All SOJC transcripts

SOUTHERN CO (SOJC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

71 segments

Prepared remarks

OperatorOperator

Good afternoon. My name is Diego, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Southern Company Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Greg MacLeod, Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Greg MacLeodDirector, Investor Relations

Thanks, Diego. Good afternoon, and welcome to The Southern Company's Third quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Womack, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southern Company; and David Poroch, Chief Financial Officer. Let me remind you that we will make forward-looking statements today in addition to providing historical information. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, including those discussed in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and subsequent securities filings. In addition, we will present non-GAAP financial information on this call. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measure are included in the financial information we released this morning as well as the slides for this conference call, which are both available on our Investor Relations website at investor.southerncompany.com. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Thank you, Greg, and good afternoon to everyone, and we thank you for joining us for today's update. Southern Company continues to perform exceptionally well. As you can see from the materials that we released this morning, we reported strong adjusted earnings results for the third quarter, meaningfully above the estimate provided last quarter, and we expect to deliver on our financial objectives for 2025. And I have to say Southern Company has an incredibly bright future ahead. Our state-regulated electric and gas utilities continue to provide long-term value to more than 9 million customers across the Southeast and beyond with reliable and affordable energy. The vertically integrated markets in which our electric utilities operate continue to provide transparent and orderly processes and have consistently supported our ability to meet the needs of our growing economies and electric demand while providing premier reliability and resilient service day in and day out.

We've done all of this while keeping customers' rates more than 10% below the national average. Further, the rate plan extension at Georgia Power, which freezes base rates until at least 2029, excluding the recovery of storm-related costs, is a testament to the benefits of a constructive regulatory framework and our focus on balancing growth and affordability. Customers continue to be at the center of everything we do. Our focus on the customer underpins our disciplined approach to forecasting, pricing, contracting, and deploying resources to serve this once-in-a-generation growth opportunity. And we continue to execute on those plans for the benefit of all of our customers. Over the last 2 months, we have 4 contracts with large load customers across Georgia and Alabama, representing over 2 gigawatts of demand. Consistent with our approach across Southern Company, these contracts include pricing and terms that are designed to pay for the incremental cost to serve new customer demand while also benefiting and protecting existing customers, helping to ensure growth does not come at the expense of affordability. I will now turn the call over to David to give an update on our financial performance.

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. For the third quarter of 2025, our adjusted earnings per share was $1.60, exceeding our estimate by $0.10 and up $0.17 from the same quarter in 2024. The main factors driving our performance this quarter compared to last year include ongoing investments in our state-regulated utilities, strong customer growth, and increased customer usage. These positive factors were somewhat diminished by milder weather compared to last year, as well as higher depreciation, amortization, and interest costs. For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, our adjusted earnings per share stood at $3.76, an increase from $3.56 during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date revenue growth has been seen in our state-regulated electric sectors, influenced in part by customer growth and higher usage, contributing an additional $0.12 year-over-year. A full reconciliation of our year-over-year earnings is detailed in the materials released this morning.

Our adjusted earnings per share estimate for the fourth quarter is $0.54, which, when combined with our year-to-date results, would place our full year adjusted earnings at the high end of our guidance range of $4.30. Moving on to retail electricity sales, year-to-date weather-normal retail electricity sales increased by 1.8% compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The year-over-year weather-normal retail electricity sales are on track for the highest annual growth since 2010, excluding the pandemic, showcasing growth across all three customer categories. In the third quarter, the commercial sector saw a 3.5% increase in sales based on weather-normal figures compared to the same quarter in 2024. This growth was bolstered by increased sales to existing and new customers, including a 17% rise in new data centers. Weather-normal residential sales also exhibited strong growth, up 2.7% from the third quarter of 2024, aided by the addition of approximately 12,000 new electric customers in that quarter, significantly above historical averages.

Sales to individual customers continued to show strength, increasing by 1.5% compared to the previous year. Year-to-date growth has also been observed across all our primary industrial customer segments, including primary metals, paper, and transportation, each up by 4% or more. Economic development activities in our electric service areas remain strong, with 22 companies announcing plans to establish or expand operations in our regions during the third quarter, which could create nearly 5,000 new jobs and represent anticipated capital investments of around $2.8 billion. Overall, strong customer growth, increasing usage in commercial and industrial sectors, and thriving economic activities in our service areas indicate that the Southeast economy is robust and well-positioned. Regarding our financing, I'd like to provide an update on our activities this quarter as we work to meet our future equity needs.

