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SHOE STATION GROUP INC (SCVL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

56 segments

Prepared remarks

OperatorOperator

Good morning, and welcome to Shoe Carnival's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded and is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks today contain certain forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should also be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release. Information about our use of adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can be found in our earnings materials that are available on our website. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Clint Sifford, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer of Shoe Carnival for opening remarks. Mr. Sifford, you may begin.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call are W. Kerry Jackson, our Chief Financial Officer; Tanya E. Gordon, our Chief Merchandising Officer; and Marc A. Chilton, our Chief Operating Officer. Tanya and Marc are both available to take your questions during the Q&A portion of the call. This is my second earnings call since returning as Interim Chief Executive Officer in late February, and I want to begin by thanking our board, our management team, and our associates across the company for their hard work during this period of transition. When I returned in late February, the board asked me to take a fresh look at the rebanner program and the broader strategic direction of the company. Working closely with Kerry, Tanya, Marc, and the rest of our management team, we completed that review during the first quarter. Three conclusions emerged. First, the Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station banners each serve distinct consumer segments, and the company is best positioned to operate both banners as permanent independent components of our portfolio. We are not pursuing a single banner strategy. Second, while the rebanner program has been successful in markets where the consumer demographics align, our detailed analysis of customer data, individual store trade areas, shopping center co-tenancy, and brand awareness by market identified only a limited number of additional Shoe Carnival locations that meet the criteria for conversion. For this reason, we expect few store rebanners over the next two years, a substantial departure from prior expectations. Third, our store fleet includes underperforming locations that do not have a path to acceptable economics with or without banner conversion. We expect to close 12 to 14 such stores during fiscal 2026 and a further 6 to 10 stores during fiscal 2027. These decisions, together with related fixed asset write-offs, drove the strategic review charges of approximately $8 million that we recorded in the first quarter. I want to spend a moment on the Shoe Carnival banner because we believe this banner has more potential than recent results have shown. The first quarter offered an early indication of what is possible. Through a rebalancing of marketing investment and a more deliberate promotional cadence in our stores, we narrowed Shoe Carnival's year-over-year net sales decline to 2.2%, a meaningful improvement compared to the trends we experienced throughout fiscal 2025. The plan from here is straightforward. We will restore the right product mix that delivers the competitive opening price points our customers expect. We will pair that assortment with a measured in-store promotional cadence and supporting marketing presence. We will execute consistently across the chain. I want to be candid with you about the timing. We do not believe correcting the product mix will be visible in our reported results until back-to-school for athletic categories and into the fall season for nonathletic categories. We have also begun the effort to reengage the value-focused families and a more fast-fashion-forward customer, both of whom we underserved in fiscal 2025 when our merchandising drifted toward higher price points and assortments that did not reflect what those customers historically came to Shoe Carnival to find. Reengaging those customers will take longer than a single quarter; our back-to-school product offering and supporting promotions would demonstrate a clear return to the traditional Shoe Carnival proposition. The Shoe Station banner net sales declined 3.1% in the quarter, the first banner-level decline in some time. Part of that softness reflects a marketing rebalance towards Shoe Carnival that I just described, but it also reflects a more fundamental issue we identified through the strategic review and I want to address directly. When we converted Shoe Carnival locations to the Shoe Station banner over the past few years, we applied a uniform Shoe Station assortment calibrated to the premium, brand-led experience that our legacy Shoe Station customers in the Southeast know well. The assortment has performed well in markets where the trade area demographics align with the Shoe Station consumer profile. In other markets, however, the trade area retains characteristics of the original Shoe Carnival customer base, and the uniform assortment has not resonated as we