Prepared remarks
Good day, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2026 Nabors Industries Ltd. Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, please press *1. To withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. William Cornelius Conroy, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Nabors' second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today, we will follow our customary format with Tony Petrello, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Miguel Rodriguez, our Chief Financial Officer, providing their perspectives on the quarter's results along with insights into our markets and how we expect Nabors to perform in these markets. In support of these remarks, a slide deck is available both as a download within the webcast and in the Investor Relations section of nabors.com. Instructions for the replay of this call are posted on the website as well. With us today, in addition to Tony, Miguel and me, are other members of the senior management team. Since much of our commentary today will include our forward expectations, they may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, as disclosed by Nabors from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As a result of these factors, our actual results may vary materially from those indicated or implied by such forward-looking statements. Also, during the call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as net debt, adjusted operating income, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow. All references to EBITDA made by either Tony or Miguel during their presentations, whether qualified by the word adjusted or otherwise, mean adjusted EBITDA, as that term is defined on our website and in our earnings release. Likewise, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, references to cash flow mean adjusted free cash flow, as that non-GAAP measure is defined in our earnings release. We have posted to the Investor Relations section of our website a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most recently comparable GAAP measures. With that, I will turn the call over to Tony to begin.
Good morning. Thank you for joining us to review our second quarter 2026 results. Once again, we delivered strong operational execution and achieved several strategic milestones. Let's start with our financial results. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $222 million, well above our expectations. We exceeded the guidance we provided last quarter across all four reporting segments. Daily margins were especially strong in our Lower 48 and International Drilling businesses. This metric expanded sequentially in both operations, outperforming our guidance. Those gains reflect disciplined commercial execution, operational excellence, and outstanding work by our teams around the world. The quarter also included several significant milestones. First, our SANAD joint venture placed another new-build rig into service in 2026. SANAD also returned one previously suspended rig to work. Two of SANAD's three suspended rigs are now back on contract.
We also began drilling on Quaise Energy's Project Obsidian in Oregon. This project represents the first commercial application of super-hot enhanced geothermal systems. The project is ultimately targeted to deliver gigawatt-scale geothermal power. Additionally, we commissioned two of our highest specification PACE-X ultra rigs for a supermajor, one in South Texas and the other in East Texas. In our Rig Technologies business, Canrig introduced its first advanced fully automated Titan rig floor wrench into commercial service. Early field results have been exceptional. Titan combines superior torque accuracy, faster connection time, consistent makeup in one pass, and lower cost of ownership in a simpler machine. That is an unmatched combination in a rig floor wrench today. Finally, NDS's ROC drill string oscillation software secured an important competitive win. ROC displaced an incumbent competitor on multiple third-party rigs.
This win demonstrates ROC's technology leadership and compelling value proposition. Next, I will discuss our key international markets. I will also outline why Nabors is strongly positioned to gain share and grow earnings in each of them. Our international footprint focuses on key markets across the Middle East and Latin America. Saudi Arabia remains the cornerstone of this business. The Saudi land rig market continues to recover. Approximately 196 land rigs are currently operating in the kingdom. That number is up by four compared to last quarter. It is up by 35 from this market's recent low in the third quarter of 2025. The current count still stands 28 rigs below the peak in early 2024. Our SANAD joint venture currently operates 55 rigs in the kingdom. That number includes 16 rigs delivered through the new-build program and previously suspended rigs that have returned to service. With a 28% market share, SANAD is the largest land drilling contractor in Saudi Arabia.
In addition to this scale, our fleet aligns well with the kingdom's strategic priorities. Of the industry's land rigs running currently in the kingdom, approximately two-thirds work in natural gas. SANAD's gas exposure is even greater—nearly three-quarters in gas. This positions SANAD at the center of Saudi Aramco's investment in expanding natural gas production. Despite regional geopolitical tensions, SANAD's operations have continued without interruption and the growth ahead is substantial. Thirty-four rigs remain to be delivered under the 50-rig new-build program. SANAD has a clear runway for additional earnings growth over the next several years. Beyond Saudi Arabia, our Gulf business continues to perform exceptionally well. In both Kuwait and Oman, our rigs have operated continuously since the commencement of the conflict. In Kuwait, we have three deep gas exploration rigs running. They are on long-term contracts that commenced in 2025.