In the third quarter, we issued $4 billion in long-term debt through Alabama Power, Georgia Power, Southern Company Gas, and Southern Power. The strong quality and credit ratings of our subsidiaries continue to attract significant investor interest. This demand for our subsidiary securities leads to lower interest costs, ultimately benefiting the customers of our regulated subsidiaries in the long term. With these debt issuances, along with those from the first half of the year, we have fully met our long-term debt financing requirements for 2025 across all subsidiaries. On the equity front, we have adopted an opportunistic yet disciplined approach and have made substantial progress in sourcing equity in a way that supports our credit quality. Our commitment to maintaining strong investment-grade credit ratings across all major agencies remains firm. We intend to continue using equity or its equivalents to support our goal of achieving 17% funds from operations to debt within our planning horizon.

Remember that we highlighted a cumulative equity requirement of $9 billion through 2029 to fund our $76 billion capital investment plan in a credit-supportive manner during our July earnings call. Since then, we have priced an additional $1.8 billion in equity through forward sales agreements under our at-the-market program. These forward contracts have settlement dates extending through mid-2027, with options to settle earlier if desired. This progress and the flexibility it offers significantly mitigate risks in our financing strategies. Taking into account these ATM forward sales, other hybrid securities issued, and projections based on our internal plans, we have secured over $7 billion of our $9 billion equity need through 2029. We are well-positioned to address the remaining equity in a manner that is favorable to shareholders. Looking forward, as we work to ensure robust customer protections and credit provisions, our pipeline for large load data centers and manufacturers remains strong.

Across our electrical subsidiaries, there is a pipeline exceeding 50 gigawatts of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s. Our conservative approach to forecasting assumes that only a portion of this pipeline comes to fruition. In the last two months alone, we’ve secured four contracts across the Southern Company system that represent over 2 gigawatts of demand. Our projects are progressing toward executed contracts, which alongside their load ramp-up over the coming years, solidifies a considerable part of our projected electric sales growth of 8% annually through 2029, including an average annual increase of 12% at Georgia Power during the same timeframe. In Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, we now have contracts with large load customers totaling 7 gigawatts through 2029, projected to grow to 8 gigawatts in the 2030s, and we are in advanced talks for additional loads. I will now hand the call back to Chris for further insights on our progress.

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Thank you, David. As David noted, we have made great progress with signing new large load contracts. Just last month, as a part of Georgia Power's ongoing RFP certification proceedings, Georgia Power filed an update to its load forecast. This update forecast continues to project the capacity need consistent with the 10 gigawatts of capacity resources being requested, which include 5 natural gas combined cycle units and 11 battery energy storage facilities. These proceedings are scheduled to have a final determination by the commission by the end of this year. Separately, Alabama Power, following approvals from the Alabama Public Service Commission and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has completed the acquisition of the 900-megawatt Lindsay Hill natural gas generating facility to serve projected long-term capacity needs in the state. In addition, construction continues on approximately 2.5 gigawatts of new generation in both Georgia and Alabama, which includes 3 natural gas combustion turbines and 7 battery storage facilities, all of which are projected to go online over the next 2 years.

Further, the South System 4 expansion at Southern Natural Gas within our Southern Company Gas subsidiary continues to move forward and will provide a valuable resource in serving the projected growth in our service territories. It is clear that we continue to make great progress executing on our plan as we deliver exceptional value to customers and investors. Consistent with our past practice and representative of our continued discipline, we expect to provide a complete update to our long-term plan during our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call this coming February. As always, this update will include refreshes to our 5-year capital investment outlook, sales forecast, and financing plans, as well as our 2026 and long-term EPS guidance. Consistent with our comments throughout 2025, as a part of that communication, we expect to provide additional clarity on our long-term earnings trajectory, which, as we've highlighted before, could translate into increasing the base from where our long-term EPS growth starts, which could be potentially as early as 2027.

