All GRABW transcripts

Grab Holdings Ltd (GRABW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

28 segments

Alexander Charles HungateCEO

Like Trip.com and AliPay to enhance brand visibility even before users land in the region. As a result of these initiatives, travelers' MTUs have grown over 10x over the last 3 years, with airport rides driving over 10% of our Mobility GMV today. GrabMart is growing 1.7x faster than GrabFood, thanks to three important improvements to the customer proposition. First, deepening integration with major supermarkets to ensure that handling of fresh produce deliveries is reliable and consistent. Next, curating our merchant selection to shift user behavior from daily essentials to weekly stock-ups. Lastly, we have launched GrabMore, where users can add groceries to their food order at no additional cost. As a result, we've seen a 30% year-on-year increase in GrabMart users in 2025, while usage frequency continues to improve. There is still plenty of upside with GrabMart, which only accounts for 10% of our Deliveries GMV today.

The success of our merchants has always been at the heart of our mission. The powerful integrated suite of offerings that we built for them intends to elevate both them and the Grab platform to the next level. First, Grab offers merchants enterprise-level digital tools that help them maximize their return on advertising spend. We provide integrated point-of-sale and payment systems to widen payments acceptance for them. Then we embed lending to improve cash flows and finally transform their transaction data into actionable insights to help them scale their businesses. With these capabilities, Grab will be able to deliver the one outcome that matters most to our merchant partners, which is, of course, sustained earnings growth. In 2025, total active Deliveries merchants increased 9% year-on-year while their earnings have seen a corresponding increase of 11%. Our Financial Services strategy is centered on embedded distribution that lowers customer acquisition costs with personalized offerings.

For the majority of our users, drivers, and merchants, GrabPay is their initial entry point into a range of Financial Services. As they build a transactional history with us, we can also offer lending, insurance, and even digital banking services in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In just 3 years, we have grown to 7.4 million deposit customers across our three banks. We have not had to invest heavily in acquiring new users or offering high deposit rates as we are converting the users who are already on our platform. This also drives our lending business because we see high-frequency daily transaction data on our platform. We can predict risk more accurately, allowing us to scale our loan portfolio rapidly while risk-adjusted returns continue to track above our cost of capital and credit costs remain well within our risk appetite. In 2025, our gross loan portfolio surpassed $1 billion for the first time, ending the year at $1.3 billion.

Our goal is to exit 2026 with a gross loan book of over $2 billion. I also want to touch on this morning's announcement regarding our acquisition of Stash, a U.S.-based digital investing platform. While we remain firmly committed to Southeast Asia and the growth of our regional lending business, this acquisition achieves two specific objectives. First, it accelerates our wealth management roadmap with the addition of new capabilities and talent. Second, it has an attractive financial profile with the potential to grow into a high-margin subscription revenue stream, contributing over $60 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028. Lastly, I want to discuss how we harness technology, including AI, for efficiency gains. We leverage AI to improve conversion at every stage of the funnel. For example, we automate menu translations to enhance the conversion of high-value segments such as travelers. Over 97% of our merchant listings regionally are now available in English and Chinese.

Our credit scoring models are also increasingly robust as we are able to whitelist a greater proportion of ecosystem partners. We have improved real-time personalization by collating a database of over 1,000 attributes and segmenting our users and ecosystem partners into 200,000 distinct segments. Finally, we have improved our search and basket conversion with AI semantic search and real-time personalization. Our tech investments are helping us to gain operating leverage. We continue to lower our cloud costs per transaction by proactively retiring idle resources and transitioning to more cost-efficient solutions. At the same time, payment processing costs as a proportion of total payment volumes are declining as we increase volumes through our wallets. Finally, we are maximizing headcount efficiency by deploying in-house AI models. You may be asking yourselves, how are we able to double the number of cities in which we offer services while reducing operations headcount?

