 days was 165% at the end of March, a level we consider comfortable to operate going forward. Turning now to our revenue on Slide 13, in the first quarter we delivered total revenue of BRL 3 billion, an increase of 24% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter, even considering the disruptions in the period. On Slide 14, we see net interest income growth of 9% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter to BRL 1.3 billion. The slight decline in NIM on an LTM basis is primarily due to asset mix with a lower contribution from personal loans in the credit portfolio and a higher allocation to other interest-bearing assets, which typically carry lower yields compared to loans. On Slide 15, we see net interest margin on an annualized and LTM basis. As you can see in the first chart, the annualized NIM was 12% and after provisions was 7.3%, expanding 50 basis points on a quarterly basis, suggesting that the portfolio is on a normalization path after the impacts of the suspensions. Moving to efficiency on Slide 16, which highlights the operating leverage embedded in our unique and highly scalable business model, our operating efficiency ratio, which we calculate as NII plus fee revenues divided by operating and personnel expenses, improved to 43.2% in the first quarter, down 250 basis points quarter-over-quarter, excluding nonrecurring events of 4Q 2025. Continuing down the income statement and to Slide 17, recurring net income in the first quarter reached BRL 186.5 million, an increase of 14.7% over the previous quarter, adjusted for nonrecurring effects primarily related to legal outcomes from civil contingencies, indicating that Agi's profitability improved quarter-over-quarter. Speaking briefly to our funding approach on Slide 18, as a regular debt issuer, Agi maintains established relationships within Brazil's credit markets, diversifying funding sources to support portfolio expansion. As a result, total deposits reached BRL 39.3 billion, an increase of 37% from the first quarter 2025. Institutional counterparties represented 55% of total funding, while retail sources came to a share of 45%. Moving to equity on Slide 19, equity increased 42% in March 2026 compared to December 2025, especially impacted by the IPO proceeds. Agi's consistently above-average ROE track record enables self-sustaining capital generation. Return on equity over the last 12 months was 26.1%, impacted by the proceeds of the IPO now being accounted for in the net equity. Lastly, as you can see on Slide 20, our capital adequacy ratio consolidated at the holding level stood at 19.3% in the first quarter with a Tier 1 capital ratio of 18.1%, reflecting proceeds from the IPO as well. Looking forward, we remain confident in Agi's long-term investment thesis, its execution capacity and its positioning to be a winner in this segment, addressing the financial needs of millions of Brazilians. On behalf of Agi, I would like to thank you all for your interest and support. And now we would like to open the call for the Q&A session. Thank you very much. Operator?
分析師問答
The first question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.
Congrats again on the IPO. I have two questions, if I can. First, just on the regulatory environment. We continue to see a lot of noise there. Last week, there was also TCU suspending INSS payroll loans. We spoke last week a little bit. But any update on that? What is the potential risk of that actually happening? Also, we saw that Desenrola 2.0, which came out yesterday, making some changes there, particularly for the credit card payroll, which could potentially impact you by reducing the percentage that you can borrow up against, although extending the duration. How do you think about those impacts and any other regulatory impacts to consider? Secondly, operationally, thanks for the chart on the monthly origination. That increase that you're seeing, does that also include the unsecured because I think that was the headwind this quarter? Are you seeing unsecured lending also picking up?