We have delivered exceptional operational and solid financial results through the first 3 quarters of the year. Just this week, Southern Company was named to Newsweek's World's Most Trustworthy Companies for 2025 list and was the highest ranked energy company in the United States on that list. Recognized companies were identified in an independent survey, and our inclusion at the top of this list is a testament to the hard work and unwavering commitment of our employees to uphold our values and operate each day at the highest standards of integrity, transparency, and accountability. We are honored by this recognition, and I am incredibly proud of our team and the execution across all of our businesses. In conclusion, we're extraordinarily well positioned to finish the year strong. We have the team, we have the experience, and the scale to capture and execute on the exciting opportunities in front of us. We really have a bright and exciting future ahead. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

Questions and answers

OperatorOperator

Operator Instructions. And our first question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

Steven FleishmanAnalyst

I have no idea how I got on the list for questions because I didn't ask one, but I appreciate that. I didn't have any questions.

OperatorOperator

And your next question comes from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Carly DavenportAnalyst

Maybe to start just on the kind of load growth outlook in Georgia, I guess, as you continue to lock in contracts under the new tariff structure there, can you talk a little bit about the reception from customers to the new structure and also how you approach the minimum bill components and ensure cost recovery from investments to support that load?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Yes. Thank you, Carly. That's a great question. As we've mentioned, we are currently operating under the new rules set by the Georgia Public Service Commission that were implemented in the spring. What we are noticing is that customers really understand these long-term commitments we are making to allocate resources to meet their needs. These new rules have allowed us to prioritize more creditworthy and serious counterparties. We've made significant progress in structuring these contracts, which provide excellent protections for both customers and our investors. The minimum bills ensure that we cover all our costs, regardless of whether the meter is actively registering usage. Once the customer engagement ramps up, it becomes very advantageous for both the company and our customers. We're pleased with the educational efforts we've made over the last year. This is partly why these contracts have taken some time to finalize – we are guiding customers through the process of understanding the structure and the importance of protecting their interests through these agreements.

Carly DavenportAnalyst

Great. Really helpful. And then maybe the follow-up, just on the Georgia regulatory environment, just with the upcoming certifications and potential for incremental needs on the generation side for approval. How are you thinking about potential impacts from the PSC election and those processes as you think about the longer-term plan?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Yes, Carly, let's start with the election question first. Elections in Georgia for the 2 commission seats, they will be held next Tuesday. We've had a couple of weeks of early voting. I mean one of the things we talk a lot about in all of our states is that we have an incredibly long history of working constructively with whomever is in those seats. And the 5 seats that are occupied in Georgia, they've always brought different views and perspectives. And so we expect that will, in fact, be the same. And so we'll work with whomever is there. And as those positions are filled, I mean, they keep the citizens in mind as well as we keep our customers in mind. So we have a lot of alignment there. So we've always constructively worked with whomever has been elected in those seats.

David PorochChief Financial Officer

And Carly, you asked about status and kind of where we are. Recall that in September, Georgia Power filed an updated load forecast and testimony. And that load forecast, using the same methodologies as several months ago, discounting forecasted load and risk adjusting that, supported the need for the whole 10 gigawatts that we're requesting. And that process is ongoing. So we're going to have staff and other interveners file their testimony in the next couple of weeks, I think. And we're scheduled to get a ruling from the commission, I think it's December 19, latter part of December. But all that should be wrapped up, and we'll see the results before year-end.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst

Chris, can we talk about the rebasing? You use the same language again about as early as '27. And a lot of folks are very curious to understand what the metrics that you're looking at, whether it's operational or regulatory or just frankly, incremental signed data center deals to get you comfortable to make it more of a firmer time line for that rebasing. Any thoughts that you'd observe here on how you're thinking about that time line?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Julien, I mean, I think we've said. I mean there's not kind of an exact list. I mean there are a lot of things that we're going to look at to make that decision. I mean how is the economy performing, what's happening with interest rates? I mean where are we with large load contracts? I mean just a number of factors, I think, that has to go into that consideration to give us the confidence and certainty to make that kind of decision. And so I mean, as we said before, I mean, clearly, there's a lot more meat on the bone in terms of where we are and how that decision needs to be made. But yes, I mean, that's something we'll work through, and we'll give you more clarity on that in our February call for next year.

Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst

Awesome. Excellent. And a little bit more of a nitpicky question. The $9 billion of equity you guys talked about here a second ago, in theory, if you were to get this incremental $5 billion, how do you think about that being reflected in that $9 billion?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

The upside that we discussed in the second quarter call, Julien, you mean?

Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst

Yes. That's all in there, right?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

No. Actually, the upside to the extent that the Georgia Public Service Commission approves all of our request, we had talked about that being about another $4 billion of incremental capital. And that's likely to be financed kind of in that neighborhood of about 40% equity going forward. So once we get clarity on that, we'll be able to execute on that plan.