expected. The path forward is not to reverse those conversions. Rather, our merchandising team under Tanya's leadership and in close coordination with our key vendor partners is calibrating the assortment at each converted store to align with the actual demand profile of its trade area. In some markets, that means a more accessible mix within the Shoe Station banner. In others, it means leaning further into the premium brand-led positioning. The Shoe Station banner remains our premium concept, but the assortment discipline behind it is being tailored to each market. This is the most important operational priority for our merchandising team between now and August. Our goal is to have the right assortments by store based on the customers shopping that particular store in time for back-to-school. Looking further forward, we expect to begin selective new store growth in fiscal 2027. Our plan currently contemplates 3 to 5 new stores in fiscal 2027, expanding to 8 to 10 in fiscal 2028. These new stores will be primarily under the Shoe Station banner, in suburban trade areas within our existing 35-state footprint where the consumer demographic clearly supports the concept. We are executing this plan from a position of financial strength. We ended the first quarter with $129 million in cash equivalents and marketable securities, an increase of more than $36 million compared to the prior year quarter, and we operate with no debt. During the quarter, we also returned approximately $7 million to shareholders through the repurchase of 390 thousand shares of common stock. This financial flexibility is a deliberate result of disciplined capital management over many years, and it allows us to fund the actions I have just described: the moderated rebanner activity, the store closures, the inventory normalization, and the future new-store program entirely from operating cash flows and existing reserves. On a GAAP basis, we reported a first quarter diluted loss per share of $0.21, reflecting the cost associated with the chief executive transition and the strategic review of our rebanner program. Excluding those charges, the underlying business generated $0.23 of non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share, consistent with consensus analyst expectations for the quarter. Net sales of $270.7 million and a comparable store sales decline of 2.1% both came in modestly ahead of consensus, and gross profit margin of 33.3% was in line. Selling, general and administrative expense on a non-GAAP adjusted basis was modestly above consensus. That said, meeting consensus this quarter should not obscure the underlying issues we identified through the strategic review. The microenvironment was a contributing factor. Our customers, particularly at the Shoe Carnival banner, are absorbing higher costs for fuel, food, and other essentials with recent geopolitical developments adding pressure. We saw that reflected in an unusually consistent softness across all four of our major footwear categories: adult athletic, men's nonathletic, women's nonathletic, and children, each down low single digits in the quarter. That kind of cross-category symmetry tells us this is a consumer-pressure story, not a category-specific issue. More fundamentally, the underlying issue in the first quarter was our product positioning at both banners. At the rebannered Shoe Station stores, our assortment was tilted toward a customer profile we have not yet attracted in meaningful volume to those locations and that in many cases does not naturally shop at the centers where those stores are located. At our legacy Shoe Carnival stores, our merchandising had drifted toward a more moderate-income customer while underserving the value-focused family and fast-fashion customers in large metropolitan areas, both of whom have been important customers for the Shoe Carnival banner. We believe those positioning issues are reversible, and both are being addressed by the corrective actions I described earlier. We expect the work to begin to show in our results at back-to-school for athletic categories and through fall for nonathletic categories. Looking ahead, the consumer environment remains challenging. We expect continued pressure on moderate-income households through the balance of fiscal 2026, particularly given the recent geopolitical developments affecting fuel and food costs. We are planning the business accordingly. At the same time, the bulk of our annual earnings opportunity sits in back-to-school and fall, and our corrective actions at both banners are deliberately targeted to land in advance of those critical selling periods. For that reason, we are reaffirming the fiscal 2026 guidance we communicated in March. The most important quarters for our business are still ahead of us, and it is too early in the year to step away from the guidance we set. Kerry will walk you through the detail in his remarks. I am confident in our team and the strategic review conclusions that we have reached, and in the financial foundations from which we are executing. Kerry will now provide a detailed financial review of the first quarter. We will then open the line for questions, after which I will offer brief closing remarks.