The opportunity extends well beyond today's fleet. Kuwait continues investing in gas development. Current tender activity for additional high-specification rigs supports our expectation that this market will expand. In Oman, we have four rigs running. They continue to perform well. Multiple tenders are now underway, which could create additional opportunities across several operators. Taken together, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman provide a strong growth corridor in our international portfolio. Our high-specification fleet and long-standing customer relationships position us well to capture incremental work. On top of our rig businesses in the region, NDS has established significant market positions in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. NDS holds the number one market share in casing running in both countries. These two geographies already rank as the second and third largest international contributors to NDS' EBITDA.
Next, I will shift over to Latin America, starting with Argentina. Argentina continues to be one of Nabors' most compelling international success stories. We are currently operating 13 rigs in the country. Another is earning revenue under an O&M contract. The client base is well diversified. Our fleet currently works for five different operators. With a 30% market share, Nabors holds the largest position in the country. We are now mobilizing another rig to Argentina. That will bring the Nabors total to 14 rigs, further extending our leadership in this market. Of our working fleet in Argentina, at the end of the quarter, five were formerly idle units in the Lower 48. This demonstrates our ability to optimize assets globally under long-term contracts. We can generate attractive returns without incurring incremental new-build capital. The value of Argentina extends beyond drilling. Our Drilling Solutions business has become deeply embedded in the development of the Vaca Muerta.
The client base there has widely adopted the NDS technology portfolio. NDS accounts for approximately 46% of our EBITDA in Argentina in the first half of 2026. This marks the highest contribution of any country in our portfolio. Illustrating our strategy of the rig-as-a-platform in action, we combine premium drilling rigs with differentiated technology to optimize performance, increase margins, deepen customer relationships, and expand returns beyond the rig itself. We believe Argentina is one of the most attractive international growth markets. Our view is supported by world-class resources, compelling project economics, and an increasingly stable operating environment. I will wrap up the international market discussion with Venezuela. The outlook there has improved materially this year. Today's drilling activity remains limited, with less than a handful of rigs running. By comparison, in 2013, more than 85 rigs were operating.
Given the large resource base in the country and the proximity to suitable refining capacity, Venezuela holds enormous potential. Nabors has a long history in Venezuela. One of our predecessor companies, Laughlin Brothers, started there nearly 70 years ago. Today, we have five idle rigs in the country. We are well positioned should activity resume. Several large operators have expressed interest in restarting drilling programs. Under the right commercial conditions, Venezuela has the potential to become another meaningful contributor to our international business over time. To summarize the international environment, the broader picture is encouraging. Across our existing international footprint, we are tracking opportunities representing more than 40 incremental rigs. This number, across 10 countries, indicates a robust market for additional rigs. That opportunity set reflects the strength of our customer relationships, the quality of our rig fleet, and the increasing demand for high-performance drilling and technology solutions.
As always, our approach remains disciplined and selective. We will pursue only those opportunities that meet our return thresholds and strengthen long-term shareholder value. I will conclude my remarks on the international markets with the following: Our Arabian Gulf operations continue without interruption, demonstrating the resilience of our people, infrastructure, and customer relationships. SANAD continues to strengthen its leadership position in Saudi Arabia through new-build deliveries and returning suspended rigs to service. Argentina showcases the power of our integrated strategy, combining drilling and technology to deliver industry-leading returns. Venezuela presents an improving long-term opportunity where our fleet and technology position us to capture additional upside. Next, let me turn to the U.S. Lower 48. The industry strengthened during the second quarter. From the end of the first quarter to the end of the second quarter, the Baker Hughes Lower 48 land rig count increased by 31 rigs, or 6%.
This marks a notable upward turn after the modest decline in the first quarter. This compares to the most recent high of 568 set in February 2025. The Baker quarterly average rig count increased by five rigs, or 1%, in the second quarter. Looking a bit deeper at the Lower 48 industry in the second quarter, the Baker end-of-quarter oil rig count increased by 8%. The gas rig count declined slightly. By region, the oil-directed increase was concentrated in the Permian, the Austin Chalk, and the Granite Wash. In terms of operator type, per Enverus, public operators held flat while private operator activity increased sequentially by 17%. To sum up, the growth in the Lower 48 rig market during the quarter was oil, it was in Texas, and it was generally smaller operators. Our experience, however, looked different—and we believe better. We had a five-rig start count during the second quarter. These were a mix of oil, gas, and geothermal.
