Prepared remarks
Good day, and welcome to the National CineMedia First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Chan Park, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Lesinski, and our Chief Financial Officer, Ronnie Ng. I would like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call, may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures. In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release or on the Investor Relations page of our website at ncm.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.
Thank you, Chan, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for our first quarter 2026 earnings call. We entered the year with strong momentum from the holiday period, both in attendance and advertiser demand, and our first quarter played out largely as we anticipated. Our results reflected typical seasonality, heightened competition tied to the Winter Olympics, and the impact of the one-week shift in the fiscal calendar that we highlighted last quarter. Adjusting for that timing difference, revenue would have increased modestly year-over-year, driven by moviegoer enthusiasm for box office hits at both ends of the quarter. On a reported basis, NCM delivered total revenue of $34 million and adjusted OIBDA of negative $10.5 million, both within the guidance ranges we provided last quarter. In terms of the first quarter, the domestic box office grew approximately 25% year-over-year, with attendance across our network reaching 83 million, up 15% versus the prior year. The gap to the broader box office primarily reflects the one-week calendar shift in our fiscal period and the impact of the Winter Olympics, neither of which impacted the first quarter of last year. Adjusting for that shift and including Spotlight in the prior year, attendance would have been up approximately 18% on a comparable basis. Within the quarter, performance was anchored by carryover strength from fourth quarter tentpoles, including the new Avatar and SpongeBob movies, before picking up in the final two weekends, powered by Project Hail Mary and early contributions from the Super Mario Galaxy Movie. The late quarter acceleration reinforces our view that 2026 is shaping up to be a more consistent and durable year for theatrical exhibition and positions us well as we enter into the second quarter. That momentum carried into our advertising results. Demand remained healthy, with six advertisers spending at or above the $1 million mark on cinema campaigns in the quarter. Total advertising revenue was $31.9 million, approximately in line with the prior year, driven by strength in insurance, media, automotive, and the pharmaceutical categories. This level of advertiser engagement is a testament to the value of NCM's industry-leading inventory and our demonstrated ability to deliver measurable, impactful outcomes for brands. We remain focused on strategically expanding the breadth and quality of our inventory, unlocking new opportunities to deepen our engagement with advertisers. In April, we announced a partnership to deploy large digital displays in high-impact lobby placements across 77% of AMC theaters nationwide, focusing on its highest traffic locations. Theater lobbies are a valuable, high-dwell-time environment and represent a natural opportunity for brands to extend their engagement with receptive audiences further across the moviegoing journey. The new lobby format complements our existing networks and expands our access to digital out-of-home advertiser budgets alongside our core premium video business. This digital lobby expansion presents a meaningful opportunity to deepen exhibitor and advertiser relationships and further strengthen our value proposition across the full moviegoing journey. We are continuing to develop our programmatic capabilities as well, and we continue to see the growing advertiser adoption and deeper engagement across our client base. In the first quarter, we saw approximately two times more programmatic orders than in the prior-year period, reflecting the effectiveness of the just-in-time nature of this buying channel. However, due to a small number of larger advertisers not returning as they focused their budgets on the Winter Olympics, programmatic revenue was softer versus the prior-year first quarter. This variability is characteristic of a channel that's still maturing, where deal concentration and timing can have an outsized impact on any given period. That said, second quarter programmatic revenue is pacing ahead of the prior year, and the underlying trends give us confidence that we're building programmatic in the right direction for growth in 2026. Local advertising revenue was $4.4 million in the first quarter. As we outlined on our last call, we are continuing to rebuild a stronger foundation for growth in our local business as we remain focused on the targeted investments in talent, structure, and execution underway to improve performance. While results will take time to reflect these efforts, we are encouraged by the progress we are making, as second quarter booked revenue is already ahead of last year's second quarter, and we remain confident in the long-term opportunity for local. Turning to NCMx, our proprietary data platform. We continue to enhance targeting, planning, and measurement capabilities for advertisers. During the quarter, we announced a new partnership with VideoAmp, further integrating cinema into a unified cross-platform planning premium video ecosystem. This marks the first time advertisers and agencies can plan cinema alongside linear TV, CTV, and digital video