The answer is that we have been deploying auto-adaptive technology to optimize our core marketplace in each city, enabling us to scale in a lean and agile fashion. In fact, today, more than 90% of our Mobility rides are dispatched using AI. Looking ahead to the future, we are investing in the next structural shift in on-demand services: autonomous vehicles and robotics. In partnership with WeRide, we launched our first AV shuttle service for the public in Singapore. Our position as Southeast Asia's leading on-demand marketplace makes us the preferred commercialization partner for global autonomous technology leaders. We are committed to serving two critical functions: first, acting as a key thought partner for regulators to help define safety standards and operational frameworks for driverless transport. Next, we support our driver partners through the transition to our hybrid fleet by uplifting them to take on specialized roles in safety and fleet management within the autonomous ecosystem.

In closing, I have updated you on the strong progress we are making as we execute toward our strategy and shared with you our priorities for the future. We will work closer than ever with our merchant and driver partners, government agencies, corporate partners, and Grabbers to execute this strategy. Thank you for your continued support. I will now turn the call over to Peter, who will discuss how these developments support our financial roadmap over the next three years.

Peter OeyCFO

Thanks, Alex. Anthony and Alex just laid a powerful strategic roadmap focused on affordability, ecosystem-led lifetime values, and Gen AI efficiency. I will now show you how that strategy is translating into our financial roadmap, driving durable, profitable growth at scale. What makes it particularly energized is how our execution over the past few years is already setting the foundations to drive the financial outlook that we are setting today. Let me first deep dive into our fourth-quarter and 2025 results, which set us up for the next chapter of our financial roadmap. We delivered a strong finish for the year in the fourth quarter, characterized by product-led demand-driven growth. Our On-Demand GMV increased 21% year-over-year, or 20% on a constant currency basis, with transactions outpacing GMV growth by 24% year-over-year. The strong volume growth is underpinned by our affordability and ecosystem expansion strategies that drive both user acquisition and higher transaction frequency.

Our group revenue grew 19%, or 17% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, to $906 million. This is fueled by this GMV momentum, also driven by increasing contributions from our Financial Services. Financial Services also achieved our goals with our gross loan portfolio hitting $1.3 billion and our net loan portfolio reaching $1.2 billion, well above our guidance of $1 billion while maintaining healthy risk-adjusted returns. Adjusted EBITDA reached $148 million for the fourth quarter, marking our 16th consecutive quarter of EBITDA expansion. On a full-year basis, adjusted EBITDA grew by 60% year-on-year to $500 million. This profitability is powered by our robust top-of-the-funnel growth and our relentless focus on driving operating leverage as we scale. Finally, we generated $76 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter and $290 million for the full year, underscoring the efficiency of our platform.

The scalability of our ecosystem is delivering a clear trend of accelerating top-line growth coupled with expanding profitability. When we take a step back to review 2025, we hit several key milestones. Let me show you what they are. First, we have driven a strong acceleration in growth with On-Demand GMV growing 21% year-over-year. We were able to do this as a result of years of effort to widen the top of the funnel and execute the product-led strategies Alex just described. Our confidence in this momentum remains high because we are seeing product-led and ecosystem-focused initiatives driving higher transaction frequency and attracting a broader user base than ever before. As we continue to scale the ecosystem, it translates into operating leverage as we benefit from greater network scale efficiencies. From our first quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability achieved in the third quarter of 2023, we subsequently recorded positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2024.

I’m also proud to announce that in 2025, we achieved our first full year of net profit. Looking ahead, there are four core principles of our financial roadmap that will guide our execution in the medium term and serve as a framework for how we create long-term shareholder value. Firstly, we remain focused on growing in a sustainable and durable manner. We're not chasing growth at any cost. Instead, we are driving relentless improvements to the affordability and reliability of our core offerings to capture a larger share of our addressable market and employ a product-led and ecosystem-focused approach to cross-sell high-margin services like Financial Services. Secondly, we will continue to drive improvements to operating leverage. Our priority is now to build on this foundation and compound the earnings growth of our ecosystem as we continue to benefit from the network efficiencies we've built over the last decade.