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Thank you, Clint, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results came in within the range of consensus analyst expectations with sales modestly above consensus, gross margin in line, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.23 matching consensus. I will walk you through the detailed financial results, our balance sheet position, and our reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance. On a GAAP basis, we reported a first quarter net loss of $5.6 million or $0.21 per diluted share reflecting $13.6 million of pretax charges associated with the CEO transition and strategic review of our rebanner program that Clint described. These charges break down as $5.3 million of costs related to the CEO transition — primarily cash severance, the accelerated vesting of equity awards, outplacement fees, related payroll taxes, and related legal costs — and $8.3 million of strategic review charges comprising the impairment of seven store locations, some of which were previously identified as rebanner candidates, write-offs of rebanner-related and corporate fixed assets, and related lease costs. The after-tax impact of these charges was $11.9 million or $0.43 per diluted share. Excluding these charges, non-GAAP adjusted net income for the first quarter was $6.2 million or $0.23 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $9.3 million or $0.34 per diluted share in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Net sales for the first quarter were $270.7 million, modestly ahead of consensus, compared to $278 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Total company comparable store sales declined 2.1%, also modestly ahead of consensus. Breaking down performance by banner, Shoe Carnival banner net sales were $177.3 million, representing 65% of net sales, a decline of 2.2% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Comparable store sales at Shoe Carnival declined approximately 1.7%, which represents a meaningful improvement from the mid- to high-single-digit comparable sales declines we reported at the Shoe Carnival banner throughout fiscal 2025. Shoe Station banner net sales were $93.4 million, representing 35% of total net sales, and declined 3.1% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Comparable store sales at Shoe Station declined approximately 2.9%. While we saw an improvement in the rebanner stores, a moderation in Shoe Station's e-commerce sales resulted in the comparable store sales decline. First quarter gross profit margin was 33.3%, a decrease of approximately 120 basis points compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Within that, merchandise margin decreased 140 basis points primarily reflecting increased promotional activity and higher e-commerce-related shipping costs. The decrease was partially offset by approximately 20 basis points primarily due to lower buying, distribution, and occupancy costs. The first quarter gross profit margin compression of 120 basis points is consistent with the full-year fiscal 2026 gross margin expectation we communicated in March, which contemplates approximately 62 to 72 basis points of gross profit margin compression for the year with the majority of that compression weighted to the first half. Selling, general and administrative expense on a GAAP basis was $96.1 million in the first quarter, an increase of $12.3 million compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Excluding the $13.6 million of nonrecurring charges associated with the CEO transition and the strategic review, adjusted SG&A was $82.5 million, a decrease of approximately $1.3 million compared to the prior year quarter. Of that decrease, approximately $200 thousand reflected lower rebanner-related costs and $1.1 million reflected other lower selling expenses. First quarter income tax expense on a GAAP basis was $600 thousand despite a pre-tax loss for the quarter. This reflects the nondeductibility of certain CEO severance payments which increased reported income tax expense by approximately $1.6 million. On a non-GAAP adjusted basis, our effective income tax rate in the first quarter was approximately 27%, compared to 28% in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. We continue to operate from a position of significant financial strength. At the end of the first quarter, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $129.3 million, an increase of approximately 39% or $36.4 million compared to the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025. We remain debt free. Cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter increased $32.7 million compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Capital expenditures during the first quarter totaled approximately $10.4 million, a decrease of approximately $3 million compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, primarily reflecting the moderated pace of rebanner activity. Merchandise inventories at the end of the first quarter were $417.2 million, a decrease of approximately $11 million compared to the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Consistent with the framework we communicated in March, we continue to expect inventory to decline by $50 million to $65 million by the end of fiscal 2026 compared to the end of fiscal 2025, driven by disciplined buying and planned promotional activity during the first half of the year. During the first quarter, we returned approximately $12 million to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. We paid a dividend of $0.17 per share, an increase of 13.3% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2025. This marked the twelfth consecutive year in which we increased the quarterly dividend rate and the 56th consecutive quarter in which the company has paid a dividend. We also repurchased 390 thousand shares of common stock during the first quarter for approximately $7 million at an average price of $17.93 per share. As of the end of the first quarter, approximately $43 million remained available under our existing share repurchase authorization. Turning to our fiscal 2026 guidance, the first quarter unfolded broadly in line with consensus expectations on the key financial metrics. We are reaffirming the fiscal 2026 guidance we communicated in March, which continues to contemplate net sales of $1.125 billion to $1.147 billion representing a range of down 1% to up 1% versus fiscal 2025; adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.40 to $1.60; gross profit margin of approximately 34%, representing approximately 260 basis points of compression versus fiscal 2025; reductions in adjusted SG&A of $12 million to $14 million versus fiscal 2025; and an effective adjusted income tax rate of approximately 26%. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance excludes the impact of the CEO transition costs previously identified and strategic review charges recorded during the first quarter. With that, I will open up the call for questions.