Our activity was diversified across regions. Importantly, two of those contracts came from a supermajor. That distinction matters. Larger operators tend to run longer-duration drilling programs. They adopt advanced technologies earlier and provide greater earnings visibility than smaller independents. By quarter end, nearly 70% of our working Lower 48 fleet served publicly traded operators. That customer mix continues to differentiate Nabors. Let me conclude with a few comments on this market's economics. The improving utilization environment is beginning to translate into stronger financial performance. During the quarter, our Lower 48 daily revenue improved more than $900 sequentially. At the same time, we added term to our Lower 48 contract backlog. By quarter end, more than 45% of our rigs in this market had at least six months of remaining duration. We expect to be at approximately 50% in the third quarter.
Looking ahead, our quarterly survey of large Lower 48 operators indicates a constructive outlook. This group accounted for approximately 43% of this market's working rig count. They increased their rig count by 12 rigs during the second quarter. This increase was concentrated among four operators. A quarter ago, the survey indicated a 15-rig addition through the end of the year; those were mainly in just two operators. In the second quarter, these two operators accounted for just a few of the group's increased rig count. Also, a quarter ago, I mentioned that the sentiment reflected in the survey favored incremental activity above the expected rig count. Some of this positive sentiment translated into actual rig additions during the quarter. Now, looking through the end of 2026, the survey reveals another 11 rigs expected to be added, concentrated in two operators. Taken together, customer plans, improving utilization, and stronger commercial conditions all support our confidence in continued activity and pricing momentum through the balance of this year and into 2027.
Next, I will make a few remarks about our technology and innovation. Technology remains one of Nabors' most important competitive advantages. Our strategy is straightforward: develop technologies that improve drilling performance, expand customer returns, and increase the earnings power of every rig we operate. Second quarter again demonstrated that strategy at work. Our Nabors-owned Lower 48 rigs' NDS revenue increased sequentially by 11%, outpacing fleet growth. This was led by MPD and Rig Cloud, demonstrating continued customer adoption of higher-value software and automation solutions. The same pattern is evident on third-party rigs. While third-party average rig count increased only 1%, NDS revenue grew 12%. Strong demand for our software products produced this result. That spread illustrates an important point: our technology business is growing because customers are adopting more of our solutions.
Earlier, I mentioned a deployment of two PACE-X ultra rigs. Those rigs entered service fully equipped with the NDS technology suite. Including technology offerings, daily revenue meaningfully exceeds $40,000 per rig. That demonstrates the economic power of integrating premium rigs with premium technology and highlights our rig-as-a-platform strategy at work. It creates higher revenue, stronger margins, deeper customer relationships, and greater differentiation than either business could achieve independently. That remains one of Nabors' clearest competitive advantages. Now let me turn to Miguel to discuss our financial results in detail.
Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. As Tony highlighted, we delivered a strong second quarter, exceeding the outlook we provided in April. This performance was broad based, with every operating segment ahead of expectations, led by Lower 48 and International Drilling. In International Drilling, our Middle East operations continued without disruption and maintained a powerful tempo despite conflict-related challenges in the region. The financial impact of the related cost pressure was broadly in line with our guidance, reflecting exceptionally strong execution by our teams and the resilience of our global supply chain. In our Lower 48 operation, rig count and margins exceeded our expectations, supported by improved pricing, longer contract duration, and deep relationships with high-quality customers, all while maintaining disciplined commercial execution. Collectively, these results underscore the strength of our portfolio, the durability of our earnings power, and our ability to convert activity into a stronger financial performance.
Turning to the financials, I will review our second quarter sequential performance and then provide our outlook for the third quarter. Then I will conclude with updates on capital allocation and adjusted free cash flow. In the second quarter, consolidated revenue was $815 million, an increase of $31 million or 4% sequentially, with growth across every operating segment. EBITDA reached $222 million, exceeding the upper end of our implied guidance. EBITDA margin expanded 107 basis points to 27.2%, a very strong 54% fall-through. This performance reflects outstanding portfolio-wide execution. Turning to our segment results: International Drilling revenue was $432 million, an increase of $13 million or 3.1%. EBITDA increased to $131 million, up $9 million or 7.6%. EBITDA margin expanded 127 basis points to 30.2%, with a robust 71% fall-through. The segment's EBITDA performance exceeded the target implied by our guidance for activity and daily margins.