Third, we are laser-focused on free cash flow conversion. We expect our adjusted free cash flow conversion rates to improve as our profitability grows and we achieve operating leverage. Finally, we will maintain a strong disciplined balance sheet. Our capital allocation framework prioritizes organic growth with high returns while remaining disciplined on M&A and returning excess capital to shareholders. Now let's look at how this all comes together in our guidance for 2026. First, on the top line, we expect group revenues to grow between 20% to 22% year-over-year, reaching $4.04 billion to $4.1 billion, accelerating from the 20% growth in 2025. This is not just a byproduct of a larger base; it’s a direct result of our sustained growth in our On-Demand GMV and Financial Services continuing to be our fastest-growing segment as we scale our loan portfolio. On adjusted EBITDA, we expect to grow by 40% to 44% year-on-year, reaching $700 million to $720 million in 2026.

This step-up in profitability reflects the network scale efficiencies and cost leverage we've been building into the platform. This is supported by the continued growth in our On-Demand EBITDA but also Financial Services segment moving toward EBITDA breakeven in the second half of the year. We will continue to lean into technology and Gen AI to drive corporate efficiency and operating leverage in the business. Now I would also like to outline how we are thinking about the next three years and the goals we are focused on achieving. For the next three years, we expect robust momentum in revenue, growing at a 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA tripling from 2025 to reach $1.5 billion in 2028, and for adjusted free cash flow conversion to expand to 80%. Looking ahead through 2028, our revenue outlook is defined by a demand-led strategy across several high-velocity levers. For our On-Demand segments, we are very focused on new user growth by expanding our footprint into non-capital cities while broadening our product suite to capture untapped market segments.

This expanding base gives us larger foundations to drive retention and frequency while expecting a gradual increase in basket sizes. Regarding our Financial Services engine, we expect it to become an increasingly larger contributor to our total revenue base. By leveraging our proprietary ecosystem data, we can scale lending dispersal with high confidence in our credit costs, creating a high-margin revenue stream. Finally, in MSME and merchant solutions, we see significant upside from merchant-focused initiatives specifically in advertising and omni-commerce solutions like dining. These services enhance our value proposition to merchants. Collectively, these strategic pillars provide a clear trajectory towards our 2028 revenue targets. Moving on from the revenue outlook to our EBITDA trajectory, our focus is on driving the operating leverage required to reach our target of $1.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2028.

To put it in context, this represents 3x growth from our 2025 performance and more than doubling the EBITDA we've guided for 2026, anchored by three key pillars. First, On-Demand: Our primary driver for absolute EBITDA growth is expanding our top of the funnel. As we continue to expand this ecosystem, we are benefiting from compounding network scale efficiencies, particularly within fulfillment and fixed cost leverage, enabling us to track towards our long-term steady-state margins of over 9% for Mobility and 4% for Deliveries. Secondly, for our Financial Services, we are firmly on track to achieve EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2026, and from that point onward, we will progressively expand margins. This transition will be fueled by scaling our loan book and continuous maturation of our credit models, allowing us to grow interest income while tightly managing credit costs. Finally, regarding corporate costs: while these will naturally increase as we scale, our focus remains on driving operating leverage, ensuring these costs grow at a significantly slower pace than group revenue.

By executing across these three fronts, we aim to become more efficient as our business scales. As we scale both our top and bottom lines, we are entering a phase of accelerated free cash flow growth. The key takeaway here is our conversion efficiency. We expect our adjusted free cash flow conversion to move from 58% in 2025 to a target of 80% by 2028. This is driven by capital expenditures and taxes growing at a much slower rate than EBITDA. While remaining disciplined in deploying capital into critical assets like our fleet, including autonomous vehicles, we aim to decouple our revenue growth from our capital intensity. This ensures that even as we invest for the long term, we see a higher portion of our earnings converting directly into cash. By 2028, we expect this efficiency to generate over $1.2 billion in full-year adjusted free cash flow. This level of cash generation allows us to self-fund our continued innovation while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Finally, I want to discuss our capital allocation principles. As we move into this next chapter, our framework continues to be anchored on four priorities. First, we remain disciplined in investing for organic and profitable growth. We ensure our core segments have the resources needed to capture the deep market opportunities before us. We are also prudent in deploying capital where it generates the highest returns. Second, we are staying highly selective on inorganic opportunities. We will maintain a high bar, pursuing acquisitions only if they strategically accelerate our roadmap, bring critical technology or talent, and meet our strict return thresholds. Third, we will aim to maintain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity. Our robust cash position ensures we can navigate macro volatility with ease while continuing to innovate. Finally, where we have excess capital, we will continue to return it to our shareholders.

