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Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

43 segments

Prepared remarks

OperatorOperator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Mission Produce’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jeff Sonnek, Investor Relations at ICR. Thank you. You may begin.

Jeff SonnekInvestor Relations

Thank you and good afternoon. Today's presentation will be hosted by Steve Barnard, Chief Executive Officer, and Bryan Giles, Chief Financial Officer. The company's President and Chief Operating Officer, John Pawlowski, is also on today's call for participation during the Q&A session. The comments during today's call and the accompanying presentation contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical facts are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events. Such forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Some of these risks and uncertainties are identified and discussed in the company's filings with the SEC. We'll also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures today. Please refer to the tables included in the earnings release, which can be found on our Investor Relations website for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. And with that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve Barnard, CEO. Steve?

Stephen BarnardCEO

Thank you for joining us today. Our strong execution in the fourth quarter rounded out an exceptional fiscal 2024 where we delivered $1.2 billion in revenue and generated $107.8 million in adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating the strength of our business model and industry-leading position. Throughout the year, we effectively leveraged Mission's differentiated global sourcing network to capitalize on favorable market conditions, which culminated in another quarter of solid financial performance. The strength of our integrated business was particularly evident this quarter through the collective efforts of our sales, sourcing, and operations teams. When others might have seen challenges given the smaller production out of Peru this year, which resulted in supply constraints for the industry, we capitalized on opportunities to leverage our unique capabilities and global sourcing network. Strong consumer demand and retail support of the category, coupled with the supply constraint environment, helped support elevated pricing dynamics that extended into the fourth quarter.

Our ability to seamlessly shift between growing regions and maintain consistent supply for our customers translated into robust per unit margins that exceeded our targeted range. This performance underscores the breadth of our sourcing network, which we believe is the most comprehensive in the industry, enabling us to provide reliable supply to our customers even during periods of disruption to key industry supply sources while at the same time maximizing our margin performance. We are particularly pleased with our cash flow generation for the full year of fiscal 2024 in which we delivered a $64.2 million increase in operating cash flow versus 2023. Our strong operational performance throughout the year, combined with the planned tapering of our heavy CapEx cycle over the past several years, has resulted in strong free cash flow that has strengthened our capital structure through reduced leverage, further enhancing our flexibility.

While some capital projects, including our packing house construction in Guatemala and certain blueberry investments, will shift into early fiscal 2025 due to timing of vendor payments and blueberry plant development, our overall trajectory of moderating capital spending remains intact as we complete these remaining projects and focus on optimizing returns from our existing asset base. While our Marketing and Distribution segment performance was the highlight of the quarter, our International Farming segment faced a more challenging set of circumstances related to the El Nino weather cycle and its associated impact on our owned volume. We've taken proactive steps to ensure the long-term health and productivity of our orchards and are encouraged by early signs of improvement we are seeing. Combined with the cost optimization efforts we implemented, we expect to translate these into improved operational efficiencies as growing conditions normalize in fiscal 2025.

Turning now to our blueberries segment, the harvest season ramped up during the fourth quarter and we benefited from pricing that proved to be more resilient than we expected at the higher levels of volume. While pricing has since moderated, we remain committed to growing this segment of our business as we see significant opportunities ahead. The blueberry business continues to complement our existing offerings and aligns perfectly with the strategy of delivering high-quality differentiated products across multiple growing regions. We look forward to advancing our planned projects in this category as we move through fiscal 2025 and beyond with the support of our strategic joint venture partner. While still in its infancy, I am also pleased to report that our strategic investment in Guatemala continues to progress. In November, the USDA approved Guatemalan avocado imports into the United States, a significant milestone that validates our expansion strategy in the region.

Similar to our approach with other sourced regions, the goal with Guatemala is to fill voids in the calendar to reliably supply customers year-round. We look forward to the additional flexibility that the USDA approval affords us, which we expect to further strengthen our competitive position in the years to come. Further on the topic of our facility work, we took actions in the fourth quarter to optimize our distribution footprint and enhance our efficiency. As part of this effort, we will be winding down our Toronto and Calgary facilities through the first quarter of fiscal 2025. We will be able to maintain the same high level of customer service while eliminating redundant costs in our system. This decision reflects the flexibility and efficiency that we have built into our North American distribution network over the years. In closing, I want to thank our team for their outstanding execution throughout fiscal 2024.