Average rig count increased from 92.6 to 93.4. Growth was driven by the deployment of two SANAD rigs in Saudi Arabia—the 16th new-build—and the resumption of a previously suspended rig, and the full quarter contribution from rigs that commenced operations in the first quarter. These additions were partially offset by the contract roll off of two lower-margin rigs, one in Algeria and one in India. Average daily rig margin increased to $17.5 thousand, up $654 sequentially, and above the high end of our guidance range. The improvement reflects the benefit of recent rig deployments, strong commercial and operational execution, and normal contract transitions across the portfolio. Moving on to U.S. Drilling, revenue increased to $252 million, up $11 million or 4.7% sequentially. EBITDA increased to $94 million, up $6 million or 6.8%. EBITDA margin expanded 75 basis points to 37.3%, with a solid 53% fall-through.
These results exceeded our implied guidance driven by our performance in the Lower 48, which resulted from stronger activity, improved pricing, and continued operating discipline yielding a robust Lower 48 EBITDA improvement of 11%. Our combined Alaska and offshore businesses performed in line with our expectations. Within U.S. Drilling, Lower 48 revenue increased by $27 million, up $15 million or 7.8%, driven by activity growth and improved pricing. During the quarter, we added five rigs across all our major basins while maintaining commercial discipline. This growth reflects the strength of our client relationships, the demand for our highest specification fleet, and our operational execution. Average working rig count increased by 2.5 to 67.8, reaching the upper band of our guidance range. We exited the second quarter with 71 rigs working and have since increased activity to 73 rigs. Average daily revenue increased by $902 to $33.6 thousand, driven by rigs rolling onto new contracts at higher rates.
Leading-edge pricing continues to improve, supporting our expectation for progressively higher rates as utilization tightens. Currently, leading-edge daily revenue has increased into the low to mid-$30 thousands range. We are confident that our pricing will reach or exceed the mid-$30 thousands as we progress through the balance of this year and into 2027. Average daily margin increased by $107 to $13.8 thousand—approximately $500 higher than our guidance—driven by pricing gains in a tightening market and a strong operational performance. Turning to Alaska and U.S. offshore: on a combined basis, revenue was $46 million and EBITDA was $15 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 33.5%, in line with our guidance. Now to Drilling Solutions. NDS revenue increased by $4 million or 4.2% to $111 million. EBITDA increased by $1 million or 3.5% to $40 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 36.2%.
EBITDA was 3% above our guidance, primarily supported by higher penetration across both Nabors and third-party rigs in the Lower 48—up 11% and 12%, respectively. Internationally, continued growth in Saudi Arabia and Argentina was partially offset by lower asset sales in certain markets. NDS remains a strong cash generator, converting approximately 90% of EBITDA into free cash flow during the quarter, underscoring the strength of its capital-light operating model. Now on to Rig Technologies. Revenue increased to $37 million, up 37.7%. EBITDA improved to $3.2 million, modestly exceeding our guidance. The improvement was driven by higher activity across the portfolio led by stronger performance in the Middle East. Turning into our third quarter outlook: In International Drilling, we expect average rig count to range between 94 and 96, supported by the deployment of the 17th SANAD new-build rig in Saudi Arabia, the redeployment of an idle U.S. rig to Argentina, and the commencement of a short-term geothermal contract in Indonesia.
We expect to exit the third quarter with 96 rigs working. Average daily gross margin is expected to improve to a range of $18.1 thousand to $18.4 thousand. This increase reflects the contribution from higher-margin rig additions and continued strong execution, despite persistent cost friction related to the Middle East conflict. Turning to U.S. Drilling, we expect the average Lower 48 working rig count to increase to approximately 73 and to exit the quarter with 74 rigs operating. Daily adjusted gross margin is expected to remain approximately flat with the second quarter at $13.8 thousand, as fewer near-term renewal opportunities limit additional pricing gains. We expect U.S. industry activity to build progressively supported by stable oil prices and an improving outlook for natural gas demand. At the same time, operators remain disciplined in allocating capital, reinforcing a selective, performance-driven market that aligns well with Nabors' highest specification fleet and operating capabilities.
