管理層發言
Good afternoon, and thank you for waiting. We would like to welcome everyone to Ambev's 2026 Second Quarter Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Carlos Lisboa, Ambev's CEO; and Mr. Guilherme Fleury, CFO and Investor Relations Officer. As a reminder, this conference presentation is available for download on our website, ri.ambev.com.br as well as through the webcast link. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the safe harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Ambev's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Ambev and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I would also like to remind everyone that, as usual, the percentage changes that will be discussed during today's call are both organic and normalized in nature and unless otherwise stated, percentage changes refer to comparison with 2025 second quarter results. Normalized figures refer to performance measures before exceptional items, which are either income or expenses that do not occur regularly as part of Ambev's normal activities. As normalized figures are non-GAAP measures, the company disclosed the consolidated profit, EPS, operating profit and EBITDA on a fully reported basis in the earnings release. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Carlos Lisboa. Mr. Lisboa, you may begin your conference.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter earnings call. Across our footprint, football is part of our culture, one of the strongest passion points that bring people together, and beer has a unique role in creating such special moments. I want to congratulate all the national teams from our markets that represented their countries in the FIFA World Cup. I also want to recognize our teams for their outstanding execution across Ambev's footprint. Moments like these are also where our company stands out. The World Cup is one of the toughest execution tests in our industry. The challenge goes beyond activating a campaign. It is about turning a tournament into a semester-long platform, activating a portfolio rather than a single brand and connecting consumers and customers across countries, channels and millions of points of sale while building engagement that lasts beyond the final whistle. Across our markets, our brands were among those most associated with the event. We did not just take part of the World Cup. We helped shape the category through it. While the World Cup has come to an end, our own game has only reached half time. Ambev's performance continued to strengthen in the second quarter with its quality and shape improving versus Q1. Volumes provided a much stronger contribution, growing 1.4% year-over-year with beer up mid-single digits. Disciplined revenue management and resource allocation supported net revenue growth of 6% and normalized EBITDA growth of 9%, even as we stepped up investment behind our brands. As a highlight, our normalized EPS grew 24%. Looking at the movie rather than the picture, the first half provides a broader view. Total volumes grew 0.7% with Beer volumes growing well ahead of the total. Net revenue grew 7%. Normalized EBITDA increased 10%, implying 1.3x operational leverage and normalized EPS also grew 10%. Operating cash flow reached BRL 8 billion, one of Ambev's highest first half levels. As we enter the second half, we are building a business with stronger foundations and designed to deliver compound profitable growth over time. Behind this progress is our 3-pillar growth strategy, starting with pillar one: lead and grow the category. This quarter, we advanced on both dimensions. On lead, we strengthened both brand equity and market share across our 5 largest markets. On grow, share gains and improving industry conditions support beer volume growth in markets that represent over 80% of our volumes. Mainstream continued to improve sequentially with volumes only slightly below last year. We continue to lead the high-growth segments with a broad and complementary portfolio. Premium remained a key growth engine, growing nearly 20%. Balanced Choices grew more than 60%. No Alcohol beer grew around 20%, and Flavored Beer and RTDs maintain momentum. Michelob Ultra shows how we scale a relevant consumer proposition across markets. It more than tripled in Brazil and Argentina during the quarter, grew over 50% across our footprint, and is now present in nearly all our markets, connecting with consumers seeking a more active and balanced lifestyle. This takes us to pillar two: digitize and monetize our ecosystem. Our digital ecosystem has become a key lever for category development. In an increasingly dynamic environment, a broader portfolio creates greater complexity. These capabilities enable us to manage that complexity with greater precision, strengthening the core while accelerating the new engines of category growth. It is not just a technical backbone, but an execution powerhouse that creates efficiencies