Their hard work and dedication enabled us to successfully navigate dynamic market conditions while driving meaningful growth and operational improvements. As we look ahead to fiscal 2025, we're confident in our competitive positioning. Our global sourcing network continues to be a key differentiator, providing us with the flexibility to meet customer demand regardless of regional supply dynamics. Combined with our strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to capital allocation, we believe we're well-positioned to continue creating value for our shareholders. With that, I'll pass the call over to our CFO, Bryan Giles for his financial commentary.

Bryan GilesCFO

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. I'll start with a review of our fiscal fourth quarter financial performance, touching on some of the key drivers within our three reportable segments. Then I'll provide an update on our financial position and conclude with some thoughts on the current market conditions that we are seeing. Total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 increased 37% to $354.4 million driven primarily by a 36% increase in avocado sales prices. Higher prices resulted from constrained avocado supply during the quarter, driven by weather impacts on fruit development and production in Peru combined with stronger consumer demand. Despite lower Peruvian volumes, we were able to leverage our diverse sourcing network across California, Colombia, and Mexico to drive a 9% increase in North American avocado sales volumes compared to the prior year. Amidst the supply challenges we faced, we made a strategic decision to prioritize the North American market where strong consumer demand, supported by retail promotional activity, translated to higher per-unit price points.

Gross profit increased by $28 million to $55.8 million in the fourth quarter and gross profit margin increased 490 basis points to 15.7% of revenue. These increases were primarily driven by stronger per-unit margins on avocados sold during the period. We can further attribute these increases to the combination of a favorable mix of source fruit and internal initiatives that Steve spoke to earlier. Our blueberry segment also contributed to the increase with higher volumes, while per-unit margins remained generally consistent with the prior year. SG&A expense increased $6.6 million or 32% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to higher employee-related costs including performance-based incentive compensation and stock-based compensation expense as a result of our improved operating performance relative to the prior year period. Adjusted net income for the quarter was $19.6 million or $0.28 per diluted share compared to an adjusted net income of $7.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share last year.

Adjusted EBITDA increased $19.6 million or 113% to $36.9 million as compared to $17.3 million last year. This improvement was driven primarily by the stronger gross profit performance from our Marketing and Distribution and Blueberry segments. Turning now to our segments. Our Marketing and Distribution segment net sales increased 35% to $319.6 million for the quarter, primarily driven by the avocado pricing increases I described previously. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased $14.8 million to $25.6 million as a result of the higher per-unit gross margins we discussed. Total segment sales and adjusted EBITDA in our International Farming segment were $30.3 million and $2.7 million respectively, compared to $40.3 million and $1.1 million in the same period last year. While we experienced a decrease in segment sales due to the previously disclosed reduction in volume from our own farms as a result of the unfavorable El Nino weather conditions during the harvest set in Peru, we were pleased to generate positive adjusted EBITDA that was higher than the prior year period.

The improved profitability correlated to the strong pricing environment within which we worked diligently to maximize sales returns with our U.S. market focus and the cost containment efforts we implemented near the end of the prior harvest season. In our blueberry segment, activity is typically concentrated in the first and fourth quarters of our fiscal year in alignment with the Peruvian blueberry harvest season. Net sales in the blueberry segment totaled $31.6 million compared to $19.5 million in the prior year period, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.6 million from $5.4 million in the prior year period. The increases in both sales and adjusted EBITDA were driven by higher blueberry volumes sold during the quarter that resulted from both new plantings coming into production as well as yield improvements on existing plantings following the challenging weather conditions experienced in the prior year.

Shifting to our financial position, cash and cash equivalents were $58 million as of October 31, 2024 compared to $42.9 million at October 31, 2023. We are very pleased with our operating cash flow performance in fiscal 2024, which increased $64.2 million versus the prior year to $93.4 million for the fiscal year ended October 31. The growth in operating cash flow was primarily driven by improved operating performance during fiscal 2024. Further supporting the improvement in operating cash flow was favorable working capital management. While higher avocado pricing drove increases in inventory and accounts receivable, these increases were more than offset by higher grower payable balances driven primarily by those same high prices and higher accounts payable and accrued expenses, the latter of which was significantly impacted by incentive compensation and statutory profit-sharing accruals in the current year.

In addition, higher accounts payable and accrued expenses were attributed to the impact of higher volume and increased acreage within our blueberries segment. Capital expenditures were $32.2 million for the 12 months ended October 31, 2024 compared to $49.8 million last year and were attributed to avocado and blueberry farming-related investments in Latin America as well as construction costs associated with expanding capacity at our UK distribution facility. During the fiscal year, the International Farming segment also began construction of a pack house in Guatemala. Of note, our CapEx spending in fiscal 2024 was approximately $10 million less than we've contemplated in our outlook due to timing of vendor payments and blueberry plant development that will push this spending into fiscal 2025. As a result of this timing shift, our projected CapEx budget for fiscal 2025 is expected in the range of $50 million to $55 million allocated largely to the International Farming and Blueberry segments.