We're pleased to announce a new $500 million share repurchase program this quarter. This follows the completion of our previous $500 million share program last year, bringing our total commitment to $1 billion in share repurchases. To wrap things up, 2025 has been a milestone year for us. If our first decade was about proving that the Superapp model could work, then this past year was a critical proof point that we can scale this engine with durable growth and profitability. While we are proud of our progress, we recognize we are still in the early chapters of our long-term journey. The company you see today is fundamentally different from the one that went public four years ago. We have reached a stage where growth and profitability are no longer a trade-off. We are driving significant top-line expansion while maintaining strict discipline in our capital allocation. What is most meaningful to me is that our financial progress is now the engine for our wider mission.

By generating robust cash flow, we are in a strong position to deliver our triple bottom line. We deliver sustainable value for our shareholders by building a profitable, compounding business, enabling us to create positive societal impacts by expanding earnings opportunities for our partners while also protecting the environment. We are more energized than ever to continue this work and grow the business for our users, our partners, and shareholders. Thank you for watching and listening to Anthony, Alex, and me. I will now turn it over to Ken Lek as we begin the Q&A session.

OperatorOperator

Sure. We now open the call to questions. As a reminder, to the audience, please submit your questions via investor.relations@grab.com. With that, our first question comes from the line of Pang Vitt from Goldman Sachs and Horng Han from CLSA. The question is about our EBITDA 2028 guidance. Just a question for management. You provided a strong outlook of tripling EBITDA between 2025 and 2028. Could you outline the key assumptions by segment? What are the biggest drivers for this step up?

Peter OeyCFO

Let me take this one here, Horng Han and Pang. There are really two key themes. If you step back, in the last 40 minutes, we've outlined what they are. The first is sustainable growth. You're seeing the revenue growth momentum translate directly into the guide, with revenue projected to grow by 20% to 22% and beyond until 2028, where you see that 20% revenue CAGR growth from 2025 to 2028. The second theme is operating leverage in the business and our cost structure improvements. In terms of profitability, that $1.5 billion of EBITDA target we are aiming for has four key pillars. First is On-Demand revenue. The On-Demand engine is working, and we're seeing continued momentum in driving user growth at the top of the funnel. This is translating into absolute margin expansion and dollar growth in the business. We are reducing costs, which requires lowering our cost to serve while also enhancing affordability.

We will continue to double down on driving top-line growth while also achieving margin improvement in both the Deliveries and Mobility segments. The second pillar is Financial Services. We are seeing the loan book scale and we recently hit $1 billion. As the business turns breakeven in the second half of 2026, we expect profitability to grow significantly from there. We're optimistic about the trajectory of Financial Services as we work to reduce our credit costs. The third and fourth pillars involve operating leverage and corporate cost improvements, where we are seeing a decrease in corporate costs relative to revenue—from approximately 17% in 2023 to about 11% in 2025, resulting in a 600 basis points margin improvement. As we continue driving costs down, improving cloud costs, managing costs of funds, and increasing AI productivity, we anticipate overall margin improvements across the business. That's how you can think about it: two pillars: sustainability and operating leverage driving ongoing growth.

OperatorOperator

Our second question, which is related, comes from Venugopal from Bernstein. This is a question for Peter as well. What prompted us to provide a 2025 – 2028 guidance, as such long-term guidance is typically not common? How predictable is the business model? Is this all going to be driven by organic growth?