within a single view. We also extended NCMx coverage to our recently acquired Spotlight inventory, an important step in unlocking the full value of that high-end inventory and deepening our appeal to premium and luxury advertisers. Alongside these continued investments, we've taken proactive steps to better align our operating model with the evolving needs of the business. During the first quarter, we implemented an operational transformation to streamline the organization and accelerate our adoption of AI where it creates the most leverage. These efforts are concentrated in areas that enhance efficiency across our supporting infrastructure while preserving the strength and momentum of our revenue-generating teams and commercial initiatives. Collectively, these actions are expected to generate approximately $11 million in annualized cost savings on a run-rate basis, positioning us for more agile and efficient execution and creating capacity to continue reinvesting in the platform for future growth. Ronnie will provide additional details on this in a few moments. While we continue to evolve the business, our core value proposition remains unchanged: connecting advertisers with highly engaged, sought-after audience demographics in a premium environment on the biggest screens in America at scale. Looking ahead, we remain encouraged by a compelling 2026 film slate designed to reach diverse audience segments. This year's box office performance is expected to be weighted toward the back half of the year, supported by a mix of beloved franchise installments and reimagined classics with built-in audience appeal alongside a broader range of highly anticipated new IP titles. This robust slate, including such films as Toy Story 5, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Moana, is expected to draw a broad range of audience cohorts, further supporting advertiser demand. Further, we are encouraged by strong exhibition industry sentiment at this year's CinemaCon in April, where each of the major studios voiced concerted support for the theatrical business, underscoring the importance of the big screen with the broader entertainment ecosystem. Notably, Amazon reconfirmed its commitment to at least 15 theatrical releases per year, while Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery reiterated plans to release approximately 30 films theatrically, reinforcing confidence in a consistent cadence of future releases. Taken together, this year's CinemaCon commentary supports a positive outlook for the exhibition landscape. With strong industry tailwinds and continued focus on operational optimization, NCM is well positioned to capitalize on box office strength in the quarters ahead. Now I'll turn the call over to Ronnie to provide you with more details on our operating results and outlook.
Thank you, Tom, and good afternoon, everyone. As Tom noted, first quarter performance was shaped by typical seasonal softness, increased competition for advertising spend driven by the Winter Olympics, and the one-week shift in the fiscal period that we discussed on our last earnings call. Each of these factors was expected, and the quarter was broadly consistent with what we projected entering the year. Total revenue for the first quarter was $34 million, within our guidance range and reflecting the anticipated factors I just outlined. First quarter total advertising revenue was $31.9 million, compared with $32.3 million in the prior-year period. On a comparable basis, when adjusted for the calendar shift and pro forma for the inclusion of Spotlight in the first quarter of 2025, total advertising revenue was approximately flat year-over-year, with national being more affected by the Winter Olympics and local exhibiting strong growth. National advertising revenue was $27.5 million, approximately flat versus the prior year, with strength in the insurance, automotive, and pharmaceutical categories. Adjusting for the shifted fiscal period and pro forma to include Spotlight in the prior period, national revenue would have been down by approximately 2%. This was primarily due to certain deals within the Spotlight network not returning this quarter. Conversely, NCM's legacy network grew national revenue by 2% compared to the prior year, with utilization increasing over 20%, offset by a decline in CPMs. While pricing for national was positive in the first two months of the year, March experienced pricing declines due to budgets that were already allocated to the Winter Olympics, limiting demand at the end of the quarter. Demand for our Platinum inventory remains strong, reflecting the continued benefit of standardizing our preshow format across the major exhibitor networks last year. On a calendar-adjusted basis, Platinum was up 83% versus the prior year, and revenue per attendee was up over 54% for the same period. Local advertising revenue totaled $4.4 million, down versus the prior year, primarily due to the calendar differences as discussed previously. However, adjusting for the shifted fiscal period and pro forma for the inclusion of Spotlight, local advertising revenue would have been up 12% in the comparable period, and revenue per attendee would have only declined approximately 4%. Looking at the categories within local, we saw strength within travel and wireless, offset by reduced activity within government, education, and health care. As Tom noted, we are focused on rebuilding this business through a more structured and targeted approach. While this will take time, we believe we are taking the right actions to position local for more sustainable growth over the long term. And we are further encouraged by second quarter bookings, which are already ahead of last year's second quarter local revenue. Operating expenses for the first quarter were $60.9 million versus $58.8 million in the prior-year period. