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AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP INC (AFGD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

45 segments

Prepared remarks

Diane P. WeidnerVice President of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to American Financial Group's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call. We released our results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call. I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group; and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO. Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to the notes on Slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website.

We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or in responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release. And finally, if you're reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy. And as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements. Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Good morning. I'll begin by sharing a few highlights of AFG's 2025 second quarter results, after which Craig and I will walk through more details. We'll then open it up for Q&A, where Craig, Brian, and I will be happy to respond to your questions. We're pleased to report an annualized core operating return on equity of 15.5% despite quarterly returns from alternative investments that tempered overall results. Underwriting margins in our Specialty Property & Casualty insurance businesses were strong, and higher interest rates increased net investment income, excluding alternatives, by 10% year-over-year. In addition, we returned over $100 million to our shareholders during the second quarter of 2025 through a combination of regular dividends and share repurchases. Our compelling mix of specialty insurance businesses, entrepreneurial culture, disciplined operating philosophy, and an astute team of in-house investment professionals continue to serve us well in environments such as these and position us for long-term success. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our great employees for helping us to achieve these results. I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through some of these details.

Stephen Craig LindnerCo-CEO

Thanks, Carl. Please turn to Slides 3 and 4 for second quarter highlights. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.14 per share compared to $2.56 per share in the prior year-end period. Our 2025 results reflect a year-over-year decrease in underwriting profit and lower returns on alternative investments. I'll begin with an overview of AFG's investment performance and share a few comments about AFG's financial position, capital, and liquidity. The detail of surrounding our $16 billion portfolio were presented on Slides 5 and 6. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income at our property and casualty insurance operations for the 3 months ended June 30, 2025, increased 10% year-over-year as a result of higher interest rates and higher balances of invested assets. As you'll see on Slide 6, approximately two-thirds of our portfolio is invested in fixed maturities.

In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.75%, which compare favorably to the 5.2% yield earned on fixed maturities at our P&C portfolio during the second quarter of 2025. The duration of our P&C fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 2.8 years at June 30, 2025. The annualized return on alternative investments in our P&C portfolio was approximately 1.2% for the 2025 second quarter compared to 5.1% for the prior year quarter. As a result, overall P&C net investment income was approximately 5% lower than the comparable 2024 period. The impact on rental rates and occupancy from a surge in new apartment supply in certain otherwise strong markets reduced the fair value of some multifamily investments. This tempered the performance of our alternative investment portfolio in the second quarter of 2025 by nearly $30 million.

Although substantial supply persists, new construction starts have plummeted. We expect current inventory to be absorbed over the next 12 months. Notably, multifamily starts were down approximately 20% year-over-year and down nearly 50% from their 2022 peaks. The combination of tightening supply and a significantly reduced development pipeline is forecast to drive higher rental and occupancy rates over the next several years and should result in stronger returns on our multifamily investments. Longer term, we continue to remain optimistic regarding the prospects of attractive returns from our overall alternative investment portfolio with an expectation of annual returns averaging 10% or better. Please turn to Slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at June 30, 2025. During the quarter, we returned over $100 million to our shareholders, including $39 million in share repurchases and our $0.80 per share regular quarterly dividend.

We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2025, which provides ample opportunity for acquisitions, special dividends, or share repurchases. We evaluate the best alternatives for capital deployment on a regular basis. We continue to view total value creation as measured by growth in book value plus dividends as an important measure of performance over the long term. For the 6 months ended June 30, 2025, AFG's growth in book value per share, excluding AOCI plus dividends, was 6%. Our strong operating results, coupled with effective capital management at our entrepreneurial opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy enable us to continue to create value for our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Thank you, Craig. Please turn to Slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our second quarter results. Overall, underwriting profitability was strong in our Specialty P&C businesses in the second quarter of 2025 and we remain confident about the strength of our reserves. A continued favorable pricing environment, increased exposures, and new business opportunities enabled us to grow our Specialty Property & Casualty businesses, and we continue to expect premium growth for the full year in 2025. Looking at a few details, you'll see on Slide 8 that our Specialty Property & Casualty Insurance businesses generated a 93.1% combined ratio in the second quarter of 2025, 2.6 points higher than the 90.5% reported in the second quarter of last year. Results for the 2025 second quarter include 2.3 points related to catastrophe losses consistent with results in the 2024 second quarter.