and improves how we operate every day. We read demand faster and more accurately, help customers increase sell-out through better recommendations and allocate resources to the highest return opportunities. This strengthens our performance while helping our partners grow, as reflected in the continued improvement in our NPS. Ambev's Bees Marketplace GMV grew around 60% in both the second quarter and in the first half. In the first half, gross margin expanded 6.7 percentage points year-over-year, reaching 22%. In Brazil, Marketplace GMV doubled in the first half, with third-party sellers as the main driver. And on pillar three: optimize our business. This pillar creates the flexibility to deliver on both of our capital allocation priorities: investing behind opportunities that drive long-term growth while consistently returning excess cash to shareholders. In the quarter, we stepped up investments behind our brands, while expanding normalized EBITDA margin by 80 basis points. That discipline, together with solid cash generation, allowed us to advance our share buyback program and announce an additional IOC distribution this quarter. Together, the 3 pillars reinforce one another, creating a flywheel that strengthens the company and supports sustainable profitable growth. Before moving to our key markets, let me highlight the breadth of our performance. In both the second quarter and the first half, beer volumes grew or remained broadly stable in 7 of our 10 largest markets, while net revenue and EBITDA grew across all business units, showcasing that our progress was not dependent on any single market or growth lever. Starting with Brazil beer. Continued commercial momentum supported another solid quarter. The beer industry continued to improve sequentially. According to Nielsen, sellout improved from a high single-digit decline in the second half of 2025 and mid-single-digit decline in the first quarter to a slight decline in Q2. Nielsen's measurement calendar ended around June 20, capturing only the early part of the World Cup period. Extending the analysis through month end and across our broader coverage, we estimate that the industry was slightly positive in the quarter. The World Cup created incremental demand across channels and regions. Nevertheless, it was offset by adverse weather conditions. Average temperatures remained below last year and well below 2024. On a 2-year comparison, our industry modeling indicates that adverse weather accounts for the full industry volume gap versus 2024. Even so, our consumer tracking shows sequential improvement in category equity and participation, reinforcing our confidence in the category's resilience in a dynamic consumer and macroeconomic environment. Through that, our business continued to outperform. Market share expanded year-over-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, consolidating the commercial momentum of our business in Brazil. We estimate that our share increased across mainstream, premium, balanced choices and beyond beer. Brand equity continued to grow, while price relativity remained broadly stable versus last year. This quarter marked 1 full year since we regained leadership in premium with our share of the segment reaching an all-time high. Premium grew in the mid-20s and reached approximately 25% of our beer volumes. This performance reflects our new premium architecture, with each brand anchored to distinct consumer need states: Original for authenticity and simplicity; Stella Artois for quiet luxury; Corona for the outdoors and natural living; and Michelob Ultra for an active and balanced lifestyle. The recent announcement of Spaten Pro takes this architecture into a new space, combining premium credentials with zero alcohol and 10 grams of protein to expand Balanced Choices into new occasions. Balanced Choices volumes doubled versus last year, while No Alcohol grew in the 30s. Mainstream was broadly stable, delivering a significant improvement from a mid-single-digit decline in the first quarter. Together, improving industry conditions and market share progression supported 5% beer volume growth. Serving this portfolio across more than 1 million points of sale requires precision at scale. Our digital ecosystem provides that capability. Through this, we improved assortment, placed the right SKUs in each outlet and activated our World Cup platform nationwide. Beer distribution grew more than 6%, with returnable bottles up over 4% and premium over 20%. On the consumer side, Ze delivered GMV grew 16% versus last year, while orders more than doubled on the Brazilian national team match days. Ze also gives us a real-time view of where the category is heading. Premium already represents 35% of beer volumes on the platform, while Balanced Choices reached approximately 7%, nearly twice the weight in Brazil beer. This combination translated into net revenue growth of 9%, EBITDA growth of 13%, and 110 basis points of