As industry utilization continues to improve, the supply of readily deployable super-spec rigs is becoming increasingly constrained. Against that backdrop, we will continue to evaluate reactivation opportunities through a disciplined capital allocation framework, investing only where expected returns and contract duration justify the capital required. We are encouraged by the incremental opportunities we see through the remainder of the year. Turning to Alaska and U.S. offshore combined, we expect EBITDA of approximately $11 million, reflecting lower activity in the offshore business. For Drilling Solutions, we expect EBITDA to increase by 5% sequentially to approximately $42 million, driven by continued technology adoption and activity growth. For Rig Technologies, EBITDA is expected to improve to a range of $5 million to $6 million. Overall, we expect our consolidated EBITDA margin to increase by approximately 100 basis points in the third quarter.
Next, I will discuss our capital allocation and adjusted free cash flow. Second quarter capital expenditures totaled $158 million, essentially in line sequentially and below our guidance range, primarily due to timing of a few SANAD new-build milestones. Total CapEx included $46 million associated with the SANAD new-build program. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect capital expenditures of $245 million to $255 million, including approximately $130 million for these new builds. For the full year, we now expect consolidated capital expenditures of $710 million to $730 million, including $325 million to $335 million for the SANAD new-build program. The reduction in SANAD's new-build outlook reflects the movement of certain construction milestones into early 2027. Beyond SANAD, improving activity in the Lower 48 and certain international markets could create additional investment opportunities.
We are very well positioned to participate selectively, deploying capital only where the customer and opportunity are strategic and the commercial terms meet our return thresholds. We remain firmly committed to capital discipline and expect the spending to remain within our updated guidance range. Turning to free cash flow: during the second quarter, Nabors generated consolidated adjusted free cash flow of $12 million, modestly above our guidance. The mix differed from our expectations, reflecting the timing of SANAD new-build milestones and slower collections in Mexico and the United States. SANAD generated positive free cash flow of $38 million while the business outside SANAD used approximately $26 million. We view the collections headwind as timing-related and expect this will normalize over the balance of the year. For the third quarter, we expect to use approximately $40 million of consolidated adjusted free cash flow, including approximately $65 million of cash consumption by SANAD.
The second quarter demonstrated the strength of our operating platform with each business segment outperforming our expectations. We are encouraged by the momentum in the Lower 48, the strong tempo in our international performance, and the continued growth across our technology businesses. Reflecting our strong first-half performance and the continued business momentum, we now expect full-year EBITDA of $920 million to $930 million, above both our prior expectations and the prior year level. We believe we are well positioned to exceed our full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance and now expect to generate $20 million to $30 million even with SANAD consuming $60 million to $80 million. We remain committed to reducing gross debt by at least $100 million during 2026, consistent with our long-term objective of reducing net leverage to approximately one turn. With that, I will turn the call back to Tony.
Thank you, Miguel. Let me leave you with three thoughts. First, we exceeded our implied EBITDA guidance across every reporting segment. That reflects disciplined execution throughout the company. Second, our international franchise continues to strengthen. It is unique and second to none. SANAD added another new-build, returned additional suspended capacity to work, and remains on track with its expansion program, creating a long runway for profitable growth. Third, the Lower 48 continues to validate our strategy. Premium rigs, integrated technology, and operational excellence are expanding margins, increasing customer adoption, and improving the quality of our earnings. If there are two takeaways from today's discussion, they are: Nabors is executing from a position of strength, and we deliver on our commitments. Our international business continues to grow. Our Lower 48 franchise is capturing improving market conditions.
Our technology portfolio is becoming an increasingly important driver of earnings and differentiation. And across the company, we are improving margins, strengthening cash generation, and raising the quality of the business. We are pursuing growth with discipline. We are allocating capital where returns justify investment. And we are leveraging our global platform and technology leadership to create durable value for our shareholders. We still see significant opportunity ahead and we are well positioned to capture it. Thank you for your time this morning. We will now take your questions.