Peter OeyCFO

Yes, Venu, it's all organic growth. That's what we've presented here today. If you look at the strategy, nothing has changed regarding how we will maintain momentum. The last time we provided three-year guidance was back in September 2022. The business has continued to evolve and scale. We are at an inflection point, with all the ingredients from the last couple of years starting to materialize, and 2025 will act as a demonstration of that. We want to share our long-term financial roadmap with our investors, showing where we intend to head over the next three years. The growth we're experiencing remains strong. We have surpassed 50 million MTUs, and there are still numerous MTUs we can reach across Southeast Asia. Over the past four years, we expanded into over 400 cities, many of which are non-capital cities. We are committed to retaining profitability and expanding free cash flow. We want to target $1.5 billion EBITDA by 2028, and our progress so far reflects our confidence in this trajectory.

OperatorOperator

All right. We'll move on to a few questions on Indonesia. The next question comes from Navin Killa from UBS and Pang Vitt from Goldman Sachs. A question for Alex. Is there any update on Indonesia's proposal to lower ride-hailing commissions? If implemented, how would this impact take rates and segment margins? What levers do you have to offset that potential pressure?

Alexander Charles HungateCEO

Thanks for this question, Navin and Pang. This is a great opportunity to clarify things because there's been a lot of speculation in the media about what could happen in Indonesia. We can confirm that the government has not proposed any changes in commission caps. We're in close consultation with them. We're aligned and committed to their ultimate goal, which is improving the welfare of drivers in Indonesia. As you may have noted, we have unveiled social security initiatives for our hardworking drivers, plus the Hari Raya bonus coming up as well. We are using the technology we've developed, particularly AI and a product called Ride Guide, to help increase driver productivity, enabling them to receive more orders and increase earnings for every hour they choose to work. Both ourselves and the government have a mutual interest in developing a sustainable platform for our customers, affordability for our customers, and enhancing livelihoods for our driver partners and micro-SMEs across Indonesia. As for the margins, which I believe is also a question coming up.

OperatorOperator

So Divya asked a follow-up question in Indonesia. Also for Alex, could you provide updates on Grab's GMV growth and market share trends in Indonesia in the fourth quarter? Do you expect margins for Indonesia to be impacted by higher driver welfare costs in 2026?

Alexander Charles HungateCEO

Yes, Divya, thanks. Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, we have driven affordability as a key part of our strategy and the product-led strategy in Indonesia. We've improved our category leadership across all verticals in Indonesia, growing in line with the overall group and faster than the market here. We've demonstrated sustainable double-digit GMV growth for our On-Demand segment and expanded profitability year-on-year. In response to your question, we do not expect margins to be impacted by the social programs mentioned earlier because we are achieving greater operating leverage as we scale up in the country. The most significant aspect of our fourth-quarter results in Indonesia was the increased velocity in Financial Services for us in the country, highlighted by the successful IPO of Superbank in December, which had a market cap of $1.8 billion and oversubscribed 300x with over 1 million shareholders. Currently, we believe we have more shareholders in Superbank than any other stock on the IDX, indicating the potential market for Financial Services, and we anticipate a velocity increase in 2026.

OperatorOperator

We now have a two-pronged question from Piyush Choudhary from HSBC. We'll take the first question first. Before we pause for the second. The first question is for Anthony on our AV initiatives. Grab has partnerships with various cutting-edge AV companies. Can you provide an update on the progress of your various pilots? Apart from Singapore, do you see commercial rollouts in other ASEAN countries in the next few years?