However, our overall trajectory of moderating capital spending remains intact as we complete these remaining projects through fiscal 2026 and focus on optimizing returns from our existing asset base. To that end, we remain committed to driving free cash flow as a means toward maintaining a healthy capital structure. We are proud to have generated approximately $60 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2024. Looking ahead, we believe the business is well-positioned to continue generating meaningful free cash flow in the years ahead. Debt paydown remains our near-term priority, and we expect to continue to strengthen our balance sheet next year. In regards to our near-term outlook on the fundamental drivers of our operations, we are providing some context around our expectations for industry conditions to help inform your modeling assumptions. Beginning with avocados, with the conclusion of the California and Peru harvest seasons, we have transitioned to a Mexico-centric source model.

We expect industry volumes in our fiscal 2025 first quarter to be consistent with the prior year period. While supply from Mexico has been constrained during the early part of the quarter due to fruit maturity and sizing, we expect industry volumes to ramp up when we move to the latter portion of the quarter as we expect a larger Mexican harvest season. Pricing is expected to be higher on a year-over-year basis by approximately 20% compared to the $1.40 per pound average experienced in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, indicative of continued strength in demand. Pricing assumptions are closely tied to the volume estimates previously mentioned. As the industry transitions to Mexico being the primary country of origin for supply and supply becomes more readily available, we are expecting that per unit margins on purchased avocados will revert to our historical targeted ranges from the elevated levels that we experienced during our fiscal 2024 third and fourth quarters.

Our blueberry harvest season in Peru will peak during the first quarter. We expect to see meaningful volume increases from owned farms resulting from yield improvements and new acreage and production, but the impact on revenue is expected to be offset by lower average sales prices due to higher overall industry volumes from Peru. Pricing is expected to be approximately 30% lower on a year-over-year basis, which will negatively impact segment adjusted EBITDA during the quarter as compared to the previous year when weather-related supply constraints led to abnormally high sales prices. In closing, we're incredibly proud of the progress we've made this year. We've demonstrated our industry leadership in a turbulent environment while delivering some of the strongest financial performances in our history as a public company, further underscored by robust free cash flow generation. These achievements have laid a very strong foundation for Mission's future, and we're excited to continue executing on our growth strategy. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, now over to you. Please open the call to Q&A.

Questions and answers

OperatorOperator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from Ben Klieve from Lake Street Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions and congratulations. Great end to a great year here. My first question is the result in the quarter relative to the pre-release information. Your both revenue and EBITDA comfortably exceeded what you had laid out on the pre-release five or six weeks ago. I'm just wondering what the delta was in the actual results versus what you saw in the pre-release.

Bryan GilesCFO

Yes. Sure thing, Ben. We certainly wanted to get out in front of it. We knew that some of the data that was out on the Street was well below where we expected the quarter to track to. We certainly didn't have all of our information closed out at the point in time when we put this release together. I would say, we were bullish on our Marketing Distribution segment and where pricing and per-unit margins were, even though we did not yet have everything finalized. And that is certainly where why we set a floor and we knew that there was some room to be a little bit better than those figures. I think the biggest delta that we saw though was really in our farming and blueberry segments. We really had not pulled the closing information together from either of those areas yet. It does take us a little bit longer to extract that data from our systems. So, I'd say the biggest delta where the volume sold through on blueberries, not harvested, but actually sold through were a little higher than we expected. And the average selling prices that we realized held up better than we'd originally thought they would. We knew as we were transitioned towards Q1 that blueberry prices were beginning to decline. So, we factored in some conservatism into what we thought pricing was going to look like. But in reality, through the end of October, that pricing held up better than we'd expected.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. A couple of others for me. So first of all, Steve, you noted winding down a couple of facilities here in this current fiscal quarter. I'm wondering if you can comment at all on any costs associated with this, both cash or non-cash costs?

Stephen BarnardCEO

Well, those two facilities I mentioned were not running at a profit and there are ways to provide the same service level that we were providing with a lot less cost by just going direct from other facilities either at the border or somewhere out throughout the United States into Canada. So, we put those in there several years ago for a specific customer, and they started buying more and more direct, a lot of it from us. I mean, we didn't lose the customer, but they were wanting to go direct from the border, not have it ripen. They were going to ripen it themselves. So, it just kind of outgrew its purpose.