Questions and answers
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press *1 on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Our first question for today will come from Daniel Kutz with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Grant. Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions.
Good morning, Dan.
Morning.
So I wanted to start on the U.S. Lower 48. You added five rigs during the quarter, you currently sit at 73, expect to exit 3Q at 74 rigs and then expand slightly from there. I know it is a bit early, but could you just talk to how you are thinking about the puts and takes on activity and pricing as we get into the fourth quarter as well as into 2027? And then I think you talked about pricing reaching or exceeding the mid-$30,000 level. Thank you.
I think that is exactly right. I think we see a market where there continues to be discipline by the major players. A lot of confidence in the market, but no one is getting carried away. More of the activity up and down has been the privates returning to the market. But the good news is the super-spec percentage is going up of utilization. Once it hits a certain number, as you all know, that is when pricing starts to accelerate. So we see, as we go into the second half of the year, things are going to accelerate. And, as you observed, that target number of the mid-$30 thousands—we see that as reaching that toward the end of the year.
That is helpful. And then shifting to the international side: within Saudi, reactivations are progressing, it seems like there is strong momentum for incremental rigs as well. Can you just talk to how discussions are going for the fifth tranche of new rigs and how that is progressing?
Sure. Aramco is very committed to the program, and it has all been positive. As you can see from what we have done, notwithstanding all the turmoil over there, we have continued to execute on track. We expect that the next tranche will be discussed really shortly, probably within the next quarter, and we will have complete visibility on it. We are confident that the program is going to continue. By the way, looking at Saudi in general, I think it is all positive signs. Obviously, the 196 rigs I mentioned—one of the things that you all have been interested in is the number of suspended rigs. Of the 40 rigs that remain suspended from the downturn, I think during the next short period of time you may see another 10 come back in the form of LSTK work, which also would help Nabors not just on the rig side, but also on the service side because we are a big player there. Our NDS operation on casing running services is the number one player in Saudi Arabia. So we see that as additional upside there as well.
That is helpful. Thank you.
The next question will come from Derek Podhaizer with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Wanted to add to Dan's first question around just the outlook on the rig count, maybe to hone in a little bit more on 2027. Just assuming the strip stays around $70—everything sounds super positive. I think your survey mentioned another 11 rigs through year end. But you also commented on potential tightness around the supply with super-spec rigs. Can you help walk through that as far as how many rigs from a market perspective could potentially be added in 2027, and then what that means for Nabors' rig count?
2027 is still a ways off, so I do not want to get over my skis. But in terms of super-specs, the pitch here is that most operators—especially the large ones that are focused on longer laterals—are all demanding higher-spec rigs. Existing rigs are going to be upgraded along those lines. I could see maybe half a dozen rigs being upgraded over the next 12 months by operators asking for that kind of work. In terms of the market's ability to do that, I think we are well positioned because, with Canrig, we make most of the equipment that we need. So we are well poised to support upgrades. But in terms of a guess of next year's rig count, I'm not ready to talk about that.
I think the market is disciplined right now, and everything is falling into place. Right now, we are focused on continuing the utilization of the current rigs and seeing some tightening of pricing as things move forward—typically as operators demand more upgrades of existing equipment.
Okay. That is really helpful, Tony. I actually wanted to ask a question around your geothermal. You guys have been a longtime investor in the geothermal startup space. I know Quaise is one of your first investments there. Great to hear that you are drilling with them in Oregon. Maybe discuss some of the upside with Quaise as they look to build out gigawatt-scale enhanced geothermal. I believe they have a different design—do they vaporize rock versus drill rock? Maybe talk about that, and then the actual rig: do you have to make technology upgrades to it, and what about the pricing of a geothermal rig versus an oil and gas rig? More around the opportunity and design of what you are doing with Quaise.
As you know, Nabors five years ago—before geothermal was topical—identified it as the most underappreciated renewable because it is baseload and renewable. Quaise was one of the companies that really attracted us because of their differentiated technology. We do not like to be a 'me too' player. We were intrigued by their millimeter-wave technology, which came out of MIT and has defense-department-grade capabilities as well. The concept is that with this millimeter-wave technology you can destroy rock rather than drill it, reaching supercritical temperatures around 500 degrees Celsius. At those depths, typical conventional rigs cannot get there without significant changes. Quaise's objective is to make geothermal ubiquitous—if you can reach super-hot rock, geothermal becomes viable in many more locations. For this first project, Quaise is still developing the millimeter-wave technology, but they have shifted to also act as a developer using more conventional approaches to lay the foundation for millimeter-wave testing.