margin expansion, while we continue to invest behind our brands. In Brazil NAB, sequential improvement, although the job is not done yet. The recovery has taken longer than expected, and volumes declined 4.4% in the quarter. Around 30% of the decline reflected our decision to phase out volumes from a lower return channel. Adjusting for this decision, volume performance improved versus the first quarter. By the end of the first half, we had also cycled the toughest comparison base of the year. Market share progressed sequentially, approaching historical levels by the quarter-end as price productivity pressures ease. Throughout the period, we continued investing behind our brands to regain momentum while maintaining disciplined revenue management and protecting profitability. As a result, Brazil NAB delivered double-digit EBITDA growth with more than 300 basis points of margin expansion in both the quarter and the first half. And lastly, we had two distinct realities within this quarter. In Bolivia, temporary social unrest and road blockage disrupted mobility and logistics for much of the period, leading to a double-digit volume decline. The situation has since normalized and our operations are running normally. Argentina, by contrast, was a highlight. Our beer volumes grew low single digit, lapping growth in the same quarter last year, supported mainly by continued market share momentum and improving industry conditions and the national team's World Cup performance. Premium grew high single digits, led by Stella Artois and Corona. Balanced Choices reached a mid-single-digit mix of our beer volumes, supported by the launch of Michelob Ultra and Stella Pure Gold. Mainstream was broadly stable with Quilmes strengthening brand equity and mainstream share. This is the same category development playbook we are executing in Brazil, scaling Premium and developing Balanced Choices while continuing to strengthen Mainstream. In the Dominican Republic, our business delivered mid-single digits volume growth in the quarter despite the adverse weather conditions in April. The consumption environment remained constructive, supported by a favorable macro backdrop and healthy price relativity versus other alcoholic beverages. Beer continued to gain share within alcoholic beverage, and our volumes grew high single digits in the first half. Premium grew more than 40%, led by Corona and Michelob Ultra, while Mainstream grew low single digits, supported by Presidente and The One in the first half. Presidente's brand equity remains strong, reinforcing its leadership and cultural connection with Dominican consumers. Finally, in Canada, we continue to outperform in a dynamic environment. The beer industry declined low single digit as unfavorable weather and softer consumer demand weighed on performance. Trends, nevertheless, improved from the first quarter, supported by FIFA World Cup occasions. We gained market share in both Beer and Beyond Beer. Within Beer, Michelob Ultra continued to lead the development of Balanced Choices, while Busch strengthened our Mainstream performance. In Beyond Beer, mixes and flavored water remain important growth drivers. As a result, Canada delivered low single-digit top line growth alongside low to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and margin expansion in both the quarter and the first half. With that, I will now turn it over to Fleury for the financial highlights.
Thank you, Lisboa. Hello, and good afternoon, everyone. As we close the first half of the year, our financial performance reflects the mindset that has guided us over the past quarters: to create value through disciplined resource allocation, focusing on what we can control. In the first half of 2026, we delivered 9.6% normalized EBITDA growth with margin expansion across all of our business units, as well as 10.1% growth in normalized net income. Stated EBITDA grew 2.5% and stated net income increased by 11.6% in the period. From a cash flow perspective, our first half performance allows us to continue executing our capital allocation priorities of investing in the organic growth of our business while also returning excess cash to shareholders over time. The first half performance was supported by another quarter of consistent execution of our growth strategy. Now let me walk you through the second quarter highlights. Starting with operating performance. Normalized EBITDA grew 8.9% in the period, reaching BRL 6.4 billion, with 80 basis points of margin expansion. This reflects disciplined decisions across cost, expenses and revenue management, allowing us to expand both gross margin and EBITDA margin while stepping up investments behind our brands during the FIFA World Cup. Consolidated cash COGS per hectoliter, excluding Marketplace, increased by 2.2% in the period, supported by continued productivity and operational efficiencies across our footprint. Here, it is worth noting that in the first half of