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by an increase in attendance-related exhibitor fees and approximately $3.6 million of one-time costs related to our operational transformation. On an adjusted basis, operating expenses were $44.5 million, primarily driven by a 13% year-over-year increase in exhibitor fees related to the increase in attendance, and offset by a 10% year-over-year reduction in SG&A. To provide a bit more detail on the operational transformation, these efforts are focused on aligning our cost structure with the current needs of the business and creating capacity to continue investing in our highest return priorities. We are targeting the initiative to generate approximately $11 million in annualized cost savings, including synergies from our acquisition of Spotlight. This is measured against our 2025 adjusted SG&A of $89.5 million, pro forma for a full year of combined operations with Spotlight. Given the timing of the program's launch, the complete run rate benefit will be fully reflected in our results beginning in 2027. In the meantime, execution is well underway, and we have already actioned $3 million of the annualized savings to date and the remainder on track to be completed by mid-summer. As a result, we expect to realize up to $6 million of savings in full year 2026. Operating loss for the first quarter was $26.9 million, reflecting the top line and operating expense drivers I just outlined. Adjusted OIBDA was negative $10.5 million, at the better end of our guidance range. Year-over-year performance reflects higher exhibitor fees driven by attendance growth, partially offset by disciplined cost management and early benefits from our operational transformation. Turning to cash flow. First quarter unlevered free cash flow was $18.1 million, compared with $5.5 million in the prior-year period, supported by a normalization in working capital from the fourth quarter. At the end of the first quarter, NCM had $51.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities. Our total debt position at quarter end remained at $12 million. Turning to shareholder returns, beginning with our dividend program. We announced a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share today, amounting to $2.8 million. This quarter's dividend will be paid on June 4, 2026, to stockholders of record as of May 22, 2026. Turning to share repurchases. NCM repurchased approximately 210,000 shares in the first quarter for a total of approximately $820,000 at an average price of $3.93 per share. Share repurchases have historically been an important tool for returning capital to shareholders, and we are proud of the progress we have made. As we look ahead, our priorities are evolving in a way we believe is firmly aligned with shareholders' best interests as we continue to take a disciplined, returns-focused approach to capital allocation. We are seeing a compelling set of investment opportunities within the business, including rebuilding our local business, enhancing our programmatic and self-serve capabilities, and strengthening inventory across our network, where the return profile compares favorably to repurchases at current levels. As such, we intend to allocate capital accordingly. Now turning to our guidance. For the second quarter, we expect revenue to be between $57 million and $63 million, and adjusted OIBDA to be between $1 million and $5 million. Our guidance reflects the strong outlook in the overall slate for the second quarter, which is expected to drive a year-over-year increase in attendance and higher theater exhibition fees. Additionally, we anticipate improved monetization in the quarter, driven by our unified Platinum network and stronger local performance. With an improving industry backdrop, a robust slate, and sustained advertiser demand, we remain optimistic about the year ahead. As we move through the year, we will remain focused on driving efficiency through disciplined execution and thoughtful capital allocation, positioning NCM to benefit from the stronger release slate and a more favorable demand environment. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Questions and answers
We will now conduct the question-and-answer session. The first question is from Patrick Sholl with Barrington Research.
Just a quick question first on your revenue outlook for Q2 and any commentary on the end of the second half of the year. Any impact you're seeing on the macro environment and how that's impacting advertisers in specific categories, especially comparing against the tariffs this past year and the Middle East conflict as to how that's shaping up the macro environment?
Let me start in a more general response, and then Ronnie can be more specific. In terms of macro things like tariffs and what's happening with oil prices, I don't think we're seeing a significant impact from that so far, although we're cautiously optimistic that it won't have an impact for the rest of the year. There are certainly some parts of our business that would be more affected by a sustained petroleum cost increase. From a macro point of view, we haven't really seen it yet, and we don't expect we'll see anything material in the second half. But this conflict's only been going on for a short period of time. I'll turn it to Ronnie on any more specific comments he might have about Q2.