The millimeter-wave equipment needs integration into the rig—a special gyrotron—and that requires changes to the top drive and other rig systems. Nabors is uniquely positioned to provide that integration. Quaise has publicly announced a contract with Google; the first install is planned for 250 megawatts, with the first well targeting a 50-megawatt install. This is the beginning of a campaign. Compared to other companies in the space, Quaise offers a path to a much more ubiquitous geothermal market. That's why we are excited about it. We believe in the management and the company and see it as a compelling long-term opportunity.
Sounds super exciting. Appreciate all the comments, Tony. I will turn it back.
The next question will come from Keith MacKey with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hey. Thanks, good morning. I know it is early for 2027, but just thinking about the capital plan for 2026 and how that might differ from 2027. Can you maybe start to pull apart some of the pieces of what might be more or less? I'm thinking SANAD should be lower next year just given the fifth tranche has not been awarded yet. Can you help us think about next year versus this year?
You are correct that it is early. If we start with a baseline of at least a second-half run rate higher than $1 billion in EBITDA, we need to think about CapEx that will not be lower than 2026. Specifically, SANAD milestones probably will be in the range of $330 million to $350 million, considering additional rigs building and deployment. You will probably see five rigs deployed in 2027 and starting construction on another five. In general, CapEx will likely be in line with 2026 if not slightly higher. Beyond sustaining capital for our rigs and the NDS portfolio, there are opportunities in the pipeline that may require growth CapEx into 2027. So I would not expect CapEx to be lower than 2026.
Good news. To make sure you caught it: the second-half run rate based on what we have told you today is that we see a $1 billion run-rate in the second half of this year, at least. That is the good news.
And the encouraging part of this is that the second-half outlook, which already is at least 17% higher than the first half for 2026, is all based on contracted activity and planned rig deployments. So the downside risk to that second half is extremely small.
Appreciate that. Just maybe on your U.S. contract book: since you are at 45% with at least six months, and you are likely to get to 50% in Q3, talk about your approach to that. Certainly you have a higher percentage of contracted rigs this cycle versus the last cycle. What do you think is the right number for Nabors, and how do you balance the decision to have a higher portion of your rigs contracted versus a lower portion?
There is no single answer; it depends on timing and the market. When you do long-term contracts, it is always a function of where the market is at the current time and what the delta is. I would not say there is an absolute percentage number, but a 60% contracted number could make sense. More important than a specific percentage is who you enter long-term contracts with and the content of those contracts. We want long-term rates with operators who are long-term players, who invest in technology, and who can use a more bundled approach to our services. That drives more upside and gives us a road map for additional opportunities. Many of our technology initiatives come from these types of relationships. For example, our rig automation initiatives are with operators that have longer-term engagements and are willing to deploy and adopt our technologies, which creates additional value over time.
Got it. And if I could just follow up quickly: how does performance-based metrics work into your contracting strategy? Is that a key part of technology integration as well?
Absolutely. The NDS portion is value-priced because it is performance-based software and services. Many of our contracts include key performance metrics with some sharing of upside. That is common now. The NDS delivery mechanism is remarkable: NDS' conversion rate in this quarter was about 90% free cash flow conversion of its EBITDA, which is a very strong number. Those services are part and parcel of a value-driven proposition for customers and are capital efficient as well.
This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. William Cornelius Conroy for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
I am going to let Tony Petrello make a few closing remarks, and then I will close the call out. Tony?
I would just like to say that I think Nabors has the right portfolio of assets in the right markets with the right capabilities to take advantage of this unique opportunity, executing from a position of strength. The international environment is robust and our business is well positioned. The Lower 48 is capturing better market conditions. Technology is becoming a larger driver of earnings differentiation. We are fundamentally improving the quality of our business, positioning ourselves for great growth in the future. We see a lot of significant opportunity ahead. Thanks for your time and consideration today.
Chuck, with that, we will end the call here. If there are any follow-up questions, please contact us. Thanks again.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.