Bryan GilesCFO

Yeah. In terms of the cost spend, I would just say that certainly we have some assets there in those facilities that aren't fully amortized or depreciated yet. But most of our leases have due to expire in the next one to two years. So, they were close to their end date. So, there's a tail on some fixed assets. There's a tail on some lease payments that we have left to go. Then there's also potentially some asset retirement-related obligations, a minimal amount of severance when all said and done. The facilities weren't staffed. We had maybe 12 people within those facilities. So, they weren't it shouldn't we're not expecting this to have a significant impact when all said and done. But we do think that longer-term, it will generate some meaningful cost savings for us. To Steve's point, the facilities there were not enough volume moving through those facilities to enable them to operate efficiently. The Canadian market simply has changed over the last decade. It's not what it was when we first opened our facilities in Toronto back in the first, 2007, 2008 timeframe. And certainly, we've had to it's taken us time to adapt to the changing market conditions up there. We think long-term this is the right choice for us.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Okay. Yes, that definitely makes sense. Both your comments on the International Farming segment seemed pretty encouraging. I'm wondering if you can discuss the big picture regarding the EBITDA expectations coming from that segment, particularly if you expect the directional improvement seen in 2024 to continue into 2025, considering the stabilizing weather conditions and the operational efficiency improvements you have made down there.

Stephen BarnardCEO

I'll refer to Bryan on the numbers.

Bryan GilesCFO

At a high level, things are moving in the right direction. We made some changes in 2024 related to the cost structures within the farms that will continue to benefit us moving forward. We expect market conditions to differ next year compared to 2024. With the weather changes in Peru, the El Nino effect subsided in May of this year. As weather conditions improve, we anticipate a larger crop next year, not only from Peru but across many of our source regions. We are looking forward to a year of higher volumes and a decline in pricing from the highs of this year, especially as we increase our engagement with international markets. Overall, we are optimistic about the direction of farming. Reflecting back, we've experienced a couple of challenging years. The EBITDA for 2023 and 2024 has not met our expectations. In 2022, our EBITDA was around $23 million, and in 2021, it exceeded $30 million. We firmly believe that the farming segment can return to those levels in the near future as volumes increase and we continue to reopen markets for our fruit.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Got it.

Stephen BarnardCEO

We've experienced an El Nino event a year or two ago that affected those trees for about a year, leading to a decline in both the size and quality of the crop due to the hot and wet conditions. We've moved past that challenge, and it typically occurs every 10 years, so we hope not to face it again for another decade.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Very good. All right. Well, fingers crossed up here. So, one more for me and then I'll get back in queue. Just a big picture macro question. Given how much you are involved in the import-export world, how you're thinking about kind of the future of agricultural exports into the U.S., particularly from Mexico in the context of potential tariffs? Is there just a dynamic that's changing at all how you think about operating your supply chain, or are you really just sitting back and waiting to see kind of how it all shakes out?

Stephen BarnardCEO

Well, I think on Trump's behalf, I think that's a ploy to get them to the table to negotiate help with the immigrant problem. Whether he pulls a trigger on the tariff or not, I don't know. I hope not. But obviously, it'll raise costs, probably slow consumption down a little bit. Who knows? Consumption keeps growing. And if you look at the overall category, volume goes up and pricing has gone up. So even if it leveled off, we'd be in pretty good shape. So, I'm not too worried about it really.

John PawlowskiPresident & COO

This is John Pawlowski. I want to add to Steve's comments that the historical capabilities of the team at Mission have shown that disruptions, price changes, inflation, and challenges in product transportation have always been part of the business. Over the past 12 months, this team has demonstrated their ability to execute well during difficult times. Therefore, if any challenges arise, this team is fully prepared. Additionally, as Steve mentioned, we have observed significant consumer resilience during both inflationary periods and supply challenges. Consumers are purchasing more and at higher prices than ever before. With these factors combined, I believe Mission is well-positioned regardless of any developments related to tariffs.

Stephen BarnardCEO

I think that's directly focused at Mexico too; I don't think he's going to put a tariff on Peru or Colombia or Guatemala, I hope.

Ben KlieveAnalyst

Got you. Very good. All right. Well, I appreciate that context from you both. Congratulations again on a really great quarter, really great year, and I'll get back in queue.

Stephen BarnardCEO

Okay. Thanks, Ben.

Bryan GilesCFO

Thanks, Ben.

OperatorOperator

Next question is from Gerry Sweeney from ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my call.