Yes. Patrick, thanks for the question. If you look at the two different markets that we're in, both national and local, I'll start with local first. The local business in the first quarter was quite strong, as we said on the call. First quarter was up 12% year-over-year. The second quarter, we're continuing that momentum, and our expectation is the second quarter will do much better than last year. So in terms of the local market, we're seeing strong demand and great execution. In terms of the national market, again, the NCM network for the first quarter for national was up actually 2% when you adjust for the right calendar periods. Right now, what we're seeing in terms of pacing in national is that it is pacing well. It's pacing ahead of last year. Even though we're not seeing much impact today, obviously we're keeping a close eye on what's going on with the rest of the world.
Okay. And then on the in-lobby boards, can you talk about the ad formats those would be in — would it be video or more static displays — and how you're positioning that or selling that as part of the broader ad buy for the people utilizing the big screen?
You're talking about the AMC initiative, which we're really excited about. It's going to be rolling out pretty soon. It's going to be in nearly 80% of AMC's theaters. In terms of the format, it is going to be primarily video. That's the business that we're in today on the big screen. We suspect that it will be largely video, and it will follow typically what people are currently doing either in digital out-of-home formats today or in traditional premium video formats. So there may be some new creative done specifically for these big screens. As we roll it out, we expect this to be completed by the end of the year. We expect there'll be a lot of experimenting with different kinds of creative, including using interactive elements like QR codes to link ads back to sponsor websites.
The next question is from Eric Wold with Texas Capital.
A couple of questions. I'll start with a follow-up on the lobby initiative. How should we think about that as an ability to unlock additional budgets? Do you expect it to be completely separate from the budgets that are on the theater screen? And does this indicate a broader desire to diversify away from theaters eventually? If you did diversify, would that need to be done by M&A or can it be done organically?
When we look at the lobby, we view it as a new incremental business. Historically, it's been somewhat of an afterthought for movie theaters and for movie theater advertising companies. With this investment in the size of the screens and in the highest-traffic ones, we see it primarily as incremental. While some will be sold with the big screen, much of it is going to be sold programmatically through digital out-of-home platforms, which will allow us to control pricing as well as the actual source in terms of the advertiser. So to answer your question, it's going to be largely incremental and separate. On diversification, this was designed as a high-growth medium adjacent to cinema. The lobby is different; it's a high-dwell-time area that we believe can be monetized. Yes, it's cinema-goers, but it's cinema-goers before and after the movie, often near a restaurant or a bar that might even be in the venue. This is an adjacent diversification. As it relates to M&A, we're always looking at opportunities, but we won't comment on any M&A specifics on the earnings call.
And maybe update us on your thoughts about the ability to be involved with political ad spending, especially in the local market heading into the midterms. Any sense of what percentage of the network would be open to political ads? How much control will theaters need to have in terms of what ads are shown politically versus the normal input they have? And generally, do you think that could be a driver?
It's an important opportunity for us. It truly varies by exhibitor in terms of who allows what type of political advertising. There's been more openness than in the past. It is very specific to certain markets. There are probably a couple dozen local markets that are highly desirable for saturation-level advertising, and fortunately we're in most of those markets with our theaters. I can't really size the opportunity yet. We're making a big push with a different type of advertiser; this is not like going to your typical agency. We've been rapidly engaging the agencies that control a lot of these budgets. It's an area we care a lot about. Significant money is being poured into local elections, and we think cinema advertising, especially when it's done tastefully, will be a great opportunity for us and for exhibitors.
The next question is from Mike Hickey with StoneX.
On the topic of CinemaCon, there's a lot of industry focus and excitement this year about attendance strength from younger audiences, Gen Z and Gen Alpha. You guys have talked about that before, but it seems like growth-wise it's accelerating. How important do you think that broader shift is for your business, and do you think it's fully resonated with media buyers yet?
We've always been a very attractive medium demographically, with our core demo being very young — our average audience age is just over 30 years old. The addition of Gen Alpha, which is even younger, is a really positive trend. Many of these people were affected by COVID and by staying at home during that time, and that resurgence will lower our average demographic, which makes the audience even more valuable. We're already talking to advertisers about it. This information is relatively new in terms of quantifying it — possibly three to six months old — but it's a great trend for our business because the younger the audience, the more valuable they are. We expect active responses from our agencies and client partners to this enhanced younger demographic.
Two questions on guidance. Your revenue growth is very strong, mid-teens for Q2. The debate is whether the box office grows in Q2. I think I heard you say you expect attendance to grow year-over-year in Q2. If attendance disappoints, how would that impact your view for Q2? It seems like it could cut both ways depending on how it breaks at the end of the quarter.