Second quarter 2025 results benefited from 0.7 point of favorable prior year reserve development compared to 2.3 points in the second quarter of 2024. Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums were up 10% and 7%, respectively, when compared to the second quarter of 2024. Earlier reporting of crop acreage by insureds impacted the timing of the recording of crop premiums and contributed to the year-over-year increase, particularly when compared to later reporting of acreage the previous year. So if you exclude the crop business, our gross and net written premiums grew 6% and 5%, respectively. Average renewal pricing across our Property & Casualty Group, excluding our workers' comp businesses, was up approximately 7% in the second quarter, consistent with pricing increases achieved in the first quarter, including workers' compensation, renewal rates were up approximately 6% overall, about 1 point higher than in the previous quarter.

We reported overall renewal rate increases for 36 consecutive quarters, and we believe we're achieving overall renewal rate increases in excess of prospective loss ratio trends to meet or exceed our targeted returns. Now I'd like to turn to Slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property & Casualty business groups. Details are included in our earnings release, so I'll focus on summary results here. The businesses in the Property & Transportation Group achieved a 95.2% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter of 2025, 2.5 points higher than the 92.7% reported in the comparable 2024 period. The second quarter 2025 combined ratio benefited from 2.2 points of favorable prior year reserve development compared to 6.3 points in the 2024 second quarter, particularly reflecting especially strong results for our crop business in the prior year period. Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums in this group were up 15% and 10% higher, respectively, than the comparable prior year.

As mentioned before, earlier reporting of crop acreage compared to 2024, which impacts the timing of crop premiums contributed to higher second quarter premiums in this group. Again, when you exclude the crop business, gross and net written premiums in this group grew by 6% and 5%, respectively. Increased exposures, new business opportunities, and a favorable rate environment contributed to our growth in our transportation businesses. Overall renewal rates in this group increased approximately 8% in the second quarter of 2025, a point higher than the pricing achieved in this group for the first quarter 2025. We continue to remain focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our commercial auto liability line of business where rates were up approximately 15% in the second quarter. In terms of our crop business, commodity futures pricing remains in acceptable ranges relative to spring discovery prices.

And based on the most recent crop progress reports, overall corn and soybean conditions are slightly better than last year at this time. We believe that there's been adequate moisture to date in those areas so that the excessive heat in recent weeks shouldn't be problematic. However, moisture levels through August and early September remain important. Now the businesses in our Specialty Casualty Group achieved a solid 93.9% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter, 4.8 points higher than the very strong 89.1% reported in the comparable period in 2024. Second quarter 2025 gross and net written premiums increased 4% and 2%, respectively when compared to the same prior year period. Higher year-over-year premiums in our mergers and acquisitions business and growth across a variety of other businesses in the group, resulting from new business opportunities, higher rates and strong policy retention were partially offset by lower premiums due to a challenging market in our Directors and Officers Liability business.

In addition, we continued to nonrenew certain housing and daycare accounts in our social services businesses. Excluding our workers' comp businesses, renewal rates for this group were up 8% in the second quarter. Pricing in this group, including workers' comp, was up about 6%. I'm pleased that we achieved renewal rate increases in the mid-teens in our most social inflation-exposed businesses, including our social services and excess liability businesses. The Specialty Financial group continued to achieve excellent underwriting margins and reported a combined ratio of 86.1% for the second quarter of 2025, 3.6 points better than the 89.7% reported in the comparable period in 2024. These results reflect higher year-over-year underwriting profitability in our financial institutions and surety businesses. Second quarter 2025 gross and written net premiums in this group were up 15%, 12%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period, due primarily to growth in our financial institutions business.

Renewal pricing in this group was flat in the second quarter. Craig and I are proud of our history of long-term value creation. We have years of experience navigating economic and insurance cycles. Our insurance professionals continue to exercise their Specialty Property and Casualty knowledge and expertise to successfully compete in a dynamic marketplace. Our in-house investment team has been both strategic and opportunistic in the management of our $16 billion investment portfolio. One of our greatest strengths is finding opportunities in times of uncertainty. We feel we're well positioned to continue to build long-term value for our shareholders for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. I will now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call. Craig, Brian, and I would be happy to respond to your questions.