the year, Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter, excluding Marketplace products, increased by 9.7%, while our full year guidance remains unchanged at between 4.5% and 7.5%. Consolidated cash SG&A grew by 10.7% in the quarter, mainly driven by higher sales and marketing expenses, reflecting a portion of brand activations during the FIFA World Cup. As we mentioned during our first quarter earnings call, these expenses tend to follow the timing of our mega events calendar and Q2 reflected that. Distribution expenses also increased in the period, mostly due to volume performance as well as one-off expenses in logistics as part of restructuring initiatives in Argentina. Taken together, these results illustrate how we think about resource allocation. Our cost PMO initiative that started last year is based on a continuous improvement mindset together with choices to focus on growing return on invested capital, ultimately, freeing up resources to reinvest in our strategic priorities and pursue our ambition of delivering consolidated margin expansion over time. On administrative expenses, it is important to remember that the effect of lower volumes in 2025 impacted our bonus accruals in the second half of last year, creating a potentially tougher comparison base going forward. Now moving to below EBITDA lines. Net financial expenses totaled BRL 486 million in the quarter, a 50% reduction versus the same period of last year, mainly explained by two positive noncash factors in the nonderivative instruments line. First, in Bolivia, following an approximately 40% devaluation of the local currency in late June, we had a positive effect coming from the conversion of hard currency held in the company. These reserves were due to secure liquidity to meet the expected foreign currency obligations, including payments to certain suppliers and dividend remittances. Second, a positive effect that came from other markets where local currencies were more stable during the quarter, resulting in lower conversion losses on monetary balances compared to last year. On the Bolivar devaluation, it is worth noting that our consolidated income statement reflects average monthly FX rates as required under the applicable accounting standards. As a result, going forward, the local currency devaluation is expected to gradually create a negative translation impact on our financial and operational results. Turning to income taxes. Our consolidated effective tax rate in the quarter was 19.9%, compared to 18.4% in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting country mix effects over higher earnings before taxes, partially offset by regular income tax attributes. In the first 6 months of the year, our ETR was 20.6%, broadly in line with the 20.3% recorded in the first half of 2025. As a result, both normalized and stated net income reached about BRL 3.5 billion, increasing 23.3% and 24.5%, respectively, versus last year. Normalized and stated earnings per share reached BRL 0.22, representing, respectively, a 24.2% and 25.4% increase versus last year. Now turning to cash flow generation. Let's go beyond the quarter and look at our performance in the first half of the year. Cash flow from operating activities totaled BRL 7.9 billion, an increase of BRL 3.6 billion, representing over 80% improvement versus the same period of last year. This was mainly driven by higher EBITDA and improved working capital dynamics, with payables reflecting our volume performance. Cash flow used in investing activities totaled BRL 3.3 billion, BRL 1.5 billion higher than in the first half of 2025, primarily reflecting the deconsolidation of assets previously reported as restricted cash in CAC as disclosed in our first quarter's financial statement, partially offset by lower CapEx investments. It is important to note that we continue to invest with discipline in our operations, balancing brewery upgrades, capacity expansion, innovation capabilities, the expansion of our commercial assets base and our technology infrastructure, all aimed at supporting long-term value creation. Cash flow used in financing activities totaled BRL 5.7 billion, BRL 7.1 billion below last year, mainly explained by our BRL 6.7 billion 2024 dividend payout in early 2025. This cash flow performance supported our shareholders' agenda already demonstrated this year through, one, the execution of approximately 95% of our 208 million share buyback program announced in October last year, representing roughly BRL 3.2 billion cash disbursement until July. Two, the BRL 4.2 billion 2025 IOC payment announcements before withholding tax to be fully paid by October 6. And three, the 2026 IOC declarations of BRL 1.8 billion made so far this year before withholding tax to be paid by December. Altogether, such events represent BRL 5.9 billion returned to our shareholders on a pre-tax cash basis as announced until the date of this report. Now back to you, Lisboa.