Ping Yeow TanCFO

Great question, Piyush. Our long-term strategy centers around building supply resilience. We view AVs not as a replacement for our driver partners but as critical buffers to ensure 100% reliability. This is especially key during peak hours or in underserved areas. You may have seen us make small minority investments that position us well within Southeast Asia, strategically partnering with global leaders in the U.S. and China ecosystems, such as WeRide, May Mobility, and hardware leaders. This agnostic approach allows us to leverage the best technology worldwide, adapting it to the specific nuances of Southeast Asian infrastructure. Over the next three years, we see Singapore as our blueprint. Ai.R is our first public AV shuttle service in Singapore's Punggol district. It has covered over 25,000 kilometers with zero safety-critical incidents or near misses—the highest mileage recorded and most data collected by any AV operator in Southeast Asia.

Our in-house fleet operations tooling will enable real-time alerting for AV issues, allowing our operations center to respond quickly to potential incidents. Most importantly, we reiterate our commitment to retrain our driver partners, transitioning them into new and emerging roles as we move toward a hybrid human and autonomous fleet. We are already retraining our strong Grab driver partners to be qualified safety operators during this pilot, forming part of our AV fleet operations ground team, which also comprises customer support and depot operations. We are maintaining our core operations while decreasing long-term costs per kilometer. We will continue to cooperate closely with regulators, like Singapore's Ministry of Transport, to collectively define the safety standards and operational frameworks that facilitate safe coexistence between driverless and traditional transportation. Ultimately, we view this transition as a way to future-proof our platform and network, ensuring we remain the most efficient marketplace as we lead Southeast Asia into its next chapter of mobility.

OperatorOperator

Thank you, Anthony. The second part of Piyush's question, which is two-pronged, is for Alex. How is the performance of the various new product initiatives you launched in 2025? What are the key learnings from these rollouts? As for 2026, what new products could we potentially anticipate? The first part of the second question is about MTUs growing to over 50 million users as of the fourth quarter of 2025. Could you share your outlook for MTUs as a percentage of ATU penetration over the coming years?

Alexander Charles HungateCEO

Thanks, Piyush. At the start of 2025, we emphasized focusing on user growth and frequency, which was a key driver of our growth acceleration. Two years ago, we discussed Grab being utilized by 1 in 20 individuals in Southeast Asia; currently, we're at 1 in 15. While we're growing rapidly and penetrating quickly, we're still just scratching the surface, with considerable upside left in this dynamic region for Grab to deepen its penetration. Our GMV growth accelerated by 21% year-on-year, but transaction growth, which is crucial, grew even faster at 24% year-on-year this last fourth quarter. The ratio of MTUs to annual transacting users is at 37%, as Anthony stated at the beginning of today’s presentation, an increase from last year. The overall base of ATUs has grown even further to 129 million users now. Our product strategy is working, reflected in our new product initiatives in Deliveries, now contributing to about half of our GMV.

A full-year basis reflects that it's nearly half, with 46% year-on-year GMV growth attributed to new products, marking a significant contribution. In summary, our pricing strategy is effective, with affordability driving more frequent transactions. The Saver program gives us 1.5 times more frequency than the average. Our high-value customers in Southeast Asia, who are less price-sensitive, are interested in high-end services, such as limo rides to airports, allowing us to effectively manage the margin mix. We aim for user engagement through viral products on our platform. For example, Group Orders have helped us double retention and frequency compared to averages. The Family Account is another successful product. GrabMore, the cross-sell from food into GrabMart, is also performing phenomenally, fostering long-term value. Our focus for the future extends beyond MTUs' penetration into ATUs; Grab's daily usage is becoming paramount. We aspire for users to use Grab daily, and we're making solid progress towards that goal.

OperatorOperator

Next question comes from Alicia Yap from Citi. This is a three-part inquiry regarding our three-year revenue guidance. The first part requests a breakdown by segment of how this will contribute to your revenue growth. The second part asks for insights on the Deliveries EBITDA margin by 2028. The third part inquires about achieving Financial Services breakeven by the second half of 2026. This is all directed at you, Peter.