Questions and answers

OperatorOperator

Our first question comes from Michael Zaremski at BMO Capital Markets.

Michael David ZaremskiAnalyst

My first question is about the lender-placed business within Specialty Financial. It seems to be contributing to the sustained growth we've seen this quarter. Could you provide some insights on how to consider the growth of that market? Does it correlate with mortgage delinquencies or the dynamics of a hard versus soft market? Additionally, could you elaborate on the possibility that you have gained some market share in that area?

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Thank you. The lender-placed property business has relatively few competitors. Currently, it generates around $700 million in gross written premium, making it a significant segment for us. This business tends to grow more during economic downturns, as more people struggle to keep up with their payments and insurance. It relies heavily on strong relationships with large financial institutions. Over the past couple of years, disruptions in the market have created opportunities for us as some competitors have struggled. Additionally, we've made considerable price adjustments in line with the property market this year. Another advantage for us has been the shift in our business model from insuring unpaid mortgage balances to focusing on replacement cost value, which many in the industry are adopting. As more of our clients transition to this approach, it improves the value we are providing in this sector. I hope this helps clarify our position in the business.

Michael David ZaremskiAnalyst

Carl, would the lender-placed also be excellent margins in the segment? Is that also what's driving the pricing power kind of to decel?

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Yes. I think this business is very profitable for us, again, made up of large accounts. I think pricing is in this business through six months is prices are up about 1%. The loss ratio trends are very low single digits in this business. And I think, again, the last thing I mentioned as far as a move from unpaid mortgage balance as a basis for premiums to move to replacement cost values. I think that helps offset the difference between the price increase and the loss ratio trend, if that makes sense.

Michael David ZaremskiAnalyst

Yes, that's helpful. My follow-up is about what I believe are some of the more socially inflation-related lines of business. You continue to mention some non-renewals in certain areas. I assume non-renewals are always happening, but you're highlighting them because they seem to be at a higher than normal level, which might be more than what AFG would typically expect. I understand that the benchmarks for loss cost inflation are always changing, but could you broadly discuss where AFG stands regarding remediation actions? Specifically, I would like to know how you feel about pricing compared to loss trends in commercial auto versus other sectors like housing and daycare. That's my final question.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Yes, that's a complex question given that we operate in 36 different businesses. In our nonprofit Specialty Human Services segment, which includes both housing and daycare accounts, we have largely completed the nonrenewal process for our housing accounts. A few quarters back, we noted a $50 million figure, with about $20 million of that related to housing. Now, we no longer provide property or liability insurance for low-income or affordable housing accounts. On the daycare side, we anticipate finishing the nonrenewal of around $9 million to $10 million in business by year-end, having started this early in the year. We continue to underwrite daycare for organizations like YMCAs, where certain agents have established books of business. However, a significant portion of our previously unprofitable daycare business will be nonrenewed by year-end. Additionally, we have been reducing our umbrella coverage from $15 million to $5 million and expect that by year-end, the remaining in-force umbrellas over $5 million will be eliminated.

These are the main activities in our nonprofit business, which has experienced more social inflation than many of our other sectors. Regarding the public sector, we've been increasing our retentions and taking rates, and we anticipate more opportunities in this area now that the cycle is concluding. In our excess liability business, we are still seeing mid double-digit price increases in several units. We're also adjusting limits downward and reassessing accounts with higher commercial auto liability exposure. In our Fortune 1000 business, we feel we are mostly through the process of readjusting our portfolio, which should lead to growth opportunities. While commercial auto business hasn't performed particularly well, we experienced healthy growth in the second quarter and continue to outperform the industry. We're working to achieve underwriting profit in commercial auto liability, and with the recent 15% price increase, we are starting to see more opportunities.

Additionally, we are aware of one managing general agent that may exit a segment of the commercial auto business, which could present us with an opportunity in the next six months. I hope this addresses the various topics you raised.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Gregory Peters at Raymond James.