Julien Dumoulin-SmithAnalyst

And there's a little rounding out there, right, between the $4 billion and the $5 billion with gas, I think it is, if I understand all the number?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

You're exactly right, Julien. The $4 billion relates specifically to the remainder at request at the Georgia Public Service Commission. And we've talked about opportunities within our FERC-regulated jurisdictions in the gas infrastructure business, and that's about $1 billion. So you're exactly on point.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.

Shahriar PourrezaAnalyst

So just quickly shifting to Southern Power, there are definitely many opportunities, and some existing tolling agreements will start to expire. How should we consider the assets, their value, and the pricing environment? Have discussions begun, and are there chances to renegotiate these tolls before they expire, considering the assets' value?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Yes. As we've discussed, a significant portion of these assets, around 95%, are under long-term contracts that extend through 2029. You're right to point out the opportunities that will arise. Near the end of these contracts, we intend to engage in conversations to renegotiate and renew them when suitable. We're currently considering a couple of recent developments, specifically in Georgia, where Southern Power secured two power purchase agreements through a competitive bid. These agreements will take effect in the early 2030s and are priced almost three times higher than the current rates. If this market trend continues, we foresee great opportunities in the future as these contracts mature, allowing us to renegotiate and commit these assets moving forward.

Shahriar PourrezaAnalyst

Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, just obviously, you guys talked about the amount of gas that's needed in the Southeast. Just around the SNG pipeline expansion, any thoughts on timing there? How are the conversations going with the counterparties?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

The SNG expansion is going well on track. I think we've talked about that being about a $3 billion investment, 100% dollars. We're a 50% owner of that. And so that project is going as scheduled, and we expect great interest in contracting that capacity. That pipe runs kind of, if you will, through our backyard, and we see that pipe being able to just serve our needs as well as a number of other needs through the adjoining states. So looking forward to getting that project taken care of.

Shahriar PourrezaAnalyst

Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, if I could just slip one quick one on the equity question. Chris, there's been obviously some pretty healthy transactions that have been done around partial asset sales. Some of your peers have done it. They have been successful. But just want to get a sense on have you considered sort of other avenues versus these equity or equity-like instruments and even can some parts of Southern Power be opportunities there? We're just focusing on equity and equity-like.

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Shar, we don't comment on kind of speculative transactions or rumors or kind of these broad questions. We're always looking to see who is the best owner of a given asset. And that's something that we'll always look around corners and make those kinds of decisions. And I think it's a little bit premature. But yes, I mean, that's something that we'll always give deep consideration to. We like our cards. We like the portfolio that we have. But I mean, there's some things we'll always take a look at.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho Securities.

Anthony CrowdellAnalyst

You mentioned during the fourth quarter call that we would receive a capital refresh and possibly an update on the EPS CAGR. You also hinted at discussing the base starting in 2027. My question is, will we receive guidance for 2027 during the fourth quarter call?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Anthony, we've been talking about this opportunity for a good little while. And as we've seen this kind of momentum around developing these contracts come to fruition, it is pretty unique. And those contracts that we've talked about are kind of coming into play in the latter part of our planning horizon. So we do expect to be able to share some clarity on that. Like Chris talked about, a lot of things are in the mix. And as we move forward in getting these contracts taken care of, we'll be able to share what that clarity looks like in February.

Anthony CrowdellAnalyst

Great. And then just last question. And I apologize I have the timing wrong. I believe from your last call to this call I believe Moody's put the holding company on a negative outlook. Your equity needs had already announced before. Does that negative outlook or maybe change the view of maybe pulling forward or the timing of that remainder $2 billion of equity?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

We believe we have a solid path to reach 17% FFO to debt. It's essential for us at Southern to maintain our high credit quality, which supports our premium equity. We aim to retain our ratings and establish a buffer towards the 16% downgrade threshold. Our goal is getting closer to 17%, with both qualitative and quantitative factors showing improvement. The successful execution of equity issuances and finalizing these contracts is promising. We will remain proactive and disciplined in our approach and continue to update the rating agencies about our progress as we work towards achieving 17% in our planning horizon.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Jeremy TonetAnalyst

I have a quick question regarding nuclear. Southern has previously mentioned the significance of nuclear development for the future of the country. We've observed increased support from the federal government that is advancing initiatives in various regions. I'm curious if there are specific actions or federal support that would make expanding Vogtle or pursuing SMR more appealing to Southern.