Thank you, Fleury. Let me close with these three messages. First, our first half performance reinforced our conviction in the category: it is profitable and growing in the majority of our markets with healthy fundamentals. Its cultural relevance and versatility allows us to serve a broad range of consumers, need states and occasions, giving the category meaningful room to grow. Second, as category captain, our role is to bridge the gap between beer's potential and actual consumption. We have what it takes to do that: a proven growth formula built around our 3-pillar strategy and being deployed across our footprint through replicable models. And third, the flywheel is in motion and gaining momentum. We closed the first half, we posted volume growth, high single-digit net revenue growth, almost double-digit normalized EBITDA growth with margin expansion and double-digit normalized EPS growth. Solid operating cash flow supported continued shareholder returns. The consistency of this performance gives us confidence as we build on this progress in the second half. Before I finish, I want to thank our teams and business partners across all markets for their ownership, resilience and commitment, and for continuing to dream big to create a future with more shares. Thank you very much for joining us today. And with that, let me hand it over to the operator.
分析師問答
Our first question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.
I'd like to zoom in on Brazil NAB and on the minus 4.4% volume growth. Thank you for confirming that 30% of that decline was from the channel phaseout. So am I correct in assuming that that channel phaseout will continue to be a headwind year-on-year for the next 3 quarters? And then putting that to one side, can you share with us how the underlying soft drinks market did, so that we can get a sense of that underperformance that you mentioned? And how are you thinking about that segment in the second half of the year?
Nadine, Lisboa here. You already mentioned the phaseout. Let me complement that point with the following. First, the NAB industry in the first semester of this year posted recovery, but we couldn't leverage that much because the recovery for us took longer than expected, as we focused on correcting the commercial course — price relativity, market share performance and volume performance — without compromising the health of the P&L of our business unit. I'm glad that we closed the second quarter very much in line with our expectations. It took longer, but now we are very close, because we corrected the price relativity while protecting net revenue per hectoliter performance in the quarter. Second, market share got pretty much in line with historical levels by the end of the quarter. Third, as a consequence, we saw our volumes improving within this period. When we look forward, it's important to remember that last year we had two different halves of the year, which means that we just cycled through the most difficult comparison base for us volume-wise and share-wise. Moving forward, we expect a better context to navigate with the recovery on top of the recovery I just described. In terms of general health, I won't give guidance about the industry moving forward, but given what I just mentioned, we should expect a better situation for us in the NAB business in the second half of this year.
Nadine, Fleury here, if I can just complement Lisboa. Regarding whether the 30% adjustment will continue during the year, allow me to make two comments. That started as part of the resource allocation choices we've been making with Lisboa, thinking about profitability and channels. That is related to a specific fast-food channel that we've exited. Therefore, that will continue to lap throughout this year.
Our next question comes from Thiago Duarte with BTG.
Yes, my question is now moving to Beer Brazil. And it's really trying to clean up the figures a little bit considering the World Cup. So you already mentioned the additional impact that the World Cup had in sales and marketing as you try to activate the brands and everything. So if you could also extrapolate a little bit of that analysis into your top line for Brazil Beer, both in terms of what you think the volume contribution was and also in terms on whether the event may have had an impact in terms of your revenue per hectoliter or average pricing for the quarter? That would be my question.
Thiago, nice to talk to you again. Let me answer starting from the overall assessment of the event. It was positive and broadly in line with our expectations. For us it was a six-month platform activation across portfolio, channels, regions and countries, very different from one single brand campaign. It had a broad impact across the footprint, not only in Brazil but also in Argentina, Panama, Paraguay and Canada. Specifically about Brazil, we estimated the impact to be around 0.5 to 1 percentage point in industry growth for the quarter, which is in line with what we stated during our first quarter announcement. It was very interesting because we activated not only our core brands but also segments across our portfolio, from Core to Premium, including the introduction and acceleration of Michelob, the Balanced Choice portfolio and even Beyond Beer. In terms of volume performance for the quarter, we estimate that the industry was slightly positive, as I mentioned earlier. On top of that, we had broad-based share gains that largely explain the company's overall volume performance. Regarding net revenue per hectoliter, keep in mind the first quarter result was influenced by a strong carryover compared to prior year. The quarter reflected the combination of carryover, calendar implementation and mix. For the semester we delivered net revenue per hectoliter that increased around 6%, which is about 50% above inflation, with a good combination of rate in line with inflation and a mix contribution on top of that. I also emphasize that our net revenue strategy has two missions: protect profitability and protect the accessibility of our consumers to the category. That's the strategy we will keep for the remainder of the year.