Peter OeyCFO

Sure, Alicia. In the next three years, we expect Financial Services to grow significantly faster than our On-Demand segment. The product is scaling rapidly, with our banks building their loan books aggressively. We've surpassed the $1 billion loan book, and we expect to double that by the end of 2026, continuing to increase. Financial Services will contribute to our revenue growth at an ever-quickening pace as they continue to deepen market penetration. Although our On-Demand business will grow too, Financial Services will lead the charge significantly. In terms of margin expansion, we anticipate continued growth throughout both segments, with Financial Services margins expanding even more rapidly. Additionally, we continue to enhance our advertising business, which is critical for our ongoing revenue growth. I believe there was one more question from Alicia that I haven't answered.

OperatorOperator

Fintech breakeven?

Peter OeyCFO

Alicia, I can assure you that Financial Services will achieve breakeven in the second half of 2026.

OperatorOperator

We're receiving several inquiries related to AI from various analysts, including Alicia from Citi and Navin from UBS. Anthony, a question for you; with the rapid evolution of AI models and the increasing use of AI chatbots, what is management's view on the positioning of Grab's Superapp strategy? How does Grab anticipate potential shifts in user behavior and the use of AI chatbots as discovery funnels and ordering gateways, which could disrupt its services?

Ping Yeow TanCFO

Great questions, Navin and Alicia. We view the evolution of AI as not a threat to the Superapp model, but rather a high-velocity engine that will enhance our platform. In addressing your concerns about disruption, we see three strategic pillars that will strengthen our position rather than threaten it. Let's discuss LLMs: they excel in product discovery and digital commerce. We, as Grab, have now embedded ourselves in the everyday lives of Southeast Asians. This is the advantage of our embedding; the physical infrastructure we’ve built across Southeast Asia allows mobility and food delivery services to become our strong moat and establish Grab as the indispensable fulfillment partner. LLMs can provide great channels, but we possess those essential physical assets that can't be disintermediated. Second, our partnerships with OpenAI and other AI tools are designed not only for operational efficiency but ensure that as a user asks a third-party AI, like how to get home or what to eat, Grab remains the integrated fulfillment engine behind that query.

The third point for users is increasingly focused on deep personalization and efficiency; we're deploying semantic search and generative AI to turn our Superapp into a personalized concierge of service. Our approach is proactive—we leverage our data and generative AI to predict user intent. With over 1,000 proprietary AI models, we’re powering merchants, drivers, and enhancing their experiences on our platform. The significant results include improved unit economics—while our headcount has remained flat, our revenue has doubled. We’re building an AI-led operating system for Southeast Asia. We look forward to showcasing the next generation of these tools at our upcoming GrabX Product Day.

OperatorOperator

The next question pertains to our recent acquisition of Stash. Two inquiries come from Ranjan Sharma from JPMorgan and Venu Gopal from Bernstein. Could you share some of the financial metrics of this business, including its burn and near-term earnings? What valuation did we settle on for these assets? What does this acquisition signal? Is it meant to be rolled out in Asia or signifies a formal entry into the U.S. market? Does our 2028 guidance include contributions from Stash?

Peter OeyCFO

Our long-term strategy remains deeply rooted in Southeast Asia. We're dedicated to expanding our business there; we have much more to accomplish for our core markets. We see Stash as a unique asset. The last acquisition we made, purchasing supermarkets, was also a unique asset. Stash has strong IP, a talented team, and a platform we don’t currently possess. In Financial Services, we have robust payments and lending departments, with a significant deposit base, but we lack an investing platform. That's crucial for serving our user base in Southeast Asia, and even in other markets where Stash operates today. Notably, it is a positive EBITDA business, generating free cash flow, with expectations of producing $60 million in EBITDA by 2028. It’s an accretive business, allowing us to not only extend loans to our users but also educate them on saving—fulfilling our mission for underserved user segments. We’re excited to welcome the Stash family, expecting closure on the transaction by Q3 or Q4. We’ll be entering with a strong base, as they already have over 1 million customers showcasing the proof of concept.