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

First of all, let me express my excitement about the actions taken by the administration in collaboration with Westinghouse, Cameco, and Brookfield. These initiatives are crucial for advancing new nuclear energy in our country. Given the rapidly increasing demand, it is essential for us to take the necessary steps to build new units here. The actions announced recently, alongside the President's executive orders regarding regulation, are vital for supporting the development of new nuclear energy. As we consider the addition of these new units, which could have lifespans of 60 to 80 years, it is important to address both current and future demand, extending into the next century. Acknowledging the leadership role that the government must play to address and mitigate risks is crucial. I am genuinely excited about the measures being implemented by this administration.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

Andrew WeiselAnalyst

Forgive me, I'm not sure if I heard an answer to that last question. Does all of that federal government activity change your appetite? I appreciate the industry commentary, but what about your appetite?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Not at this time.

Andrew WeiselAnalyst

Okay. But that wasn't my original question. My original question was on Slide 9, I'm interested. So you showed the demand from large load customers for 2029 and then the mid-30s. What strikes me is it's a fairly small change, only 1 incremental gigawatt is contracted and 1 additional gigawatt of committed. How much of that would you say is the same projects ramping up their demand versus an incremental project or projects coming online between those years? And then to what degree would you say the small increase is conservatism or risk adjusting or however you want to call it? It just seems like a fairly small delta relative to the trends and commentary.

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Yes. No, I get where you're coming from. What we wanted to try to display in this chart, so I appreciate your question, is that the entire 7 gigs on the 2029 column is included in the 2030 column. And so what we're trying to reflect there is ramp-up, timing and our expectations and projections based on the contracts that we have as well as in the committed section, that's reflective of the conversations that we've been having and the modeling that we've been doing through the negotiations. And so those ramp-ups do take a minute and those are projected to kind of be over about a 5-year period. It's a little different from contract to contract because obviously, these are tailor-made contracts, bilateral negotiations, not necessarily at all a unique large load tariff. And so these are tailor-made and reflect our expectations around the ramp-up.

OperatorOperator

And your next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

David ArcaroAnalyst

So looking at the 10 gigawatt large load contracted or committed numbers by 2029, I guess, I was just wondering if there's still a further opportunity to add on more gigawatts there to bring on more large load by the 2029 time frame? Or are you seeing system constraints or limits in terms of absorbing additional data centers in the near term?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

I think the ability to bring on more is out there. I mean so the answer to your question is, yes, there's more capacity, more opportunity. And yes, we are in advanced discussions, in advanced considerations with other large load companies in terms of looking at more possibilities. So yes, there are more upside opportunities for the latter part of this decade.

David ArcaroAnalyst

Yes, I understand. I was wondering if you could describe the plan for the next set of RFPs. Specifically, when you anticipate these future generation needs will come into service and when you might start soliciting bids for those RFPs.

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Sure. So remember, that '25 IRP stipulation allowed for another all-source RFP to begin as early as 2026. And at the moment, we don't really have any size or parameters. We're just working through that and assessing our needs. We need to get through the processes in place at the moment, and then we'll look to the future. And that could be in the early 2030s, maybe 2032-ish, but we'll have to wait and see how that plays out, and we'll have more clarity next year. But we're really encouraged by the conversations that we've been having, and the momentum continues to build, not just in Georgia, but around the service territories.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport.

Agnieszka StorozynskiAnalyst

So my first question about contract-based gas fired new build. So in the past, you guys were saying that you're still waiting to see demand or interest in like fully loaded economics for gas-fired new build for Southern Power. And I'm wondering if we've already achieved that point? Or is it still a waiting period?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

For recontracting at Southern Power? I just want to make sure I understand the question.

Agnieszka StorozynskiAnalyst

No, like building a brand new combined cycle for a hyperscaler or whoever under a long-term contract by Southern Power meeting your return expectations? If you've already seen offers at levels that you would consider interesting?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

We continue to evaluate. And recall, I think we talked about it probably several times in the past that Southern Power, we run with a pretty high filter. We have high credit quality counterparties, long term in nature, locking up the capacity, no fuel risk. So as we find those opportunities that fit into that box, we'll definitely pursue them. And at the moment, we're just still evaluating.