Charles Gregory PetersAnalyst

I would like to focus on the Inland Marine, Ocean Marine, and trade credit businesses. I've heard from some specialty players that they are seeing growth opportunities in Inland Marine and Ocean Marine. My question is how your company is positioned for growth in that area. Additionally, marine cargo is linked to the trade credit business, involving both export and domestic trade. I'm interested in understanding how the current volatility and tariffs might impact that business until things stabilize.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Yes, we have a strong Ocean Marine business in the U.S. and Singapore. We're focused on Ocean Marine, and our property Inland Marine business is also doing well. We're looking to expand our Inland Marine coverages rather than just focusing on large property placements. Both areas have been beneficial for us. Ocean Marine has offered growth opportunities in recent years, and we are satisfied with that. However, on the property and Inland Marine side, there haven't been many opportunities in builders' risk lately, possibly due to current economic conditions and tariff activity. This may be limiting growth in our property Inland Marine business, as builders' risk and traditional Inland Marine products are our main focus. Historically, these businesses have been quite profitable for us. It's difficult to determine the exact impact of tariffs, but lower shipping and cargo transport volumes may affect both Ocean and Inland Marine. Currently, we aren't seeing significant effects, but the main concern is how the situation will evolve as tariffs are implemented across countries. That's my perspective at this time.

Charles Gregory PetersAnalyst

Would you say the same thing about the trade credit business too as it relates to tariffs?

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Actually, our trade credit business is growing. I think there's been a little bit of hardening in that market. It's a very, very small specialty business for us. But yes, I do think, depending on who gets what tariff and what country, it could have some impact, probably more on the premium side at some point. But right now, if anything, we're seeing some growth there.

Charles Gregory PetersAnalyst

I want to revisit some of your comments from your opening remarks, particularly regarding mergers and acquisitions. I'm curious if there has been a change in market conditions that has led to a larger pipeline now compared to a year or two ago. It seems like you are consistently active in this area, so your mention of it on the call makes me wonder if there's something developing. I would appreciate your insights on the M&A aspect, especially since you highlighted it in your remarks.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Sure. M&A is a $100 million type of business for us. It tends to be a bit volatile based on the M&A environment in this country. This year, there seems to be quite a bit of activity, whereas last year had a lower amount. Consequently, the business was smaller last year. However, this year we have seen a significant amount of activity, and our team of underwriters is very capable in this area. This sector has been profitable for us. Others have ventured into some riskier parts of this business that we have not pursued as much. We focus primarily on representations and warranties, tax indemnity, and credit insurance aspects. Our good reputation is built on our strong expertise and knowledge in this field.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Andrew Andersen at Jefferies.

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Yes, this is a question on behalf of Andrew. A crop peer indicated early on that 2025 could be very favorable for crop profitability. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned some positive indicators. Should we still consider this year as average, or is it too early to tell?

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

I believe it's still too soon for us to categorize this year as average or otherwise. However, looking at the commodity futures pricing, they are within acceptable ranges compared to the spring discovery prices. I didn’t check the final figures yesterday, but I think corn is down around 14% and soybeans are down slightly under 6%. The average deductible for farmers in our portfolio, excluding rainfall products, is projected to be about 20.5% this year. Losses or a combination of declining commodity prices and losses must exceed that deductible, which is the first line of defense for farmers. Recent crop progress reports show that overall corn and soybean conditions are slightly better than last year. There are concerns about excessive heat, but adequate moisture to date suggests it hasn’t become an issue yet. It’s crucial that moisture levels remain good through August and early September. Additionally, as part of the Big Beautiful Bill, there has been an increase in loss adjustment expense payments in states with over a 120% loss ratio. The adjustment has moved from 1.5% to 6%, which is a positive change in the program. While there are always small negative adjustments to programs, over time, there tend to be more positive developments. The Farm Bill has, I believe, been extended through September of this year.