Thank you for the question. First of all, let's be clear that the TCU decision is not specific to Agi. We do not have a concern about the TCU decision on this matter given the ongoing dialogue among the government and regulatory bodies; it is under further review across government institutions. It became public today that the government appealed and suggested maintaining payroll credit working while suspending credit cards for a period to review the implementations suggested to INSS. In our view, a relevant portion of the points raised has already been identified and is being addressed by INSS, Dataprev and the financial system. For now, our operation remains fully operating as usual. If they decide to suspend credit cards for a while, we do not expect a material impact on origination. It is a small part of our credit portfolio and would not create structural impact to the business. We do not anticipate changes to the product fundamentals, demand dynamics, margin, or our risk profile, as the focus of the discussion is on training, controls and processes. From Agi's perspective, we have already implemented the majority of measures required in the TCU decision. Therefore, we do not expect a material operational impact, and at this point we do not see a material impact on margin or risk. We will continue to monitor developments closely. Regarding Desenrola, yesterday the federal government of Brazil initiated the new phase of the Desenrola program, aimed at reducing the debt-service ratio and household indebtedness across different credit products and segments of the financial system, designed especially for the low-income segment, where historically Brazil has had high DSR relative to income. In our case, we can capture opportunities across the customer's life cycle. Around 25% of the unsecured portfolio is eligible for benefits under the program; it's roughly BRL 1.2 billion. Specifically on the INSS side, we see a very positive measure to reduce the income commitment from 45% to 40%, with a planned reduction of 2 percentage points per year down to 30%. We are closely following the implementation details and believe we are well positioned to adapt quickly, leveraging our technology, data and capabilities. Structurally, this is positive over time because improved customer financial health should support better credit performance and portfolio quality and reduce long-term risk. The end of exclusive card-linked margin could allow the bank to grow more through payroll loans where we are specialized. As for unsecured personal loans, we could expect lower NPLs. Credit demand could also potentially increase as a result of the decrease in income commitment for INSS payroll. Cross-sell and penetration of fee products could theoretically increase given higher disposable income. Thank you. I will pass to Marcello to complement.
Tito, to complement and to answer your final part regarding unsecured loans: regarding Desenrola, our conclusion is that it contributes to a healthier credit portfolio and therefore allows us to optimize payroll credit on one side and to have more disposable income for the client to eventually generate more cross-sell and other credit product demand. Regarding unsecured loans, we see a normalization of origination, especially in March. The overall size of the unsecured portfolio still reduced 2% compared to the fourth quarter. That was mainly due to the short-term duration nature of this portfolio and the interruptions that we experienced during the period. But that reduction in origination is already covered in March. We see very healthy levels of unsecured production already.
The next question comes from Gustavo Schroden.
I have two questions as well. First, I'd like to explore with you the regulatory front regarding insurance brokerage. We saw a relevant decrease in the quarter, especially compared to last year. You showed recent trends and a monthly trend. We can see an improvement, but it is still running below last year. What actions has the bank adopted to control this and return to higher brokerage insurance revenues? I think it's important to understand how the bank is managing this evolution. Second, about net interest margin: we understand there was a mix impact in the quarter which can explain the reduction. But if you analyze a one-year period, net interest margin is declining even when you had relevant origination of unsecured loans. What is the trend for NIM in coming quarters? Should we continue to see NIM declining or is it close to normalization?
Thank you, Gustavo. Good to be talking to you. First, regarding insurance: as we showed in the presentation, in March we already saw a steep recovery in the product. The measures we took throughout the quarter include reshaping the user experience of the product so that we have full compliance with all potential norms going forward. That required us to take this product out of the market for a few days or weeks, which impacted production. But as we saw in March, it recovered its pace. Going forward, we expect this product to continue a gradual recovery to get back to its normal pace from last year. We have a very efficient bancassurance business and are confident this product will deliver over time. It is normal that it will pick up together with growth of our client base and the credit portfolio, which has been growing at a faster pace as of now, including in April, and we'll likely see that in the second quarter as well. Also, the Desenrola measures extending payroll credit from 96 to 108 months might have an impact on insurance production as well, which could be an upside in the short-to-medium term. Now talking about NIM. NIM is composed primarily by credit businesses: unsecured and secured loans. Short term, between 4Q and 1Q, we saw a larger proportion coming from unsecured revenues, which have lower yields and reduce NIM contribution. Over time, that is expected to normalize and pick up to earlier levels. Additionally, consider the Selic rate: when you compare Selic from 1Q 2025 to this quarter, it was on average 200 basis points higher, which clearly impacts NIM. We have a conservative approach to ALM, so every new vintage of credit locks new cost of funding. If Selic rises, margins can compress in the short term.
To complement Marcello, it's important to mention that in the first quarter, when we look at net interest margin annualized after provisions, we already saw a peak compared to the fourth quarter. That's a sign of stabilization in terms of margins. One more thing to consider historically is the mix between loans and treasury in interest-bearing assets declined in the past from around 90% to 82%, which was another headwind. As Marcello mentioned, we are now moving the mix back in favor of loans.
The next question comes from Ricardo Buchpiguel with BTG.