Agnieszka StorozynskiAnalyst

So the answer is no, you haven't seen them or you're still sort of debating if the terms are attractive?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Yes, we're evaluating and having some conversations around that.

Agnieszka StorozynskiAnalyst

Okay. And then regarding the nuclear new build, I know you've addressed this several times already during the call. We keep hearing, particularly from Westinghouse, that there is interest in nuclear new builds from large regulated utility operators in the U.S. I understand that these could just be preliminary discussions, but the Southeast frequently comes up in this context. Looking at the map, there are several possibilities here. So I'm curious if these are just preliminary discussions, or if there are more concrete developments on the horizon, especially considering what's happening in South Carolina. How should we prepare for any potential announcements from you?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Yes. I mean I can't speak for others, but I'll speak for Southern Company. We are not there yet to make an announcement about a new nuclear plant. As we said many times in the past, we want to make sure that all risks are mitigated before we make that kind of decision. I'm excited about all the activity that's occurring around the country with considerations about new nuclear. But until we find a way to get all the risks mitigated, I mean, that's not a decision that we're going to make. But we're going to continue to work with the administration, work with other government agencies to talk about the importance and the role that new nuclear can play in meeting this growing demand. But being perfectly clear, no, we're not in a position to make that decision at this point until we find ways to make sure all risks are mitigated.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Paul Fremont with Ladenburg Thalmann.

Paul FremontAnalyst

First question is, I just want to understand the difference between contracted and committed. Is that just an ESA versus an LOA? Or what's the distinction there?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Sure. Let's start with the contract. It's a signed agreement that is fairly straightforward. We are committed to deliver based on the agreed terms and conditions. The parties have signed off, and we are moving forward. The request for service is progressing through the previously described process, where an entity may select a state like Georgia. We begin discussions with them, and within Georgia, they will choose Georgia Power over other providers. This elevates our conversations, increases the collateral involved, and makes the process more complex. Engineering studies are underway. As we negotiate terms, pricing, ramp-ups, and other requirements, this is the final phase before actually signing a contract. Being committed means we are quite far along, working on the terms and conditions, finalizing engineering studies, and near the contract signing stage.

Paul FremontAnalyst

Okay. So that's sort of like finalizing agreements. Can you characterize how many gigawatts would be in advanced stage negotiations? I think some of your peers provide that third layer of breakout.

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Yes. So in that bucket, we're probably in the neighborhood of 12-ish gigs. I mean it's fairly dynamic and it's across the system.

Paul FremontAnalyst

Great. And then sort of last question for me. You are targeting or you're guiding to 8% sales growth. What year would you expect to sort of achieve that level of sales growth?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

That's in the latter part of the horizon. I think we've talked about 2029 is the target for that, and we grow into that over time.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar.

Travis MillerAnalyst

I'm back. So keeping with the large load popular topic here. If I run through those numbers that you broke out in terms of projects and gigawatts, it looks like average projects somewhere less than 0.5 gigawatt, maybe 300 to 500 megawatts. One, I was wondering if that's kind of a fair assessment of what you're seeing out there? And then, two, what is the extra 50 gigawatts or the next stage look like? We've heard some utilities talking about gigawatt projects, tech companies talking about multiple gigawatt projects. So I wonder if you could characterize the current customers and then the next step?

David PorochChief Financial Officer

Okay. Yes. Thank you. So yes, I wouldn't do just the straight math. I mean these are wide-ranging. We've got some on the 100 megawatts of the scale, and then we've got a couple at the north of 1 gigawatt. And so they are really all over the place. And like we've talked about, I mean, each one of these are tailor-made contracts for their own specific needs. So I'd suggest resisting the simple math.

Travis MillerAnalyst

Okay. That's helpful there. And then the 50 gigawatts or the next stage, 40 or so gigawatts incremental, what are you seeing from those coming into the system requesting...

David PorochChief Financial Officer

We are evaluating over 50 gigawatts as we build our forecast, taking into account the different stages of the pipeline and heavily discounting through various layers of the contracting process. We have mentioned that a small portion of that is expected to materialize as contracts.

OperatorOperator

And that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. Sir, are there any closing remarks?

Christopher WomackChairman, President and CEO

Again, let me thank everybody for joining us today on our call. And as we said before, we have a bright future, and we're looking forward to what's ahead. So thank you very much, and have a great day.

OperatorOperator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes The Southern Company Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect.

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