Unidentified AnalystAnalyst

Okay. And then just pivoting, I think your workers' comp book is slightly skewed to specialty workers' comp. So just curious how the pricing environment is in that end of the market. And if you expect any positive momentum on the workers' comp front? And also I think California is the largest state for workers' comp for you. So just curious if you're seeing any different loss experience there.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

California constitutes about 15% of our workers' compensation business, and I believe Florida, being a larger state, likely holds more weight. Workers' compensation represents roughly 13.5% of our total gross written premium. Our overall results for the second quarter and the first six months have been excellent, although the combined rate for the first half of the year is slightly higher than last year. Our National Interstate, which deals with transportation-related workers' compensation, and our Southeastern-based Summit and strategic comp, which focuses on large deductibles, have all shown positive underwriting results this calendar and accident year. However, Republic, our California workers' compensation division, did report an underwriting loss in the second quarter. We are confident in our strong reserve position. Regarding pricing, I believe that was your primary question. I’m encouraged to see a moderating price trend in workers' compensation.

Overall pricing in this sector only decreased by about 1% in the second quarter and over the first half of the year. In Florida, which is our largest market, the 1% reduction that took effect in January was the smallest decrease in seven years. Conversely, California experienced a 5% price increase in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date pricing up to a 1% increase. More significantly, California has approved an 8.7% increase effective September 1, 2025, marking the first price hike in a decade, which is much needed considering that the combined ratio for the industry is in the 120s. We typically perform better than the industry average despite facing a more moderate underwriting loss. Overall, I like the current trends in the workers' compensation pricing environment, although it remains competitive. It certainly feels like a firming market is approaching, especially in California.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields at Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

Meyer ShieldsAnalyst

Carl, I was hoping if you could dig a little bit deeper into what you're seeing in terms of pricing and rate adequacy and professional lines. I'm asking because you sounded somewhat cautious, and we've heard a couple of other carriers talk about maybe green shoots are bottoming. And I just want to get your perspective on that, please.

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

Sure. From an overall macro perspective, we had good results in the second quarter and the first half for our Directors and Officers business, as well as our banking-related D&O product business, which is significant for us at $400 million. If you factor in the other professional liability business we handle, it exceeds $500 million. Net written premiums decreased in the second quarter and the first half of the year. The public company business remains competitive, but I am encouraged to see that the prices in this sector only fell by 1.6% in the second quarter. Looking at our overall D&O executive liability businesses, our rates were flat in the second quarter and year-to-date 2025, which aligns with our expectations for the entire year. I am very pleased to see public company pricing stabilizing somewhat. However, it's worth noting that public D&O comprises only 15% of our D&O premium, making us more opportunistic in that area. In terms of our ABIS and related D&O products, pricing increased by approximately 4% during the first half of this year. While public D&O remains competitive, there are clear signs of stabilization, especially concerning primary policies. I hope that provides some clarity.

Meyer ShieldsAnalyst

It is very much so. And I just want to confirm because I'm trying to get my head around the impact of the earlier crop reporting. Should we think of some portion of the premium losses and related expenses that showed up last year in the third quarter as moving to the second quarter this year? Is that how that plays out?

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

This is Brian. We'll start with the premium side. For the full year, we expect crop premiums to be slightly lower than last year due to lower commodity prices during the discovery period. However, the earlier planting and early reporting of acreage in the second quarter is offsetting that. We estimate that the shift in premiums is about $100 million gross and $40 million net when looking quarter-over-quarter. This means that some of the premium that would have been reported in the third quarter is now reported in the second quarter due to advanced reporting. To understand the quarter-over-quarter impact, $40 million in net written premium reflects that shift. On the profitability side, our crop business typically shows close to zero profits in the second quarter. The only profit that might be reported in this period comes from developments from prior periods since the majority of our crops are still planted. We generally report most profitability in the fourth quarter, with a little in the third, and it may carry over into the next year. Therefore, when you look at our numbers, our combined ratio in the crop segment would be around $100 million in the second quarter. If it's profitable, that would improve our combined ratio in the fourth quarter, all else equal. So, while there is no significant impact on profits, there is an effect on written premiums.

Meyer ShieldsAnalyst

Okay. That's helpful. But just take it one step for this. That means that whatever the earned premium component of that $40 million that's producing a higher combined ratio than the rest of Property and Transportation, that's moved from the third quarter to the second quarter. So there's a little bit less of that 100% combined ratio earned premium in the third quarter. That's what I'm trying to get at like...