Questions and answers

OperatorOperator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Mitchel Kummetz with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a few. Let me start on the stores. I think you are at 426 now. What is the mix between Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station on that number?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

You want to take that? Marc, do you know? Marc is on the call, and I'd like for him to give you that number.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

And while you are looking for that, Clint, you talked about closing 12 to 14 this year and slowing the rebanners. Are the 12 to 14 all Shoe Station stores? Are there some Shoe Carnival stores? And how many rebanners are you still looking to do this year?

Marc A. ChiltonChief Operating Officer

Hey, Mitchel. When you look at the breakdown, there are 281 Shoe Carnival locations and 145 Shoe Station locations. Regarding closures, the majority of the planned closures are Shoe Carnival; I believe we have one slated in fiscal 2026 that is a Shoe Station.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

And then how many rebanners are you completing over the balance of this year? How many are you doing?

Marc A. ChiltonChief Operating Officer

We have completed the rebanners for this year and are finishing them up this month. We will be done with rebanners for this fiscal year.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Mitchel, if I can add: the goal now is to find sites to grow Shoe Station with new stores in areas where the demographics match what we want Shoe Station to be. There are chances that even in cities we serve today with Shoe Carnival, we will open Shoe Station across town because that is where the Shoe Station customer lives. The new stores we are opening over the next two years will primarily be Shoe Station.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Can you speak a little bit to what those two customer segments look like? Is this really about income level, or how do you see these two segments?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Shoe Carnival has long served a very diverse customer base. Our strongest markets have included places like Chicago and Houston where we serve Hispanic and African American customers and other diverse consumers. Shoe Station has been a little different — it resonates well with a higher-income customer who is looking for better brands and better product. That is the way we are going to grow Shoe Station in the future: go after a diverse consumer with higher income living in better parts of town and perhaps a bit older. One of the things we have seen is that Shoe Carnival attracts younger customers and families just getting started. As those customers' incomes improve, sometimes we lose them at Shoe Carnival and we can then serve them with Shoe Station. It is a great opportunity to service customers across income brackets, and that is why we are excited about the long-term growth opportunity.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

On the Carnival side, you mentioned tweaking the marketing and promotional strategies. Can you talk about what you have done and how that has improved performance of that banner?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

The strength of Shoe Carnival has always been the in-store experience. When the customer walks into our store, we assume they will buy one pair, and our goal is to sell them a second or third pair. We use the in-store microphone announcements to entice customers to buy additional pairs. That practice had been dampened; we asked our stores to return to the Shoe Carnival methodology that made us successful, and it worked. For back-to-school, the promotional cadence for athletic and nonathletic product will be paginated differently than Shoe Station. Shoe Carnival will have more lower-price product that appeals to customers with large families, while Shoe Station will feature higher price points and higher-end categories.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

On back-to-school, it sounds like some adjustments to the assortment will be in place for athletic product, but nonathletic changes will come a bit later. Since back-to-school skews athletic, are there any concerns that you will not have the right nonathletic assortment in place for back-to-school, especially for price-point items?

Tanya E. GordonChief Merchandising Officer

Thanks, Mitchel. On nonathletic, we have made changes and will see a bigger shift in the fall season when the nonathletic side really ramps. To reiterate Clint's point, about 70% of back-to-school business is athletic, and we have positioned that well. On the nonathletic side, we have added more urban brands that we had walked away from; we have positioned value on the nonathletic side for back-to-school as well. As we move into fall and get into boot assortments, we will make more pivots for Q3 and Q4. The Shoe Carnival assortment needs more value and young, fashion-forward product at strong opening price points. Shoe Station's consumer is more mature and likes brands at a value, so we've worked to bring in branded product at compelling price points for Shoe Station as well. You will see more of these changes in back-to-school and increasingly through the second half of the year.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

That is very helpful. Thanks, and good luck.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Thank you, Mitchel.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel Poser with Williams Trading. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

One, the timing of the store closures that you foresee this year — can we assume Q2 and Q4 are most of them? Is it right that a lot will be at the end of the fiscal year?