OperatorOperator

We have several inquiries related to our grocery strategy from various analysts, including Jiong from Barclays, Divya from MS, Wei from Mizuho, and Sachin from Bank of America. Alex, could you provide us with an update on our grocery strategy and recent growth trends? What changes are you observing in the competitive landscape across Southeast Asia? How do you plan to invest capital in this vertical?

Alexander Charles HungateCEO

Thanks for the question. It’s great to kick off the market opportunity. In ASEAN, the modern retail penetration is less than 40% of the overall grocery market, with online grocery penetration even lower at less than 3% across most of our markets. Compared to the U.S., China, and the U.K., where figures are as high as 15%, 20%, and even 30%, it presents an excellent opportunity for growth. Currently, GrabMart comprises only 10% of our Deliveries GMV, but it is growing significantly faster at a rate of 1.7x compared to our food delivery segment year-on-year. We are gaining traction by adding selections that are adjacent to food consumption habits. Offering beverages and groceries makes sense when users are ordering food. We're analyzing customer behavior and search patterns on the food side to adjust our SKU selection and effectively cross-sell from food deliveries to GrabMart. As we do this, we see substantial increases in engagement, retention, and long-term value.

Therefore, we are committed to investing in this space with discipline, ensuring we capture sustainable returns by leveraging our on-demand capabilities while growing our supply chain by deeply integrating technology with our partners. This improves financial performance. Additionally, we plan to enhance monetization through Financial Services like pay-later capabilities and installment loans, providing multiple avenues for sustainable growth.

OperatorOperator

With that, we now have time for one last question. The final inquiry comes from Divya from Morgan Stanley regarding our capital allocation strategy. Peter, this question is directed at you. There's significant cash on our balance sheet, and this will likely increase further with our improving free cash flow outlook. While we appreciate the share repurchase program, it constitutes only a small percentage of your total capital. Where do you plan to allocate capital if there are no opportunities for inorganic growth in the region? Are there new geographies to consider?

Peter OeyCFO

While discussing capital allocation, my prior comments hold true. When considering inorganic opportunities, we will continue to exercise discretion with a high bar for any opportunity we evaluate. For each dollar we deploy, we're looking for value and synergy. You’ve seen examples in our investments in Stash and our autonomous vehicle product roadmap, robotics, and other areas. This lens will remain unchanged. Our primary focus will continue to be on organic growth within existing businesses. We’re persistent in seeking scalable growth across our banks and we will thoroughly assess organic growth opportunities as they arise, including the grocery expansion Alex just outlined. The share repurchase program signifies our commitment to returning capital to shareholders; we aim for a balance between returning capital and maintaining strong liquidity to ensure we can make the right investments. Therefore, we will continue to evaluate opportunities and ensure we maintain a robust capital allocation framework.

OperatorOperator

All right. That brings us to the conclusion of our Q&A session. I will now turn the time over to Peter for his closing remarks.

Peter OeyCFO

Great. I know it’s been longer than our traditional calls and this format is somewhat different. However, I thought it's crucial for Anthony, Alex, and I to present more details on how we envision the business over the next three years. We are at an inflection point as a business overall. The company you see today is significantly different from what it was 14 years ago, 10 years ago, and at the time of its IPO. This is important because we will continue to execute and deliver. If we look at the results we just posted, we exited 2025 with much stronger top-line growth, improved profitability, and our first year of net profit. Our three-year guidance reflects our confidence. We aim to drive sustainable and profitable growth. I want to express my gratitude to all our partners, drivers, and merchants—your contributions have been instrumental. Having visited several cities in the past three weeks, I want to recognize the hard work and dedication of our drivers and merchants in the Grab ecosystem.

Thank you to our customers—over 50 million monthly transacting users. Your support is vital, and we hope we are fulfilling your product and service expectations. I also thank our Grabbers for their efforts in 2025 and our shareholders for their continued trust. The IR team and I will be on the road in the upcoming weeks. Feel free to reach out, whether in the U.S. or different parts of Asia; we'd love to meet and discuss our journey into 2026 and the three-year guidance that accompanies it. Thank you for your attention and see you next quarter.

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