And just one clarification from the statement you just made, Lisboa. You said you were already expecting some dilution from the net revenue per hectoliter into Q2. And I'm assuming that's because of the World Cup.
No. It's because of the carryover dilution from quarter 1 to quarter 2 and due to the comparison base against 2025. Keep in mind that in the second quarter last year is when we kicked off our net revenue agenda. That's why we also saw a temporary impact in market share that we recovered in Q3. That's the reason why we were expecting the dilution, not due to the World Cup.
Our next question comes from Carlos Laboy with HSBC.
Lisboa, I keep coming back to kind of a different variant of the same question as previous quarters. It seems that your brand strength indicators and market share indicators for Brahma and Skol in their respective regions of strength only, they've been moving in the right direction. The gaps you were trying to close have closed. Can you give us an update on that? That is the first question. And then the second question related to that is, do your Premium innovation efforts accrue a benefit to the quality image of your Mainstream brands? In other words, how do you know that what you're doing with Corona and the Michelob Ultra push that we just saw and the quality image of those brands is creating sort of a halo maybe over your Mainstream category or not?
Laboy, nice to talk to you, and a very interesting angle you bring to this discussion. I'm passionate about this topic because one big dream that we have at Ambev is exactly about reimagining the Beer category and what it can be. By doing so, our mission is to bridge this future category image and actual consumption across our portfolio. When you mentioned Premium, for sure Premium enhances the image of the category and creates a halo effect across segments. Whenever we do things with the Core and challenge the status quo, we also see a halo effect in other segments. Everything we are doing with Balanced Choices brings new attributes for the Beer category that make consumers see our category differently, better and stronger. That's how we perpetuate the relevance of the Beer category across our footprint. Regarding Skol, one of the key challenges is to develop new partitions of the category without compromising the core. We want to add on top and keep the foundation solid and healthy. That's how we bring more consumers to the category and expand drinking occasions while avoiding cannibalization. In the quarter, Mainstream was broadly stable in volume, an improvement versus last quarter. The performance is a consequence of our three core brands performing well. Skol, after several quarters with stable equity, delivered its first quarter with equity improvement. Within Ze, which I view as part of the future of Brazil as a digital channel, Skol was the core brand growing fastest, where we introduced the Skol 0.0 line extension from the mother brand; this line extension achieved 20% of No Alcohol beer mix. Altogether, what I like about the core performance is something we rarely discuss: from 2019 to today, the value segment in Brazil has halved from an industry standpoint, and that volume was captured by the Core. That is another reason why it's important to have more than one core brand. Brazil is very different regionally and our brands perform differently across the country. The complementarity of our mainstream portfolio today is a very important competitive advantage for Ambev.
Our next question comes from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan.
If I may, a question, a follow-up question on the net revenue per hectoliter and how to think about that line going to the second half. So Lisboa, you mentioned a few factors explaining that strong performance in the first half. When we look at the second half, especially when you compare year-over-year, is it fair to say that the delta year versus year should be larger in your Mainstream portfolio? Because if I'm not mistaken, this is where you guys had more trouble last year on the Mainstream. And this year, as you've been mentioning, things are back on track on brand equity. So my question is how does mix affect things? Should we see a higher delta year-over-year in the Mainstream and that obviously pushes your average prices down? Is it fair to say, or any sort of price actions expected for the second half? Should we still be aiming this sort of inflation-plus scenario for second half? That's the question I have.