Marc A. ChiltonChief Operating Officer

Hey, Samuel. We are looking at five closures in Q2, two in Q3, and somewhere between five and seven in Q4.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Can you go into a little more detail on the localized assortments you are putting in place and how long it will take for both banners to reach a level where the assortments are right? Given the prior standardization, you are not there yet, correct?

Tanya E. GordonChief Merchandising Officer

Hi, Samuel. You are absolutely right — we are not there today. We have made changes for back-to-school and will make more changes in the back half of the year. Previously, we bought all stores the same and moved away from localization, meaning we stopped leaning into the urban consumer in both Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station markets where urban customers exist. We have pivoted to bring more assortments into those stores and to put more value in, especially for Shoe Carnival. When you think about the assortment in terms of good, better, best, both banners need the 'good' tier, but Shoe Carnival leans much heavier into that 'good' and value tier. We have increased urban brands in Shoe Carnival and are bringing in branded pieces with value for Shoe Station. You'll see more of these changes in back-to-school and even more through the fall as we align assortments to actual customer demand by store.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

For Kerry: you talked about a 270 basis point drop in gross margin. You said it would be skewed toward the front half. How should we think about Q2 from a gross margin perspective? Some of us are looking at a large year-over-year decline in Q2; can you help with the trend?

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Directionally, you are right about the front-half pressure. Last year in Q2, our merchandise margin increased significantly year over year — almost 400 basis points. We expect to give much of that back because pricing was ahead of cost increases and we were not competitive on pricing at that time. In addition, we will run liquidation and promotional activity in Q2 to clean inventories, which will put further pressure on merchandise margin. That said, we will leverage buying, distribution, and occupancy (BD&O) costs against the higher sales base, so your 500-basis-point estimate may be a bit high, but you are generally right on the directional trend.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

One last one for Clint — I apologize ahead of time — how does the new Chief Merchant rank versus her two predecessors?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

I hired Tanya based on a very strong recommendation, and I am extremely proud of her. We've had a great string of chief merchants over the years. Tanya has been excellent, and I'm very happy she is here.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Okay. I will leave it at that. Have a great one and I'll talk to you soon.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from the line of Mitchel Kummetz with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Yeah, thanks again. A few more. You talked about some of the converted stores not aligning with their trade areas. Have you been able to identify how many stores that involves? Can you give us that number?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

I'd ask Marc to jump in on this one, but yes, we know the stores that do not align because that was part of the strategic review. It is not a hard fix in terms of assortment change, but timing matters — it takes time to execute. It is not a complete reset of inventory in those stores; it's often adding additional product and eliminating some higher-end items, adding opening price points to get them fixed. Tanya is working through that operationally.

Tanya E. GordonChief Merchandising Officer

To build on that, the overall brand mix is largely similar across national brands — about 60-65% of the assortment is the same because we need to carry the national brands. The difference is the penetration of each brand based on the customer base in each market. For Shoe Carnival, it's getting more value and younger fashion at strong opening price points. For Shoe Station, it's getting branded product for a more mature consumer at a great value. Those are the types of changes we're implementing.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

As an enterprise, thinking about running both banners long term across your 35-state footprint, are there any limitations for Shoe Station in growing broadly? Shoe Station historically had a Southeastern presence. As you open stores outside that core, have those stores worked well? Do you see Shoe Station functioning as broadly as the Carnival banner?

Marc A. ChiltonChief Operating Officer

Mitchel, the key differential for Shoe Station is finding the right customer base — a little older and a little more affluent. Ethnicity has not been an issue. We do not perceive a limitation to being nationwide if we can find the right locations. Over time, that can give us substantial room for growth.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

I get excited thinking about towns like Indianapolis or St. Louis, where we have historically been strong in urban areas. Opening Shoe Station stores in higher-income neighborhoods or shopping centers allows us to serve customers across the income spectrum. I see this as a tremendous long-term growth opportunity.