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

And that's a little tricky because in some of our earlier season products, which generated more earnings in the first half of the year, we did experience some growth and changes in how much we've ceded. Therefore, the earned premium is higher for various reasons in the second quarter. I would say the main factor for profit recognition will depend on the weather in the upcoming months and whether that pushes us above average or keeps us around average. As Carl mentioned, the conditions appear favorable, but we prefer not to make any premature claims.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Bob Farnam at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Robert Edward FarnamAnalyst

I have a follow-up question about workers' compensation. I've received inquiries regarding undocumented workers and their potential impact on the types of classes you write. Specifically, have you noticed or do you anticipate any changes in claim patterns as undocumented workers are replaced by citizens or documented workers? The assumption is that undocumented workers may be less likely to file workers' comp claims due to concerns about their immigration status.

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

This is Brian. When we provide insurance for companies, we cover all their workers, regardless of their immigration status, and we will honor any claims submitted. If you're inquiring whether the transition from undocumented to documented workers will affect us, we haven't observed any changes so far. We will continue to pay all claims owed and collect appropriate premiums based on the current payroll, whether the workers are documented or undocumented.

Robert Edward FarnamAnalyst

Yes, the question was whether undocumented workers don't file claims because they're concerned about it. Are you expecting an increase in reported claims as those workers get replaced by documented workers? That was the question.

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

Yes. At the moment, we're not expecting that, but it's obviously something we'll keep an eye on as we price our business and set reserves going forward.

Robert Edward FarnamAnalyst

Okay. And so I also have some questions on the excess liability business. You've had modest adverse development over the last several quarters. Is that related to any particular accident years or particular lines of business or classes of business? I'm just kind of curious if what you saw this quarter? Is it similar to what you saw in for most of last year and in the first quarter of this year?

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

This is Brian. First, it's important to note that our reserves are developing positively, with $11 million in net favorable development this quarter. In the Casualty Group, we experienced $10 million in adverse development, primarily due to increased severity in sectors affected by social inflation, especially in the excess and surplus lines and our nonprofit social services. In those areas, we observed a rise in settlements, prompting adjustments to our case reserves for known claims, along with an increase in our IBNR for similar potential liabilities. Claims in businesses exposed to social inflation can vary considerably, and the adverse development spans multiple accident years rather than being concentrated in a single year. We've also prudently increased some of our current accident year estimates for similar reasons. We are continuously learning from these developments and adjusting both our loss estimates and pricing in real-time to maintain or enhance our strong results.

Robert Edward FarnamAnalyst

Right. Okay. Do you write the primary layers on that excess liability book? Or is that third parties that write the primary layers?

Brian Scott HertzmanCFO

Where we're seeing the adverse development is mostly coming out of the ones where we are writing the excess layers.

OperatorOperator

Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski at BMO Capital Markets.

Michael David ZaremskiAnalyst

My question is on the previous $10.50 '25 guide. Obviously, the Street is lower due partially to the first quarter investment returns. I guess my question is focused on the maybe the year-to-date reserve releases of about 1 point down 65% approximately year-over-year. Still obviously a very good guide, releases, great to see. Would you be able to share whether that reserve release ratio is better or worse in line with what you had contemplated when putting that guide together, the $10.50 guide?

Carl Henry LindnerCo-CEO

With so many different lines of business and products, it's really hard to say. I think if you remember, we talked about when we gave our business plan assumptions at the beginning of the year, we did talk about an expectation of lower levels of favorable development. Now all the reasons behind that ended up not necessarily being exactly what we thought in the beginning. But we did anticipate and I think, hopefully did share that we thought that some of the favorable development we would have been seeing would diminish a bit, and that we're optimistic about improvements in the accident year ex-cat loss ratio, which we did see improvements other than where we were more prudent on some of the social inflation exposed businesses. So I think overall, it's pretty much in line with what we were expecting but not necessarily business unit by business unit, but within a range, I'd say, yes.

OperatorOperator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Diane for closing remarks.

Diane P. WeidnerVice President of Investor Relations

Thank you all for joining us this morning and for the great discussion and good questions. We look forward to talking with you all next quarter when we share results for the third quarter. I hope you have a great day.

OperatorOperator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

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