I have two questions. First, we saw a sharp reduction in personnel expenses this quarter and it would be interesting to see if there were any one-off impacts helping here? Can we assume OpEx is already at normalized levels going forward? Second, going back a bit on the recovery discussion: loan origination already has started to recover and secured loans have been recovering in March. Can you walk us through whether it makes sense to expect a resumption to positive year-over-year bottom-line growth already in Q2? I imagine the main variable still missing here will be fees to recover, but I'd like your overall thoughts.
Ricardo, nice to talk to you. In terms of OpEx on an LTM basis, it is at a normalized level. The specific drop in personnel expenses is seasonal, related to variable compensation that is compared to the performance of the business. It is similar to what we had in 1Q 2025. Summed across the last four quarters, OpEx is in line with the prior period. So we see OpEx at normalized levels already. Regarding your second question on net income resumption year-over-year in Q2, we are not providing guidance on net income or specific quarter-over-quarter indicators. What we can say is operations are clearly back in pace, and it is inevitable that in the short-to-medium term this will positively impact financials. We would expect a recovery to show up later in the year, especially in the second half.
The next question comes from Pedro Leduc with Itaú BBA.
A question on provision expenses for bad credit, around BRL 500 million this quarter. When I look at the breakdown in your financial statements, I note over BRL 800 million in write-offs this quarter and BRL 300 million in reversals of provisions that netted to BRL 500 million. But BRL 500 million then will compare to an NPL formation of north of BRL 800 million. So your coverage declined a lot. Help us understand what concentrated so many write-offs this first quarter? In one quarter you did basically all the write-offs you did in the entire last year. And then you reversed some provisions you had. How should we think about cost of risk in coming quarters?
Thank you, Pedro. This is a good opportunity to clarify the movements in provisions. The increase in write-offs is driven by a change in the timing threshold we use for write-offs. Previously it was 360 days, and we changed it to 270 days, in line with best market practices. This change is naturally offset by reversals of provisions because of accounting mechanics. That is why you see the write-offs and provision reversals netting as they do. This adjustment keeps cost of risk and NPL levels stable quarter-over-quarter and aligns portfolio dynamics more closely with accounting recognition on the balance sheet.
So you're writing off faster now across the total portfolio, not only personal loans. Should we also expect a slightly higher cost of risk? Help us think about that in the next quarters.
No, actually the change applies to the total portfolio, not specific products. To clarify, NPLs of payroll loans are more related to mortality, so this is just a timing normalization of write-offs from 360 to 270 days.
That's great, Felipe. If I may, a follow-up on the personnel expense line. You mentioned briefly there's a schedule of variable compensation. When I look relative to last quarter, your results grew — portfolio grew — and compensation then fell. Relative to last year I understand the drop, but was there any specific reversal in bonus or something this quarter in particular?
No, Pedro. This is different periods. Variable compensation is determined relative to full-year performance and KPIs. In 2025, we did not necessarily beat all internal budget estimates for variable compensation. There is no particular reversal or one-off tied to this quarter compared to fourth quarter; it is timing and seasonality tied to how variable compensation is accrued and paid.
Assuming you perform next quarter, this line goes up accordingly, right?
Probably.
The next question comes from Marcelo Mizrahi with Bradesco BBI.
I have a question regarding other liabilities or the partnership program liabilities. We can see a reduction on the balance sheet. Was there any specific impact on the expense side because of that adjustment on the balance sheet of liabilities?
This is related to the change in the company's nature after becoming a public company. When Agi was private, the partnership program had different rules and management could potentially sell their shares back to the company if they left. We recorded a liability provision for potential buybacks. As a public company, that option is not available; everything is settled at market. After discussions with auditors, we removed that liability from the balance sheet and the offset went into net equity. So there is no cash impact and no impact on the income statement.
Okay. So no cash impact and no impact on the income statement?
Zero.
One more follow-up regarding cost of risk. Does it make sense to believe the coverage ratio will be maintained at the same levels looking forward?
Yes, Marcelo. We see the levels of coverage achieved in the first quarter as healthy going forward.
The next question comes from Renato Meloni with Autonomous Research.