Bryan GilesCFO

Sure, thanks Gerry.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Just to follow-up on Ben's question and then the answer. But it seems like consumers have maybe for lack of a better phrase, busted through the price barrier and seem more consistent at higher prices than maybe a couple of years ago. Is that fair to say, especially with this past year's results?

John PawlowskiPresident & COO

Yeah. We're seeing two macro trends that are driving that, Gerry, this is John. The first one, I think you'll hear consistently across anyone in the grocery sector and that is exactly what you just said. There's been inflationary pressure over the last 18 months and you're starting to reach points where the consumer has adapted to that. The second piece, more specific to our kind of slice of the pie in regards to the produce section is we're seeing a lot of younger consumers enter the marketplace. You've got people that are 18 to 30 that are picking up more avocado consumption. And those consumers, as they enter the marketplace, they're making up a much bigger portion of our shopper base. They are much more resilient than the traditional baby boomers have proven to be in the past.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Got it. Does this mean moving forward that retail can keep prices elevated, make more money and maybe help and does that trickle through to the Missions furthermore?

John PawlowskiPresident & COO

The relationship between price and cost is always a complicated issue. We expect to see more stability in margins from the retail side, which were at 24%.

Bryan GilesCFO

Yes. I mean, Gerry, I think it's all in relative terms where pricing is going to sit. There's going to be a supply of volume available, and prices need to ultimately be set at a level that enables the market to consume that supply. Do I think at comparable levels, I think the price points will settle in higher than where they were in the past two, three, four years ago? But I think as we look to this coming year, if volumes were to increase 10%, 15% across all countries of origin, I would think that that is going to bring pricing down somewhat with that much of a volume increase. But again, it will be a more resilient price than it would have been two, three, four years ago.

Stephen BarnardCEO

It will still be good. They're pretty high to start with.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Yeah. I got it. Just curious, it feels like prices the last 50 is coming back or something like that.

Bryan GilesCFO

So, I would say there were definitely times, I mean where that $0.99 per piece barrier was kind of an indicator of when demand would start to taper in. That doesn't seem to be the threshold or the limit any longer. I mean, price points it would be $1.90, $1.25, $1.49, we're not seeing that having a negative impact on pull through any longer. So, yeah, I think inflation, it's taken a few years, I think for maybe the consumer to adapt to paying higher prices, but it feels like it's finally kind of come through our category in this last year.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Got it. Switching gears to blueberries. I mean blueberries are great, but you also noted, I think increased plantings. How many more acres this year than last year and two years ago? And then what is the plan for the blueberries for the next couple of years going forward?

Stephen BarnardCEO

So, in production, you're talking about or planning?

Bryan GilesCFO

Blueberries have a relatively quick turnaround, usually reaching a productive state within a year, unlike avocado trees which can take four to five years. This year, we expanded an additional 100 hectares and plan to incorporate at least another 100 hectares with some double-density planting in the first year. In total, we expect to have nearly 200 hectares ready for the next harvest season, which will span Q4 of 2025 into Q1 of 2026. Prior to this, we had around 500 hectares in production with another 200 hectares under development. By the end of the project, we will nearly double our blueberry plantings, with many of these new plantings consisting of more desirable varieties. We believe these varieties will help to achieve higher average selling prices compared to more generic options grown in the country. We're excited about the opportunities ahead and are focused on extending the harvest season to avoid oversaturating the market at particular times. Additionally, we aim to produce high-quality fruit from these premium varieties to secure above-average returns.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Got it. The balance sheet is in good shape. You mentioned cash flow, and over the next couple of years, we expect strong cash flow while managing debt effectively. I’m curious about what comes next. Are we considering increasing some plantings, or do you have any insights on that?

Bryan GilesCFO

I think our plan has remained consistent over the years. We expected that after experiencing a couple of years with depressed operating cash, the results we saw in 2024 aligned more closely with our long-term expectations for this business. Capital has continued to decrease, and it seems this year saw a slightly larger drop than it actually did due to timing issues. However, it remains significantly lower than the figures from the past three or four years, and we anticipate this trend will persist. So, we expect to generate substantial cash flow. Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, our main focus will still be on reducing debt. Beyond that, we will be well-positioned to improve our balance sheet, which will allow us to explore other opportunities for that cash, including the possibility of returning value to shareholders in some form.

Gerry SweeneyAnalyst

Yeah, got it. Okay. Well, congratulations on a great year. I appreciate it.

Stephen BarnardCEO

Hey, thank you, Gerry. Thanks, Gerry.

OperatorOperator

This concludes the question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back to management for any closing comments.

Stephen BarnardCEO

Thank you for your interest in Mission Produce, and we look forward to talking to you again.

OperatorOperator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

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