Marc A. ChiltonChief Operating Officer

If you look at some of our top markets, there are large sections of those markets where a Carnival store doesn't make sense. Shoe Station gives us the vehicle to complete those markets and provides room for growth in areas and states we already know well.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Two last ones. For Kerry, on the first quarter, can you give comp by month? And how is early Q2 trending?

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Directionally: February started out nicely and we were comping up low singles, then the shift in Easter affected comparisons and we ran into macro issues reflecting a slowdown in the consumer. The quarter ended much more difficult than it began.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Has that trend continued into May? I do not think it has gotten any better in May.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

That trend has continued into May. We believe we will see continuation of this trend until back-to-school because back-to-school is when we will have product and promotions aligned to how our customers shop. I'm excited about our buying for the fall — we saw a boot presentation recently that was the best I've seen, very targeted to the customer for each brand and banner. We've also reenergized the kids department, which had been downplayed in some rebanner decisions. As we get toward back-to-school, I believe you'll see a change in direction in our results.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

So this is when Kerry steps in and guides to a double-digit positive comp for the fourth quarter then, right?

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Yeah — that's why Kerry may not be thrilled with me for saying that. There is a change in direction with our product, and while geopolitical issues may still have an effect, I think we can overcome some of that with the product mix we've put in place.

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Thanks again. Part of why we felt comfortable reaffirming our earnings guidance is that even with the difficult trend in Q2, we see an opportunity in the second half. We expect to be down in the first half and up in the second half, which is reflected in our decision to reaffirm guidance.

Analyst (Mitchel Kummetz)Analyst

Great. Thanks.

OperatorOperator

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel Poser with Williams Trading. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Will the comp be better in Q2 than it was in Q1, given you will be in better position for back-to-school? And roughly how much of Q2 revenue is in July?

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Back-to-school really starts the third week of July and is an August play. We are going to be cautious about giving sales direction for Q2 at this stage until we have more clarity on the macro environment; it remains a wild card.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Kerry, you know how the business trends weekly. If things stay lousy, why not give directional guidance based on what you know today?

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

If the macro environment clears up quickly, we could see a rebound where consumers buy spring product and get more active at back-to-school earlier. If the macro environment does not improve, we may not get that rebound and might need to be more aggressive. That's why we are sticking with our annual guidance: we expect the first half to be down and the second half to be up.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Is the gross-margin outlook implying you'll run a more aggressive promotional cadence in the back half? And how do tariffs factor in?

W. Kerry JacksonChief Financial Officer

Yes. We will be more promotional in the second half as we clean inventories, which will compress margin. Also, last year we raised prices and were less competitive; that helped margin but was not sustainable. We have average unit cost pressures from tariffs, and in the first half we also have liquidation product to clear. Those components all play into the margin compression. We expect to rebound into the mid-30s margin range in fiscal 2027, assuming a reasonable economy.

Analyst (Samuel Poser)Analyst

Thank you very much.

OperatorOperator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Clint Sifford for closing remarks.

Clifton E. SiffordInterim President & CEO

Thank you for your questions and for joining us this morning. Before we close, I will leave you with three thoughts. First, the strategic review we completed in March and April has resolved the questions about our direction. The Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station banners are permanent independent components of this company's portfolio. The work from here is operational: getting the right product into the right stores, executing with discipline across the chain, and reconnecting with our customers at both banners. Second, the corrective actions we have set in motion are deliberately timed to support the back-to-school and fall selling periods, which represent the expected bulk of our annual earnings opportunity. The visible results of that work are expected to arrive during the third and fourth quarters, not the second. The team's focus through the summer will be execution against that plan. Third, we are reaffirming our previously communicated fiscal 2026 guidance, and we are doing so from a position of financial strength: $129 million in cash and marketable securities, no debt, and continued capital returns to shareholders during the first quarter. We believe we have both the time and the resources to execute this transition properly. I am confident in the management team you heard from this morning and the strategic review conclusions we have reached, and in the financial foundation from which we are operating. Tanya, Marc, Kerry, and I look forward to speaking with you in early September when we will announce our second quarter results and give an update on the important back-to-school selling season. Thank you for your interest in Shoe Carnival.

OperatorOperator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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