I wanted to follow up on your comments about Desenrola. If you can walk us through the impacts: if you maintain the same exposure to clients but reduce the portion tied to payroll, and compensate with unsecured lending, this could be beneficial in the medium term given yield differences. Of course there is also a difference in NPLs, but your risk-adjusted margin should start going up. Is that the right way to look at this? What is the pace here? Do you have to immediately reduce limits for lower-margin products or will this be done through renewals?
Renato, Marciano here. To start, in the short term we see a positive inflow in terms of increased disposable income because the income commitment reduction from 45% to 40% is positive for customers and increases inflows into checking accounts. This is healthy for our unsecured portfolio and makes us more confident to deploy more credit on the unsecured side. I will ask Marcello to complement on the pace and other elements.
Renato, in the medium to long term, we believe this is sustainable and aligned with our long-term positioning: long-term relationships with clients. Payroll loans are a relationship product for us. Having a client with more disposable income and healthier credit quality is a clear positive because we can monetize that relationship over time. Although NPLs might change mechanically with mix, we assess products based on loss absorption. As long as we can provide a credit product where the expected NII is 1.5 to 2x the cost of credit for us, we have appetite to grow it. The long-term effect is a healthier portfolio and positive impact for us.
The next question comes from Neha Agarwala with HSBC.
First, on private payroll origination: fourth quarter was a bit slow in terms of growth in the private payroll loan book, but in the first quarter we saw a pickup with 10% quarter-on-quarter growth. Initially origination was much faster. How do you see this product now? You mentioned on the last call taking a step back to look at older vintages and making changes. Should we expect a significant acceleration in coming quarters? Second, on asset quality: there was a big pickup in the fourth quarter, and 1Q saw a slight decline in the NPL ratio despite it typically being seasonally worse. Should we expect these improving levels to continue, or should we expect NPLs to increase as you increase the share of unsecured loans?
Neha, regarding private payroll, as we said in the fourth quarter we adopted a more cautious approach and made adjustments in the credit modeling. We proceeded with smaller vintages to observe behavior and became more comfortable, deciding to cautiously accelerate starting in March. March and April we produced on average north of BRL 200 million per month in the product, and that's the level we plan to maintain, given current conditions. That's why we saw an uptick in the private payroll portfolio in this quarter.
Neha, on asset quality: as discussed earlier, we see NPL levels remaining stable going forward due to the achieved mix. Short-term KPIs that reflect portfolio health — for example NPLs between 15 and 90 days and first payment default rates — have been improving. That gives us comfort regarding continued stabilization.
The next question came via Q&A from Rayna Kumar with Oppenheimer: Can you provide your outlook for net interest income, loan and net income growth in 2026? Is there any financial guidance you can provide based on most recent trends?
We are not providing formal guidance at this point.
The next question comes from Jamie Friedman with Susquehanna International Group.
On the regulatory changes at INSS, is this business as usual and should we be accustomed to it? Over the 10-plus years you've offered this product, how frequent are regulatory changes? Is there any certainty this will not chronically impact the company's business model?
Jamie, we do not see chronic impact to our business model. Structurally, this product has been fairly stable in Brazil over the last 20 years. Obviously, when governments change there can be adjustments to product rules and sometimes margin shifts, but we are able to adapt our models and continue to originate quickly and maintain origination pace. We are confident managing this risk. Regarding recent INSS changes, we are actually encouraged because the reduction of income commitment from 45% to 40% and then by 2 percentage points per year down to 30% is healthier for customers and for portfolio safety. We view it as a normal regulatory evolution in Brazil's market.
Jamie, on secured versus unsecured longer-term: going forward, our main products will continue to be payroll-based credit. We consider ourselves well positioned in the secured lending ecosystem in Brazil to keep growing and target surpassing BRL 100 billion in credit portfolio by the end of the decade. Today, 87% of our credit portfolio is secured. We expect this share to remain a pillar and potentially move slightly up to around 90% over time, with unsecured reaching about 10% of the credit portfolio in the long term. So no major shifts in mix are expected.
The next question comes from Henrique Navarro with Santander.
There was an audio gap in the original call.
Navarro had an audio issue and shared his question in parallel about market share in INSS origination versus portfolio. As we provide monthly evolution, in March our origination already surpassed the market share we had in the portfolio. We are seeing market share evolution and are back to growing, surpassing levels that we held in the portfolio. Thank you for the question. With that, I pass the floor to the operator to end the call.
Thank you all. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.