I'll respond generally and then Ronnie can add specifics. Attendance is obviously critical to driving overall impressions on our platform. Getting the attendance forecast right and matching it with advertiser demand is key to our ability to monetize and drive EBITDA. The attendance in Q2 right now, based on our sources, appears to be strong. You never know for sure how these things will play out; I've done this a long time in the movie business, and it's tricky to get right. Ronnie, do you want to add anything about...
Yes. As we said on the call, our expectations for the second quarter are that attendance will be up versus the prior year. You can see that reflected in our guidance. The range is wide enough that if attendance falls short, we would be in the lower end of our guide. We've considered different scenarios for attendance, but our base case is that we expect increases in the second quarter.
Okay. Last question from us on guidance, focusing on margin. If you look at a comparable level of business on revenue — for example, Q3 2025 you did about $63 million in revenue and delivered $10 million in EBITDA, a 16% margin — when you look at the high end of your Q2 guide, you're at a similar revenue range but $5 million in EBITDA, an 8% margin. Can you walk us through what's structurally different in the business today and what's driving that margin gap?
One of the main differences is the number of attendees, which is the largest driver of expenses. The specifics around attendance materially influence margin. The third quarter last year benefited from a relatively strong September versus prior years, which helped revenue per attendee for that quarter; September is typically a lower-attendance month, so that helped margin last year. In the second quarter this year, even if revenue levels look similar, attendance levels are different, and that impacts margins.
The next question is from Alicia Reese with Wedbush Securities.
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the expected impact of World Cup advertisers focusing on that and compare that to what you saw with the Olympics. What's embedded in guidance? And could you talk about NCMx — the progress on NCM Boost, Boomerang, Bullseye, Blueprint — where you've made progress and where you see work remaining over the course of the year? I have one follow-up if there's time.
On the World Cup, cultural moments like the Olympics or the World Cup do affect advertising budgets, and money that would ordinarily be spread across many platforms can shift into World Cup-related buys. We have World Cup content in our preshow, and we're doing what we can to help monetize that. The World Cup will have some impact, and it's accounted for in our current forecast. Ronnie, do you want to add anything about the World Cup?
In terms of the World Cup, any potential impact is baked into our guidance range for the second quarter. We continue to pace strongly overall. The impact is more on national versus local. For the national business, we're pacing ahead of where we were at this point last year.
On the NCMx front, we've been documenting growth every quarter. The partnership with VideoAmp furthers integration of cinema into a unified cross-platform planning ecosystem. We're ahead of competitors in digital products that help validate the effectiveness of advertising as a full-funnel solution. We've also added the Spotlight inventory into NCMx. NCMx is an important initiative we've been working on for almost two years to demonstrate that cinema is both a great attention medium and a strong way to create outcomes for advertisers. We're proud of it, and it's drawing a lot of attention to cinema as a full-funnel solution.
Perfect. And to that point, anything to report back on this year's upfronts?
The upfronts for the major networks started this week. We've been talking to advertisers about planning for cinema in the upfront market for almost three months. It's too early to gauge the full impact, since the upfronts literally started on Monday for big television advertisers and some large digital players. We'll provide an update in the next earnings call on any feedback we see in the upfront. We're expecting the upfront to be strong, and we've already gotten ahead of the curve on it, so we're optimistic about growing our share year-over-year.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Lesinski for any closing remarks.
Thank you so much for joining us today, and we appreciate your continued support of National CineMedia. The first quarter reflects meaningful progress on our clear 2026 priorities: growing attendance, monetization, deepening our value to advertisers, and building a more efficient and scalable operating foundation. Underlying demand remains healthy, and we're confident that the steps we're taking will strengthen NCM's ability to capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead. Looking ahead, we're entering the balance of the year with a strong and diverse film slate, healthy advertiser demand, and a more efficient and productive organization. The actions we are taking today across utilization, inventory expansion, and cost structure are designed to position NCM to capture the opportunity more effectively and translate it into sustainable long-term growth. We remain confident in our strategy and in our ability to deliver increasing value for our exhibitor partners, our advertising clients, and our shareholders over time. Lastly, thank you to the NCM team for their continued hard work and commitment, and we'll see you at the movies. Thank you.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.