Lucas, let me clarify the following. The main issue last year in the second half was not specifically Mainstream performance; it was the industry impact versus 2024 due to weather dynamics. In 2024, there was a weather phenomenon that impacted Brazil, and as a consequence 2024 was the peak of the industry in Brazil volume-wise. When weather changed in the second half of last year, that created the industry volume gap versus 2024. The Mainstream segment is highly correlated with industry performance because of its relevance in specific occasions like on-premise. That explains Mainstream's performance in the second half of last year. Everything we described about the second quarter and first half should be complemented with this information because we have just cycled through the toughest comparison against 2025, volume-wise. Now we are entering a different scenario. External weather forecasts do not indicate average temperatures more adverse than last year. This is an important consideration. On top of that, our share level has been stable since Q3 last year, with some improvements. That share performance is supported by a solid share performance across all segments. That should be the shape to expect for Ambev moving forward. We are confident about our portfolio momentum and we believe we have the most complete portfolio the company has ever had, which makes a huge difference together with execution capacity and our digital capabilities developed in prior years.
Our next question comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays.
I wanted to follow up a little bit on the volume ex FIFA World Cup implications. And clearly, you've just laid out within your commentary what were the issues in the second half of last year affecting obviously volume on a year-over-year basis. So as you look at the second half in terms of particularly Beer in Brazil volume cadence, just try to help us bridge maybe what we should expect given it's a relatively easy comp, but obviously, the World Cup is behind us. So how do you think about the performance of volume into the second half? And then obviously, moving into next year also with El Niño coming again, how much of a potential tailwind could that be?
Ben, I cannot provide industry volume guidance, but I can say the following. Comparisons versus 2025 are cycling a period when the industry declined mid to low single digit last year against 2024, and a semester when the industry declined high single digit against 2024. Drivers that historically impact the industry positively — legal drinking age population growth, employment and aggregate income — played the same role in the first half and should play a similar role in the second half. On the other hand, household debt levels continue to be elevated, which is a point of attention. Beer tends to be resilient in that scenario because it is an accessible beverage. Weather is difficult to predict; current external forecasts do not indicate more adverse average temperatures than last year. Regarding El Niño, we revisited consequences from 2024 and there are learnings. First priority is protecting people and supporting partners and communities. There will probably be extreme weather changes across the country and different impacts, so it's important to be ready and be part of the solution while protecting operations. Second, extreme weather conditions may affect agricultural commodities and logistics costs, so we are working closely with farmers and suppliers to be prepared. On the demand side, 2024 illustrated that warmer temperatures can influence industry demand, but these effects are unpredictable. We cannot rely on that. The only thing we can do is control what we can control, be prepared for a wide range of climate scenarios and continue to build a more resilient business.
And Ben, just one comment to reinforce what Lisboa said. If you go beyond the quarter, it's important to remember that we are confident about the industry's potential. Looking at external drivers for Brazil and most of our emerging markets, population growth and rising income per capita should play favorably going forward, as should per capita consumption. On our side, we can help expand the category through focused execution and by expanding the boundaries of our category. So we are confident in the demographics, the external drivers and in what we can do to expand the category going forward.
This concludes the Q&A session. I would like to invite Mr. Carlos Lisboa to proceed with his closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.
Before we close, let me share a personal reflection. This was my sixth quarter leading Ambev, and the environment, as we just discussed, has gradually steadied. I believe great companies are defined by what they do and deliver in periods like this. They usually sharpen their choices, strengthen capabilities and turn challenges into opportunities. I feel privileged to lead Ambev and to work alongside people whose talent and ownership make that possible. There is always more to do, but I believe Ambev is stronger today than when I began the journey as CEO. We are entering the second half confident in our strategy, energized by our momentum, and ready to capture the opportunities ahead and determined to keep building an even better company in the future. Thank you for joining us today.
This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect, and have a nice day.